The Price Index Carnage Is Real

[80s Kid]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

That’s my point. Nobody would invest in junk bonds at the same yield as short term treasuries. Hence, nobody should be investing in sports cards when the potential yield is no better than the stock market.

Fair point but then my card collection is less than 1% of what I have in markets so preaching to the choir.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by JRX

Are 2018 Ohtani autos down 90%?

Down about 20%.

[peterose4hof]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

That’s my point. Nobody would invest in junk bonds at the same yield as short term treasuries. Hence, nobody should be investing in sports cards when the potential yield is no better than the stock market.

Originally Posted by solt0131

That's why it's time for a lot of you guys to get out and don't look back. Take your money now while it's still worth something. Venture into something else.

I'm probably not alone in that, my "real" money is in real estate, 401K, Roth IRA, etc

My "fun" money is in cards. Most of us in this situation don't want to get out because we enjoy it.

I'm still sitting on piles of "fun" money from all my wins during the pandemic craziness. Sure most of the stuff I held is down significantly, but all the stuff I sold along the way was for huge profits. For example: the early years of the Montgomery Club was a license to print money.

Like most, I am being cautious with where I spend my money. I don't rip any new wax, but still scratch the itch with products that have come back down to reasonable prices. EX: 2021 UEFA Flashbacks, Star Wars blaster cases, and Heritage cases from year's past.

[Stifle]

I went heavy picking up every rare Tom Brady card in 00 and early 01. I had 4 of his Elite Status cards out of /10. It was just a hobby but it took care of a huge chunk that I had vested in the hobby. As much money as I have vested into the hobby, I invested more into 401K.

It’s good to diversify.

[ScooterD]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Crews opened up above $400. Now we’re half that. It’s the opening prices that matter, not the prices after players have flopped. I’d take the bet that Crews is never $400 raw again. He doesn’t have what it takes to be hobby good. But there are enough people out there buying this stuff who have no clue what they’re doing. We need to weed those people out. But it appears they have an endless supply of money to piss away.

This isn’t new. The first 2011 Bowman Bryce Harper paper auto sold on release day for $1,100 - raw.

After a ROY, 2 MVPs, 7 AS selections, and an on-track HOF career, the card is selling for less than 25% of that initial sale.

The truth is that hyped prospects usually don’t deliver in the long-term. Money is made from early sales or sleepers

[JRX]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

This isn’t new. The first 2011 Bowman Bryce Harper paper auto sold on release day for $1,100 - raw.

After a ROY, 2 MVPs, 7 AS selections, and an on-track HOF career, the card is selling for less than 25% of that initial sale.

The truth is that hyped prospects usually don’t deliver in the long-term. Money is made from early sales or sleepers

There also haven't been any prospects really lighting it up consistently the last few years. Sure Jrod had a good year last year, now he has no power. Same for Carroll. The only one that has is Witt and he's on KC so nobody sees him.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by mfw13

The problem with trying to flip cards for a profit is transaction costs, especially on online platforms like EBay.

In many states you have to pay sales tax when you buy (for me in WA, it's 10.25%, since we have no income tax).

Then when you re-sell it, you've got to give EBay 12-15%.

So if I were to buy a $100 card to flip, I would have to sell it for roughly $130 just to break even.

I'd guess that most people who claim to make money flipping conveniently omit transaction costs from their profit/loss calculations.....

You don't have to pay sales tax if you are a dealer though. You are exempt. The vendor's license costs $30 or less. You can submit that to eBay as well and they will knock off the sales tax for all purchases. If you buy from a card shop, just bring the vendor's license.

Being a show dealer makes a difference as well. If I buy something at a show, I try to price it immediately for my showcase and that's where a lot of those flips actually occur. So take out the sales tax and the eBay fees and you can sell that $100 card for $120 and you are good to go. And if it's small stuff like $1-$5, I'm probably paying 40-60% and if I don't flip it that day it will be in my boxes for the next show.

My last big show deal in April is just about paid for and I still have thousands of cards left, so every show I do for the rest of this year is with inventory that is already paid for, and that means I can also absorb those eBay costs if I choose to list some of it.

The key to flipping is really buying in bulk and then having multiple means to move the stuff. My sister opened a store in Florida last month and she is taking a section of the store and converting it to a card shop for me, which she will run from 900 miles away at a 20% commission. So a point will come where I am selling at shows, selling on eBay, and selling in my sister's store, all at the same time. That's how you compound revenue and make money while you sleep. Then just add revenue streams from there. Maybe I open a COMC account and sell there. Maybe I get on MySlabs. Maybe I consign to another local store. You could get to a half dozen revenue streams this way.

If you look at everything in a vacuum you could talk yourself out of a $100 purchase because your math is telling you that you need to sell that card for $130 to break even. But if you simply add a vendor's license, increase your volume, and sell from multiple streams, those numbers start looking so much better.

[peterose4hof]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

You don't have to pay sales tax if you are a dealer though. You are exempt. The vendor's license costs $30 or less. You can submit that to eBay as well and they will knock off the sales tax for all purchases. If you buy from a card shop, just bring the vendor's license.

Being a show dealer makes a difference as well. If I buy something at a show, I try to price it immediately for my showcase and that's where a lot of those flips actually occur. So take out the sales tax and the eBay fees and you can sell that $100 card for $120 and you are good to go. And if it's small stuff like $1-$5, I'm probably paying 40-60% and if I don't flip it that day it will be in my boxes for the next show.

My last big show deal in April is just about paid for and I still have thousands of cards left, so every show I do for the rest of this year is with inventory that is already paid for, and that means I can also absorb those eBay costs if I choose to list some of it.

The key to flipping is really buying in bulk and then having multiple means to move the stuff. My sister opened a store in Florida last month and she is taking a section of the store and converting it to a card shop for me, which she will run from 900 miles away at a 20% commission. So a point will come where I am selling at shows, selling on eBay, and selling in my sister's store, all at the same time. That's how you compound revenue and make money while you sleep. Then just add revenue streams from there. Maybe I open a COMC account and sell there. Maybe I get on MySlabs. Maybe I consign to another local store. You could get to a half dozen revenue streams this way.

If you look at everything in a vacuum you could talk yourself out of a $100 purchase because your math is telling you that you need to sell that card for $130 to break even. But if you simply add a vendor's license, increase your volume, and sell from multiple streams, those numbers start looking so much better.

Where in Florida?

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

You don't have to pay sales tax if you are a dealer though. You are exempt. The vendor's license costs $30 or less. You can submit that to eBay as well and they will knock off the sales tax for all purchases. If you buy from a card shop, just bring the vendor's license.

Being a show dealer makes a difference as well. If I buy something at a show, I try to price it immediately for my showcase and that's where a lot of those flips actually occur. So take out the sales tax and the eBay fees and you can sell that $100 card for $120 and you are good to go. And if it's small stuff like $1-$5, I'm probably paying 40-60% and if I don't flip it that day it will be in my boxes for the next show.

My last big show deal in April is just about paid for and I still have thousands of cards left, so every show I do for the rest of this year is with inventory that is already paid for, and that means I can also absorb those eBay costs if I choose to list some of it.

The key to flipping is really buying in bulk and then having multiple means to move the stuff. My sister opened a store in Florida last month and she is taking a section of the store and converting it to a card shop for me, which she will run from 900 miles away at a 20% commission. So a point will come where I am selling at shows, selling on eBay, and selling in my sister's store, all at the same time. That's how you compound revenue and make money while you sleep. Then just add revenue streams from there. Maybe I open a COMC account and sell there. Maybe I get on MySlabs. Maybe I consign to another local store. You could get to a half dozen revenue streams this way.

If you look at everything in a vacuum you could talk yourself out of a $100 purchase because your math is telling you that you need to sell that card for $130 to break even. But if you simply add a vendor's license, increase your volume, and sell from multiple streams, those numbers start looking so much better.

All true....but the time that requires turns what is a "hobby" for most of us into essentially a full-time occupation. Selling at high volumes take time and effort.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

rwperu34....now that the market is below 2019 levels, do you have a prediction to when the market might rise again? Or is everything going to all go down for the foreseeable future as if this is junk wax 2.0?

If I knew, I'd be rich. All I can say is at some point it will level off and even start to rise again. The question is, when?

[imbluestreak23]

High volume does take a lot of time and effort. I'm on pace for my highest grossing sales year and 2nd best ROI in the 4 years post Rona despite extremely condenses margins and condensed competition.

It's getting exhausting doing it with a 9-5 (8-4), but for now, worth it.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Crews opened up above $400. Now we’re half that. It’s the opening prices that matter, not the prices after players have flopped. I’d take the bet that Crews is never $400 raw again. He doesn’t have what it takes to be hobby good. But there are enough people out there buying this stuff who have no clue what they’re doing. We need to weed those people out. But it appears they have an endless supply of money to piss away.

Dylan Crews is a great example. At the time of release he was in the same prospect bucket as James Wood, plays for the same team, and is a year older. He should be a little bit less than Wood. Instead he came out at 2x. As an aside, despite being 2x overpriced (along with everybody else), the EV of opening a box was still massively negative!

Fast forward to today (or two weeks ago), and Wood is now in a higher prospect bucket than Crews. The top bucket, in fact. And yet their price difference barely makes up for the age. Crews' price is going south between now and November. If he loses 1/3 of his value (give or take performance), he'll still be priced higher than similar rated prospects are now. Those prospects themselves have at least two months of price beatings ahead of them (again, give or take performance). It's not out of the question that Crews is down 50% or more in the next five months. In fact that might be the median outcome.

I know most of this board thinks that new release pricing is the thing that matters, but it's not. The forces affecting Dylan Crews at release have the same effect on Willie Mays and Hank Aaron. The comparison points for prospects are the young MLB stars, prime aged stars, and over 30 superstars. Guys who are not newly released. New release pricing should be ignored altogether....unless busting newly released wax.

[rwperu34]

Price Index up 4% from June 2 to June 22. Now only down 7% on the year. This happened last year too. I think we're starting to feel the effects of The National. I expect it to stay flat between now and mid August.

[JRX]

It also doesn't help that offense is down across the board. League ops is down 30 pts vs last year. In terms of OPS, this season ranks 22nd lowest since 1946. 2022 was just behind it. So you have 2 out of the last 3 years having horrible offensive seasons. When you compare to NFL and NBA which either change the rules to limit defense or in the latter case nobody bothers trying, MLB is going the opposite way in terms of offense. The top 10 seasons in terms of K% have all happened in the last 10 years.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by JRX

It also doesn't help that offense is down across the board. League ops is down 30 pts vs last year. In terms of OPS, this season ranks 22nd lowest since 1946. 2022 was just behind it. So you have 2 out of the last 3 years having horrible offensive seasons. When you compare to NFL and NBA which either change the rules to limit defense or in the latter case nobody bothers trying, MLB is going the opposite way in terms of offense. The top 10 seasons in terms of K% have all happened in the last 10 years.

I hope MLB makes improving offense a priority next season...but we know they won't. The should realize fans want to see more offense and exciting plays. MLB pitching has just evolved way faster than hitting. And I agree it clearly hurts the baseball card market.

With that being said, I think it makes it even more incredible the type of year Ohtani and Judge (and a few others) are having. I truly believe that buying the blue chip guys this year in a down market will prove to be a good long term strategy.

[JRX]

The 4 lowest league ba were 1968, 2024, 1967, 2022. It also doesn't help that a lot of people's memory are the steroid era which had the greatest offensive seasons on a league wide basis. League BA is down 24pts since 2004. I agree that it makes what the top guys are doing even more impressive. There numbers would also be up if it was 20 years ago. They'd all be hitting .350 with 50 HR and 140+ RBI.

[seanrs1]

If I were running MLB next year I would juice the ball, and emphasize a smaller strike zone to the umps. I don't know what viewership is like for MLB, since it is so regional, but I can't imagine its great.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

If I knew, I'd be rich. All I can say is at some point it will level off and even start to rise again. The question is, when?

Some folks forget junk Wax 1.0 wasn't all downhill. Someone who picked the right cards from the era made out like a bandit if they held long enough, even if they sold prior to the covid bonanza.

[JRX]

When was junk wax 1.0?

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I hope MLB makes improving offense a priority next season...but we know they won't. The should realize fans want to see more offense and exciting plays. MLB pitching has just evolved way faster than hitting.

I'm not really sure how much MLB can do in the short term to improve offense....certainly they can tinker around the edges, but they can't suddenly teach all the hitters who have been raised during the "launch-angle revolution" how to choke up with two strikes, learn how to bunt for base hits, and focus on making contact.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Some folks forget junk Wax 1.0 wasn't all downhill.

The junk wax era was great for collectors.....tons of choices of what to collect, all available at reasonable prices.

It was just lousy for investors hoping that their cards would go up in value....

But some of my favorite products/designs were from the 1992-93 era....

[JRX]

Originally Posted by mfw13

I'm not really sure how much MLB can do in the short term to improve offense....certainly they can tinker around the edges, but they can't suddenly teach all the hitters who have been raised during the "launch-angle revolution" how to choke up with two strikes, learn how to bunt for base hits, and focus on making contact.

In the short term they can juice the ball, but long term if velocity keeps increasing, they may need to do some more drastic things like moving the mound back.

[80s Kid]

Originally Posted by JRX

The 4 lowest league ba were 1968, 2024, 1967, 2022. It also doesn't help that a lot of people's memory are the steroid era which had the greatest offensive seasons on a league wide basis. League BA is down 24pts since 2004. I agree that it makes what the top guys are doing even more impressive. There numbers would also be up if it was 20 years ago. They'd all be hitting .350 with 50 HR and 140+ RBI.

And then they expanded by 4 teams in 1969. The problem is pitching is too good at missing bats and teams are still emphasizing power over contact. Too many guys chasing balls out of the zone.

I don't like the idea of moving the mound back as its such a fundamental change. I wish the league would just be more open to expanding sooner but that would just be a short term solution, and I'm not sure two more teams would be enough to dilute pitching talent.

We need a team like the Guardians making it to the WS and showing everyone else that you can win with a lineup that promotes contact over strike outs. Hobby wise, people have to actually want to collect these type of players for it to matter for prices.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by JRX

In the short term they can juice the ball, but long term if velocity keeps increasing, they may need to do some more drastic things like moving the mound back.

Much easier to make the strike zone smaller, than to tinker with the mound distance. But for sure the ball needs to be juiced. The strikeouts won't improve, but at least there will by more HR and excitement.

The problem is MLB is slow to evolve. I thought the no shift and bigger bases would have more of an effect. When the NBA and NFL see problems with the product, they seem to make changes until the desired effect takes place. MLB does not do that. I am not even sure if MLB even wants more offense. I could see the owner not wanting more offense, so they can keep salaries of position players lower. Just not enough leadership to keep the game watchable.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Much easier to make the strike zone smaller, than to tinker with the mound distance. But for sure the ball needs to be juiced. The strikeouts won't improve, but at least there will by more HR and excitement.

The problem is MLB is slow to evolve. I thought the no shift and bigger bases would have more of an effect. When the NBA and NFL see problems with the product, they seem to make changes until the desired effect takes place. MLB does not do that. I am not even sure if MLB even wants more offense. I could see the owner not wanting more offense, so they can keep salaries of position players lower. Just not enough leadership to keep the game watchable.

I think the recent changes made highlight even more that the issue is velocity. Starters almost never go 3x through a lineup and everyone out of the bullpen is throwing 95+ with crazy sliders. A batter's reaction time can only be so fast.