Deshaun Watson Prices

[Mikeh6480]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

That was on the idiot coach, not him.

1000000% agree. They should have fired FBB before last season

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

How?

The problem w/ Watson is three fold.

(1) He plays for a loser. As the poster above noted, Houston is likely to be a bad football team for a little while at least; it's not going to get better anytime soon when you look around at the quality teams in the AFC right now and the young talent everywhere but Houston. Houston will amass yards and points because Watson is good and they will continue to lose because they are a bad football team.

(2) He's never won anything or led in anything up to this point in his career. Yes his numbers are overall very good but he has no accolades. The only stat he has ever led in was sacks taken in 2018 (62!).

(3) There are too many better options to invest in at the QB position these days. There are no less than 5 active QB's who have value either far exceeding Watson or potential better than his. Wilson / Brady / Rodgers have the value established while Mahomes (could be in category A but too young IMHO) and Allen have better long-term potential. Tack on the other guys like Jackson, Murray, Herbert and the soon to be incoming explosion of Andrew Lu .... I mean Trevor Lawrence and why are people driving up the prices on a 5-11 QB in 2021?

Where is the hype going to come from for Watson. Value today is more about that than actual quality, scarcity or performance but when you play in Houston on a bad team, are not going to be in the discussion for MVP or in the post-season; how is the value going to rise other than slowly and unnoticeably?

It's a hard buy IMHO. You'll get quality performance and a lot of "Why isn't Watson value higher?" kind of rhetoric.

2018 11-5 won AFC South
2019 10-6 lost to Chiefs in Playoffs

NFL records
Most passing touchdowns in a single game by a rookie quarterback: 5 (tied with Ray Buivid, Matthew Stafford, Jameis Winston, and Daniel Jones)[125]
Most passing touchdowns in a calendar month by a rookie quarterback: 16[67]
Most passing touchdowns by a rookie quarterback in one half: 4 (tied with Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston) (Week 5, 2017)[126]
First player in NFL history to pass for 400+ yards, throw 4+ TD passes, and rush for 50+ yards in a single game. (Week 8, 2017)[127]
First player in NFL history with multiple 5 passing touchdown games within his first 2 seasons: 2
First player in NFL history to have 4,000+ passing yards, 25+ passing touchdowns, 500+ rushing yards, and 5 rushing touchdowns in a single season
Fastest player in NFL history to have 6,500+ passing yards and 500+ rushing yards (26 games)
Fastest player in NFL history to have 50 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdowns (27 games)
First quarterback with back-to-back games with at least 375 passing yards and 35 rushing yards
Most passing touchdowns by a rookie in a 7-game span in NFL history: 19[127]
Most passing touchdowns by a rookie in a 5-game span in NFL history: 18[128]
Longest streak of games with 3 or more passing touchdowns by a rookie in NFL history: 4[129]
Most games with at least 375 passing yards and 40 rushing yards in NFL history: 3 (tied with Steve Young)
Most passing touchdowns for a quarterback through his first six career games: 15
First rookie with two games of 300+ passing yards and 40+ rushing yards in a season
First rookie to produce 5+ touchdowns in consecutive games
Most completions with a perfect passer rating: 28
Most attempts with a perfect passer rating: 33 (tied with Jared Goff)

Three Pro Bowls

I'd say he's doing ok on that dumpster fire of a team. If they get rid of Watt and free up some money, who knows.

[rman112]

Originally Posted by Mikeh6480

New Coach/ GM will bring fresh air. Watt will leave/traded. Sucks they traded Dhop but it is what it is. Im not to upset w Tunsil deal honestly, if Texans didnt get a LT Watsons career would be over from injuries. My only knock on Watson is he has to throw the ball away and not take dumb sacks

New coach and GM is fine. But where are the pieces they need to compete going to come from?

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

2018 11-5 won AFC South
2019 10-6 lost to Chiefs in Playoffs

NFL records
Most passing touchdowns in a single game by a rookie quarterback: 5 (tied with Ray Buivid, Matthew Stafford, Jameis Winston, and Daniel Jones)[125]
Most passing touchdowns in a calendar month by a rookie quarterback: 16[67]
Most passing touchdowns by a rookie quarterback in one half: 4 (tied with Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston) (Week 5, 2017)[126]
First player in NFL history to pass for 400+ yards, throw 4+ TD passes, and rush for 50+ yards in a single game. (Week 8, 2017)[127]
First player in NFL history with multiple 5 passing touchdown games within his first 2 seasons: 2
First player in NFL history to have 4,000+ passing yards, 25+ passing touchdowns, 500+ rushing yards, and 5 rushing touchdowns in a single season
Fastest player in NFL history to have 6,500+ passing yards and 500+ rushing yards (26 games)
Fastest player in NFL history to have 50 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdowns (27 games)
First quarterback with back-to-back games with at least 375 passing yards and 35 rushing yards
Most passing touchdowns by a rookie in a 7-game span in NFL history: 19[127]
Most passing touchdowns by a rookie in a 5-game span in NFL history: 18[128]
Longest streak of games with 3 or more passing touchdowns by a rookie in NFL history: 4[129]
Most games with at least 375 passing yards and 40 rushing yards in NFL history: 3 (tied with Steve Young)
Most passing touchdowns for a quarterback through his first six career games: 15
First rookie with two games of 300+ passing yards and 40+ rushing yards in a season
First rookie to produce 5+ touchdowns in consecutive games
Most completions with a perfect passer rating: 28
Most attempts with a perfect passer rating: 33 (tied with Jared Goff)

Three Pro Bowls

I'd say he's doing ok on that dumpster fire of a team. If they get rid of Watt and free up some money, who knows.

These aren't things!

Surprised you didn't tell me how many road TD's he's thrown to running backs that traveled more than 5 yards on Sunday's in the rain on turf in the 3rd quarter as a rookie QB.

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

These aren't things!

Surprised you didn't tell me how many road TD's he's thrown to running backs that traveled more than 5 yards on Sunday's in the rain on turf in the 3rd quarter as a rookie QB.

These are things he's accomplished with a dismal coach and line. I can't even fathom the stats he would put up if he had time like Rodgers and Allen had their last games.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

How?

The problem w/ Watson is three fold.

(1) He plays for a loser. As the poster above noted, Houston is likely to be a bad football team for a little while at least; it's not going to get better anytime soon when you look around at the quality teams in the AFC right now and the young talent everywhere but Houston. Houston will amass yards and points because Watson is good and they will continue to lose because they are a bad football team.

(2) He's never won anything or led in anything up to this point in his career. Yes his numbers are overall very good but he has no accolades. The only stat he has ever led in was sacks taken in 2018 (62!).

(3) There are too many better options to invest in at the QB position these days. There are no less than 5 active QB's who have value either far exceeding Watson or potential better than his. Wilson / Brady / Rodgers have the value established while Mahomes (could be in category A but too young IMHO) and Allen have better long-term potential. Tack on the other guys like Jackson, Murray, Herbert and the soon to be incoming explosion of Andrew Lu .... I mean Trevor Lawrence and why are people driving up the prices on a 5-11 QB in 2021?

Where is the hype going to come from for Watson. Value today is more about that than actual quality, scarcity or performance but when you play in Houston on a bad team, are not going to be in the discussion for MVP or in the post-season; how is the value going to rise other than slowly and unnoticeably?

It's a hard buy IMHO. You'll get quality performance and a lot of "Why isn't Watson value higher?" kind of rhetoric.

This is the biggest thing I keep coming back to.

Every time I dig into eBay to see what Watson I can get for a couple grand, I just end up looking and Brady and Mahomes and feeling much better about it.

I know for long term value I don't want the 4th or 5th best QB of a generation.... it's top 2 or bust for me.


In the right circumstance I might feel better about his chances.

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by tjforce

This is the biggest thing I keep coming back to.

Every time I dig into eBay to see what Watson I can get for a couple grand, I just end up looking and Brady and Mahomes and feeling much better about it.

I know for long term value I don't want the 4th or 5th best QB of a generation.... it's top 2 or bust for me.


In the right circumstance I might feel better about his chances.

I guess it depends on how you look at it.
Another way would be the last Mahomes Elite Series raw rookie went for $270.
Watson is $2 - $5. If you think Mahomes is better, no problem. If you think he is 100x better, well...

Sooner or later some of the prices will even out one way or another. I'm not saying spend a fortune on him. But man, these prices are just silly for a 3 time Pro Bowler that's only been playing pretty much three years.

[Singinbobbo]

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if the Texans made the playoffs next year just because of Watson. There were so many close games they could’ve won this year. When you have a quarterback with the capabilities of Deshaun, you can’t completely count him out. It’s just a matter of time til he does get a good enough team around him to make a run. That’s why he’s definitely a buy and hold. He’s going to win at some point. If you have patience, it’s definitely gonna pay off

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

I guess it depends on how you look at it.
Another way would be the last Mahomes Elite Series raw rookie went for $270.
Watson is $2 - $5. If you think Mahomes is better, no problem. If you think he is 100x better, well...

Sooner or later some of the prices will even out one way or another. I'm not saying spend a fortune on him. But man, these prices are just silly for a 3 time Pro Bowler that's only been playing pretty much three years.

Yea... I'm not spending my money on anyone's raw Elite Series.

I actually haven't picked up a Mahomes since July...but when I eye a Brady or Mahomes Prizm Gold in the $1-2K range vs a Watson in the $200 range, I'm totally okay with paying 5-10x for Brady or Mahomes.

[Spartyon]

My question is- how much worse of a team can they trot out there next year?

I grabbed a few things to stash as I expect they can be in competition for that division any year with Watson at the helm. Wouldn’t be surprised if this the worst W/L record of his career




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Spartyon

My question is- how much worse of a team can they trot out there next year?

I grabbed a few things to stash as I expect they can be in competition for that division any year with Watson at the helm. Wouldn’t be surprised if this the worst W/L record of his career




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Man, it that works out, these are some great cards.

[tconte]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

These are things he's accomplished with a dismal coach and line. I can't even fathom the stats he would put up if he had time like Rodgers and Allen had their last games.

Junk stats for a guy who will never have card love. When it's all over his
cards will never have big time value.

[Moneychrome20]

Originally Posted by tconte

Junk stats for a guy who will never have card love. When it's all over his
cards will never have big time value.

[jpcz]

As an update to my optic rainbow post a page or two ago, I was able to get this to replace the raw min grade non-gem card I got back from PSA. Holo is all that's left although I have two at PSA so waiting to see what happens before I go looking.

2017 Optic Watson Lime by

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by tconte

Junk stats for a guy who will never have card love. When it's all over his
cards will never have big time value.

Kind of a harsh way to put it, but I look at the competition in that division and I see problems with the Texans.


The Colts: Young team who needs a QB in a year or two, but solid top to bottom
The Titans: Very solid, well coached. Some defensive issues that need to be addressed
The Texans: lots of holes on both sides of the ball, looking up at the Titans/Colts
The Jaguars: dumpster fire.



This is what scares me about investing in Watson. I just don't see that team leapfrogging the Titans/Colts for the next 3+ years. Even if his numbers look great, he will be overshadowed by other QB's on winning teams.

It's hard for me to see the hobby love.

[NoleinJax]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

Kind of a harsh way to put it, but I look at the competition in that division and I see problems with the Texans.


The Colts: Young team who needs a QB in a year or two, but solid top to bottom
The Titans: Very solid, well coached. Some defensive issues that need to be addressed
The Texans: lots of holes on both sides of the ball, looking up at the Titans/Colts
The Jaguars: dumpster fire.



This is what scares me about investing in Watson. I just don't see that team leapfrogging the Titans/Colts for the next 3+ years. Even if his numbers look great, he will be overshadowed by other QB's on winning teams.

It's hard for me to see the hobby love.

Trevor Lawrence will change that.

[dbpsooner]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

Kind of a harsh way to put it, but I look at the competition in that division and I see problems with the Texans.


The Colts: Young team who needs a QB in a year or two, but solid top to bottom
The Titans: Very solid, well coached. Some defensive issues that need to be addressed
The Texans: lots of holes on both sides of the ball, looking up at the Titans/Colts
The Jaguars: dumpster fire.



This is what scares me about investing in Watson. I just don't see that team leapfrogging the Titans/Colts for the next 3+ years. Even if his numbers look great, he will be overshadowed by other QB's on winning teams.

It's hard for me to see the hobby love.

I have been slowly picking up Watson where I can. I look at things slightly different than you, but definitely get where you are coming from.

Colts - I just don't see this team sustaining success with the glaring hole at QB. I don't see how they can fill that spot with what is available and obviously Rivers isn't the long term answer given his age.

Titans - I always worry about teams that spend big money on a running back. To me it is one of the least important positions on the field and when teams spend on that position they are rarely good enough to be considered a serious contender. Tanihill is not good enough to carry the team when Henry moves on or ages.

Texans - Will always have the best QB in the division which to me means they will always be competitive. It is hard to imagine them having a team quite as bad as what they rolled out there this year and I would expect them to have a decent roster around Watson at some point over the next 10 years.

Jags - the Jags with Lawrence may be the biggest threat in a couple years, more so than Indy and Ten. I am not as high on Trevor as others, but it wouldn't shock me if he came in and lived up to the hype. He is a big wild card that could change things the most imo.

All in all, I always believe good QB play can elevate an entire team. My biggest concern is who they bring in as the next coach, as even the best QBs can get smothered in a bad system/organization. I think he is worth a flyer for the time being but if it looks like they will end up going the way of the coaching carousel it may be time to cut bait. 2017 wax is probably the best way to get exposure to Watson, but most people are likely already priced out of that.

[SupermanBrandon]

Normally we're talking about how bad the PLAYER is. But in this case, I think we can all agree he is a really good player...he was just dealt an uncontrollable, crappy situation.

[Vinny1984]

Watson is the easiest buy in football. Short and long term.

If you are just going by the eye test, he has the talent to compete for Super Bowls and MVPs for his entire career. Whether he gets surrounded by the talent and coaching staff to do that is anyone’s guess. No single player can do it himself. Long term is a wild card but I’ll take my chances that someone out there will be able to take an uber-talented QB and build a legacy out of him.

Now with short term. It seems like most completely forget what kind of knee-jerk market we are in. Drew Lock saw a 2x increase just from drafting a WR. Drew Lock. Think about that. The Texans are about six feet below the bottom right now. It’s literally impossible for them to go lower. ANYTHING they do in the off-season will lift his prices.

It only takes one game to watch to see he has special talent and has already proven he is an NFL star. I’ll bet on that over the Herberts, Burrows, Tua’s, and 2021 QB draft class of the league.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

Watson is the easiest buy in football. Short and long term.

If you are just going by the eye test, he has the talent to compete for Super Bowls and MVPs for his entire career. Whether he gets surrounded by the talent and coaching staff to do that is anyone’s guess. No single player can do it himself. Long term is a wild card but I’ll take my chances that someone out there will be able to take an uber-talented QB and build a legacy out of him.

Now with short term. It seems like most completely forget what kind of knee-jerk market we are in. Drew Lock saw a 2x increase just from drafting a WR. Drew Lock. Think about that. The Texans are about six feet below the bottom right now. It’s literally impossible for them to go lower. ANYTHING they do in the off-season will lift his prices.

It only takes one game to watch to see he has special talent and has already proven he is an NFL star. I’ll bet on that over the Herberts, Burrows, Tua’s, and 2021 QB draft class of the league.

Never underestimate how low they could go.


I'm watching from a distance now on Watson, but right now there too many variables beyond his control as to how the direction of his career could go.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

Normally we're talking about how bad the PLAYER is. But in this case, I think we can all agree he is a really good player...he was just dealt an uncontrollable, crappy situation.

I would LOVE to see him on the Patriots!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

Never underestimate how low they could go.

I supposed we could see a Smoot Boat: Houston. Not sure who the ring leader would be though.

[f2tornado]

Good player but could end up falling into the Derek Carr or Philip Rivers tier of hobby favoritism if his team cannot right the ship.

[heatdawg]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Good player but could end up falling into the Derek Carr or Philip Rivers tier of hobby favoritism if his team cannot right the ship.

I doubt he could ever fall to those levels. Watson is an exciting player to watch even if he never won a Superbowl. The excitement itself of watching him play is why I started to collect him. Had no intention of an investment, he started out as just a guy I love to watch play the game.

Thing is, he has so many years ahead of him, we are not even close to scratching the surface of what he can accomplish if the right pieces fall around him. Let's hope that he gets the correct coach this offseason which would be big for his career.

We all know football is a true team sport, you cannot do it alone or even with a few guys. You need a team, that is the reason I love football so much over basketball.

[Paderborn1907]

This isn’t Baseball or Hockey, where you can still get hobby love when you‘re on a constantly bad team.

In Football pretty much only the QB‘s get the hobby love, because they‘ve the biggest impact on their teams, but the impact need to be visible so the QB has to be the biggest contributor to bring the team into continuous contention. A stats only guy will only last for the rookie and maybe 1-2 more seasons.

I agree that Watson still has potential, since the Texans GM/Coach situation was beyond speechless and had an obvious impact.

There‘s still a chance, but at one point you need to turn it around ...