Wait ... Paul Skenes won't be winning ROY?!

[StlBen]

I like that the WAR being chosen is always only the one that works for your narrative.
Baseball Referece:
Paul Skenes 5.6
Jackson Merrill 4.0
Jackson Churio 3.9

Fangraphs:
Jackson Merrill 4.9
Paul Skenes 3.9
Jackson Churio 3.7

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Wasn't discrediting Skenes at all there champ.

You are also misremembering Ohtani's season. It wasn't just a couple times between starts. He went on the IL and missed basically all of June. That was 24 of the games he missed. It was a UCL injury that ended his pitching that year and he didn't pitch in 2019.

But for comparison, through the first 56 games, Ohtani made 8 starts totalling 45 innings. And was in the lineup 30 times. Yeah, that's more of a workload than Skenes has had in 8 start stretch. Context is kind of important

LOL I literally was quoting you with the "a couple of times between starts."

And now we are going to chop out an 8 start window to show Ohtani's workload was greater his rookie year? That's absurd. Skenes has 21 starts and counting. That's more workload than Ohtani had in 10 starts and 367 plate appearances.

But again, this isn't to discredit Ohtani or say Skenes was better. It was to combat the false narrative that a player should play a full season to win ROY. That has rarely been the case historically. Workload isn't considered nearly as much for ROY as it is for Cy Young and MVP. Never has been.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by StlBen

I like that the WAR being chosen is always only the one that works for your narrative.
Baseball Referece:
Paul Skenes 5.6
Jackson Merrill 4.0
Jackson Churio 3.9

Fangraphs:
Jackson Merrill 4.9
Paul Skenes 3.9
Jackson Churio 3.7

Fangraphs pitching WAR has been discredited. They don't consider balls hit into play, other than infield pop outs. It has been shown that exit velocity off the bat is directly related to BABIP and under a pitchers control. If you are going to ignore relevant data, your results may not be accurate, at that is the case with Skenes.

[StlBen]

Originally Posted by rats60

Fangraphs pitching WAR has been discredited. They don't consider balls hit into play, other than infield pop outs. It has been shown that exit velocity off the bat is directly related to BABIP and under a pitchers control. If you are going to ignore relevant data, your results may not be accurate, at that is the case with Skenes.

Whatever excuse you want to use to pick and choose only the data that fits your narrative. But I'm sure plenty of voters will use Fangraphs WAR. And in the end it only matters what the voters do.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

LOL I literally was quoting you with the "a couple of times between starts."

And now we are going to chop out an 8 start window to show Ohtani's workload was greater his rookie year? That's absurd. Skenes has 21 starts and counting. That's more workload than Ohtani had in 10 starts and 367 plate appearances.

But again, this isn't to discredit Ohtani or say Skenes was better. It was to combat the false narrative that a player should play a full season to win ROY. That has rarely been the case historically. Workload isn't considered nearly as much for ROY as it is for Cy Young and MVP. Never has been.

Again, context. His starts weren't spread out over an entire season. It was a 56 game stretch before he got injured. When he was pitching, his workload was more than what Skenes did. The injury is a major portion of the Ohtani narrative. I broke it down, because the response was in regards to you saying that Ohtani's workload when he was pitching and hitting wasn't as much as Skenes'. You can't tell me that during the time when Ohtani was doing both that his workload was less than Skenes' at any stretch of the season. Again, not the whole season.

Skenes this season and Ohtani in 2018 are in no way close to the same situation. And to answer the original question, yeah, I would have voted for Andujar over Ohtani.

And maybe it should be considered? Hell, team record used to play a huge factor in MVP voting. W-L record used to play a huge factor into Cy Young voting. Especially with all of the new rules regarding service time. Everyone knew teams were keeping players down to steal extra years of control. With voting results eliminating that manipulation, teams have more incentive to just start them in the bigs, like the Padres did with Merrill.

[jjcan]

Eh. Give the trophy to Skenes already he can rub it with Livy while he watches Merrill and Churio battle in the playoffs.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Again, context. His starts weren't spread out over an entire season. It was a 56 game stretch before he got injured. When he was pitching, his workload was more than what Skenes did. The injury is a major portion of the Ohtani narrative. I broke it down, because the response was in regards to you saying that Ohtani's workload when he was pitching and hitting wasn't as much as Skenes'. You can't tell me that during the time when Ohtani was doing both that his workload was less than Skenes' at any stretch of the season. Again, not the whole season.

Skenes this season and Ohtani in 2018 are in no way close to the same situation. And to answer the original question, yeah, I would have voted for Andujar over Ohtani.

And maybe it should be considered? Hell, team record used to play a huge factor in MVP voting. W-L record used to play a huge factor into Cy Young voting. Especially with all of the new rules regarding service time. Everyone knew teams were keeping players down to steal extra years of control. With voting results eliminating that manipulation, teams have more incentive to just start them in the bigs, like the Padres did with Merrill.

Skenes' workload isn't spread over an entire season either. That's sort of the whole point in the Merrill vs Skenes debate. And missing time due to an injury is historically worse for a campaign than getting called up mid-season. So I don't see your point. Context does matter.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Skenes' workload isn't spread over an entire season either. That's sort of the whole point in the Merrill vs Skenes debate. And missing time due to an injury is historically worse for a campaign than getting called up mid-season. So I don't see your point. Context does matter.

You just said Skenes' workload was more than Ohtani's when he was both hitting and pitching. And that's not true. Throughout the course of a 162 game season, yeah Skene's workload ended up being greater than Ohtani's rookie year. Again, context, Ohtani was injured and no longer pitched. Had the injury not occured and Ohtani continued at the same rate of that 56 game stretch, it would have been greater than Skenes'.

My original workload comment wasn't about Ohtani.

And Skenes' workload this year should as hell isn't greater than Merrill's.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by whitmm

You just said Skenes' workload was more than Ohtani's when he was both hitting and pitching. And that's not true. Throughout the course of a 162 game season, yeah Skene's workload ended up being greater than Ohtani's rookie year. Again, context, Ohtani was injured and no longer pitched. Had the injury not occured and Ohtani continued at the same rate of that 56 game stretch, it would have been greater than Skenes'.



My original workload comment wasn't about Ohtani.



And Skenes' workload this year should as hell isn't greater than Merrill's.

You clearly missed the on ramp for the Ohtani Skenes discussion. Nothing you said has anything to do with it. It was a comment asking if the people detracting from Skenes' case because of workload also detracted from Ohtani's when he won.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

You clearly missed the on ramp for the Ohtani Skenes discussion. Nothing you said has anything to do with it. It was a comment asking if the people detracting from Skenes' case because of workload also detracted from Ohtani's when he won.

Didn't miss it at all. I answered the question. Yes, Ohtani missing a good chunk of time and then not pitching after that absolutely detracts from his case. Just like Skenes not being up right away detracts from his case. Yes, I know that's not his fault and I think it was stupid to keep him down, but it still factors in.

Yeah, Andujar had a greater work load and was one of the better players on a better team. And yes, the fact that Ohtani was just a DH in 2018, while Andujar was playing third, detracts from his case. hche was asking about consistency. Yeah, I'm consistent. Let's be real, Ohtani won because he was extremely hyped coming into the season (sound familiar?). And the mystique of being a two way player absolutely played a factor. The actual numbers are not the reason Ohtani won.

You made the comment that Skenes had a greater workload than Ohtani. Guess what, that has nothing to do with this either. He's not in a competition with Ohtani. His workload is less than Merrill's.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by StlBen

Whatever excuse you want to use to pick and choose only the data that fits your narrative. But I'm sure plenty of voters will use Fangraphs WAR. And in the end it only matters what the voters do.

I've heard writers discuss averaging out the two WARs:

Skenes: 4.75
Merrill: 4.45
Churio: 3.8

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by whitmm

You made the comment that Skenes had a greater workload than Ohtani. Guess what, that has nothing to do with this either. He's not in a competition with Ohtani. His workload is less than Merrill's.

I made that comment in response to your claim that Ohtani's workload was more than Skenes' and that they aren't even comparable. While it isn't relevant to the Merrill/Skenes discussion, it is relevant to your assertion.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

I made that comment in response to your claim that Ohtani's workload was more than Skenes' and that they aren't even comparable. While it isn't relevant to the Merrill/Skenes discussion, it is relevant to your assertion.

Incorrect. My assertion was that Ohtani and Skenes are not similar because Ohtani is also hitting. You jumped in with a comparison of their workloads. When Ohtani is playing as a 2-way player, there is simply nobody else in the game that is comparable to him as an overall package. Injuries derailed Ohtani's rookie season and that's why the workload was down and that's why he shouldn't have won.

When there is a new paragraph started, that's the sign of a new topic. I said that they are the same, and then I started talking about understanding why people would discredit a lesser workload.

Let's be real, hche was trying to pull a "gotcha" because he thinks that the people here saying Merrill should get it would have said Ohtani should have gotten it. Except I'm consistent. I think Merrill should get it this year and I think Andujar should have gotten it in 2018.

Here I will lay this out: Ohtani as a 2 way player is not comparable to Skenes as a pitcher only. Skenes' workload in 2024 is greater than Ohtani's workload overall in 2018. When Ohtani is pitching and dh'ing, his workload is greater than Skenes'.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by StlBen

Whatever excuse you want to use to pick and choose only the data that fits your narrative. But I'm sure plenty of voters will use Fangraphs WAR. And in the end it only matters what the voters do.

I have never used fangraphs and I doubt the voters will either.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by rats60

I have never used fangraphs and I doubt the voters will either.

The voters don't use bWAR either.

[StlBen]

Listening to the Athletics baseball podcast this week where they talk about ROY voting and you know are voters themselves....they talk about using both fangraphs and baseball reference. But you know thats just people that actually vote on awards like this.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Incorrect. My assertion was that Ohtani and Skenes are not similar because Ohtani is also hitting. You jumped in with a comparison of their workloads. When Ohtani is playing as a 2-way player, there is simply nobody else in the game that is comparable to him as an overall package. Injuries derailed Ohtani's rookie season and that's why the workload was down and that's why he shouldn't have won.

When there is a new paragraph started, that's the sign of a new topic. I said that they are the same, and then I started talking about understanding why people would discredit a lesser workload.

Let's be real, hche was trying to pull a "gotcha" because he thinks that the people here saying Merrill should get it would have said Ohtani should have gotten it. Except I'm consistent. I think Merrill should get it this year and I think Andujar should have gotten it in 2018.

Here I will lay this out: Ohtani as a 2 way player is not comparable to Skenes as a pitcher only. Skenes' workload in 2024 is greater than Ohtani's workload overall in 2018. When Ohtani is pitching and dh'ing, his workload is greater than Skenes'.

It's crazy to think you can't compare the workload of a 2 way player with a player who only pitches or hits. That's just being lazy.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

It's crazy to think you can't compare the workload of a 2 way player with a player who only pitches or hits. That's just being lazy.

Where did I say that? No, seriously, where did I say that?

I said that Ohtani as a 2 way player is not comparable. It has nothing to do with workload. I never said it did. You are the one that keeps trying to say I did.

I literally gave you my analysis of their workloads and you come back saying I think you can't compare workloads? Read buddy.

Who do you think should have won the 2018 AL ROY?

[padremurph]

A couple of key RBIs for Merrill last night

[ironfireman]

Merrill up to 7th in NL in fWar 5.0 - 131 wRC+ 149 games

Also noticed that Skenes is getting 5 days rest and only pitching every 6th day.

[bub838]

Nice last start by Skenes.

[blackbears86]

I'd love to see co rookies of the year.


Both players have been fantastic

[fabiani12333]

This is what an ace can do for a team:

9/20 vs Reds: Mitch Keller -- 8 ER, 1 K, 5 BB, 3.1 IP -- Pirates lose 3-8

9/21 vs Reds: Jared Jones -- 6 ER, 5 K, 3 BB, 5 IP -- Pirates lose 1-7

9/22 vs Reds: Paul Skenes -- 0 ER, 9 K, 0 BB, 5 IP -- Pirates win 2-0

He's the stopper. The Pirates are 15-7 on days he pitches, compared to a record of 58-75 when he doesn't. He should have gone out for at least another inning, having thrown only 73 pitches, but a win is a win.

His ERA is now a crisp 1.99 for the season -- he could be sold in a Dollar Tree store, it's that low. That's 22 starts of historic run prevention with 11.47 K/9.

There are very few players in the league today that a team wouldn't trade for Skenes -- less than 10.

And he's not going to win ROY? My mind is blown.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

This is what an ace can do for a team:

9/20 vs Reds: Mitch Keller -- 8 ER, 1 K, 5 BB, 3.1 IP -- Pirates lose 3-8

9/21 vs Reds: Jared Jones -- 6 ER, 5 K, 3 BB, 5 IP -- Pirates lose 1-7

9/22 vs Reds: Paul Skenes -- 0 ER, 9 K, 0 BB, 5 IP -- Pirates win 2-0

He's the stopper. The Pirates are 15-7 on days he pitches, compared to a record of 58-75 when he doesn't. He should have gone out for at least another inning, having thrown only 73 pitches, but a win is a win.

His ERA is now a crisp 1.99 for the season -- he could be sold in a Dollar Tree store, it's that low. That's 22 starts of historic run prevention with 11.47 K/9.

There are very few players in the league today that a team wouldn't trade for Skenes -- less than 10.

And he's not going to win ROY? My mind is blown.

Oooooh, that's smooth. I like that

[PuddleMonkey]

Pretty sure we have laws preventing that from happening.