Topps Buyback Offer Program - Page 14

kidbrando · 11-28-2022, 07:45 PM

My Logic - Buy 2022 Topps Chrome case for $1599

Expect total of 24 Paul GoldSchmidt or Aaron Judge at $480 at a minimum. That's 1 each per box. Maybe I pull a refractor or color as a bonus.

Case costs drops to ~$1100

Phenomenal Value - thoughts?

mikejones · 11-28-2022, 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kidbrando

My Logic - Buy 2022 Topps Chrome case for $1599

Expect total of 24 Paul GoldSchmidt or Aaron Judge at $480 at a minimum. That's 1 each per box. Maybe I pull a refractor or color as a bonus.

Case costs drops to ~$1100

Phenomenal Value - thoughts?

The thing is that you don't get 1 judge or golgy per box. Maybe 10-12 total of both per case if you're lucky. It's a losing proposition.

Head1290 · 11-28-2022, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kidbrando

My Logic - Buy 2022 Topps Chrome case for $1599

Expect total of 24 Paul GoldSchmidt or Aaron Judge at $480 at a minimum. That's 1 each per box. Maybe I pull a refractor or color as a bonus.

Case costs drops to ~$1100

Phenomenal Value - thoughts?

My case had 2 refractors and 11 base I opened up a month ago.

kidbrando · 11-28-2022, 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Head1290

My case had 2 refractors and 11 base I opened up a month ago.

Awesome! That would work.

seanbros55 · 11-29-2022, 12:48 AM

Guess I’ll never complete my base logofractor set, as I still need both cards.

On the plus side, the 2 Goldschmidt cards I pulled from the base packs just became the 2 most valuable cards I pulled from my 5 logofractor boxes…

anusinha · 11-29-2022, 12:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kidbrando

My Logic - Buy 2022 Topps Chrome case for $1599

Expect total of 24 Paul GoldSchmidt or Aaron Judge at $480 at a minimum. That's 1 each per box. Maybe I pull a refractor or color as a bonus.

Case costs drops to ~$1100

Phenomenal Value - thoughts?

plus even at $1100 that case is a ripoff

Pacmeyer · 11-29-2022, 01:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by anusinha

plus even at $1100 that case is a ripoff

and any wax from the trade in will probably be overpriced so you get ripped off twice

Chrominator · 11-29-2022, 09:53 AM

I wanna know what's up with the so-called "Sonicfractor" release.

bub838 · 11-29-2022, 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kidbrando

My Logic - Buy 2022 Topps Chrome case for $1599

Expect total of 24 Paul GoldSchmidt or Aaron Judge at $480 at a minimum. That's 1 each per box. Maybe I pull a refractor or color as a bonus.

Case costs drops to ~$1100

Phenomenal Value - thoughts?

Here's results of someone who had the same idea, they only pulled 8 MVP base. The rest of the contents were very underwhelming.

https://twitter.com/GrandSalamiSC/st...Ro1eJsohetR93w

Not sure trusting Topps collation is a good move.

towerymt · 11-29-2022, 10:07 AM

Topps finding another way to sell garbage. Fantastic!

RaceDog · 11-29-2022, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bub838

Here's results of someone who had the same idea, they only pulled 8 MVP base. The rest of the contents were very underwhelming.

https://twitter.com/GrandSalamiSC/st...Ro1eJsohetR93w

Not sure trusting Topps collation is a good move.

I got 8 base and 2 refractors in my jumbo case for reference.

ewokpelts · 11-29-2022, 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by seanbros55

Guess I’ll never complete my base logofractor set, as I still need both cards.

On the plus side, the 2 Goldschmidt cards I pulled from the base packs just became the 2 most valuable cards I pulled from my 5 logofractor boxes…

April 2023

hermanotarjeta · 11-29-2022, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ewokpelts

April 2023

Exactly this.

However, if the vast majority of the cards are redeemed in the promo and topps destroys them all, it really will be tougher to find.

troesports · 11-29-2022, 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kidbrando

My Logic - Buy 2022 Topps Chrome case for $1599

Expect total of 24 Paul GoldSchmidt or Aaron Judge at $480 at a minimum. That's 1 each per box. Maybe I pull a refractor or color as a bonus.

Case costs drops to ~$1100

Phenomenal Value - thoughts?

That math is flawed. Why would you expect 24 Goldschmidt/Judges in a hobby case? Each box only has 96 cards in it and there is a 220-card checklist. Even with perfect collation you would be into your third box before pulling one each of Goldschmidt and Judge.

ClevelandIC · 11-29-2022, 01:47 PM

I did some napkin math on this.

24 Packs of 4 Cards - Most of the time 1 of those cards is a non-base card.

24x3x12 = 864 base cards

864 is very very close to 4 full sets. So we'll say for S&G's you hopefully get 4 base of each per case. This is all assuming perfect odd rates but we know that is not how Topps has been doing business the last 18 months.

8 Refractors, 4 Prism and 1-2 color per box (Again on Average) would yield ~162 Parallels. 162/220 = 73.6% (By the way, this is not how odds work, but for quick math and to temper expectations) You could hopefully get one parallel of one of them, MAYBE 2.

My educated guess is you would average right around $200 of buyback credit per case.

BUT, I will take it one step further because this is how I justified buying a case during the $1,600 price BO was offering on BF.

If you sell your Silver packs for ~$40 each and calculate $200 for Buyback Credit your floor case ripping price is $920 or $77 per Box.

jrubbo23 · 11-30-2022, 01:50 PM

That was fast. Mailed out cards Monday and got credit today.

bub838 · 11-30-2022, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ClevelandIC

I did some napkin math on this.

24 Packs of 4 Cards - Most of the time 1 of those cards is a non-base card.

24x3x12 = 864 base cards

864 is very very close to 4 full sets. So we'll say for S&G's you hopefully get 4 base of each per case. This is all assuming perfect odd rates but we know that is not how Topps has been doing business the last 18 months.

8 Refractors, 4 Prism and 1-2 color per box (Again on Average) would yield ~162 Parallels. 162/220 = 73.6% (By the way, this is not how odds work, but for quick math and to temper expectations) You could hopefully get one parallel of one of them, MAYBE 2.

My educated guess is you would average right around $200 of buyback credit per case.

BUT, I will take it one step further because this is how I justified buying a case during the $1,600 price BO was offering on BF.

If you sell your Silver packs for ~$40 each and calculate $200 for Buyback Credit your floor case ripping price is $920 or $77 per Box.

Jeeze, even if you grind out singles on ebay- is there 77$ worth of value in a box?

ClevelandIC · 11-30-2022, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bub838

Jeeze, even if you grind out singles on ebay- is there 77$ worth of value in a box?

I honestly don't think so but the possibility of hitting a Julio auto still exists. Even if the odds are too high to even think about. Even at $77 per box I would guess 70% of boxes would still be losers.

JoeAdam · 11-30-2022, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bub838

Jeeze, even if you grind out singles on ebay- is there 77$ worth of value in a box?

My jumbo box had 5 autos worth maybe $20 combined. Would be tough.

hermanotarjeta · 11-30-2022, 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ClevelandIC

I honestly don't think so but the possibility of hitting a Julio auto still exists. Even if the odds are too high to even think about. Even at $77 per box I would guess 70% of boxes would still be losers.

Over 90% of the boxes would still be losers.

ClevelandIC · 11-30-2022, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Over 90% of the boxes would still be losers.

No way to prove it but I'd take the bet that more than 10% of boxes would have contents that sell for over 70%. Just conjecture but there are a lot of individual cards that will sell for $78 or more.

dale · 11-30-2022, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ClevelandIC

I honestly don't think so but the possibility of hitting a Julio auto still exists.

I actually pulled a blue Julio auto #/150 in my third blaster this year. Nothing close to that afterwards, but just to let everyone know it can happen.

eastbayak · 11-30-2022, 05:33 PM

Just sent in 6 cards (4 base + 2 logofractors) to one of the big 3. I would've sent them to BO but I already have a $25 gift code with the other retailer.

I actually pulled 2 logofractors from my logofractor set but I can't pass up on $40 per. I should be able to re-buy those cards after the buyback deadline for a total of $15-$20.

eb12057 · 11-30-2022, 07:10 PM

I just opened an hta box. I hit one of each in my last 2 packs and a Judge Heart of the City. I’m assuming they don’t take the Heart of the City inserts? I did hit my first Red auto ever, of Stuart Fairchild. I’m not sure but my HTA box was 10 times better than my last 3 hobby boxes. Is that a fair assumption that HTA are better, or is it pretty much luck of the draw?

kidbrando · 11-30-2022, 09:12 PM

My Results: Case $1599

Auto Highlights:
Acuna Insert Auto /100
Strider Purple
Deitmers Base
20+ other low value autos

12 Silver Packs: $1500+ Value - Got really lucky Here
2 Jrod SSPs
1 Tork SSP

BuyBacks: $140 value
4 Judge Base
1 Judge Refractor
1 Goldy Base

Wander Franco:
5 Wander Franco Base
3 1987 Wanders
4 New Classic Insert Wanders

I will redeem the buyback credit, probably keep the Jrods, but could sell and cover the case.

11-29-2022, 01:47 PM	#340
ClevelandIC Member Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Westlake, Ohio Posts: 5,498 Jakpi20 Jakpi20	I did some napkin math on this. 24 Packs of 4 Cards - Most of the time 1 of those cards is a non-base card. 24x3x12 = 864 base cards 864 is very very close to 4 full sets. So we'll say for S&G's you hopefully get 4 base of each per case. This is all assuming perfect odd rates but we know that is not how Topps has been doing business the last 18 months. 8 Refractors, 4 Prism and 1-2 color per box (Again on Average) would yield ~162 Parallels. 162/220 = 73.6% (By the way, this is not how odds work, but for quick math and to temper expectations) You could hopefully get one parallel of one of them, MAYBE 2. My educated guess is you would average right around $200 of buyback credit per case. BUT, I will take it one step further because this is how I justified buying a case during the $1,600 price BO was offering on BF. If you sell your Silver packs for ~$40 each and calculate $200 for Buyback Credit your floor case ripping price is $920 or $77 per Box. __________________ Always buying GU/Autos to resell to Blowout. Would love to add them to any deal we do so please let me know what you have!

11-28-2022, 07:45 PM	#326
kidbrando Member Join Date: May 2020 Location: MN Posts: 669 engywookmedia kidbrando	My Logic - Buy 2022 Topps Chrome case for $1599 Expect total of 24 Paul GoldSchmidt or Aaron Judge at $480 at a minimum. That's 1 each per box. Maybe I pull a refractor or color as a bonus. Case costs drops to ~$1100 Phenomenal Value - thoughts?

11-29-2022, 12:48 AM	#330
seanbros55 Member Join Date: Oct 2016 Location: From the 508 to the 707 Posts: 5,420	Guess I’ll never complete my base logofractor set, as I still need both cards. On the plus side, the 2 Goldschmidt cards I pulled from the base packs just became the 2 most valuable cards I pulled from my 5 logofractor boxes…

11-29-2022, 09:53 AM	#333
Chrominator Member Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Earth-616 Posts: 5,403 Chrominator	I wanna know what's up with the so-called "Sonicfractor" release.

11-29-2022, 10:07 AM	#335
towerymt Member Join Date: Mar 2019 Location: VA Posts: 8,941	Topps finding another way to sell garbage. Fantastic!

11-30-2022, 01:50 PM	#341
jrubbo23 Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Connecticut Posts: 1,153	That was fast. Mailed out cards Monday and got credit today.

11-30-2022, 05:33 PM	#348
eastbayak Member Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 16,733 eastbayak	Just sent in 6 cards (4 base + 2 logofractors) to one of the big 3. I would've sent them to BO but I already have a $25 gift code with the other retailer. I actually pulled 2 logofractors from my logofractor set but I can't pass up on $40 per. I should be able to re-buy those cards after the buyback deadline for a total of $15-$20.

11-30-2022, 07:10 PM	#349
eb12057 Member Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Upstate NY Posts: 1,495 eb12057 Eaglebridge12	I just opened an hta box. I hit one of each in my last 2 packs and a Judge Heart of the City. I’m assuming they don’t take the Heart of the City inserts? I did hit my first Red auto ever, of Stuart Fairchild. I’m not sure but my HTA box was 10 times better than my last 3 hobby boxes. Is that a fair assumption that HTA are better, or is it pretty much luck of the draw?

11-30-2022, 09:12 PM	#350
kidbrando Member Join Date: May 2020 Location: MN Posts: 669 engywookmedia kidbrando	My Results: Case $1599 Auto Highlights: Acuna Insert Auto /100 Strider Purple Deitmers Base 20+ other low value autos 12 Silver Packs: $1500+ Value - Got really lucky Here 2 Jrod SSPs 1 Tork SSP BuyBacks: $140 value 4 Judge Base 1 Judge Refractor 1 Goldy Base Wander Franco: 5 Wander Franco Base 3 1987 Wanders 4 New Classic Insert Wanders I will redeem the buyback credit, probably keep the Jrods, but could sell and cover the case.