Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

That extension began in Miggy’s age-33 season. There’s a difference between extending a player at that age and signing a player at age 26 to a long-term deal.

Also, Miggy reached 3000 hits, 500 HR and 1800 RBI in that time, which is a big deal, and why it was important to the Tigers for Miggy to retire as a Tiger.

If the Blue Jays manage to sign Vladdy, he’ll be a Blue Jay for life and a Toronto icon forever. That goes beyond statistical output in the waning years of such a player’s career.


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There's all sorts of ways to structure his contract, but you're looking at around 6 years you hope to be elite and then you have 6 years where he probably will be awful.

[Triple B]

Originally Posted by JRX

There's all sorts of ways to structure his contract, but you're looking at around 6 years you hope to be elite and then you have 6 years where he probably will be awful.

Most teams go into these contracts already knowing that. You don't see too many players signing a long term deal that ends at the conclusion of their prime years. Teams are made to pay for the twilight years to get the prime years.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by Triple B

Most teams go into these contracts already knowing that. You don't see too many players signing a long term deal that ends at the conclusion of their prime years. Teams are made to pay for the twilight years to get the prime years.

Correct. It’s just a way to spread out the money.

[Retired hobbist]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

That extension began in Miggy’s age-33 season. There’s a difference between extending a player at that age and signing a player at age 26 to a long-term deal.

Also, Miggy reached 3000 hits, 500 HR and 1800 RBI in that time, which is a big deal, and why it was important to the Tigers for Miggy to retire as a Tiger.

If the Blue Jays manage to sign Vladdy, he’ll be a Blue Jay for life and a Toronto icon forever. That goes beyond statistical output in the waning years of such a player’s career.


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I don't see a platoon type player selling season tickets or much of a walk up crowd in Toronto.

When he is near a magical number that will help the attendance and that will be about it.

If the Blue Jays aren't contending nobody cares in Toronto.

[Triple B]

Hit my target of 10 Vlad 1/1s. Unless it's a wild upgrade, this part of my collection is done.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by Triple B

Hit my target of 10 Vlad 1/1s. Unless it's a wild upgrade, this part of my collection is done.

Those are some amazing cards, man. Hoping for a big season for him!

[Fitz23]

Originally Posted by Triple B

Hit my target of 10 Vlad 1/1s. Unless it's a wild upgrade, this part of my collection is done.

Congratulations!

[BlueJaysRockies]

Congratulations!

[Twalk1975]

Vlad Golden Mirror that I recently acquired.



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[bbteamw]

[ThoseBackPages]

Yeaaaaaaaa fatboy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[eye4talent]

Now maybe he can relax at the plate and start hitting some missiles!


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[blackvodka]

Well someone just got half a billion dollars.

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

No more fast food. Fine dining from now on.

[rms13]

Glad they got it done. After the Jays publicly chased and missed out on Ohtani and Soto it wouldn't look good if they let Vlad get to free agency

[Absknicks]

That's a lot of money for a guy who hits a ton of groundballs and has put up essentially a ~1 WAR season 3 out of his 6 MLB seasons.

Very flawed player and can't imagine he'll age well with that body.

[Cracktoast]

So it's 100% guaranteed that Bichette is gone I guess. Braves should push hard at the Trade deadline.


Great deal for Vlad Jr but horrible for everyone else. They just paid 1 guy who has been the definition of mediocrity at best more than their projected team payroll for the next 3 years combined. Bichette is all but gone and it's unlikely they will have anything left to sign other big name FA's. At this point for the contract to even come close to making sense Guerrero is going to have to be Juadge + Ohtani for the next 10+ yrs with no injuries or slumps.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by Cracktoast

So it's 100% guaranteed that Bichette is gone I guess. Braves should push hard at the Trade deadline.


Great deal for Vlad Jr but horrible for everyone else. They just paid 1 guy who has been the definition of mediocrity at best more than their projected team payroll for the next 3 years combined. Bichette is all but gone and it's unlikely they will have anything left to sign other big name FA's. At this point for the contract to even come close to making sense Guerrero is going to have to be Juadge + Ohtani for the next 10+ yrs with no injuries or slumps.

Its paid over 14 years. 35 per is an overpay for a 1B soon to be DH, but that's far from a team breaking salary. The real question will be does he stay in shape now that he's got his bag.

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by Absknicks

That's a lot of money for a guy who hits a ton of groundballs and has put up essentially a ~1 WAR season 3 out of his 6 MLB seasons.

Very flawed player and can't imagine he'll age well with that body.

Very flawed analysis.

Two of the “down” seasons you referenced are his first two seasons, when he was age 20 and 21. So, really, you can throw those out, as he was still very much a kid leaning on natural talent.

As for the body criticism… If you’re looking at pictures of him when he ballooned during the pandemic season, then I could see where you’re coming from. But that’s not him anymore. How many games has he missed in his career? How many IL stints has he had? Do you know what kind training he does in the offseason? Have you actually taken note of how athletic he is? While some keep saying he’ll be a DH soon, he’s logging more games at third base.

I’m not saying he’ll be at the top of his game at 38, 39 years old. But he’s proven to be extremely durable, he’s a hard worker, and the Blue Jays have reason to believe that he’ll consistently deliver .300 averages with 70+ extra-base hits, generally producing an OPS above .900.

Really, what more do you want from a player than being the face of the franchise who gets lots of hits and lots of big hits?


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[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by Triple B

Hit my target of 10 Vlad 1/1s. Unless it's a wild upgrade, this part of my collection is done.

Wowzers - epic job!

[coltsnsox07]

I'd ask for the money in US dollars. 1 USD = 1.42 Canadian.

[JustinVerlander07]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

Very flawed analysis.

Two of the “down” seasons you referenced are his first two seasons, when he was age 20 and 21. So, really, you can throw those out, as he was still very much a kid leaning on natural talent.

As for the body criticism… If you’re looking at pictures of him when he ballooned during the pandemic season, then I could see where you’re coming from. But that’s not him anymore. How many games has he missed in his career? How many IL stints has he had? Do you know what kind training he does in the offseason? Have you actually taken note of how athletic he is? While some keep saying he’ll be a DH soon, he’s logging more games at third base.

I’m not saying he’ll be at the top of his game at 38, 39 years old. But he’s proven to be extremely durable, he’s a hard worker, and the Blue Jays have reason to believe that he’ll consistently deliver .300 averages with 70+ extra-base hits, generally producing an OPS above .900.

Really, what more do you want from a player than being the face of the franchise who gets lots of hits and lots of big hits?


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I'm going to say the same thing that I said in the 2025 Tigers thread for those who wanted him in Detroit. He has two seasons being an elite hitter, 1 being great, and the rest are good/meh. If that's a guy you want to pay a ton of money to for 14 years who is an all bat no defense and every year you'll talk about the kind of shape he's in, great! I think he's quite overrated and the contract will blow up in the Jays face sooner than people expect. Good for him getting the bag, but I'd expect the contract. to start being a disaster by 33.

[Scottish Punk]

I will start by saying I generally like Vlad Jr. I got no issue with him getting money. 14 years is silly. I thought teams were moving away from these long contracts. The back 7 or 8 years on this will be dead weight for Toronto. Might just be the price of keeping a homegrown superstar in Toronto though. I can see him gaining weight and becoming a full time DH sooner rather than later. Hopefully in balls out for the next handful of years and gives some value to the contract for the sake of Toronto fans.

[rms13]

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

I will start by saying I generally like Vlad Jr. I got no issue with him getting money. 14 years is silly. I thought teams were moving away from these long contracts. The back 7 or 8 years on this will be dead weight for Toronto. Might just be the price of keeping a homegrown superstar in Toronto though. I can see him gaining weight and becoming a full time DH sooner rather than later. Hopefully in balls out for the next handful of years and gives some value to the contract for the sake of Toronto fans.

It is the price of keeping him in Toronto but at the same time the Yankees probably wouldn't have outbid them in free agency.

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by JustinVerlander07

I'm going to say the same thing that I said in the 2025 Tigers thread for those who wanted him in Detroit. He has two seasons being an elite hitter, 1 being great, and the rest are good/meh. If that's a guy you want to pay a ton of money to for 14 years who is an all bat no defense and every year you'll talk about the kind of shape he's in, great! I think he's quite overrated and the contract will blow up in the Jays face sooner than people expect. Good for him getting the bag, but I'd expect the contract. to start being a disaster by 33.

Ill-conceived narratives: he’s fat and unathletic; he’s all bat, no defense; he’s overrated because he wasn’t elite at 20.

He’s won a Gold Glove and plays some third base. I’m not saying he’s Adrian Beltre, but he gets the job done in the field, and he makes plays—diving stops, over-the-shoulder catches, full splits on errant throws.

But I’m a person who thinks the position argument is vastly over-emphasized. A lineup is a puzzle that doesn’t require all of your playmaking to come from one key position. Give me bats, and my team will score runs. Give me JP Crawford and Patrick Bailey, and my defense will hold its own.

The only question with Vlad’s contract is how he’ll age. A Miggy/Pujols falloff is certainly possible. But then Frank Thomas lasted for a while. Either way, he’s the face of the franchise, which has tremendous value. If he can lead them to one World Series, or if they can be competitive for a window of five or eight or ten years, then, it’ll be worth dealing with his declining years—when, hopefully he’ll be pursuing a milestone or two.


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