Wait ... Paul Skenes won't be winning ROY?!

[PuddleMonkey]

Not to mention the law of averages says he'll suck next year anyway. And need TJ.

[fabiani12333]

Straight from the pirate's mouth -- argh, matey!:

Paul Skenes has a 1.99 ERA this season.

He’s only the second player to post an ERA of less than 2.00 through 22 career appearances since 1913.
https://x.com/Pirates/status/1837991013178351728

[fabiani12333]

He's got a high-80s change-up to go along with his mid-90s "splinker" and 100 mph four-seamer -- lord have mercy on their souls:

“He dominated, really,” said Reds manager David Bell. “The changeup was the growth on his end from the last time we faced him. We’ve faced him a couple of times and he’s been really good against us. That pitch was a difference maker for him today.”

Skenes insists it’s the same changeup he’s thrown since college. The most obvious change from the collegiate Skenes and the Major League version is he didn’t have his splitter-sinker “splinker” to tunnel that changeup off of back then. The four-seamer and changeup can tunnel by themselves, as Rob Friedman illustrates.

But the splinker usually lands low and to his hand-side, like the changeup. That gives him a pitch that can move similarly to the splinker, but come in at around 87 mph rather than 94 mph.

“It kind of reminds me of, when I was young, catching Kevin Gausman,” said Joey Bart. “He would kind of tunnel that splitter to the changeup, and it's pretty devastating. So, he's got 100 mph and he's got plenty of offerings to get him in the zone and put guys away.”

https://www.mlb.com/news/paul-skenes...-win-over-reds

[ScooterD]

Was there a rain delay in the Reds v. Pirates game yesterday? Seems like Skenes and Greene exited a close game REALLY early

[cruiserdaddy7]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

Was there a rain delay in the Reds v. Pirates game yesterday? Seems like Skenes and Greene exited a close game REALLY early

Greene is fresh off the DL so limited. It doesn't rain here in Cincy anymore. Worst drought in a century.

[boffo13]

Skenes is now the betting favorite to win ROY

[daeve]

kinda crazy that Shota is 15-3, with 19 Quality Starts, a sub-3 era, a hair more than a K per inning and yet isn't top 2 in ROY

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by daeve

kinda crazy that Shota is 15-3, with 19 Quality Starts, a sub-3 era, a hair more than a K per inning and yet isn't top 2 in ROY

Maybe because he’s got one foot in the grave?

[dantheman514]

Originally Posted by boffo13

Skenes is now the betting favorite to win ROY

I wish I would have bet more last week when he was +260 to +280.

[sportsfan12345]

I have Merrill at 28/1 for $150 to win $4,250. I know I should've hedged a week or two ago when Skenes was +490 (not sure what I was thinking). Now Skenes is -150, is it worth the hedge? If so, how much would you put to hedge?

[dantheman514]

Originally Posted by sportsfan12345

I have Merrill at 28/1 for $150 to win $4,250. I know I should've hedged a week or two ago when Skenes was +490 (not sure what I was thinking). Now Skenes is -150, is it worth the hedge? If so, how much would you put to hedge?

Yes, you should still hedge. You've come this far with a really good bet; there is no reason to come away with nothing. I would put at least $200 on Skenes; that way you will at least get your original $150 back.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by sportsfan12345

I have Merrill at 28/1 for $150 to win $4,250. I know I should've hedged a week or two ago when Skenes was +490 (not sure what I was thinking). Now Skenes is -150, is it worth the hedge? If so, how much would you put to hedge?

I would put every dollar you have into PS since there’s no chance he loses this.

[ScooterD]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I would put every dollar you have into PS since there’s no chance he loses this.

If I do and lose, will you replace every dollar? Are you doing it?

[sportsfan12345]

Originally Posted by dantheman514

Yes, you should still hedge. You've come this far with a really good bet; there is no reason to come away with nothing. I would put at least $200 on Skenes; that way you will at least get your original $150 back.

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I would put every dollar you have into PS since there’s no chance he loses this.

Originally Posted by ScooterD

If I do and lose, will you replace every dollar? Are you doing it?

I was thinking about maybe $2K on Skenes - that way I win about $1K on him and $2.2K on Merrill. Just wish I did this weeks ago for $750 which would’ve guaranteed $3.5K.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

This is what an ace can do for a team:

9/20 vs Reds: Mitch Keller -- 8 ER, 1 K, 5 BB, 3.1 IP -- Pirates lose 3-8

9/21 vs Reds: Jared Jones -- 6 ER, 5 K, 3 BB, 5 IP -- Pirates lose 1-7

9/22 vs Reds: Paul Skenes -- 0 ER, 9 K, 0 BB, 5 IP -- Pirates win 2-0

He's the stopper. The Pirates are 15-7 on days he pitches, compared to a record of 58-75 when he doesn't. He should have gone out for at least another inning, having thrown only 73 pitches, but a win is a win.

His ERA is now a crisp 1.99 for the season -- he could be sold in a Dollar Tree store, it's that low. That's 22 starts of historic run prevention with 11.47 K/9.

There are very few players in the league today that a team wouldn't trade for Skenes -- less than 10.

And he's not going to win ROY? My mind is blown.

Skenes is also 6th in the NL with 6.0 WAR, has a .962 WHIP, ERA+ 213 and 11.47 K/9. Here are the pitchers in baseball history that have done that:

Pedro Martinez 2000
Paul Skenes 2024

Skenes is having a historic season and he is winning the ROY. He is not losing to an OF with an OPS+ of 128.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

If I do and lose, will you replace every dollar? Are you doing it?

What’s in it for me if I replace your money?

And no, I am not doing it. Thankfully for me, I don’t live in a state where sports betting is legal.

[whitmm]

The Pirates have 6 games left. Will they let Skenes pitch one of the games against the Yankees? Haven't heard anything about that actually being his last start.

[cj828282]

Originally Posted by whitmm

The Pirates have 6 games left. Will they let Skenes pitch one of the games against the Yankees? Haven't heard anything about that actually being his last start.

Looks like he is on the schedule to start the Saturday game against the Yankees.

[tchronis24]

Originally Posted by whitmm

The Pirates have 6 games left. Will they let Skenes pitch one of the games against the Yankees? Haven't heard anything about that actually being his last start.

Put me in quite a predicament for fantasy baseball as our commissioner sucks and has the championship in the last week of the season. Chose to bench skenes because of the chance he doesn’t play. They’re also playing the yanks which isn’t a walk through the park

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by tchronis24

Put me in quite a predicament for fantasy baseball as our commissioner sucks and has the championship in the last week of the season. Chose to bench skenes because of the chance he doesn’t play. They’re also playing the yanks which isn’t a walk through the park

Will be interesting to see what type of lineup the Yankees throw out there. They will most likely have the #1 seed locked up and I'd expect to see some spring training type lineups the last couple games. Get the stars an AB or two and then rest them.

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

What’s in it for me if I replace your money?

And no, I am not doing it. Thankfully for me, I don’t live in a state where sports betting is legal.

You’d be (more) wealthy, wouldn’t you?

[ThatGuyPal]

Tried telling you guys not to let oddsmakers trick you of of position....and prediction lol

YOE: Your Own Eyes, are still a great metric for judging things like this. How could people really think Skenes wasn't winning ROY?

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by ThatGuyPal

Tried telling you guys not to let oddsmakers trick you of of position....and prediction lol

YOE: Your Own Eyes, are still a great metric for judging things like this. How could people really think Skenes wasn't winning ROY?

Weird, when it's Merrill with the better odds, it's don't let the oddsmakers trick you. But when it's Skenes with the better odds, it's told you so?

And I frame that as someone who isn't going to care either way. The odds played no part in who I would have voted for.

[ThatGuyPal]

Originally Posted by sportsfan12345

I was thinking about maybe $2K on Skenes - that way I win about $1K on him and $2.2K on Merrill. Just wish I did this weeks ago for $750 which would’ve guaranteed $3.5K.

$3k on Skenes if you want to feel good when he wins but still have emergency rainy day money if Miracle Merrill pulls it off. I tried warning people this was going to happen now I'm trying to save you some heartache. People dig way too deep on here into WAR etc....it's obvious, he's already basically a face of the league, same as you could guess pretty easy Ohtani was gonna win ROY. Definitely don't listen to the guy who said bet $200 to make your $150 back when you'd have to bet $225 lol jk good luck either way.

[ThatGuyPal]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Weird, when it's Merrill with the better odds, it's don't let the oddsmakers trick you. But when it's Skenes with the better odds, it's told you so?

And I frame that as someone who isn't going to care either way. The odds played no part in who I would have voted for.

Yes exactly, pretty simple concept don't let them trick you into betting for Merrill when he was the clear fav as it said in OP's post. My original post in here literally said "They will get everyone to put money on Merrill than announce Skenes to make up for the early money on him"

Which clearly happened as people have to now try and hedge that Skenes is fav again. So yeah pretty sure I'm correct unless he isn't ROY lol not sure if you thought you caught something but yes your reply is correct and I was right in it happening lol