Star Co. Basketball is Hottt!

[Spfld Ponies]

Originally Posted by 90skid

On August 8th I posted the pop chart snapshot and there were 4 PSA 8's out there. Now, 11 days later another one was added, making 5 total. I'm no expert but I expect the PSA 8 pop to grow quite a bit. I look forward to revisit this a year from now.

Agreed, thanks for tracking that for us.

Also, I still find predicting the 101 price to be very difficult. I think the best response is, it will fluctuate quite a bit!

A PSA 9 pops, we are taking huge dollars for one at auction. I can image possibly 1 of the BGS 9.5 might cross to a PSA 10, then we might have a new record breaker. Each of these incidents could cause trickle down upswings for the lower grades. Instead, if many 5-7's show up in the pop report, 8's might go back up by proving to be more elusive... etc etc

[Hellcat]

Originally Posted by Spfld Ponies

Agreed, thanks for tracking that for us.

Also, I still find predicting the 101 price to be very difficult. I think the best response is, it will fluctuate quite a bit!

A PSA 9 pops, we are taking huge dollars for one at auction. I can image possibly 1 of the BGS 9.5 might cross to a PSA 10, then we might have a new record breaker. Each of these incidents could cause trickle down upswings for the lower grades. Instead, if many 5-7's show up in the pop report, 8's might go back up by proving to be more elusive... etc etc

No chance the 3-BGS 9.5 can cross to a PSA 10. Especially since they would leave them encased so no way PSA gives them the bump. Probstein has seen all 3 and he says they all have issues probably a 8/9. Can’t wait until a PSA 9 shows up it will hit 500k easy.

[aro13]

Originally Posted by 2dueces

I understand exactly how you feel. I had my 3 Jordan Star cards graded by CSA before Beckett was even in business. CSA was a Canadian grading company. I’m 100% sure that would grade, not trimmed or short but I would crack and submit before I sent them in. CSA graded them 9, 8, 8. I’ll try to post pictures later and see what members think. They do look amazing in the blue gasket though.

I think you are referring to KSA being from Canada. CSA was one of the early companies that got their slab and training from ASA and Alan Hager. I had a few CSA Star cards that crossed to BGS a long time ago.

Their reputation is higher than PRO grading but not close to any of the major companies.

[Uncbuddha]

Last I checked I think there were 3 Stockton’s that were 9s. Thought that was interesting. It looks like there was a single copy of almost every 84 card graded. Maybe someone was grading a set? I peaked at a few of them and saw some scattered 9s for some commons and minor stars. Anybody seen any PSA 10s for any minor stars or commons? With the centering, easy border chipping, and just general old age of the card stock there is a chance we might not see any 10s of any 84 Star card.

[GOATcards]

Given the top/bottom size variations on the 101, how do you know you're not getting a trimmed one if it's one of the shorties?

[hauntedcomputer]

Originally Posted by Uncbuddha

Last I checked I think there were 3 Stockton’s that were 9s. Thought that was interesting. It looks like there was a single copy of almost every 84 card graded. Maybe someone was grading a set? I peaked at a few of them and saw some scattered 9s for some commons and minor stars. Anybody seen any PSA 10s for any minor stars or commons? With the centering, easy border chipping, and just general old age of the card stock there is a chance we might not see any 10s of any 84 Star card.

No doubt there will be people both grading sets and building PSA sets for registry "member measurement" purposes. Also a lot of the superstar cards from the side sets. The pop will be low on all of these for quite a while, since BGS folks are reporting PSA's reluctance to cross at high grades. I wouldn't be surprised if there were higher PSA pops of lesser cards than BGS pops. Like Greg Kite and Alvin Robertson and Sidney Moncrief and that sort, guys who just don't have that many cards because the heart of their career was 82-85. I call these the "gap year" cards where there's just not a lot available if you want a certain player.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

What makes you believe (other than PSA set registry) that hardcore collectors will only go after PSA 8 for six figures when there are 250 BGS 8.5's that are currently selling for less than 35K? If that was the case, the PSA 8 price should not have dropped from 115K to 84K within two weeks.

For Brady, the general consensus Grail card is Champ Ticket and for Lebron, it's his exquisite RPA. The general consensus iconic card (desirable and most traded) for Lebron is his 2003 TC. For Jordan, the Star is not the consensus grail card. It's not even considered iconic by many. I used to own one and never considered it as iconic. I can purchase one today and even if I owned one, I would not consider it as iconic or grail card.

Why a floor of six-figures for a PSA 8 Star 101? Because I don't trust 1/4 of those 250 BGS 8.5's are even 8's. It's been a month and a half since PSA began grading them, and the pop has increased by, what, 4-6 cards total? (All by one guy, for the most part) If it were so easy to cross these cards, you'd have seen an immediate jump. After all, the service level you'd have to use for an 8 is a 3-day service level. The truth is, PSA is kicking back a bunch of overgraded BGS Star 101's and you better believe PSA is going to keep that population tight and have an authorization process for approving high grades on them. I also believe the price variance of $115k to $84k has more to do with the impossible task of pricing a card that has 900+ copies graded by BGS and 32 by PSA. Until we get more data on the crossovers, collectors and investors will value the card much differently because of the unknown. Like you pretty much said, you think there will be 250 or so PSA 8's, whereas I believe it will be closer to 50. So obviously I'd value it much higher than you.

As to the Brady/LeBron comparisons, IMO, there's no way to compare the 101 Jordan rookie or the Fleer 57 to Brady's Champ ticket or LeBron's Exquisite. They're both serial numbered /100 and /99. Jordan's rookie just doesn't have that limited availability. And I totally understand that because of Beckett's influence in the 80's and 90's, the Star 101 was cast aside - but times change. Beckett has shown to be incompetent and new narratives in the hobby are emerging. It'll take time, but I see no reason why the true rookie card of the most famous athlete in the history of the world can't break through a weak historical narrative propagated by an almost defunct company.

At the end of the day, it's total speculation to predict where the PSA 8 (and above) prices end up, but I'll say this - The LeBron TC refractor has approx. 2,000 graded copies between BGS and PSA (twice the amount of graded Star 101's). Of those, over 200 are PSA 10's or BGS 10's, with the BGS 10's going for $60k and the PSA 10's going for $50k. And that's for a guy with over 100+ different rookie cards to choose from (Jordan has 1), and of which the TC refractor isn't the most sought-after of them. Plus, he's not Jordan. So, $115k for a PSA 8 Star 101? Makes sense to me.

[GOATcards]

two elephants in the room with the 101:

(a) it's his rookie card
(b) its eye appeal isn't so iconic

both of these things

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

Given the top/bottom size variations on the 101, how do you know you're not getting a trimmed one if it's one of the shorties?

crickets?

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

Like you pretty much said, you think there will be 250 or so PSA 8's, whereas I believe it will be closer to 50. So obviously I'd value it much higher than you.

My point was why would a hardcore Jordan collector pay six figures for a PSA 8 (other than PSA set registry) when there is a cheaper alternative, i.e; a BGS 8.5 (pop of 251) for less than 35K. I did not mean that most of those BGS 8.5's will cross over to PSA 8. My guess is 25-30% of the total BGS 8.5's would cross over to PSA 8 but not many owners will attempt to do the crossover because of the high grading fee ($3000) and the risk involved.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

My point was why would a hardcore Jordan collector pay six figures for a PSA 8 (other than PSA set registry) when there is a cheaper alternative, i.e; a BGS 8.5 (pop of 251) for less than 35K. I did not mean that most of those BGS 8.5's will cross over to PSA 8. My guess is 25-30% of the total BGS 8.5's would cross over to PSA 8 but not many owners will attempt to do the crossover because of the high grading fee ($3000) and the risk involved.

Mostly because discernable collectors view a lot of those BGS 8.5's as PSA 7/7.5's and are bidding accordingly. Makes sense to me.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

Mostly because discernable collectors view a lot of those BGS 8.5's as PSA 7/7.5's and are bidding accordingly. Makes sense to me.

Most of the people who are buying those BGS 7 to 8.5's and PSA 6 to 7's are likely the hardcore collectors who want a Star for their PC and don't care about the grade unlike the SCI guy who paid high six figures for a PSA 8 trying to set a benchmark. He is an influencer who was calling a bottom in sports cards market last year and is not a hardcore collector in my opinion. The sales of PSA 8 and above grades will likely be manipulated or inflated because of the low pop like many other low pop cards.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CRXYP9dn...dium=copy_link

EDIT: The good thing is there are 900 BGS 7 to 8.5's available for a Jordan collector who wants to add one to their PC at a low cost.

[ReggieBush22]

I don't think there is any doubt that because PSA is grading the MJ again, it gives it huge legitimacy. And given the scarcity, it's going to be a good card to keep long term in terms of $$. But scarcity doesn't = iconic.

I don't know if the Star will ever surpass the Fleer in the "iconic" department. The Star is more of a grail card for the high end collector, while almost every collector just WANTS the Fleer for their PC.

[ReggieBush22]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Most of the people who are buying those BGS 7 to 8.5's and PSA 6 to 7's are likely the hardcore collectors who want a Star for their PC and don't care about the grade unlike the SCI guy who paid high six figures for a PSA 8 trying to set a benchmark. He is an influencer who was calling a bottom in sports cards market last year and is not a hardcore collector in my opinion. The sales of PSA 8 and above grades will likely be manipulated or inflated because of the low pop like many other low pop cards.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CRXYP9dn...dium=copy_link

EDIT: The good thing is there are 900 BGS 7 to 8.5's available for a Jordan collector who wants to add one to their PC at a low cost.

There's no doubt the SCI guy has influence but for you to judge him and say he's only doing it for the $$ is unfair too. He collected cards as a child just like the rest of us in the 1980s.

What irks me is WHY so many people are so WORRIED about these guys. Buy what you want to buy. If you think a card is being pumped, guess what, you don't have to buy it. LOL.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by ReggieBush22

There's no doubt the SCI guy has influence but for you to judge him and say he's only doing it for the $$ is unfair too. He collected cards as a child just like the rest of us in the 1980s.

What irks me is WHY so many people are so WORRIED about these guys. Buy what you want to buy. If you think a card is being pumped, guess what, you don't have to buy it. LOL.

I don't know what to say when someone says the market has hit the bottom in July 2021 to his followers and the prices have been down 70-80% on many cards since then. Not sure how many followed his advice and lost money.

[2010GBPackers]

A Star 101 PSA 7 just did $32k on Goldin last night after a very similar eye appeal PSA 7 did $28k on PWCC four days ago.

[2000man]

Heard a cautionary tale recently people may like to know. Collector-investor had a Jordan 101 still sealed in the bag. This is same guy who sold the PSA 8 101 to the sports card investor in AC.

He opened the bulls bag just to submit the 101 to PSA. He really thought he had a shot at getting a 9. After submission , PSA goes QUIET for a couple weeks. This would get anybody’s concern up!

Finally they called him and said they graded it an 8, but then DAMAGED it while encapsulating and now it’s only a 5”

They said they’re only willing to give him $24,999 because He “only” paid $1,000 to get it graded (and that fee is for cards with a $24,999 max declared value)

He chose the $1,000 again because He though it was just insuring against the card getting lost in the mail. The thought of PSA damaging thr card never even crossed his mind.

So after telling me this, the skeptic now comes out a bit in me. How can you trust PSA? They undoubtedly were aware he sold the first 101 PSA 8 for $100 K and didn’t want him to do it again at the $1,000 submission level!

Then the supposed damage during The encapsulate process. Is that true ? or a bitter grading company …perhaps they did a card swap altogether? Maybe I’m just paranoid but I’d be create hell over that. Regardless it happened.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by 2000man

Heard a cautionary tale recently people may like to know. Collector-investor had a Jordan 101 still sealed in the bag. This is same guy who sold the PSA 8 101 to the sports card investor in AC.

He opened the bulls bag just to submit the 101 to PSA. He really thought he had a shot at getting a 9. After submission , PSA goes QUIET for a couple weeks. This would get anybody’s concern up!

Finally they called him and said they graded it an 8, but then DAMAGED it while encapsulating and now it’s only a 5”

They said they’re only willing to give him $24,999 because He “only” paid $1,000 to get it graded (and that fee is for cards with a $24,999 max declared value)

He chose the $1,000 again because He though it was just insuring against the card getting lost in the mail. The thought of PSA damaging thr card never even crossed his mind.

So after telling me this, the skeptic now comes out a bit in me. How can you trust PSA? They undoubtedly were aware he sold the first 101 PSA 8 for $100 K and didn’t want him to do it again at the $1,000 submission level!

Then the supposed damage during The encapsulate process. Is that true ? or a bitter grading company …perhaps they did a card swap altogether? Maybe I’m just paranoid but I’d be create hell over that. Regardless it happened.

So he tried to save $2000 in grading fee and lost $60K-70K in the process?

From PSA website (FAQ's)

It is important that you spend the time, utilize the available resources, and take the necessary steps to accurately estimate the Declared Value. The Declared Value you provide establishes:

the maximum item value in the event of a claim connected with that item while at PSA,
the maximum item value for shipping insurance purposes, and
the appropriate Service Level and Service Level price.

https://www.psacard.com/resources/faq#104

Disclosure: I am not a PSA or BGS fanboi.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by 2000man

He chose the $1,000 again because He though it was just insuring against the card getting lost in the mail. The thought of PSA damaging thr card never even crossed his mind.

LOL. Sure. What did he chose for return shipping insurance then? He must have been quite confused why they were asking for it twice.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

crickets?

so that's 3 elephants in the room then, the fact that it's MJ's rookie card, the fact that it has disappointing eye appeal (close-up image of MJ's smudged-up mouth area; the cropping), and the fact that its cut size varies so on the face it's trimmer-bait. Yay 101

[Beavers98]

Originally Posted by 2000man

Heard a cautionary tale recently people may like to know. Collector-investor had a Jordan 101 still sealed in the bag. This is same guy who sold the PSA 8 101 to the sports card investor in AC.

He opened the bulls bag just to submit the 101 to PSA. He really thought he had a shot at getting a 9. After submission , PSA goes QUIET for a couple weeks. This would get anybody’s concern up!

Finally they called him and said they graded it an 8, but then DAMAGED it while encapsulating and now it’s only a 5”

They said they’re only willing to give him $24,999 because He “only” paid $1,000 to get it graded (and that fee is for cards with a $24,999 max declared value)

He chose the $1,000 again because He though it was just insuring against the card getting lost in the mail. The thought of PSA damaging thr card never even crossed his mind.

So after telling me this, the skeptic now comes out a bit in me. How can you trust PSA? They undoubtedly were aware he sold the first 101 PSA 8 for $100 K and didn’t want him to do it again at the $1,000 submission level!

Then the supposed damage during The encapsulate process. Is that true ? or a bitter grading company …perhaps they did a card swap altogether? Maybe I’m just paranoid but I’d be create hell over that. Regardless it happened.

WOW, that is horrible. I knew at least one fanboi would jump in here quick. I know I must be in the minority with all the blind hobby PSA love, but 3k was supposed to be spent just to grade this card,?? 1k is high imo, but regardless let's not deflect too much here. If PSA truly damaged this card that's what the focus should be on.

[mindcycle]

Originally Posted by ReggieBush22

There's no doubt the SCI guy has influence but for you to judge him and say he's only doing it for the $$ is unfair too. He collected cards as a child just like the rest of us in the 1980s.

What irks me is WHY so many people are so WORRIED about these guys. Buy what you want to buy. If you think a card is being pumped, guess what, you don't have to buy it. LOL.

He’s 100% doing it for the money. I mean the guy literally calls himself the sports card “investor”…

I for one am not worried about the more seasoned collectors. Most see through his lack of experience and general poor advice. The ones I am worried about are collectors who watch his videos and then buy into stuff like base, high pop cards, or flavor of the month card pumps. Sure, it raises values and makes money for a few people, but inevitably prices out actual collectors and then most of the time leads to a crash of those cards once the bag can no longer be passed as easily. Lots of guys who didn’t get in and out quickly are now holding huge losses.

Make no mistake, the advice he gave during the pandemic was in no shape or form good for the hobby. It did nothing but perpetuate pump and dump style “collecting”. It didn’t grow the hobby organically where people joined for the love of sports and collecting players or teams they enjoy watching. It showed potential entrants that it’s fine if you can’t pronounce a players name correctly as long as you can look at graphs and throw money at stuff based arbitrary reasoning from a talking head. Because look at all this money to be made!

[2000man]

Originally Posted by Beavers98

WOW, that is horrible. I knew at least one fanboi would jump in here quick. I know I must be in the minority with all the blind hobby PSA love, but 3k was supposed to be spent just to grade this card,?? 1k is high imo, but regardless let's not deflect too much here. If PSA truly damaged this card that's what the focus should be on.

That’s the part I’m focused on. The customer is not savvy to the insights to grading and submission in my opinion. He didn’t understand what most people on this board do. You don’t play games with submission levels.

However I would think for PSA ..Should have just sent it back. The damage creates the professional questions or concerns here.

[Hellcat]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

so that's 3 elephants in the room then, the fact that it's MJ's rookie card, the fact that it has disappointing eye appeal (close-up image of MJ's smudged-up mouth area; the cropping), and the fact that its cut size varies so on the face it's trimmer-bait. Yay 101

Bro it could be a stick figure of MJ on the card as long as it’s his one and only rookie which the 101 is it still will have a lot of value. Get over it and save up or liquidate your collection to acquire while you still can.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by Hellcat

Bro it could be a stick figure of MJ on the card as long as it’s his one and only rookie which the 101 is it still will have a lot of value. Get over it and save up or liquidate your collection to acquire while you still can.

i got caught up in the pump in '92, Bro. Market surge all documented in Beckett, etc.

I can't remember what your response was to the comparison to the Mantle RC vs. the more iconic and sought-after card from a year later. Have you seen a pump succeed for the 51B Mantle, BRO???