Deshaun Watson Prices

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

Are you talking about value out of the box? Because there's no way Brady and Rodgers are even close to that high. Rookies are where the value is. I opened so many cases of R&S in 2017 and never pulled a Brady or Rodgers out of the commons. I've seen them sell for a quarter but not much more than that. Not saying Watson will be worth anything either in 2021 but the rookies will all be at the top of the list.

I'm referring to value of key cards.

So comparing rookie cards with rookie cards, key parallels vs the same parallel, etc.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by weeds73

You sure are down on Watson...I focus mostly on Mahomes and certainly can't argue against Brady/Rodgers/Wilson as strong value plays. Obviously, Josh Allen needs to be on this list as well (which someone else already pointed out). I get the hype around Lawrence and can even get behind Herbert, though his prices have exploded and I would be worried about investing too heavily behind a Chargers QB that has to compete against Mahomes in the division year in and year out... However, I can't imagine focusing on Tua, Burrow, Fields, or Lamar instead of Watson with regard to value. While I haven't researched this extensively, I believe all of them trade at a premium to Watson (with Fields as the obvious exception). I just don't see the same level of upside with these names. Further, the comparisons to Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, and Matt Ryan are rough. There is a clear ceiling for those QBs talent-wise. Hell, Watson already has the same number of playoff games (3) and more playoff victories than Stafford. Cam Newton is only 31 years old, can't throw a football, and is likely to be looking for a job after this season.

Totally forgot about Allen...

Yea.. I agree with you on a lot of them, but I'm not talking about where I'd spend my money, I'm talking about where I expect the rest of the market to spend it.

There is a much better case for Miami and Tua to take a bigger leap next year than Houston, considering all the draft picks (they got from Houston) and any cap space they might have.

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Totally forgot about Allen...

Yea.. I agree with you on a lot of them, but I'm not talking about where I'd spend my money, I'm talking about where I expect the rest of the market to spend it.

There is a much better case for Miami and Tua to take a bigger leap next year than Houston, considering all the draft picks (they got from Houston) and any cap space they might have.

Except for the fact that Tua is terrible

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

Except for the fact that Tua is terrible

When has that ever stopped people from throwing money into young QBs? lol

[kyle1707]

Originally Posted by statman19

Josh Allen isn't in your top 12 for 2021 value?

Ya Allen would be in top 5 if he keeps winning for sure

Speaking of Allen. He is a perfect example of what Watson will be once team starts to win.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

Ya Allen would be in top 5 if he keeps winning for sure

Speaking of Allen. He is a perfect example of what Watson will be once team starts to win.

The problem is, I don't see Watson winning any time soon. I think we will be re-hashing this conversation for the next 3+ years.


Watson will continue to amass great numbers because the Texans will continue to play from behind in most of their games. Before you know it, he will be 30+ years old and still looking up the titans and colts in the division.


To those investing in him: good luck!!!!

[LeonfromNC]

So who’s a better investment?

Watson or Murray?

[Fratboy]

Originally Posted by LeonfromNC

So who’s a better investment?

Watson or Murray?

Watson is most certainly the better NFL QB

[Giancarlo27]

If he doesn't get a more competent front office and coaching staff, he is basically going to end up being a more talented Stafford. Here's hoping someone comes in and maximizes his abilities because the sky is the limit with him

[weeds73]

There is going to be a lot of pressure from ownership this offseason to improve the roster ASAP. I wouldn't be surprised if they look to make a big splash in free agency. Simply put, the defense was a travesty this year, and the lack of offensive talent is embarrassing. I would expect a complete overhaul of the roster, including the team moving on from JJ Watt. I would expect them to free up additional cap space by dropping Randall Cobb and David Johnson, perhaps even Whitney Mercilus and Zach Cunningham, They should try to renegotiate Brandin Cooks' contract as well to keep Will Fuller

Thought this was interesting: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...of-your-years/

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by weeds73

There is going to be a lot of pressure from ownership this offseason to improve the roster ASAP. I wouldn't be surprised if they look to make a big splash in free agency. Simply put, the defense was a travesty this year, and the lack of offensive talent is embarrassing. I would expect a complete overhaul of the roster, including the team moving on from JJ Watt. I would expect them to free up additional cap space by dropping Randall Cobb and David Johnson, perhaps even Whitney Mercilus and Zach Cunningham, They should try to renegotiate Brandin Cooks' contract as well to keep Will Fuller

Thought this was interesting: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...of-your-years/

“Good job, brother. I’m sorry. I’m sorry. We wasted one of your years. I’m sorry. We should have 11 wins,” Watt told Watson.

Watson led the NFL with 4,823 passing yards and 8.9 yards per attempt. He had career-highs in completion percentage, touchdowns and first downs while throwing a career-low interception total. He was outstanding this season. It’s a shame that the Texans put such a bad team around him.

[oplum29]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

“Good job, brother. I’m sorry. I’m sorry. We wasted one of your years. I’m sorry. We should have 11 wins,” Watt told Watson.

Watson led the NFL with 4,823 passing yards and 8.9 yards per attempt. He had career-highs in completion percentage, touchdowns and first downs while throwing a career-low interception total. He was outstanding this season. It’s a shame that the Texans put such a bad team around him.

i see this, and i just think to myself, i wonder what Watson would be doing with a coach and team like the 49ers...

then i remember we could have drafted him back in 2017...

[regularp]

Originally Posted by Giancarlo27

If he doesn't get a more competent front office and coaching staff, he is basically going to end up being a more talented Stafford. Here's hoping someone comes in and maximizes his abilities because the sky is the limit with him

Don't be disrespectul. Watson is clearly in another tier compared to Padford.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by statman19

Josh Allen isn't in your top 12 for 2021 value?

Originally Posted by kyle1707

Ya Allen would be in top 5 if he keeps winning for sure

Speaking of Allen. He is a perfect example of what Watson will be once team starts to win.

Yea.. totally forgot Allen.

Of the two, they are probably pretty comparable... one just has a much better team around him, as well as draft picks to improve from here.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

[/B]



The problem is, I don't see Watson winning any time soon. I think we will be re-hashing this conversation for the next 3+ years.


Watson will continue to amass great numbers because the Texans will continue to play from behind in most of their games. Before you know it, he will be 30+ years old and still looking up the titans and colts in the division.


To those investing in him: good luck!!!!

And very rarely do you see the investing window open back up once it's closed on a guy.

His stats and performance have kept it open longer than a lot of guys, but if eventually he gets labeled as a numbers guy that doesn't win, he could end up in the Ryan, Stafford pile.

Again, if you spend the offseason opportunistically picking up the right cards, you will make some money, barring an injury before the season start. But you'll also be passing on key cards of other QBs that have even more of a chance of drying up in the meantime.

[Fratboy]

Watson's story is one of the saddest in sports these days.

A cautionary tale of a NFL Franchise squandering some of the prime years, of it's greatest player.

[Singinbobbo]

Originally Posted by oplum29

i see this, and i just think to myself, i wonder what Watson would be doing with a coach and team like the 49ers...

then i remember we could have drafted him back in 2017...

It’s all good. We got Solomon Thomas...

I remember being so mad

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by tjforce

And very rarely do you see the investing window open back up once it's closed on a guy.

His stats and performance have kept it open longer than a lot of guys, but if eventually he gets labeled as a numbers guy that doesn't win, he could end up in the Ryan, Stafford pile.

Again, if you spend the offseason opportunistically picking up the right cards, you will make some money, barring an injury before the season start. But you'll also be passing on key cards of other QBs that have even more of a chance of drying up in the meantime.

There is no doubt he has talent.

But it all comes down to exposure in the playoffs and the collecting world. If he was on a high market team he would already be a beast. But the reality is he's not. He's on the Texans, who run second fiddle to the Cowboys in Texas.


It's going to take some magic to turn this team around in the next three years. Sorry, I just don't see it happening. Few draft picks, an aging defense, and a lot of free agent questions on offense.

[Zauron]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

[/B]



The problem is, I don't see Watson winning any time soon. I think we will be re-hashing this conversation for the next 3+ years.


Watson will continue to amass great numbers because the Texans will continue to play from behind in most of their games. Before you know it, he will be 30+ years old and still looking up the titans and colts in the division.


To those investing in him: good luck!!!!

Texans are likely at minimum two years away from being a contender, possibly even longer. And then, at that point, contract extension talks will pop up for Watson and Tunsil.

That defense is DREADFUL, it isn't stopping anyone and they have limited cap space, and awful draft capital.

Talks about cutting veterans, cutting them still has dead cap space if memory serves me right. Cobb I think can't be cut due to this, which is why I say it's going to be rough start.

I compared Watson to Rivers career. Absolute great QB with great stats, but did nothing monumental for awards or postseason success. Watson is better than Rivers, but without awards or postseason success, Watson isn't going to move up in value a ton.

I also do not think they get the top coach candidates in, so there is that too.

[pokerkeith]

Originally Posted by Fratboy

Watson's story is one of the saddest in sports these days.

A cautionary tale of a NFL Franchise squandering some of the prime years, of it's greatest player.

Things can change quick in the nfl. Nfl gems can be found in rounds 3 thru 7 and maybe they hit on a few undrafted rookie cbs. I still do not think anyone runs away in the division and both losses to colts and titans were razor close and go either way type games. Also they get the benefit of not playing a first place schedule so they wont see chiefs steelers and bills next year. Nfl is always different year to year. I do think 10-6 is possible in 2021 and no i am not a texans fan they just had some bad variance this year and some god awful gm decisions (I get trading hopkins for a draft pick but not a rb even though david johnson did ball out in december)

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by pokerkeith

Things can change quick in the nfl. Nfl gems can be found in rounds 3 thru 7 and maybe they hit on a few undrafted rookie cbs. I still do not think anyone runs away in the division and both losses to colts and titans were razor close and go either way type games. Also they get the benefit of not playing a first place schedule so they wont see chiefs steelers and bills next year. Nfl is always different year to year. I do think 10-6 is possible in 2021 and no i am not a texans fan they just had some bad variance this year and some god awful gm decisions (I get trading hopkins for a draft pick but not a rb even though david johnson did ball out in december)

Values on any QB under 30 are based on expectations rather than accomplishments. And yes, that even includes Mahomes. If he spends the rest of his career throwing for 4000 yards a year and never gets back to the Super Bowl, his prices will be way lower than they are now (I don't see that happening).

You look at the recent era guys who have high values based on accomplishments and the list is short:

-Brady
-Manning
-Rodgers (ish)
-Montana
-Favre
-Elway
-Marino

Then a few guys like Ben and Eli, but only so many of their key cards hold much value.


Even if the expectation is that Houston gets back to 10-6, so what? Is that going to make people plow huge amounts of money into Watson rather than Mahomes, Brady, or the next hot rookie? There's a long way to go before people start believing that Watson is going to have a top 10 or so QB career.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by pokerkeith

Things can change quick in the nfl. Nfl gems can be found in rounds 3 thru 7 and maybe they hit on a few undrafted rookie cbs. I still do not think anyone runs away in the division and both losses to colts and titans were razor close and go either way type games. Also they get the benefit of not playing a first place schedule so they wont see chiefs steelers and bills next year. Nfl is always different year to year. I do think 10-6 is possible in 2021 and no i am not a texans fan they just had some bad variance this year and some god awful gm decisions (I get trading hopkins for a draft pick but not a rb even though david johnson did ball out in december)

I talked about this a few pages ago. The Chiefs beat their division rivals by less than a touchdown in every game they played this year but one (Denver 43-16) My point? Interdivisional games are always tough.

The Titans and Colts are on the upswing. The Texans? Nope.

the 4 wins by the texans this year? The Jags twice, (the second game by 2 points) the Patriots, and the Lions. -----this is not a good resume.



Again, I like Watson, I would LOVE to see him on the Patriots, but I just don't see things changing for at least 3+ years.

[Mikeh6480]

Originally Posted by tjforce

And very rarely do you see the investing window open back up once it's closed on a guy.

His stats and performance have kept it open longer than a lot of guys, but if eventually he gets labeled as a numbers guy that doesn't win, he could end up in the Ryan, Stafford pile.

Again, if you spend the offseason opportunistically picking up the right cards, you will make some money, barring an injury before the season start. But you'll also be passing on key cards of other QBs that have even more of a chance of drying up in the meantime.

In todays Flipper/Collecting its what have you done for me lately.

[Spartyon]

Originally Posted by Mikeh6480

In todays Flipper/Collecting its what have you done for me lately.

Wrong, totally wrong.

Are tiger woods cards going up because he did something lately? Or because there is a documentary coming out this month?

Are Patrick Mahomes cards going up because he finished off the season strong? Or because he might be about to win a super bowl.

In today’s world it’s about potential. What are you going to do for me next?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Onepocketj]

Nick Caserio hired as GM from the Patriots.

Doesn't seem like anyone is too pleased with this.