The Official NBA Regular Season Thread—-21/22 Edition

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

(He whispers ... not everyone)

Jokic ain’t happening man…

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by burke23

In his defense he shoots what - 13-14 3’s a game? That will bring down your average.

Are you saying he gets tired because of how many he shoots, and that’s why he’s having the worst shooting performance of his career?

[burke23]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Are you saying he gets tired because of how many he shoots, and that’s why he’s having the worst shooting performance of his career?

No - 4 pt percentage is always lower than 2 or percentage. Simple math would bear out the higher percentage of your shots that are 3 pointers, the lower your overall percentage is. Didn’t check his true shooting percentage to see if that has dropped significantly but that would be a better indication to me of struggles/decline.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Right. Because of Curry.

Next highest in BPM is Dray who is @ +3.7 (No, GP3 and his baby minutes don’t count).

Funny enough, Jordan Poole has a -0.9 BPM. My guess is because he’s just a meh player.

Ipso Facto: Curry is carrying GSW, and is able to have a “down year” (he’s not actually having a down year) because the rest of the league has fallen off due to a myriad of reasons.

BPM is a terrible metric to rely on. It is based on 5 players. Green is #1 in DWS and DRating. Poole is 13/18. If you don't think they are a major part of Curry's BPM and GSW success, you really don't know much about basketball.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Jokic ain’t happening man…

IDK this to be true or false. I do know though, that looking at the end of season metrics is going to be a real test in critical thinking for everyone.

Giannis and KD out w/ COVID for a bit (plus always nagging injuries, + rest). Curry not putting up the #'s this year ... There's going to be gaps the league has never seen before and I am going to revel in all the pretzel twisting, non-Jokic arguments.

[bberns]

I haven't been watching the games, so I will happily admit if I'm way off base, but could Curry's soft numbers be simply do to fewer foul calls at the margins?

You don't need to move many "foul and three foul shots" to "no foul and missed FGA" for there to be an impact on the stats.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by rats60

BPM is a terrible metric to rely on. It is based on 5 players. Green is #1 in DWS and DRating. Poole is 13/18. If you don't think they are a major part of Curry's BPM and GSW success, you really don't know much about basketball.

It was in response to NC posting the BPM from the other night…

Context, an amazing tool.

Is Curry carrying the Warriors or are the Warriors carrying Curry? There’s one obvious <correct> answer.

Hint: It’s not “Dray and Poole are a major part of Curry/GSW success”.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

IDK this to be true or false. I do know though, that looking at the end of season metrics is going to be a real test in critical thinking for everyone.

Giannis and KD out w/ COVID for a bit (plus always nagging injuries, + rest). Curry not putting up the #'s this year ... There's going to be gaps the league has never seen before and I am going to revel in all the pretzel twisting, non-Jokic arguments.

Jokic could peel off the next 5 MVP awards while Denver toils in mediocrity. Nobody will care.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by burke23

No - 4 pt percentage is always lower than 2 or percentage. Simple math would bear out the higher percentage of your shots that are 3 pointers, the lower your overall percentage is. Didn’t check his true shooting percentage to see if that has dropped significantly but that would be a better indication to me of struggles/decline.

Ah, I see what you’re saying now. My bad. His effective shooting percentage is fourth worst if you throw out 2019.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Jokic could peel off the next 5 MVP awards while Denver toils in mediocrity. Nobody will care.

I can live with that. (And some people will care, because the narrative would change w/ each one).

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

I can live with that. (And some people will care, because the narrative would change w/ each one).

True.

If he can run the table for the Covid 20s with MVP awards I’ll anoint him actually.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by rats60

BPM is a terrible metric to rely on. It is based on 5 players. Green is #1 in DWS and DRating. Poole is 13/18. If you don't think they are a major part of Curry's BPM and GSW success, you really don't know much about basketball.

Draymond green 100% sets the tone for the defense. Like I said in a previous post Curry has the advantage of having Draymond behind him so he doesn’t have to play great individual defense.

Outside of Draymond tho, not a single metric ranks any of the other warriors as above average (yes I’m ignoring Payton’s numbers). Poole is a net negative, Wiggins is basically flat, Looney is net negative.

When you have a team full of net negatives but a league best record someone has to be carrying those guys

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Draymond green 100% sets the tone for the defense. Like I said in a previous post Curry has the advantage of having Draymond behind him so he doesn’t have to play great individual defense.

Outside of Draymond tho, not a single metric ranks any of the other warriors as above average (yes I’m ignoring Payton’s numbers). Poole is a net negative, Wiggins is basically flat, Looney is net negative.

When you have a team full of net negatives but a league best record someone has to be carrying those guys

But the Warriors are a plus team with Curry on the bench. And two of their top 5 rotations by +/- have neither Curry nor Green on it. So how can you honestly say that nobody in that group is anything better than average?

[pingbling23]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

But the Warriors are a plus team with Curry on the bench. And two of their top 5 rotations by +/- have neither Curry nor Green on it. So how can you honestly say that nobody in that group is anything better than average?

Exactly. It’s one of the times when you can use advanced stats to make any argument you want but common sense and reality is more compelling. I’ve watched a few warriors games this season. Their role players are pretty good, hit shots when it’s their time, have great ball movement, and play great team defense. I don’t know why it has to be curry carrying the team or vice versa? Curry is offensively one of the best in the league and his team are all playing effectively in an effective system. This isnt prime Jordan, Lebron, kawhi, etc scoring 30-35 a game while locking down the other teams best player so it’s a stretch to say curry is carrying the warriors but I definitely wouldn’t say the warriors are carrying him. It’s just working right now but unless klay comes back like nothing ever happened, I just don’t see this team doing much in the playoffs.

[hairyangryfella]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

It is Steph carrying them. Same as he carried them to the play-in round last year.

This season has just been wonky in terms of game scratches, of which GSW hasn’t really dealt with.

Check this OUT for tonight’s Orlando v Brooklyn squabble:

Orlando Out:

Bamba, Mo Out Health and Safety Protocols
Brazdeikis, Ignas Out Health and Safety Protocols
Carter-Williams, Michael Out Injury/Illness - Left Ankle; Injury recovery
Fultz, Markelle Out Injury/Illness - Left Knee; Injury recovery
Hampton, R.J. Out Health and Safety Protocols
Isaac, Jonathan Out Injury/Illness - Left Knee; Injury recovery
Moore, E'Twaun Out Injury/Illness - Left Knee; Sprain
Ross, Terrence Out Health and Safety Protocols
Suggs, Jalen Out Injury/Illness - Right Thumb; Fracture
Wagner, Moritz Out Health and Safety Protocols
Carter Jr., Wendell Out

That’s 11 guys.

Here’s Brooklyn:

LaMarcus Aldridge. Out Health and Safety Protocols
Bembry, DeAndre' Out Health and Safety Protocols
Brown, Bruce Out Health and Safety Protocols
Carter, Jevon Out Health and Safety Protocols
Durant, Kevin Out Injury/Illness - Right Ankle; Soreness
Harden, James Out Health and Safety Protocols
Harris, Joe Out Injury/Illness - Left Ankle; Surgery
Irving, Kyrie Out Ineligible To Play
Johnson, James Out Health and Safety Protocols
Mills, Patty Out Rest
Millsap, Paul Out Health and Safety Protocols


That’s 11 guys.

This isn’t even counting the GTDs. 22 guys missing this game. That’s the season the league is having that GSW hasn’t dealt with.

I just find this so ludicrous. Surely they should be fined or something for not playing a healthy player when they're so short?
Games are losing all interest to be watched.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

But the Warriors are a plus team with Curry on the bench. And two of their top 5 rotations by +/- have neither Curry nor Green on it. So how can you honestly say that nobody in that group is anything better than average?

Again, players can be average and still play well within a system.

The warriors are +317 with Curry on the court and +12 with him off. So are we really gonna pretend they’re THAT good without him?

Even I can do the math they’re 305 points better with him on. I challenge anyone to find another player with a +300 point impact

+12 is the definition of average. So yes the players around him are all average (besides Draymond)

[tjforce]

In case anyone missed it, there was a game today already.... Houston beat Detroit!

My god Detroit is bad. And if you look up the phrase "Empty Stats" you'll see a picture of Cade Cunningham... Which should get Panini excited for this year's releases (whenever they happen). Can't wait for investors to start to fade LaMelo the way they've faded Luka once something shiny and new comes out.

[jcardstore]

Oh and here’s one for you Poole truthers

The warriors are 25 points better with him off the floor. So much for being a star

[dunkindutchmen]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Draymond green 100% sets the tone for the defense. Like I said in a previous post Curry has the advantage of having Draymond behind him so he doesn’t have to play great individual defense.

Outside of Draymond tho, not a single metric ranks any of the other warriors as above average (yes I’m ignoring Payton’s numbers). Poole is a net negative, Wiggins is basically flat, Looney is net negative.

When you have a team full of net negatives but a league best record someone has to be carrying those guys

Holy god. Draymond Green is an elite individual or man defender. He's not elite as a help side or team defender. Now, I know you don't know what that means, but he's not Tim Duncan. He's not a guy you funnel your man too.

The Warriors still very much need Curry to play competent and good defense. They are good because they have both strong offensive and defensive systems, and are lead by an offensive player who makes everyone better simply by being on the court.

[pingbling23]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Again, players can be average and still play well within a system.

The warriors are +317 with Curry on the court and +12 with him off. So are we really gonna pretend they’re THAT good without him?

Even I can do the math they’re 305 points better with him on. I challenge anyone to find another player with a +300 point impact

+12 is the definition of average. So yes the players around him are all average (besides Draymond)

I don’t believe anyone is arguing the warriors are a better team without curry.

[ballhawkdawk]

Originally Posted by bulljh

You have this false narrative about Poole and you are the only one here pushing it. It’s pretty funny actually. Poole has been the scorer when Steph is sitting. I’m not sure when 18 points a game became “average at best”. I guess that makes Sexton slightly below “average at best” since Poole has better numbers than Sexton. Such a ridiculous stance.

On 44% / 34% shooting. Lol… Jordan Poole for All NBA eh? Him and Wiggins are the real reason the Warriors are any good, not the guy with two MVPs and currently leading the race for a third. The Warriors were dead last two seasons ago by 4.5 games. Tell me what the difference is.

[k13]

Originally Posted by tjforce

In case anyone missed it, there was a game today already.... Houston beat Detroit!

My god Detroit is bad. And if you look up the phrase "Empty Stats" you'll see a picture of Cade Cunningham... Which should get Panini excited for this year's releases (whenever they happen). Can't wait for investors to start to fade LaMelo the way they've faded Luka once something shiny and new comes out.

It has been like that for 30 years.
Next...

[Zedlaw]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Again, players can be average and still play well within a system.

The warriors are +317 with Curry on the court and +12 with him off. So are we really gonna pretend they’re THAT good without him?

Even I can do the math they’re 305 points better with him on. I challenge anyone to find another player with a +300 point impact

+12 is the definition of average. So yes the players around him are all average (besides Draymond)

I’ll fight for Curry, winning is my most important stat. But Jokic’s on/off differential is crazy. 28pts!

[ballhawkdawk]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

This is a theory. Is this what you believe, or are you simply floating a possibility as to why Curry is struggling?

Best record in the NBA (without Klay) and odds on favorite to win MVP. The struggle is real. Trade him while there’s any value left.

[ballhawkdawk]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Not to belabor the point, but the above quote was from 12.1. Those advanced metrics touted (Raptor and BPM) have fallen off a cliff. What was in the 11-12 range is now in the 7-8 range. If he continues to play this way, (whether GSW wins or loses), these will continue to fall.

Give it time. The numbers will work themselves out because early season returns are wonky on metrics. The more games played, the more Curry plays in the 40% - 45% range, the lower these will go.

On the contrary, the hot/cold streaks he has will average out and his FG and 3 %s will end up higher by end of season. He was en fuego to finish the season last year. That was like six months ago.