**Official Luka Doncic Thread**

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Derekbauer

I think the collecting aspect needs to also factor in though as well. Do you think some kid in Europe wants a 2003 Lebron in his high school jersey or a shiny good looking Luka at the relatively same price?

I don’t know how we measure that and I’m sure it varies on who you’re talking to.

Does the kid in Antarctica value the Hoops Holiday edition more than the kid in Egypt because he can relate to the snowflakes on the card more? Who knows?

Nobody has any clue what’s going to happen in the future. All we have are data points and how we extrapolate after that is completely dependent on the person viewing the data.

What’s not up for dispute is that Luka has more rookie cards available, both in variants and sheer supply, than Lebron does AND his cheaper entry point isn’t as expansive. What that means for the future? Who knows?

I was just trying to state that worrying about Luka as a player is silly: Barring a massive injury he is set up to be an All-Timer. Just because you’re an All-Time player doesn’t necessarily mean that all of your cards are good investments. That’s all. They’re two separate things.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

mine is. which NBA RC PSA 10s are selling for under $250?

even MVP is over that

Those junk sets where LeBron has like 50 different cards go for under $200. Not really RCs though. Not that I need to tell you that

[Derekbauer]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

I don’t know how we measure that and I’m sure it varies on who you’re talking to.

Does the kid in Antarctica value the Hoops Holiday edition more than the kid in Egypt because he can relate to the snowflakes on the card more? Who knows?

Nobody has any clue what’s going to happen in the future. All we have are data points and how we extrapolate after that is completely dependent on the person viewing the data.

What’s not up for dispute is that Luka has more rookie cards available, both in variants and sheer supply, than Lebron does AND his cheaper entry point isn’t as expansive. What that means for the future? Who knows?

I was just trying to state that worrying about Luka as a player is silly: Barring a massive injury he is set up to be an All-Timer. Just because you’re an All-Time player doesn’t necessarily mean that all of your cards are good investments. That’s all. They’re two separate things.

I agree with this for the most part. I was just trying to point out your research on cards under $100 for both of them as rookies has many more factors than sheer “investing”.

Personally I think short term even the high pop, low value Luka has plenty to grow. Long term, like you said, we will have to wait and see. Hopefully he can change the economics of it....

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Those junk sets where LeBron has like 50 different cards go for under $200. Not really RCs though. Not that I need to tell you that

oh yea! The Diary Set and HS stuff! lol

[Akphillips86]

Timing is actually the biggest factor in Luka’s market right now if you are investing. If you are collecting, it’s all gravy, nobody’s opinion should really matter.

If you bought before the boom, there’s no need to be sweating bullets about anything. Just hold and enjoy the action unless you want to use some of your Luka to build up a collection of another player.

Now, if you paid crazy dollars for Luka stuff after the price surge, your margin of error for predicted future performance (at least in the immediate sense) is razor thin. I could understand some trepidation here. What I would say to alleviate some fear is that he’s only 21 and he’s going to keep getting better (scary in a good way).

Every investment worthy player has a time to buy, hold, and sell. Right now I would be holding rather than buying or selling Luka. He could still rise from current prices, but a significant rise at this point will most likely be related to postseason performance and/or MVP. If he drops, it won’t be some overnight precipitous fall. A sizable dip during the season isn’t likely to happen with his statistical consistency IMO.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[KhalDrogo]

High pop cards are sustainable because that's where your biggest pool of buyers live. This always gets ignored in these discussions. There are 1000x more people in the market who can and want to buy a $300 Status PSA 10 than an $8000 Prizm Silver PSA 10. And people love their PSA 10s because it has become the standard measuring stick. No idea why people get baffled when rarer PSA 9s sell for less than the more common PSA 10.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

oh yea! The Diary Set and HS stuff! lol

My searches are designed to avoid all that garbage

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Those junk sets where LeBron has like 50 different cards go for under $200. Not really RCs though. Not that I need to tell you that

And I’d argue that the majority of Luka’s cards are junk sets, unless you know the dude who is collecting Chronicles, Threads, Hoops, Donruss paper stuff. Maybe there’s a guy out there just waiting to show his Emergent rookie stash and flex all over everybody. Maybe “Our Time” is right now? Who knows.

The Luka junk is pricier than the Lebron junk, and that’s kind of the point.

Scrap metal from a Datsun is just as valuable as scrap metal from a Porsche.

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

Timing is actually the biggest factor in Luka’s market right now if you are investing. If you are collecting, it’s all gravy, nobody’s opinion should really matter.

If you bought before the boom, there’s no need to be sweating bullets about anything. Just hold and enjoy the action unless you want to use some of your Luka to build up a collection of another player.

Now, if you paid crazy dollars for Luka stuff after the price surge, your margin of error for predicted future performance (at least in the immediate sense) is razor thin. I could understand some trepidation here. What I would say to alleviate some fear is that he’s only 21 and he’s going to keep getting better (scary in a good way).

Every investment worthy player has a time to buy, hold, and sell. Right now I would be holding rather than buying or selling Luka. He could still rise from current prices, but a significant rise at this point will most likely be related to postseason performance and/or MVP. If he drops, it won’t be some overnight precipitous fall. A sizable dip during the season isn’t likely to happen with his statistical consistency IMO.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

💥
I got in very early so not sweating and just will enjoy the ride. They could be 0-3 after tomorrow, but after 20 games they are likely to have won a few games. Lol

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

I wouldn’t worry about Luka as a player in the slightest. I also wouldn’t worry about the Mavs long term. Cuban has shown the willingness to win and will do everything in his power to form a dynasty around Luka. Luka as a player is in the greatest spot he could be in.

From a card perspective, I’d be more worried about the sheer saturation of Luka cards.

Lebron has had 1600 or so PSA 10 rookies sell in the last 90 days on eBay.
675 of those (42%) have gone for less than $250.

Luka has had 4400 or so PSA 10 rookies sell in the last 90 days on eBay.
991 of those (23%) have gone for less than $250.

I’m not concerned about Luka as a player in the slightest. If you can’t bet on Luka then you can’t bet on any NBA player. The over saturation is uncharted territory and nobody has any idea how that plays out long term, and no it’s not just the incredible pop on the Prizm. That’s where the worry should lie from a card standpoint.

Originally Posted by Mrsportcardz

What lebron rookies that are psa 10 are selling for less than $250? That’s what I’m trying to figure out here....lol

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Your eBay search function broken?

He doesn't want to answer because it doesn't fit his narrative. I'll answer.
It's basically the Lebon boxed sets. Remove Phenomenal Beginnings, Top Prospects, Lebron's Diary and the raw cards that are "PSA 10?" from the search. Guess what that leaves you. Less than 20 cards. Subsets like City Heights where a few went below that. That's it. Under 20. Not 675...

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

And I’d argue that the majority of Luka’s cards are junk sets, unless you know the dude who is collecting Chronicles, Threads, Hoops, Donruss paper stuff. Maybe there’s a guy out there just waiting to show his Emergent rookie stash and flex all over everybody. Maybe “Our Time” is right now? Who knows.

The Luka junk is pricier than the Lebron junk, and that’s kind of the point.

Scrap metal from a Datsun is just as valuable as scrap metal from a Porsche.

Not sure how you can compare pack pulled cards to special edition low end boxed set like Phenomenal Beginnings. If Luka had a 20 card set like that, I’d call that junk too. And yes, there are people collecting Chronicles, Threads, Hoops, and Donruss. Just look at this thread. Not everyone can afford the Prizms of the hobby.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Not sure how you can compare pack pulled cards to special edition low end boxed set like Phenomenal Beginnings. If Luka had a 20 card set like that, I’d call that junk too. And yes, there are people collecting Chronicles, Threads, Hoops, and Donruss. Just look at this thread. Not everyone can afford the Prizms of the hobby.

Because they’re all junk (IMO) and junk is junk. The packaging is irrelevant (see car analogy).

Like I stated, Luka has more 2018 cards than Lebron has 2003, and the lower-end on Luka is elevated than Lebron. That’s all.

It has nothing to do with Luka as a player. Just stating that the card supply for Luka rookies is in a territory above Lebron and what that means 10, 20, 30 years from now. Nobody has any idea.

[Dnic]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Because they’re all junk (IMO) and junk is junk. The packaging is irrelevant (see car analogy).

Like I stated, Luka has more 2018 cards than Lebron has 2003, and the lower-end on Luka is elevated than Lebron. That’s all.

It has nothing to do with Luka as a player. Just stating that the card supply for Luka rookies is in a territory above Lebron and what that means 10, 20, 30 years from now. Nobody has any idea.

One person's junk is another person's treasure though....

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Not sure how you can compare pack pulled cards to special edition low end boxed set like Phenomenal Beginnings. If Luka had a 20 card set like that, I’d call that junk too. And yes, there are people collecting Chronicles, Threads, Hoops, and Donruss. Just look at this thread. Not everyone can afford the Prizms of the hobby.

True, I myself do not consider any of those products junk, (especially Hoops and Donruss, because they aren't some one off brand that never see the light of day again, they are staples just like Topps Flagship for Baseball) and wouldn't maybe a better analogy be Panini Instant Lukas (not pack pulled special online only cards) to the Lebron sets? I don't know what those go for nor the Lebron set cards because I really don't care for either, but for the sake of this argument wouldn't those be better comps?

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by Chris P

True, I myself do not consider any of those products junk, (especially Hoops and Donruss, because they aren't some one off brand that never see the light of day again, they are staples just like Topps Flagship for Baseball) and wouldn't maybe a better analogy be Panini Instant Lukas (not pack pulled special online only cards) to the Lebron sets? I don't know what those go for nor the Lebron set cards because I really don't care for either, but for the sake of this argument wouldn't those be better comps?

Yes. Comparing Chronicles or Hoops to Lebron boxed sets is just silly

[Bruin7]

Originally Posted by The_Reverend

💥
I got in very early so not sweating and just will enjoy the ride. They could be 0-3 after tomorrow, but after 20 games they are likely to have won a few games. Lol

Same here. There’s many of us that got in LOW. It’s a beautiful thing.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Because they’re all junk (IMO) and junk is junk. The packaging is irrelevant (see car analogy).

Like I stated, Luka has more 2018 cards than Lebron has 2003, and the lower-end on Luka is elevated than Lebron. That’s all.

It has nothing to do with Luka as a player. Just stating that the card supply for Luka rookies is in a territory above Lebron and what that means 10, 20, 30 years from now. Nobody has any idea.

You couldn’t be more wrong. Of course the packaging is relevant. The hobby treats pack issues cards differently. Always has, always will. To say Phenomenal Beginnings is the same as Hoops is just wrong. PB is $450 and has 21 LeBron cards. Hoops is $710 for a hobby box and your average box contains one Luka card.

You can feel free to think those two should be treated the same, but the market disagrees.

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Not sure how you can compare pack pulled cards to special edition low end boxed set like Phenomenal Beginnings. If Luka had a 20 card set like that, I’d call that junk too. And yes, there are people collecting Chronicles, Threads, Hoops, and Donruss. Just look at this thread. Not everyone can afford the Prizms of the hobby.

Agreed. And with Chronicles, it is so heavily tiered that it’s hard to paint in broad strokes. Chronicles chrome (Phoenix and Crusade parallels especially, but also Optichrome and Obsidian for 18-19) and even some foil (Essentials #’d parallels) are desirable cards to have for any quality rookie.

After Topps exited the market, Hoops has always retained value for quality RCs as well. I definitely wouldn’t throw these sets in the junk category. Even though I’m not wild about Threads or Donruss, there’s still a market there.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Dnic]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Not sure how you can compare pack pulled cards to special edition low end boxed set like Phenomenal Beginnings. If Luka had a 20 card set like that, I’d call that junk too. And yes, there are people collecting Chronicles, Threads, Hoops, and Donruss. Just look at this thread. Not everyone can afford the Prizms of the hobby.

Couldn't agree with you more I mean not everyone's budget is the same and some just want a Luka rookie, they buy what they can afford and why would anyone call them junk smh lol

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by Dnic

Couldn't agree with you more I mean not everyone's budget is the same and some just want a Luka rookie, they buy what they can afford and why would anyone call them junk smh lol

This is my friend..he's a HUGE Mavs fan has been since we were kids (and when they were dreadful in the 90s lol) and Luka got him interested in collecting again but he saw the prices on Prizm base..Optic etc and was floored lol. He wanted a Luka and chose Donruss because of the familarity of the Rated Rookie logo from when he was a kid. It has lineage..I'm sure there are plenty of collectors like this.

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

High pop cards are sustainable because that's where your biggest pool of buyers live. This always gets ignored in these discussions. There are 1000x more people in the market who can and want to buy a $300 Status PSA 10 than an $8000 Prizm Silver PSA 10. And people love their PSA 10s because it has become the standard measuring stick. No idea why people get baffled when rarer PSA 9s sell for less than the more common PSA 10.

This is why I will never pay $1000+ for a card. If we are talking strictly for financial gain, I would rather have five $200 cards. Way easier to move a $200 card for profit than a four figure card.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

You couldn’t be more wrong. Of course the packaging is relevant. The hobby treats pack issues cards differently. Always has, always will. To say Phenomenal Beginnings is the same as Hoops is just wrong. PB is $450 and has 21 LeBron cards. Hoops is $710 for a hobby box and your average box contains one Luka card.

You can feel free to think those two should be treated the same, but the market disagrees.

That’s fair. They’re junk to me, but Dnic is right ones man’s trash is another man’s treasure.

In the end, after the speculation period is done on a player, it’s guys like me who float the prices on said player though. Guys like Abra floated the market on rare Kemps, guys like Kyle float the market on Jeff Foster, Steve helps float the Celtics market, Josh boosts the Lebron market, Chris bumps up the Jordan insert market. You get the idea.

When it’s all over and Luka gets his FBHOF nod, are these types of people going to want THOSE types of cards, of which Luka has a seemingly endless supply? Doubtful, the same way they don’t want the Lebron junk.

Fun fact: 2018 Luka’s outsell their 2018 Lebron counterpart from every set except 1. You own the Luka. Why does the Lebron from that set sell for more than the Luka rookie?

[jw8]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

And I’d argue that the majority of Luka’s cards are junk sets, unless you know the dude who is collecting Chronicles, Threads, Hoops, Donruss paper stuff. Maybe there’s a guy out there just waiting to show his Emergent rookie stash and flex all over everybody. Maybe “Our Time” is right now? Who knows.



The Luka junk is pricier than the Lebron junk, and that’s kind of the point.



Scrap metal from a Datsun is just as valuable as scrap metal from a Porsche.

My time to shine

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Not sure how you can compare pack pulled cards to special edition low end boxed set like Phenomenal Beginnings. If Luka had a 20 card set like that, I’d call that junk too. And yes, there are people collecting Chronicles, Threads, Hoops, and Donruss. Just look at this thread. Not everyone can afford the Prizms of the hobby.

Exactly. Chronicles gives people with smaller budgets a place to go to get Luka rc’s. Also retail was golden. Hobby packs TOO EXPENSIVE.

[Asian62150]

Hasn't this issue (more cards of more recent players) always been a thing?

LeBron has more RCs than Jordan
Luka has more RCs than LeBron
Zion has more RCs than Luka

I think it is a good thing as long as Panini doesn't send us into the new Junk Wax era. When the overall sports card market is hot, Panini is going to produce more cards, not less.

As has been stated by others, most of this stuff sells bc of HYPE. Luka has incredible hype right now. So the demand for his stuff (rare and common) is hot. If he just puts up numbers and doesn't get MVPs or championships in the next 2-4 years, the hype will die down and so will his values. Same goes for Zion. The clock is ticking on these guys. It helps that there aren't any super hyped rookies this year, so Luka and Zion have a little more time in the spotlight to produce.

But look at Giannis. His stuff was scorching and now it has relatively cooled/leveled off. He's past the point of just hype. The only way his prices keep climbing is championship and a lot of people don't see that happening in Milwaukee.

It's also why Bron, MJ, Russell stuff is more steady/reliable. They can't change the narrative of their on-court performances. Even if Bron wins another championship, ring #5 isn't going to suddenly catapult his prices 10x. He's locked in as a Top 5 player of all time.