May Goldin Auction

[UCLAboy777]

Originally Posted by hairyangryfella

I told you what Ken told me. I posted it in quotation marks... If the guy running the organisation is telling you what they can do with your item but that they don't utilize reserves, that kind of supercedes the things stated on their site, no?

He does it. So does PWCC

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by hairyangryfella

I told you what Ken told me. I posted it in quotation marks... If the guy running the organisation is telling you what they can do with your item but that they don't utilize reserves, that kind of supercedes the things stated on their site, no?

Well I can't debate what you think Ken told you. However, it's very clearly stated on the website and very clearly in use. So it's kind of obvious, no?

[hairyangryfella]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

Well I can't debate what you think Ken told you. However, it's very clearly stated on the website and very clearly in use. So it's kind of obvious, no?

What I 'think'???
Do you want me to forward you the friggin email????

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by hairyangryfella

What I 'think'???
Do you want me to forward you the friggin email????

Nope. I'm good.
I've expended enough energy explaining something printed in black and white.
Good luck with your sale

[Orangejello727]

Originally Posted by hauntedcomputer

People with a gambling addiction do not care how much they win or lose, they are going to gamble until they die. Even being broke doesn't seem to stop them, and sometimes even death doesn't stop them. Cards are slightly less of a gamble--there is an element of speculative chance, but also a hundred-year history as a somewhat predictable asset class.

That said, a lot of rich guys aren't that smart because they discount timing and luck. Ask them how to make money and they will spout how THEY made money, usually vastly overestimating their own abilities and intelligence while downplaying good fortune, and they are usually backed pretty heavily by other people's money and labor (or even society's).

So just because a guy (and they're all guys) pays millions for a card doesn't mean he's ahead of the crowd. It just means he's temporarily the greatest fool. Sometimes it works out, and if it does, he will brag about how smart he was. If it doesn't, he writes off the capital gains loss on his taxes and lets the rest of us subsidize their foolishness.

The card hobby is a negative sum game. Everyone is losing money in aggregate. Therefore, not everyone is a genius. But the story of tens of thousands of collectors losing smaller amounts of money never makes the news. Then it's a "hobby."

But if I had crazy money, why not blow it on cardboard pictures of men in shorts?

It would be a valid point if we were talking about addicts. We aren't. There is no direct link that just because you gamble or have a high threshold for risk makes you an addict or addiction to anything to the point of losing everything. I dont know where you came up with that. My comment was based on people who claim that money is no object yet the swings in card prices less than 1million is enough to scare them. Makes no sense.

[regularp]

Originally Posted by hauntedcomputer

People with a gambling addiction do not care how much they win or lose, they are going to gamble until they die. Even being broke doesn't seem to stop them, and sometimes even death doesn't stop them. Cards are slightly less of a gamble--there is an element of speculative chance, but also a hundred-year history as a somewhat predictable asset class.

That said, a lot of rich guys aren't that smart because they discount timing and luck. Ask them how to make money and they will spout how THEY made money, usually vastly overestimating their own abilities and intelligence while downplaying good fortune, and they are usually backed pretty heavily by other people's money and labor (or even society's).

So just because a guy (and they're all guys) pays millions for a card doesn't mean he's ahead of the crowd. It just means he's temporarily the greatest fool. Sometimes it works out, and if it does, he will brag about how smart he was. If it doesn't, he writes off the capital gains loss on his taxes and lets the rest of us subsidize their foolishness.

The card hobby is a negative sum game. Everyone is losing money in aggregate. Therefore, not everyone is a genius. But the story of tens of thousands of collectors losing smaller amounts of money never makes the news. Then it's a "hobby."

But if I had crazy money, why not blow it on cardboard pictures of men in shorts?

This is most definitely not true.

[Kobefan]

Who are those people who can regularly gamble away a few million dollars every week and do they invest in basketball cards? I haven't heard of any mega-rich billionaires who partakes in this hobby/investment, at most a few guys with a couple hundred million dollars net worth, and I can only recall 2 people. I am genuinely curious who these mega rich folks are.

[sebreg]

Originally Posted by hauntedcomputer

People with a gambling addiction do not care how much they win or lose, they are going to gamble until they die. Even being broke doesn't seem to stop them, and sometimes even death doesn't stop them. Cards are slightly less of a gamble--there is an element of speculative chance, but also a hundred-year history as a somewhat predictable asset class.

That said, a lot of rich guys aren't that smart because they discount timing and luck. Ask them how to make money and they will spout how THEY made money, usually vastly overestimating their own abilities and intelligence while downplaying good fortune, and they are usually backed pretty heavily by other people's money and labor (or even society's).

So just because a guy (and they're all guys) pays millions for a card doesn't mean he's ahead of the crowd. It just means he's temporarily the greatest fool. Sometimes it works out, and if it does, he will brag about how smart he was. If it doesn't, he writes off the capital gains loss on his taxes and lets the rest of us subsidize their foolishness.

The card hobby is a negative sum game. Everyone is losing money in aggregate. Therefore, not everyone is a genius. But the story of tens of thousands of collectors losing smaller amounts of money never makes the news. Then it's a "hobby."

But if I had crazy money, why not blow it on cardboard pictures of men in shorts?

How is it negative sum game? You mean if influx of new card supply outpaces market cap growth meaning dollars thinned out and hollowing out card values? Maybe I'm just not understanding, never heard hobby called negative sum game.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by sebreg

How is it negative sum game? You mean if influx of new card supply outpaces market cap growth meaning dollars thinned out and hollowing out card values? Maybe I'm just not understanding, never heard hobby called negative sum game.

Since this has been all the hobby rage, we will use the PSA 10 #56 Fleer.

Pop 317.

234 recorded sales since 2004.

Of those 234, we’ve record 34 total sales above the $100K threshold they total $12,890,960.

Should the card fall to $35K, the total market cap would be $11,095,000. That being below the threshold of the $13M recorded sales we have, not even accounting for the other sales below $100K but above our magical $35K number, the losses would be greater than the total value of the combined assets. Negative sum game.

[Orangejello727]

Originally Posted by Kobefan

Who are those people who can regularly gamble away a few million dollars every week and do they invest in basketball cards? I haven't heard of any mega-rich billionaires who partakes in this hobby/investment, at most a few guys with a couple hundred million dollars net worth, and I can only recall 2 people. I am genuinely curious who these mega rich folks are.

Ive come to the conclusion they aren't mega rich. They are literally new minted money from the surge in this industry. Guys who accumulated thousands of dollars worth of cards in the past decade..held and now trade for astronomical prices. That the majority of their wealth and where its coming from. Hence why the swings matter because their entire porfolios in cards. Outside of that, theyre just regular people with regular income. I wish there was a way to see a hobby census with household income and median net worths just to get a picture of the status of those in the hobby.

[sebreg]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Since this has been all the hobby rage, we will use the PSA 10 #56 Fleer.

Pop 317.

234 recorded sales since 2004.

Of those 234, we’ve record 34 total sales above the $100K threshold they total $12,890,960.

Should the card fall to $35K, the total market cap would be $11,095,000. That being below the threshold of the $13M recorded sales we have, not even accounting for the other sales below $100K but above our magical $35K number, the losses would be greater than the total value of the combined assets. Negative sum game.

Gotcha, that is helpful thank you.

[gomiamigo]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Should the card fall to $35K, the total market cap would be $11,095,000. That being below the threshold of the $13M recorded sales we have, not even accounting for the other sales below $100K but above our magical $35K number, the losses would be greater than the total value of the combined assets. Negative sum game.

But this isn't the aggregate so your example is inapt to focus on any one or ten cards.

I think you are probably right but I've never seen the evidence for it.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

But this isn't the aggregate so your example is inapt to focus on any one or ten cards.

I think you are probably right but I've never seen the evidence for it.

You’re right and honestly my example was incorrect anyway.

Whenever the total amount of losses exceed the total amount of gains, it’s a negative sum game.

The 2 people who paid $700K+ are upside down currently $1M. It would take 5 sellers who bought at $20K to sell their copies to make up the combined losses of those two.

If the card keeps dropping, and we both suspect it will, eventually the gains from the “but I purchased it before the spike so I’m good crowd” will be less than the losses from the “I fomo’d in and bought crowd”. That’s when the Jordan Fleer RC becomes a negative sum game. I suspect it will happen, as is the nature of the beast for the hobby, in aggregate, like haunted said.

It doesn’t mean tons of people can’t make a living off the hobby either, just that the losses incurred are greater than the gains achieved.

[ninjacookies]

PSA 9's down to 25-28k.


In addition to those buying at near peaks tempted to jump out a skyscraper engulfed in flames, there's also added pressure for those that bought at much lower levels that may not want to see their profit window close (with the hopes of rebuying for less later).

I think we'll see continued sell pressure for 9's and lower, where there is never a lack of abundance in the secondary market.

While '86 was a far less economically driven era in the hobby, it's nothing like prewar cards like the '52 mantle. There will be more mj's added to the psa database every year.

[regularp]

Seeing a lot of "PASS" listings closed including that LeBron Ultimate PSA 10 that finished at $300K. I'm curious what the reserve was on that if $300K wasn't enough for the seller.

[shu4040]

Originally Posted by regularp

Seeing a lot of "PASS" listings closed including that LeBron Ultimate PSA 10 that finished at $300K. I'm curious what the reserve was on that if $300K wasn't enough for the seller.

I don’t think all “pass” are closed below the reserves. I had an item sold that was listed at pass and didn’t have a reserve. Wait for tomorrow to see the final numbers plus BP


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[CaliCollector87]

Originally Posted by regularp

Seeing a lot of "PASS" listings closed including that LeBron Ultimate PSA 10 that finished at $300K. I'm curious what the reserve was on that if $300K wasn't enough for the seller.

I was thinking the same thing.. many passes. we'll see tommorow. Also pwcc's auction ended today as well many kobe autos there as well. one i was bidding on at golding ended at 4.9k at pwcc in a better grade so goldin's was an easy pass at 4.5k. Lot 1168

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by regularp

Seeing a lot of "PASS" listings closed including that LeBron Ultimate PSA 10 that finished at $300K. I'm curious what the reserve was on that if $300K wasn't enough for the seller.

The ones I consigned all show as pass but I did not have reserve on any of them. I am pretty sure the Ultimate sold since it did not have a reserve notification on the item page.

[alphaomegas]

If you got a 9 or 10 mj you need to sell now to lock that profit in. Don’t be a bag holder the card isn’t rare it’s just cardboard. Cash can make your life better not cardboard.

[regularp]

Originally Posted by shu4040

I don’t think all “pass” are closed below the reserves. I had an item sold that was listed at pass and didn’t have a reserve. Wait for tomorrow to see the final numbers plus BP


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Originally Posted by pcptrade

The ones I consigned all show as pass but I did not have reserve on any of them. I am pretty sure the Ultimate sold since it did not have a reserve notification on the item page.

Gotcha. I won one card and it showed as "PASS" too. Good to know I should be getting it.

[KhalDrogo]

Goldin needs to fix their site already. Years overdue. Imagine watching these auctions end with a PASS, and thinking you lost, you go try to win other items.

[notfast]

Came here to see what PASS meant. Can’t be all reserves as its literally everything.

[Gem10collection]

Did this auction do $100mil?

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by siebertb

Maybe just wishful thinking because I have one but I thought 13/14 LeBron Prizm Gold BGS 9.5 would hit 100k. Such a rare card I doubt being BGS rather than PSA matters too much but I could be wrong

I thought it might for for more too... but still... highest ever sale, if I'm correct.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by bmf

I agree. Well sold and well bought, congrats to consignor and new owner. But nowhere near breaking the 5.2MM record set by the LeBron /23 gold RPA as some people were predicting in the other thread. Of course, those people are nowhere to be found now.

But why would it be.... I get that it's a significant card... but it's nowhere near as iconic and not quite as important as LeBron Exquisite, Trout Super, Mantle 52 Topps, Wagner T215, Etc.