Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.

[JustinVerlander07]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

Ill-conceived narratives: he’s fat and unathletic; he’s all bat, no defense; he’s overrated because he wasn’t elite at 20.

He’s won a Gold Glove and plays some third base. I’m not saying he’s Adrian Beltre, but he gets the job done in the field, and he makes plays—diving stops, over-the-shoulder catches, full splits on errant throws.

But I’m a person who thinks the position argument is vastly over-emphasized. A lineup is a puzzle that doesn’t require all of your playmaking to come from one key position. Give me bats, and my team will score runs. Give me JP Crawford and Patrick Bailey, and my defense will hold its own.

The only question with Vlad’s contract is how he’ll age. A Miggy/Pujols falloff is certainly possible. But then Frank Thomas lasted for a while. Either way, he’s the face of the franchise, which has tremendous value. If he can lead them to one World Series, or if they can be competitive for a window of five or eight or ten years, then, it’ll be worth dealing with his declining years—when, hopefully he’ll be pursuing a milestone or two.


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Where did I say he was fat or unathletic? You can say he gets the job done all you want in the field, but his defensive numbers indicate he's a below average defender at one of the easiest defenisve positions. It's not great.

He played 100 innings at 3rd base last year and 4 innings combined from 21-23. Doesn't seem like a great argument from your side. I get it, you're a fan, but just be realistic. These same things were said about Miguel Cabrera, except he was one of the best right handed bats of all-time. Vlad Jr has yet to earn that benefit of the doubt.

Also, I don't think he's overrated because he wasn't elite at 20, it's because he's still not an elite hitter and has zero defensive upside to make up for that. He's had 2 elite seasons. Perhaps you should stop putting words into peoples mouths with your attempt to use the word narrative!

[JRX]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

Ill-conceived narratives: he’s fat and unathletic; he’s all bat, no defense; he’s overrated because he wasn’t elite at 20.

He’s won a Gold Glove and plays some third base. I’m not saying he’s Adrian Beltre, but he gets the job done in the field, and he makes plays—diving stops, over-the-shoulder catches, full splits on errant throws.

But I’m a person who thinks the position argument is vastly over-emphasized. A lineup is a puzzle that doesn’t require all of your playmaking to come from one key position. Give me bats, and my team will score runs. Give me JP Crawford and Patrick Bailey, and my defense will hold its own.

The only question with Vlad’s contract is how he’ll age. A Miggy/Pujols falloff is certainly possible. But then Frank Thomas lasted for a while. Either way, he’s the face of the franchise, which has tremendous value. If he can lead them to one World Series, or if they can be competitive for a window of five or eight or ten years, then, it’ll be worth dealing with his declining years—when, hopefully he’ll be pursuing a milestone or two.


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He was next to last in Outs Above Avg for 1B last year..........that's bad. Once again, gold gloves are a popularity contest among writers who for the most part never have played baseball.

[Brady7799]

by age 33 there aren't many 1b that earn their worth other than Freeman today. certainly, the prime years start to erode by then so you can extend that prediction to every 1b currently playing.

6 1b qualified at bats in 2024 and Salvy Perez was the next best option after Freeman with a group of three (Perez, Carlos Santana, Walker) that racked up 3 or more WAR. Goldy had a great year at age 34 but he's also clearly on the way down.

not to say that he's the next HOF 1b but the careers of Miggy, Albert, and even The Big Hurt all started to see noticeable declines in production at that magic age.

surely, mlb teams are aware of this just like us humble forum posters are?

the real question becomes, why do teams continue to pay well past a player's prime? we're talking potentially half of Vladdy's contract not matching his pay.

he's the face of the franchise. in the modern game of free agency, is there worth for a franchise type player to spend his entire career in one jersey? maybe not to modern fans but i grew up to players like Larkin, Ripken, Ozzie (funny, all shortstops) off the top of my head that all played a full career wearing one jersey.

the Jays were reeling with rejections for every big time free agent they tried to sign. this is not lost on the fanbase here in Toronto. signing Vlad might hurt down the line but they badly needed a win to keep selling seats and Rogers to maintain their nationwide viewership. resigning a homegrown talent to play out his career in the city is probably viewed as a win.

Atkins cannot let Vlad walk away for a compensation pick. nor can he continue to play the chicken game to lock him in at a value contract. he probably couldn't buy out his arb years like some teams are apt to do because Vlad isn't risking money when he's already royalty back home. same reason, i'll wager, why Bo didn't get bought out earlier. they don't come from poorer backgrounds so they can both bet on themselves more than say the Acunas and Campbells of the world.

with the way the team is being run, Vladdy won't likely see his dream of giving his pops a ring happen anytime soon. what will they build around him? a roster full of aging vets and farm system almost barren of talent.

is he $500 million good? who knows. what makes him worth it? MVPs, all star nods, a ring?

but ya, i'm with you on the 33 age thing. talent-wise, he's a good enough hitter to push moderate years into age 36. by then, hopefully he's racked up enough counting stats to build a history around for the Jays to sell fans on to watch Vlad approach all-time franchise marks. this is less about the money than it is about the optics in the city. Rogers won't cry broke as they were fully willing to shell out money for Ohtani, Soto, Burnes, etc. the Jays are a big market team with an entire country to draw interest from.

[Brady7799]

to further my thought bubble...

Rogers is committed here in the city. they have spend hundreds of millions on the dome alone in renovations. this is to reflect their understanding of making a baseball game an experience and hopefully draw fans when the team isn't playing so well. this is a long cry from the concrete mausoleum the Jays were playing in for much too long.

i'd love to truly believe that this ownership has figured out a framework for profit building and the cost of renos and Vlad along with the current bloated payroll are all accounted for in order to avoid financial disaster.

at just under 36 million per year (none deferred) what will the present day value say a few years down the line when bigger contracts are being inked? let's assume that salaries in baseball continue to rise as they have always. he's currently playing 2025 at 28.5 million so he'll cap out annually at 36 now. without a salary cap in baseball, all bets are off.

you can go to a Jays game for $20 CAD which is essentially free to our American buddies. will Vlad's 500 million pump these prices up as a result? minus the annual hikes, i don't think fans will have to pay the price so go to the ballgame. $20 bucks for a ticket is less than the price of beer in the dome. that's crazy to me. it also tells me they just want to fill the seats and get fans to buy merch, eat and drink where they can turn out a tidy profit. that's fine too, as it's an entertainment package and i ain't broke.

all this money talk, however, makes me want to challenge the future for the Jays around Vladimir Guerrero Jr. if the team is willing to commit to winning, then how are they going to offset the contract with competitive contracts that can plug into a winning team? God bless Alan Roden but he's not likely going to become an all star calibre player. Arjun is still years away and Tiedemann is working back from significant arm issues. there's no pipeline here to support the mlb team once the aging vets are gone and there are plenty of them including 4/5 of the rotation which is one of their strong suits in terms of competing. can Francis be a homegrown staff ace? Bloss a mid rotation guy? where in the world is Alex Manoah? the Jays sold off last deadline and there isn't a name to get excited for. Clase is a speed merchant with some pop, Loperfido looks perpetually overmatched. maybe the Jays never had the capital to get a good return but the recent trade to get Yophery to the Red Sox makes me wonder why can't the Jays make a move like this?

the easiest place to start, imo, is the bullpen for homegrown talent to emerge. it keeps the cost down and teams around the league are routinely pumping out arms that can really chuck a baseball. the Jays? none. Hoffman if you allow the fact he was a one time Jays prospect but he left and came back via free agency. maybe Johnny King? is Macko still alive? i'm a prospect guy and i can only come up with two names off the top of my dead that might fit this bullpen one day.

they locked up Kirk but if you were worried that Vlad's body will fail him one day soon, then you haven't seen Kirk. i'm pretty sure the average fan is faster than him but i guess he's a superb pitch framer (hello strike challenge system) and also homegrown. easy to root for the everyday looking guy in this city. just ask Tie Domi or Jerome Williams how well received the blue collar athlete is here.

the Jays might have done the Guardians a favour by taking on Gimenez. he'll eventually have a 3 year window making 23.5 million so not nearly a term commitment but if you want to tell me that i get a bat like Vlad for 36 million then it's actually not entirely bad. i should respect the name of Gimenez more since he's got more dingers and Vlad and Bo combined out the gate, and he fits the current bizarre obsession with glove first players Atkins has become horny for lately.

Springer is a great example of paying on the back end. he's clearly on the decline and fans don't love his contract. no matter, because his good looks continue to inundate our commercials so clearly there is some appeal to him to draw the casuals. not to be outdone, the Jays went and did it again signing Santander but with deferrals factored in, it's not that bad! plus he's the next great nickname in Jaysland with Tony Taters since Joey Bats.

to get under the tax, the Jays must find cheaper talent or go all out deferral. Roden, Schneider, and the Wagners of the system are fun guys to root for but none of them suggest star talent is coming. meanwhile the Red Sox are boasting the likes of Campbell, Anthony, and Mayer. *sigh*

to me, it's less about the 500 million than it is: what are you going to do about it, now and into the future as far as baseball eyes can see?

i suppose i can sit and find out as i check out the new ballpark features, enjoy the newly installed cupholders, and hope to chat about baseball with the guy sitting next to me instead of watching people recording reels for the 'gram.

funny thing is, the team lost me as a fan to start 2024. the Jays were far and away my sports team since the mid 80s and i suffered through some trying times. a major part of my PC is 90s Blue Jays players (thanks Topps Archives!) and my latest grab was a Tom Henke certified auto. i'm visiting the first stadium in decades when i go to LA in a week to see the Dodgers play and i'm beyond excited about that.

[JRX]

Bottom line is Tor had to pay a premium here. If they let Vlad go they might as well sell the franchise. They get their guy for his whole career and unless he falls apart he's going to be the greatest hitter in Jays history. I just wonder if everyone will rip him like they do Trout for not going to a different team and win or is that hate only saved for Trout?

[ctau00]

Originally Posted by Brady7799

he's the face of the franchise. in the modern game of free agency, is there worth for a franchise type player to spend his entire career in one jersey? maybe not to modern fans but i grew up to players like Larkin, Ripken, Ozzie (funny, all shortstops) off the top of my head that all played a full career wearing one jersey.

Ozzie's first 4 years were in San Diego but I get what you mean.

[awz50]

Originally Posted by JRX

Bottom line is Tor had to pay a premium here. If they let Vlad go they might as well sell the franchise. They get their guy for his whole career and unless he falls apart he's going to be the greatest hitter in Jays history. I just wonder if everyone will rip him like they do Trout for not going to a different team and win or is that hate only saved for Trout?

Saved for Trout, and unfairly so. He stays he gets hated on and if he left? People would still hate..

But anyways back to Vlad

[atk825]

Sure feels like they could have just waited for the offseason, offer him like 10/$275M or whatever and nobody would have matched. And in the off chance someone did, there's still Alonso.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by atk825

Sure feels like they could have just waited for the offseason, offer him like 10/$275M or whatever and nobody would have matched. And in the off chance someone did, there's still Alonso.

Really not worth the risk of letting him get to free agency as you have no idea what will happen. If there's a number you're happy with and he's happy with you sign him. Mets fans spent all offseason trashing Pete thinking they would get Vladdy. Now he's likely to opt out and want an extension at around 30M a year or more.

[Nester99]

Its only a $7mm more than his arbitration pay this year.

What a deal!

I am so happy !

[Triple B]

People might forget that the Jays aren't exclusive to the Toronto market. They are a national team based in Toronto with owners that have separate TV rights than those teams in the US, and exclusive NATIONAL TV rights at that.

$500 million for a guy that is going to appear on TV for the team's owners is going to pay for itself. Merchandise isn't even included here. This deal can age like sour milk and Rogers will still make money.

[Nester99]

Originally Posted by Triple B

People might forget that the Jays aren't exclusive to the Toronto market. They are a national team based in Toronto with owners that have separate TV rights than those teams in the US, and exclusive NATIONAL TV rights at that.

$500 million for a guy that is going to appear on TV for the team's owners is going to pay for itself. Merchandise isn't even included here. This deal can age like sour milk and Rogers will still make money.

This is 100% Correct.

I am 4000km away from Toronto and its all anyone has talked about to me today at work.

My first visit to Skydome was just last year.
Its a wild dynamic having the HOME TEAM you grew up with (TSN) being on the other side of the country.

National Broadcasts of every single game for decades to all parts of the country have grown a huge fanbase.

[Brady7799]

Originally Posted by ctau00

Ozzie's first 4 years were in San Diego but I get what you mean.

yikes. totally correct!

i'll add Votto. he got a cup of coffee with his hometown Jays last spring but never suited up for them. i had to add a Jays Votto update to my PC but i'm bummed he never got to walk up for one at bat in the 'dome.

[Brady7799]

Originally Posted by Nester99

This is 100% Correct.

I am 4000km away from Toronto and its all anyone has talked about to me today at work.

My first visit to Skydome was just last year.
Its a wild dynamic having the HOME TEAM you grew up with (TSN) being on the other side of the country.

National Broadcasts of every single game for decades to all parts of the country have grown a huge fanbase.

i do enjoy watching the Jays on tv when they are in Seattle. it looks like a Jays game when they visit there.

[Retired hobbist]

Originally Posted by JRX

He's one of the worst defensive 1B and the Mets already have one of the worst defensive 3B in Vientos. Vladdy you're paying for 4-6 years and then after around age 32 all bets are off.

I agree when athletes yo-yo diet it's bad sign for the long term weight management. Also athletes with weight issues in baseball tend to peak and fade younger than fit players.

[Rbradleigh]

Originally Posted by Absknicks

That's a lot of money for a guy who hits a ton of groundballs and has put up essentially a ~1 WAR season 3 out of his 6 MLB seasons.

Very flawed player and can't imagine he'll age well with that body.

Agreed but it’s not my money

[KhalDrogo]

Good for Vlad. Like Soto, the contract is a bit inflated thanks to income tax implications. These teams in states with terrible income tax laws have to pay to make up for that. Ohtani is the real one for deferring all that money and being able to take future payments in tax beneficial locations.

[Cracktoast]

Originally Posted by Retired hobbist

I agree when athletes yo-yo diet it's bad sign for the long term weight management. Also athletes with weight issues in baseball tend to peak and fade younger than fit players.

Prince Fielder says hello

[BlueJaysRockies]

Time for celebration! Maybe he can start hitting HR's during April again. Long overdue for early power.

[towerymt]

Originally Posted by Cracktoast

Prince Fielder says hello

Babe Ruth.

[kess]

Maybe the rules are different for pitchers, but Bartolo got better with weight/age/PEDs.

[Allen Ginter 99]

My latest pickup


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[bbteamw]

[Retired hobbist]

Originally Posted by kess

Maybe the rules are different for pitchers, but Bartolo got better with weight/age/PEDs.

Rotund pitchers that are older are much more frequent than position players who have been mainly platoon guys or pinch hitters ie Rusty Staub late in his career.

[eye4talent]

Uh oh, somebody’s heating up…


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