**Official Luka Doncic Thread**

[YayNJ]

People writing Luka off lol

Some people really need to get a life.

[RedMike]

Lukas been good. Playing good minutes, his usage rate is still up there and his overs all numbers been consistent over two games. With his crazy high usage, he is still able to keep his turnovers at 2 per game at the moment. Looks like his free throws have improved. Dallas team is only going to get better with time.

[The_Reverend]

I have began to take profits on cards, but not one of them is Luka! There are lots of profit if you did your homework. When you can sell a box find of a player that graded PSA 10 for $320 because of a trade, then that is a win all day long.

[sebreg]

Originally Posted by The_Reverend

This and people forget that the HEAT found themselves in the Bubble Finals after people gave up on them early. Chemistry is everything. To ease your stress, those overreacting, divest yourself of all your Luka cards and move on. Make 2021 better for yourself and keep it moving. SELL OFF EVERYTHING and don’t look back. I know those over reacting will not do it! They just whistling Dixie!

Yeah, exactly. If I had a lot of money tied up in early career players, I'd understand it's a gamble and would only be betting money I could afford to lose. You have to have a sense of the level of the odds. To me, it's like a funnel, you already start with a very few "x" amount of players who have requisite all-time talent (Luka obviously one of them) and can put up a great 1st third of career, then fewer number of players can chain together a successful 2nd part of career. And then to string together another great back third? only a handful of players all-time have done that. "Success" is a bit of an amorphous term, so definition/standards will vary person to person.

Personally, I can't help but think of guys like Penny, McGrady, GHill who were beasts in the first third and then got derailed.

A lot of presumed "success" is already baked into prices it feels like.

It's fun so long as you aren't betting the house on it. You have to have the stomach for the gamble. High risk, high reward. If I was stressing so much about having so much $$$ invested, I would not keep the money on the player, not worth the stress.

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by The_Reverend

This and people forget that the HEAT found themselves in the Bubble Finals after people gave up on them early. Chemistry is everything. To ease your stress, those overreacting, divest yourself of all your Luka cards and move on. Make 2021 better for yourself and keep it moving. SELL OFF EVERYTHING and don’t look back. I know those over reacting will not do it! They just whistling Dixie!

Thats the thing though..a lot of the people doing this sky is falling bs have little to no Luka cards. Thats why they come im here and troll everyone. They want him to fail so they dont feel as bad missing out

[Sirwin30]

Originally Posted by sebreg

Yeah, exactly. If I had a lot of money tied up in early career players, I'd understand it's a gamble and would only be betting money I could afford to lose. You have to have a sense of the level of the odds. To me, it's like a funnel, you already start with a very few "x" amount of players who have requisite all-time talent (Luka obviously one of them) and can put up a great 1st third of career, then fewer number of players can chain together a successful 2nd part of career. And then to string together another great back third? only a handful of players all-time have done that. "Success" is a bit of an amorphous term, so definition/standards will vary person to person.

Personally, I can't help but think of guys like Penny, McGrady, GHill who were beasts in the first third and then got derailed.

A lot of presumed "success" is already baked into prices it feels like.

It's fun so long as you aren't betting the house on it. You have to have the stomach for the gamble. High risk, high reward. If I was stressing so much about having so much $$$ invested, I would not keep the money on the player, not worth the stress.

I get the Penny, McGrath, hill comparisons, but statistically, Luka has done things neither of those guys have done already. Yes, mvps and rings are baked into those prices, and rightfully so. He’s 21 and came into the league as the European lebron. That shot he hit against the clippers last year was my Jordan vs the cavs game winner.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[KhalDrogo]

Rough start to the season, no doubt. Not going to get better tomorrow at the Clippers. Cuban must have pissed off Silver to get this three game road stretch to open the season.

As long as KP can play most of the season, I still see the Mavs as high as the three seed, and definitely falling somewhere in the 3-6 range.

[kefskala]

Watching him play the past wo games was very painful. Wasn't playing with the grace that he played with last year. His griming facial expressions also hurt watching. Cant sit watching and holding my breath with every drive hoping he lands ok and not sustain another ankle injury...So much easier investing in retired players...

[Kobefan]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Rough start to the season, no doubt. Not going to get better tomorrow at the Clippers. Cuban must have pissed off Silver to get this three game road stretch to open the season.

As long as KP can play most of the season, I still see the Mavs as high as the three seed, and definitely falling somewhere in the 3-6 range.

That pretty much means he's not winning the MVP this season cause the vast majority of the winners are in teams seeded 1st or 2nd place.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by kefskala

Watching him play the past wo games was very painful. Wasn't playing with the grace that he played with last year. His griming facial expressions also hurt watching. Cant sit watching and holding my breath with every drive hoping he lands ok and not sustain another ankle injury...So much easier investing in retired players...

much more fun to collect cards for sure

[PSA2Pac]

No question. I know for a fact first game in the bubble last year the kid looked super rusty and out of shape.

Gonna take some time to get going. Its a long season. Mavs/Luka will be fine.

[PSA2Pac]

Originally Posted by kefskala

Watching him play the past wo games was very painful. Wasn't playing with the grace that he played with last year. His griming facial expressions also hurt watching. Cant sit watching and holding my breath with every drive hoping he lands ok and not sustain another ankle injury...So much easier investing in retired players...

Cool

do you

Originally Posted by Kobefan

That pretty much means he's not winning the MVP this season cause the vast majority of the winners are in teams seeded 1st or 2nd place.

Cool II (lol x1billy)

[dkcardman]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Rough start to the season, no doubt. Not going to get better tomorrow at the Clippers. Cuban must have pissed off Silver to get this three game road stretch to open the season.

As long as KP can play most of the season, I still see the Mavs as high as the three seed, and definitely falling somewhere in the 3-6 range.

They are playing very low energy, look tired, look hurt, poor ball movement. They were out rebounded 53 to 27 last night. That is a 'hustle ' stat. They are settling for poor shots and seem to be forcing shots they want to try and take rather than adapting to what the defense is giving them. On the plus side, they had a 'poor' game and still shot 50% from 2 and 40% from 3! But dang their defense looks terrible. Lakers passed all over the court and they were so slow to follow the ball. Granted the lakers are world champs and have gotten better.
It's still disappointing to see them look this unprepared and I'd have expected to see more readiness and fire out of Luka. But they are young and this is a long season and they will get on track. But short term, we may have a good buy spell coming, particularly if they keep looking like this the next few games.
I do have a feeling they will get a little of that fire back vs the Clips though as they played them really well in the playoffs. If they cant bring it vs them and get handled again like last night, I will be more concerned.

[GeechQuest]

I wouldn’t worry about Luka as a player in the slightest. I also wouldn’t worry about the Mavs long term. Cuban has shown the willingness to win and will do everything in his power to form a dynasty around Luka. Luka as a player is in the greatest spot he could be in.

From a card perspective, I’d be more worried about the sheer saturation of Luka cards.

Lebron has had 1600 or so PSA 10 rookies sell in the last 90 days on eBay.
675 of those (42%) have gone for less than $250.

Luka has had 4400 or so PSA 10 rookies sell in the last 90 days on eBay.
991 of those (23%) have gone for less than $250.

I’m not concerned about Luka as a player in the slightest. If you can’t bet on Luka then you can’t bet on any NBA player. The over saturation is uncharted territory and nobody has any idea how that plays out long term, and no it’s not just the incredible pop on the Prizm. That’s where the worry should lie from a card standpoint.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

I wouldn’t worry about Luka as a player in the slightest. I also wouldn’t worry about the Mavs long term. Cuban has shown the willingness to win and will do everything in his power to form a dynasty around Luka. Luka as a player is in the greatest spot he could be in.

From a card perspective, I’d be more worried about the sheer saturation of Luka cards.

Lebron has had 1600 or so PSA 10 rookies sell in the last 90 days on eBay.
675 of those (42%) have gone for less than $250.

Luka has had 4400 or so PSA 10 rookies sell in the last 90 days on eBay.
991 of those (23%) have gone for less than $250.

I’m not concerned about Luka as a player in the slightest. If you can’t bet on Luka then you can’t bet on any NBA player. The over saturation is uncharted territory and nobody has any idea how that plays out long term, and no it’s not just the incredible pop on the Prizm. That’s where the worry should lie from a card standpoint.

i hear this a lot across all cards. if someone is investing in cards, then i would concern myself about what people want to buy, not what a cards population is

[sebreg]

Originally Posted by Sirwin30

I get the Penny, McGrath, hill comparisons, but statistically, Luka has done things neither of those guys have done already. Yes, mvps and rings are baked into those prices, and rightfully so. He’s 21 and came into the league as the European lebron. That shot he hit against the clippers last year was my Jordan vs the cavs game winner.


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Oh, I didn't mean just talent level. I was more thinking along the lines of injury risks, more than anything that is the biggest risk to a player of Luka's talent level (because I think if he is relatively healthy throughout his career he WILL have great success).

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

i hear this a lot across all cards. if someone is investing in cards, then i would concern myself about what people want to buy, not what a cards population is

This is also the reason you don’t “invest” in cards and would be mediocre “investment” advice.

[sebreg]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

i hear this a lot across all cards. if someone is investing in cards, then i would concern myself about what people want to buy, not what a cards population is

It's a bit of a push-pull between supply/demand. Clearly the 18 prizm have a huge supply, the risk on that level is if enough people start moving away from that card and shifting money to lower pop stuff. Not necessarily zero sum, but it takes a lot of money to maintain those market caps with such an abundance of cards. I agree with GeechQuest, I do think supply level is a potential risk on the Prizm Lukas.

[kefskala]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

i hear this a lot across all cards. if someone is investing in cards, then i would concern myself about what people want to buy, not what a cards population is

wait to see what panini pushes out this year...hope history doesnt repeat but greed steps in.....safe investment 1986 fleer psa 10 all day long...this iconic set still has players that are active on tv basketball shows or that are still in the spot light.

[Mrsportcardz]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

I wouldn’t worry about Luka as a player in the slightest. I also wouldn’t worry about the Mavs long term. Cuban has shown the willingness to win and will do everything in his power to form a dynasty around Luka. Luka as a player is in the greatest spot he could be in.

From a card perspective, I’d be more worried about the sheer saturation of Luka cards.

Lebron has had 1600 or so PSA 10 rookies sell in the last 90 days on eBay.
675 of those (42%) have gone for less than $250.

Luka has had 4400 or so PSA 10 rookies sell in the last 90 days on eBay.
991 of those (23%) have gone for less than $250.

I’m not concerned about Luka as a player in the slightest. If you can’t bet on Luka then you can’t bet on any NBA player. The over saturation is uncharted territory and nobody has any idea how that plays out long term, and no it’s not just the incredible pop on the Prizm. That’s where the worry should lie from a card standpoint.

What lebron rookies that are psa 10 are selling for less than $250? That’s what I’m trying to figure out here....lol

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by sebreg

It's a bit of a push-pull between supply/demand. Clearly the 18 prizm have a huge supply, the risk on that level is if enough people start moving away from that card and shifting money to lower pop stuff. Not necessarily zero sum, but it takes a lot of money to maintain those market caps with such an abundance of cards. I agree with GeechQuest, I do think supply level is a potential risk on the Prizm Lukas.

I wasn’t talking about the Prizm though. I was talking about the tertiary cards. I’ll take PSA 10 qualifiers out of the search.

2003 Lebron James returns 20K+ sales over the past 90 days.
Of those, 10K+ have been under $100 (50%).

2018 Luka Doncic returns 21K+ sales over the past 90 days.
Of those, 7.5K+ have been under $100 (35%).

Luka has more sales than Lebron, and doesn’t have as many cards as cheap as Lebron. This is what I mean by uncharted territory.

Again, Luka as a player is as good as it gets for his age. Luka as a card investment carries incredible supply risk that we’ve never seen before in the hobby.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Mrsportcardz

What lebron rookies that are psa 10 are selling for less than $250? That’s what I’m trying to figure out here....lol

Your eBay search function broken?

[Derekbauer]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

I wasn’t talking about the Prizm though. I was talking about the tertiary cards. I’ll take PSA 10 qualifiers out of the search.

2003 Lebron James returns 20K+ sales over the past 90 days.
Of those, 10K+ have been under $100 (50%).

2018 Luka Doncic returns 21K+ sales over the past 90 days.
Of those, 7.5K+ have been under $100 (35%).

Luka has more sales than Lebron, and doesn’t have as many cards as cheap as Lebron. This is what I mean by uncharted territory.

Again, Luka as a player is as good as it gets for his age. Luka as a card investment carries incredible supply risk that we’ve never seen before in the hobby.

I think the collecting aspect needs to also factor in though as well. Do you think some kid in Europe wants a 2003 Lebron in his high school jersey or a shiny good looking Luka at the relatively same price?

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Your eBay search function broken?

mine is. which NBA RC PSA 10s are selling for under $250?

even MVP is over that

[WallySparks]

Originally Posted by kefskala

Watching him play the past wo games was very painful. Wasn't playing with the grace that he played with last year. His griming facial expressions also hurt watching. Cant sit watching and holding my breath with every drive hoping he lands ok and not sustain another ankle injury...So much easier investing in retired players...

He started off both games by rolling his ankle and falling down after stepping on someone's foot. The first game was right at the start, he stepped on Powell and yesterday he did it again to Davis.