The Price Index Carnage Is Real

[JRX]

I have no idea how accurate this is, but looking at fangraphs, 198 pitchers are averaging 95mph on their fastball. 112 have a sinker that's avg 95+. Only 12 have a 90mph+ slider so I guess there's that. 34 pitchers are avg a 90mph+ change up.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by JRX

In the short term they can juice the ball, but long term if velocity keeps increasing, they may need to do some more drastic things like moving the mound back.

Perhaps....

But I think the velocity issue will correct itself, as young pitchers and their parents start to realize that a guy like Kyle Hendricks has earned over $80 million in his career, whereas most of the hard-throwers will end up as oft-injured middle relievers who won't even make it six years to free agency and their first big contract.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Much easier to make the strike zone smaller, than to tinker with the mound distance. But for sure the ball needs to be juiced. The strikeouts won't improve, but at least there will by more HR and excitement.

The problem is MLB is slow to evolve. I thought the no shift and bigger bases would have more of an effect. When the NBA and NFL see problems with the product, they seem to make changes until the desired effect takes place. MLB does not do that. I am not even sure if MLB even wants more offense. I could see the owner not wanting more offense, so they can keep salaries of position players lower. Just not enough leadership to keep the game watchable.

Note that home runs are not necessarily exciting.

A great defensive play, a stolen base, and attempt to bunt for a base hit, a triple.....all are more exciting than a solo HR.

Exicting baseball happens when runners are on base....and that's happening less and less frequently.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Note that home runs are not necessarily exciting.

A great defensive play, a stolen base, and attempt to bunt for a base hit, a triple.....all are more exciting than a solo HR.

Exicting baseball happens when runners are on base....and that's happening less and less frequently.

I agree exciting baseball happens with men on base....but I enjoy watching the players on my team hit HR. I also enjoy watching HR of the players I collect.

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Crews opened up above $400. Now we’re half that. It’s the opening prices that matter, not the prices after players have flopped. I’d take the bet that Crews is never $400 raw again. He doesn’t have what it takes to be hobby good. But there are enough people out there buying this stuff who have no clue what they’re doing. We need to weed those people out. But it appears they have an endless supply of money to piss away.

Crews was hitting .220 in double a when bowman came out. Just a pump job with no reasoning behind it.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by JRX

In the short term they can juice the ball, but long term if velocity keeps increasing, they may need to do some more drastic things like moving the mound back.

The easiest solution would be to lower the strike zone.

Originally Posted by 80s Kid

And then they expanded by 4 teams in 1969. The problem is pitching is too good at missing bats and teams are still emphasizing power over contact. Too many guys chasing balls out of the zone.

I don't like the idea of moving the mound back as its such a fundamental change. I wish the league would just be more open to expanding sooner but that would just be a short term solution, and I'm not sure two more teams would be enough to dilute pitching talent.

We need a team like the Guardians making it to the WS and showing everyone else that you can win with a lineup that promotes contact over strike outs. Hobby wise, people have to actually want to collect these type of players for it to matter for prices.

We need a 1961-1978 type of expansion. 10 teams in less than 20 years.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Perhaps....

But I think the velocity issue will correct itself, as young pitchers and their parents start to realize that a guy like Kyle Hendricks has earned over $80 million in his career, whereas most of the hard-throwers will end up as oft-injured middle relievers who won't even make it six years to free agency and their first big contract.

Kyle Harrison is the very best soft thrower of his era. He made $80,000,000. The very best hard thrower is deGrom at $187,000,000, even with all of his injuries.

There's also the little issue of if you don't average 90 MPH on your hardest pitch, MLB won't even let you into the league. Last year there were only 2 rookie pitchers who were allowed to throw 10+ IP with an average velo of below 90 MPH. Both were DFA'd (ie thrown out with the trash) this spring. So far this year there is exactly one...a repeat offender from last year, Cooper Criswell and his 89.5 MPH sinker.

Originally Posted by mfw13

Note that home runs are not necessarily exciting.

A great defensive play, a stolen base, and attempt to bunt for a base hit, a triple.....all are more exciting than a solo HR.

Exicting baseball happens when runners are on base....and that's happening less and less frequently.

The market disagrees with you.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Kyle Harrison is the very best soft thrower of his era. He made $80,000,000. The very best hard thrower is deGrom at $187,000,000, even with all of his injuries.

There's also the little issue of if you don't average 90 MPH on your hardest pitch, MLB won't even let you into the league. Last year there were only 2 rookie pitchers who were allowed to throw 10+ IP with an average velo of below 90 MPH. Both were DFA'd (ie thrown out with the trash) this spring. So far this year there is exactly one...a repeat offender from last year, Cooper Criswell and his 89.5 MPH sinker.

The market disagrees with you.

Yeah I had the same thought. You can't be Kyle Hendricks today and make the majors. Sure Imanaga doesn't throw hard, but he was also down 2mph his last start and got obliterated. Teams are always going to chase velocity.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by JRX

Yeah I had the same thought. You can't be Kyle Hendricks today and make the majors.

Right now, you can't.

But that hasn't been the case in the past, and may not be the case in the future....that's the point I was trying to make.

Attitudes and viewpoints within the game change over time, and all the TJ injuries are going to make people re-examine the "max velocity" approach.

Because for every Gerrit Cole or Jacob DeGrom, you've got ten kids who either never make the majors because they blow out their arms, and/or get consigned to low-earning middle relief jobs and never make it to free agency.

[80s Kid]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Right now, you can't.

But that hasn't been the case in the past, and may not be the case in the future....that's the point I was trying to make.

Attitudes and viewpoints within the game change over time, and all the TJ injuries are going to make people re-examine the "max velocity" approach.

Because for every Gerrit Cole or Jacob DeGrom, you've got ten kids who either never make the majors because they blow out their arms, and/or get consigned to low-earning middle relief jobs and never make it to free agency.

And then coach club teams in Arizona and Florida while they try to make another roster every spring.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Right now, you can't.

But that hasn't been the case in the past, and may not be the case in the future....that's the point I was trying to make.

Attitudes and viewpoints within the game change over time, and all the TJ injuries are going to make people re-examine the "max velocity" approach.

Because for every Gerrit Cole or Jacob DeGrom, you've got ten kids who either never make the majors because they blow out their arms, and/or get consigned to low-earning middle relief jobs and never make it to free agency.

This is simply not true. Throughout the history of the game, the best pitchers have always been among the hardest throwers. You'll find an outlier every now and again, but even then it's very likely they will have had above average velocity.

I am not kidding you when I tell you that every coach at every level in the history of the game has looked at how hard the pitcher throws as the first data point. That's how obvious the importance of velocity is. The difference between today and back then (and back then and way back then) is the training methods are better, so guys throw harder.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

This is simply not true. Throughout the history of the game, the best pitchers have always been among the hardest throwers. You'll find an outlier every now and again, but even then it's very likely they will have had above average velocity.

I am not kidding you when I tell you that every coach at every level in the history of the game has looked at how hard the pitcher throws as the first data point. That's how obvious the importance of velocity is. The difference between today and back then (and back then and way back then) is the training methods are better, so guys throw harder.

All true....

But being "amongst the hardest throwers" is very different than where we're at now, because Koufax aside, the hard throwers of the past were smart enough to figure out how to consistently throw hard without destroying their arms.

You state that "training methods are better", which is nonsense....if training methods are better, why are so many more pitchers getting hurt at young ages? To me that seems to be pretty strong evidence that training methods are worse, simply because they are resulting in much higher rates of injury.

After all, it doesn't make a difference how hard you can throw the ball if you're always too hurt to pitch!

Medically speaking, any given arm has a limited number of 100mph+ pitches it can deliver before the arm breaks down and requires surgery. My argument is that at some point people are going to realize that sitting 95-96 and dialing it up to 100 only when you need to get out of a jam is going to result in far better long-term outcomes than try to throw every pitch 100+ like modern relievers are being taught to do. Likewise, parents are going to realize that the key to earning a lot of $$$ is to stay healthy long enough to get than first free agency contract after six years as a solid starter, NOT becoming a hard throwing and easily replaceable middle reliever/closer who gets discarded as soon as they get hurt and never makes it to free agency.

[JRX]

The training methods are better, that's why 198 guys are averaging 95+ on their 4 seam fastballs.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by JRX

The training methods are better, that's why 198 guys are averaging 95+ on their 4 seam fastballs.

????

The purpose of "training" is to perform at a high level while staying healthy.

Doesn't make a different how hard you throw if you're always on the IL.....

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by JRX

The training methods are better, that's why 198 guys are averaging 95+ on their 4 seam fastballs.

It is this in a nutshell! The Athletic has a story on this right now. If you want to pitch in the MLB you now have to throw with velocity and have to spin you breaking pitches designed in a lab to defeat MLB hitters. If you throw 90 and have pinpoint command but MLB hitters crush your stuff it does not matter. Teams want players that miss bats and strike guys out.

This is the new normal. Now the injury discussion is just a consequence of the stress placed on your arm. MLB teams know the injuries will happen...and likely can't be prevented. This is the type of pitcher that is coveted.

[towerymt]

Carnage.

I've made offers on two cards from two different sellers in the past two days which each resulted in:

1. a counter offer -- followed by;
2. a message stating that they will accept my initial offer.

Pure carnage.

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

It is this in a nutshell! The Athletic has a story on this right now. If you want to pitch in the MLB you now have to throw with velocity and have to spin you breaking pitches designed in a lab to defeat MLB hitters. If you throw 90 and have pinpoint command but MLB hitters crush your stuff it does not matter. Teams want players that miss bats and strike guys out.

This is the new normal. Now the injury discussion is just a consequence of the stress placed on your arm. MLB teams know the injuries will happen...and likely can't be prevented. This is the type of pitcher that is coveted.

yeah, same as basketball and football. If your measurables don't meet the minimum it doesn't really matter how good you are. The training methods and analytics have been fined tuned to really maximize results. Pitchers really only train for velocity and spin since that is what is going to move them up the ranks. MLB won't care about the injuries as long as the pipeline of young replacements stays full. The answer is more pitchers pitching less innings. I can see expanded rosters to fit in 2-3 more pitchers. Starters only going through the lineup twice or 60ish pitches, whichever comes first. 6-man rotations and everybody else pitching 1 inning maybe 2 if low pitch count and rest.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

The answer is more pitchers pitching less innings. I can see expanded rosters to fit in 2-3 more pitchers. Starters only going through the lineup twice or 60ish pitches, whichever comes first. 6-man rotations and everybody else pitching 1 inning maybe 2 if low pitch count and rest.

The problem is that what you describe is a decidedly unappealing product to a large segment of fans.

I want to watch stud starters trying to throw complete-game shutouts, not a parade of nine anonymous relievers I've never heard of each pitch an inning.

People like me (I'm 54) who grew up watching Ryan, Seaver, Carlton, Maddux, Clemens, Pedro, Randy Johnson, etc. don't want to watch relievers.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

yeah, same as basketball and football. If your measurables don't meet the minimum it doesn't really matter how good you are. The training methods and analytics have been fined tuned to really maximize results. Pitchers really only train for velocity and spin since that is what is going to move them up the ranks. MLB won't care about the injuries as long as the pipeline of young replacements stays full. The answer is more pitchers pitching less innings. I can see expanded rosters to fit in 2-3 more pitchers. Starters only going through the lineup twice or 60ish pitches, whichever comes first. 6-man rotations and everybody else pitching 1 inning maybe 2 if low pitch count and rest.

I also just gave the 4 seam numbers on fangraphs. When you add in 2-seam, Sinkers, and Cutters, you're at over 200 pitchers averaging 95+. That's 6 to 7 guys per team which is over half the pitchers on every staff.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by mfw13

The problem is that what you describe is a decidedly unappealing product to a large segment of fans.

I want to watch stud starters trying to throw complete-game shutouts, not a parade of nine anonymous relievers I've never heard of each pitch an inning.

People like me (I'm 54) who grew up watching Ryan, Seaver, Carlton, Maddux, Clemens, Pedro, Randy Johnson, etc. don't want to watch relievers.

MLB does not care about you or what you want. They care about winning (mostly) and making money. It is a lot cheaper with win with a bunch or effective starters and relievers throwing gas with a good defense, than to pay for aces and and guys who can hit.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

MLB does not care about you or what you want. They care about winning (mostly) and making money. It is a lot cheaper with win with a bunch or effective starters and relievers throwing gas with a good defense, than to pay for aces and and guys who can hit.

If the owners had their way, you'd never see a stud starter again, much cheaper to have 3 guys each throwing 100mph pitch 3 innings etc.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by JRX

If the owners had their way, you'd never see a stud starter again, much cheaper to have 3 guys each throwing 100mph pitch 3 innings etc.

This isn't really true. If all pitchers were fully equal, they would spend the money saved on the difference making hitters.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

MLB does not care about you or what you want. They care about winning (mostly) and making money. It is a lot cheaper with win with a bunch or effective starters and relievers throwing gas with a good defense, than to pay for aces and and guys who can hit.

The game is going to get pretty boring if the games are dominated by the bullpen and you have about half a dozen elite bats across the entire league.

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by mfw13

The problem is that what you describe is a decidedly unappealing product to a large segment of fans.

I want to watch stud starters trying to throw complete-game shutouts, not a parade of nine anonymous relievers I've never heard of each pitch an inning.

People like me (I'm 54) who grew up watching Ryan, Seaver, Carlton, Maddux, Clemens, Pedro, Randy Johnson, etc. don't want to watch relievers.

I agree with you, but I am only a few years younger than you. There is a whole generation getting use to pitcher with short outings.

Originally Posted by seanrs1

MLB does not care about you or what you want. They care about winning (mostly) and making money. It is a lot cheaper with win with a bunch or effective starters and relievers throwing gas with a good defense, than to pay for aces and and guys who can hit.

Baseball is largely run by spreadsheets now. Spreading out your salaries on good, deep, young (team controlled) pitching maybe the future. Spreads the risk of TJ out as well. There will still be some deep pocketed teams that want and can afford the workhorse guys. They just may be a dying breed. Skeenes will be interesting to watch going forward.

[ThoseBackPages]

no reason for a team to have a starter go more than five or six innings.

Baseball is first and foremost, a business. having pitchers pitch too much is bad for business