24-25 The Cup is coming

[rizzeedizzee]

Originally Posted by stoopid

In defense of his play -- he's a solid all around player with excellent offensive instincts. He's worthy of the praise with seemingly endless potential.

'Speculating' on rookies for past 40 years in card collecting has been the primary driver behind pricing in the hobby (all sports). I see no change in that trend.

It's almost never (or is it, indeed, NEVER?) a good idea to buy the top cards for the top players from the top set weeks within that set's release. It's a bit tough to gauge as the cards don't often come back up for sale in a short enough time to see the immediate trend, but if looking at cards for the same player that transact more often this is always the case.

The question here should be: is /24 low enough serial to warrant this price? That's an $888,000 USD market cap for just this /24 serial numbered card. No Hart, Ross, Cup, etc. One major injury away from all that money evaporating. <-- This isn't specific to Celebrini, as has been discussed endlessly here and Reddit, etc about buying into rookie/young player hype.

There is also something else to be considered, which is these early top sales are not legitimate, but instead are being made between parties who have large holdings in either sealed or the top players, hoping to set "comps" for a trickle down effect on singles/sealed pricing. This has been documented as having occurred in the other sports, so I can't see how it won't infiltrate hockey too, and perhaps now has.

[rizzeedizzee]

Originally Posted by mclaw131

The True shield auto has now been pulled, on Saturday night with Mamabreaks, a never-hockey breaker with a large eBay/Fanatics following. So the two shields pulled by Backyard and Mama...

This is me not shocked at all. I guess the remaining chases are the 71/71 Exquisite RPA, plus the Celebrini "god pack." If I'm not mistaken, the Bedard "God pack" has not been publicly acknowledged as having been opened, nor has the "7s" all /99 RPAs pack from 2022-23 The Cup.

[ThatGuyPal]

Originally Posted by Satan

"Beyond points" lmao... what else do people care about, corsi?

He's 19 years old and 2nd in the league in points... and somehow the Sharks are in a playoff spot. Of course his market is on fire.

I remember Matthews 60 goals being quite a big deal, pretty sure it even overshadowed Mcdavid’s Art Ross, could be remembering wrong though

[ThatGuyPal]

MacKinnon fans would also tell you there has be something more than points that matter haha

[ThatGuyPal]

I remember everyone going in that GP didn’t even pull that big a shield so nothing could be afoot. Well I just checked their IG for the first time in awhile and they also pulled the Mcdavid, does that count? Lol

[FatButcher]

Originally Posted by ThatGuyPal

I remember everyone going in that GP didn’t even pull that big a shield so nothing could be afoot. Well I just checked their IG for the first time in awhile and they also pulled the Mcdavid, does that count? Lol

Also had a Bedard RC Update numbers auto in that case. The interesting part of that case is GP was short for a break due to a shipping delay, so a dealer friend sold him that case. It was a running joke through that break that his buddy would kill him for pulling the shield and Bedard.

[cholodolo]

This has to be a bloodbath (as usual) with resales inflated/shilled like crazy.

Any consignment shop (especially in China) is just rigging these auctions like nobody's business.

Got a Cutter Gauthier /99 Baroque for $99. Seems like tough going if a hit of an exciting rookie is going for $99.

[ThatGuyPal]

Originally Posted by FatButcher

Also had a Bedard RC Update numbers auto in that case. The interesting part of that case is GP was short for a break due to a shipping delay, so a dealer friend sold him that case. It was a running joke through that break that his buddy would kill him for pulling the shield and Bedard.

Dealer friend being Upper Deck lol was that same case as top goal scorers auto too or no?

The Cup is def a bloodbath for most in response to above. The top guys RPA’s and big cards like the three best goal scorers autos will do good but 85% or more will lose over half your money. So does real gambling though so lol

[cholodolo]

Originally Posted by ThatGuyPal

Dealer friend being Upper Deck lol was that same case as top goal scorers auto too or no?

The Cup is def a bloodbath for most in response to above. The top guys RPA’s and big cards like the three best goal scorers autos will do good but 85% or more will lose over half your money. So does real gambling though so lol

Break spots are insane -- I was monitoring some on Xmas Eve and Xmas and couldn't believe what even comparatively weak teams like Columbus, Calgary, and Nashville were selling for. Wonder if those spots were ever paid for at nearly 200 CDN.

[rizzeedizzee]

Originally Posted by cholodolo

Break spots are insane -- I was monitoring some on Xmas Eve and Xmas and couldn't believe what even comparatively weak teams like Columbus, Calgary, and Nashville were selling for. Wonder if those spots were ever paid for at nearly 200 CDN.

Columbus tends to be one of the better values in PYTs, since some fail to factor into their pricing that there's an abundance of Fantilli updates. But Nashville and Calgary - if you bought them 100 times at $200CAD in a six box PYT I'm guessing you come out ahead fewer than a dozen times for each.

[Inferno]

Breakers are making such bank off the backs of degens it’s not even funny. Especially a certain big breaker that seems to flaunt an endless buying budget and throws six figure bounties on shield cards. Not even trying to hide the mountains of cash being made off gamblers who are probably spending themselves into crippling debt buying into these breaks non stop and losing most of the time.

Breaking, and more recently the casino-fication of digital repacks, if left unchecked will do even more damage to the hobby and the people in it than any other factor.

[creasecollector]

Originally Posted by Inferno

Breakers are making such bank off the backs of degens it’s not even funny. Especially a certain big breaker that seems to flaunt an endless buying budget and throws six figure bounties on shield cards. Not even trying to hide the mountains of cash being made off gamblers who are probably spending themselves into crippling debt buying into these breaks non stop and losing most of the time.

Breaking, and more recently the casino-fication of digital repacks, if left unchecked will do even more damage to the hobby and the people in it than any other factor.

It's crazy to witness what breaking has become.

[rizzeedizzee]

Originally Posted by Inferno

Breakers are making such bank off the backs of degens it’s not even funny. Especially a certain big breaker that seems to flaunt an endless buying budget and throws six figure bounties on shield cards. Not even trying to hide the mountains of cash being made off gamblers who are probably spending themselves into crippling debt buying into these breaks non stop and losing most of the time.

Breaking, and more recently the casino-fication of digital repacks, if left unchecked will do even more damage to the hobby and the people in it than any other factor.

It really amazes me as to how blatant it is that these breakers are making such ridiculous profits, yet those funding them either don't know or don't mind. I do wonder what would happen if breakers had to disclose the profit they're making on each break. But that day most likely will never come. Who knows though - I know something definitely happened on WhatNot in terms of repack transparency, as those are now gone.

[anusinha]

Originally Posted by rizzeedizzee

It really amazes me as to how blatant it is that these breakers are making such ridiculous profits, yet those funding them either don't know or don't mind. I do wonder what would happen if breakers had to disclose the profit they're making on each break. But that day most likely will never come. Who knows though - I know something definitely happened on WhatNot in terms of repack transparency, as those are now gone.

People who cant do math are going to get taken advantage of, that's the circle of life.

[JohnnyAppleseed]

Originally Posted by creasecollector

It's crazy to witness what breaking has become.

I remember getting in on breaks for 2015-16 products, doing the math, and it wasn't so bad. A case that was $1200 retail would cost $42/spot. Now case prices are double and break spots are triple. Combine that with more product, fewer (and worse) hits... yeah I don't get break spots anymore.

[rizzeedizzee]

I keep thinking the whales will dry up, but when they disappear - and they always do, since as we all know it's only a matter of time - voila there are others. Still, it has to end at some point, and the overleveraged breakers will be in a world of hurt.

[mortuus]

Originally Posted by Inferno

Breakers are making such bank off the backs of degens it’s not even funny. Especially a certain big breaker that seems to flaunt an endless buying budget and throws six figure bounties on shield cards. Not even trying to hide the mountains of cash being made off gamblers who are probably spending themselves into crippling debt buying into these breaks non stop and losing most of the time.

Breaking, and more recently the casino-fication of digital repacks, if left unchecked will do even more damage to the hobby and the people in it than any other factor.

Those people are the reason why the entire hobby box opening stopped being fun long ago. Not like your average joe will afford buying tons of cases of the cup to max your profit only.

But upper deck doesnt care, as long as they sell out their cases its all good

[rizzeedizzee]

Originally Posted by mortuus

Those people are the reason why the entire hobby box opening stopped being fun long ago. Not like your average joe will afford buying tons of cases of the cup to max your profit only.

But upper deck doesnt care, as long as they sell out their cases its all good

Breaking was an issue, but with 24-25 The Cup we saw for the first time that pricing upon release had baked in increases. As far as I'm aware distributors were charging the same for 23-24 The Cup and 24-25 The Cup, yet for prerelease 23-24 could be had for $5000-5500 per six box case. But then it skyrocketed to $8000, making the retailers who presold it for only $5500 only weeks earlier not thrilled. So they took a page from what top music artists did after they saw that tickets for their sold out concerts were going for lots more on the secondary market, which is price the tickets with the increase baked in. And since that didn't deter breaking, supply is drying up and prices are rising even further. Madness.

[ThatGuyPal]

Originally Posted by rizzeedizzee

Breaking was an issue, but with 24-25 The Cup we saw for the first time that pricing upon release had baked in increases. As far as I'm aware distributors were charging the same for 23-24 The Cup and 24-25 The Cup, yet for prerelease 23-24 could be had for $5000-5500 per six box case. But then it skyrocketed to $8000, making the retailers who presold it for only $5500 only weeks earlier not thrilled. So they took a page from what top music artists did after they saw that tickets for their sold out concerts were going for lots more on the secondary market, which is price the tickets with the increase baked in. And since that didn't deter breaking, supply is drying up and prices are rising even further. Madness.

Increases weren’t baked in……Celebrini’s season happened. All this still leads back to breaking, not necessarily you but I think people that join/have joined breaks have a hard time admitting they are part of the sole reason prices are the way they are. Without breaking people can’t afford these insane prices

[FatButcher]

Definitely seems UD wants The Cup to be the product that tries to expand who breaks hockey. All of a sudden Backyard Breaks and others on Whatnot are breaking it on release day.

GP Sports even mentioned something in a video that the Cup is successful in expanding the eyes on hockey cards. Part of that is pricing, if it isn't outrageously priced you won't get a sniff from basketball and football breakers.

[rizzeedizzee]

You can be certain there will soon be something even more premium than The Cup. Each of the other sports seem to up the ante every few years. I have to think hockey will be next.

Also, when you have folks like me, who previously had no qualms about buying into breaks despite full well knowing I wouldn't come ahead due to the fact I could afford it and it was fun, saying no mas, then you know there's a problem. Lately, I've picked up some future watch black or inscribed autos for half the price I figured I'd need to spend, on top of fire sold cards from 24-25 Cup from people trying to recoup some small percentage of their spendings. So although I of course wish things had not gotten as out of hand as they have, there are upsides to many.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by rizzeedizzee

You can be certain there will soon be something even more premium than The Cup. Each of the other sports seem to up the ante every few years. I have to think hockey will be next.

Also, when you have folks like me, who previously had no qualms about buying into breaks despite full well knowing I wouldn't come ahead due to the fact I could afford it and it was fun, saying no mas, then you know there's a problem. Lately, I've picked up some future watch black or inscribed autos for half the price I figured I'd need to spend, on top of fire sold cards from 24-25 Cup from people trying to recoup some small percentage of their spendings. So although I of course wish things had not gotten as out of hand as they have, there are upsides to many.

UD employees have said publicly on podcasts and whatnot that it’s the NHL that stipulated The Cup had to be the highest end hockey product. That’s why they didn’t just go with Exquisite like the other sports. The idea being the Stanley Cup is the ultimate prize so The Cup had to be the ultimate hockey product. They can use Exquisite for insert sets but it can’t be its own standalone product or outshine The Cup.

[FatButcher]

I wonder if UD will take a cue from Topps and get "debut patches" into the Cup in future years. Seems to drive an insane chase in other sports. Would likely outshine shields which they may not want.

[ThatGuyPal]

The Cup will just keep going up in price they don’t need a higher-end set. Which some people will be happy about as long as they hit the good rookie in their one box or break.

Cards are also mainstream now, people gotta stop with the mindset “I used to join breaks, if I stopped then the bubble must be close to bursting”, there are ten new people waiting to replace whoever leaves, five of them not even sports fans. It’s like you stop sports betting and assume sports betting as a whole is in trouble, same idea it’s so mainstream now it doesn’t matter.

[FatButcher]

Hockey is still not quite where the other sports are with the droves waiting to fill in as people leave. The Cup is meant to create that stream of new fish though.