Deshaun Watson Prices

[rman112]

Originally Posted by Singinbobbo

Lot of bad luck led to many of those losses. Weird things happen in football. They should definitely win more of those close games next year. It also helps, that they’ll be playing the worst team in the divisions next year

Bad teams find ways to lose. Over a 16 game season, things (if you want to call it luck, but I disagree) tend to work themselves out. They were also a -80 in point differential.

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by marlinsmaniac20

If I was Watson I'd demand a trade

My luck the Jaguars would pick him up.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

Remarkably better talent wise? Not going to happen next year. My point is that they weren’t getting blown out like most 4-12 teams do. 4-12 teams aren’t that different than 8-8 teams.

And that's my problem...

if they go 8-8... so what?

I like Watson. I think he's good. I have some cards of his that would do very well if he blows up...

I just don't see how this team gets better. As a matter of fact, a lot of their key guys will be getting a year further from their prime.

Maybe I'll be wrong... it's just hard for me to see how they get on the same level as KC, Buffalo, Baltimore, or Pitts anytime soon.

Man.. imagine if Watson has that Pittsburgh supporting cast!

[Singinbobbo]

Originally Posted by rman112

Bad teams find ways to lose. Over a 16 game season, things (if you want to call it luck, but I disagree) tend to work themselves out. They were also a -80 in point differential.

Maybe it’s just wishful thinking on my part because I like the guy so much. But we shall see what moves Houston makes. That defense is dreadful. And with a softer schedule next year, hopefully they at least get headed back on the right path.

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by tjforce

And that's my problem...

if they go 8-8... so what?

I like Watson. I think he's good. I have some cards of his that would do very well if he blows up...

I just don't see how this team gets better. As a matter of fact, a lot of their key guys will be getting a year further from their prime.

Maybe I'll be wrong... it's just hard for me to see how they get on the same level as KC, Buffalo, Baltimore, or Pitts anytime soon.

Man.. imagine if Watson has that Pittsburgh supporting cast!

I thought that with half the games I watched this weekend. I watch QB's with all day to throw and think, man, if Watson had that line...

[Mikeh6480]

Originally Posted by marlinsmaniac20

If I was Watson I'd demand a trade

He wouldnt have signed that extension during the season...

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

I thought that with half the games I watched this weekend. I watch QB's with all day to throw and think, man, if Watson had that line...

But that's the nature of the NFL...

If Barry Sanders had Dallas' offensive line he would have rushed for 2400 yards in a season.

If Dan Marino played for the 49ers he'd be a multi time SB champ.

And heres the thing to think about...

Two of Houston's wins were vs Jacksonville.

Jacksonville has the 1st pick, the Rams first round pick, the 1st pick in Rd 2, and the Vikings' 2nd round pick.

They also have the most salary cap space in the NFL.

They will be better next season.

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by tjforce

But that's the nature of the NFL...

If Barry Sanders had Dallas' offensive line he would have rushed for 2400 yards in a season.

If Dan Marino played for the 49ers he'd be a multi time SB champ.

And heres the thing to think about...

Two of Houston's wins were vs Jacksonville.

Jacksonville has the 1st pick, the Rams first round pick, the 1st pick in Rd 2, and the Vikings' 2nd round pick.

They also have the most salary cap space in the NFL.

They will be better next season.

Lol. You don't have to read so much into everything. I lived in Jacksonville when they were giving away two free beers if you would pay $10 for a ticket to the games. And they still couldn't get anyone to go.

[rman112]

Originally Posted by Singinbobbo

Maybe it’s just wishful thinking on my part because I like the guy so much. But we shall see what moves Houston makes. That defense is dreadful. And with a softer schedule next year, hopefully they at least get headed back on the right path.

It's not Watson's fault. The hope is they get a new coach and GM pairing that can right the ship. The problem is, which was mentioned earlier.. how? There's little high-end talent, they're down picks, and money is going to be tight. Outside of Watson and Tunsil, who else can you really build around, on either side of the ball?

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

Lol. You don't have to read so much into everything. I lived in Jacksonville when they were giving away two free beers if you would pay $10 for a ticket to the games. And they still couldn't get anyone to go.

Haha... maybe they'll only have to give away 1 beer now.

But yea... i was agreeing with you that so much depends on the team around you in the NFL, but it is what it is. It's the team you have to play with.

[Spartyon]

Given the current salary/draft situation, I think the biggest thing the Texans can do to make Watson prices jump in the offseason is to hire Bienemy as the head coach. If they do that and even marginally improve the roster he’ll be higher in August.


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[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Spartyon

Given the current salary/draft situation, I think the biggest thing the Texans can do to make Watson prices jump in the offseason is to hire Bienemy as the head coach. If they do that and even marginally improve the roster he’ll be higher in August.


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But this is what I keep coming back to...

Would I rather spend my offseason picking up Watson, or key Mahomes or Brady when the right opportunity presents itself?

It makes me think of LeBron's career... with all the guys that have come and gone, you were better off 99% of the time buying LeBron rather than whoever the latest 'hot' or 'underpriced' guy was.

[wharfrat7624]

https://twitter.com/rapsheet/status/...510153728?s=21


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[matt roberson]

Originally Posted by tjforce

But this is what I keep coming back to...

Would I rather spend my offseason picking up Watson, or key Mahomes or Brady when the right opportunity presents itself?

It makes me think of LeBron's career... with all the guys that have come and gone, you were better off 99% of the time buying LeBron rather than whoever the latest 'hot' or 'underpriced' guy was.

Not if you bought at the right time and flipped the flavor of the week for good profits.... Lebron gains weren’t that great until recently, same with Brady (short of top brands and rare RCs).

All I’m saying is you could buy and sell the new guys/stuff to make a profit and put the profits towards a long term investment card (LBJ,MJ,tiger,Brady) and still have money left to rinse and repeat the cycle.

I don’t like to buy PC Cards until profits are realized so I’m not busting my ass at work to buy cards that I stash away and only pull out of the safe/SDB “once in a while”

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by matt roberson

Not if you bought at the right time and flipped the flavor of the week for good profits.... Lebron gains weren’t that great until recently, same with Brady (short of top brands and rare RCs).

All I’m saying is you could buy and sell the new guys/stuff to make a profit and put the profits towards a long term investment card (LBJ,MJ,tiger,Brady) and still have money left to rinse and repeat the cycle.

I don’t like to buy PC Cards until profits are realized so I’m not busting my ass at work to buy cards that I stash away and only pull out of the safe/SDB “once in a while”

I hear ya...

I guess it depends on your focus...

I'm talking about spending a good chunk of money ($5k+) and holding for the big, long term score. Even if the options are A. Watson and flip come August for to big up big Brady's/Mahomes, or B. significant Brady/Mahomes
before they dry up, I'd rather lock down the important stuff right away.

But you're right, it'd probably be easy to buy Watson, sit on it for a 7 months, and get an easy 25% (if you can do a decent job at avoiding fees).

But the opportunity cost of passing up key cards of the other guys while they are available might not be worth it.

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I hear ya...

I guess it depends on your focus...

I'm talking about spending a good chunk of money ($5k+) and holding for the big, long term score. Even if the options are A. Watson and flip come August for to big up big Brady's/Mahomes, or B. significant Brady/Mahomes
before they dry up, I'd rather lock down the important stuff right away.

But you're right, it'd probably be easy to buy Watson, sit on it for a 7 months, and get an easy 25% (if you can do a decent job at avoiding fees).

But the opportunity cost of passing up key cards of the other guys while they are available might not be worth it.

I’m doing exactly the opposite because of exactly what you mentioned: my focus. Currently, short term gains far outweigh long term. Brady/Mahomes/Lebron/Trout define the market. There is no chance that if I bought a Lebron rookie, it would 10x in 6 months. The list is endless with other players that could happen with. Mainly basketball but when I see a golden opportunity that is Watson in football, I’m going to bet those odds. There is 0% chance he doesn’t see an uptick in price before next season. And even then, I’m holding because I believe he is in that special category.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

I’m doing exactly the opposite because of exactly what you mentioned: my focus. Currently, short term gains far outweigh long term. Brady/Mahomes/Lebron/Trout define the market. There is no chance that if I bought a Lebron rookie, it would 10x in 6 months. The list is endless with other players that could happen with. Mainly basketball but when I see a golden opportunity that is Watson in football, I’m going to bet those odds. There is 0% chance he doesn’t see an uptick in price before next season. And even then, I’m holding because I believe he is in that special category.

If you only knew what I bought my Brady's and Mahomes at back in April/May, and what I bought a few of my LeBron's at back in 2017-2018, as well as in the fall of 2019.

[heatdawg]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

I’m doing exactly the opposite because of exactly what you mentioned: my focus. Currently, short term gains far outweigh long term. Brady/Mahomes/Lebron/Trout define the market. There is no chance that if I bought a Lebron rookie, it would 10x in 6 months. The list is endless with other players that could happen with. Mainly basketball but when I see a golden opportunity that is Watson in football, I’m going to bet those odds. There is 0% chance he doesn’t see an uptick in price before next season. And even then, I’m holding because I believe he is in that special category.

The crazy part is, if this was basketball, Watson's prices would be huge! In basketball, you can be on a bum team and not even sniff the playoffs and still hold strong hobby value because that one player is so fun to watch and has so much talent. Of course sooner or later you have to win something to hold value. But in the end, Watson has the most upside available for his current price point. He is definitely the most electric player on a losing team.

I really hope they do some good hirings this off-season that is concentrated on Watson. Any coach would have to be thrilled to coach Watson. Should be a fun off-season.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by heatdawg

The crazy part is, if this was basketball, Watson's prices would be huge! In basketball, you can be on a bum team and not even sniff the playoffs and still hold strong hobby value because that one player is so fun to watch and has so much talent. Of course sooner or later you have to win something to hold value. But in the end, Watson has the most upside available for his current price point. He is definitely the most electric player on a losing team.

I really hope they do some good hirings this off-season that is concentrated on Watson. Any coach would have to be thrilled to coach Watson. Should be a fun off-season.

Yea... basketball players hold value probably 30 or so players deep.

If I had to rank football players in terms of value for the 2021 season:

1. Brady
2. Mahomes
3. Rodgers
4. Lawrence
5. Herbert
6. Burrow
7. Tua
8. Fields
9. Lamar
10. Wilson
11. Watson
12. Kyler

I don't think Watson cracks top 10. (and this is assuming Brees retires).

In football it's like you either have to be an established Champion or unproven prospect to really draw heat in the hobby. Guys like Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, and Cam Newton get no love.

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Yea... basketball players hold value probably 30 or so players deep.

If I had to rank football players in terms of value for the 2021 season:

1. Brady
2. Mahomes
3. Rodgers
4. Lawrence
5. Herbert
6. Burrow
7. Tua
8. Fields
9. Lamar
10. Wilson
11. Watson
12. Kyler

I don't think Watson cracks top 10. (and this is assuming Brees retires).

In football it's like you either have to be an established Champion or unproven prospect to really draw heat in the hobby. Guys like Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, and Cam Newton get no love.

Are you talking about value out of the box? Because there's no way Brady and Rodgers are even close to that high. Rookies are where the value is. I opened so many cases of R&S in 2017 and never pulled a Brady or Rodgers out of the commons. I've seen them sell for a quarter but not much more than that. Not saying Watson will be worth anything either in 2021 but the rookies will all be at the top of the list.

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by tjforce

If you only knew what I bought my Brady's and Mahomes at back in April/May, and what I bought a few of my LeBron's at back in 2017-2018, as well as in the fall of 2019.

That’s exactly my point. Very doubtful we see another run up of the market leaders again. Small upticks, sure. But not the 100x or whatever it was over that period.

[statman19]

Josh Allen isn't in your top 12 for 2021 value?

[weeds73]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Yea... basketball players hold value probably 30 or so players deep.

If I had to rank football players in terms of value for the 2021 season:

1. Brady
2. Mahomes
3. Rodgers
4. Lawrence
5. Herbert
6. Burrow
7. Tua
8. Fields
9. Lamar
10. Wilson
11. Watson
12. Kyler

I don't think Watson cracks top 10. (and this is assuming Brees retires).

In football it's like you either have to be an established Champion or unproven prospect to really draw heat in the hobby. Guys like Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, and Cam Newton get no love.

You sure are down on Watson...I focus mostly on Mahomes and certainly can't argue against Brady/Rodgers/Wilson as strong value plays. Obviously, Josh Allen needs to be on this list as well (which someone else already pointed out). I get the hype around Lawrence and can even get behind Herbert, though his prices have exploded and I would be worried about investing too heavily behind a Chargers QB that has to compete against Mahomes in the division year in and year out... However, I can't imagine focusing on Tua, Burrow, Fields, or Lamar instead of Watson with regard to value. While I haven't researched this extensively, I believe all of them trade at a premium to Watson (with Fields as the obvious exception). I just don't see the same level of upside with these names. Further, the comparisons to Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, and Matt Ryan are rough. There is a clear ceiling for those QBs talent-wise. Hell, Watson already has the same number of playoff games (3) and more playoff victories than Stafford. Cam Newton is only 31 years old, can't throw a football, and is likely to be looking for a job after this season.

[Onepocketj]

This is the cover of the sports page in Houston today -
"After most Texans loss ever, team needs coach, GM as capable as it's QB. How much more can Deshaun Watson be asked to do?"

https://imgur.com/o3pXX5i

[rman112]

A clear challenge to the organization:

"Man, it just starts with the energy and just the foundation of this program," Watson said, via NFL Network's James Palmer. "There's no real foundation in view. Everyone sees it. Everyone knows that. Got to have a guy that can come in and stand strong, stand 10 toes down and, (say), 'Hey, this is the way it's going to go, and this is the way we're going to win.'

"That's what we need. It's kind of just up in the air right now. That's what I'm looking forward to, some disciplined responsibility and some good, fun energy that cares about winning championships and winning games but at the same time is coming in to work each and every day regardless."