Clayton Kershaw - Will a dominant postseason do much to his hobby value?

[Nostalgia]

Originally Posted by signal_fifty

Best pitcher in the last 50 years?!? You are out of your mind.

Why would someone be out of their mind to say that? He's definitely in the discussion.

[blitzaceod]

I might be a little biased, but I hope it doesn't go up TOO much.
That being said, it's hard to see a huge price jump for a pitcher, even if it is Kershaw. Scherzer didn't take a massive jump after last year and most would argue they are similar in rank. On top of that, it's not like his autos are dirt cheap right now. Many still hold in the 75-150 range which is already pretty good prices.
If they win a WS and his prices do jump, I may have to move a few things

[djdevon]

Give it time Doyyer fans. Curse-Shaw will self-destruct. He's like Chuck Knoblauch fielding a grounder at the hot corner. All he has to do is throw it to first, but...AAAHAHARRRURHGHGH

[dfenno]

Originally Posted by Nostalgia

The chrome UH is a beautiful card. Out of my price range now

I'm going to compare the pop report of Kershaw Topps UH rookie to some other generational pitchers.

Randy Johnson Upper Deck: 28132 graded; 4367 PSA 10
Randy Johnson Topps Traded: 12397 graded; 3101 PSA 10
Randy Johnson 1989 Donruss: 7589 graded; 1183 PSA 10

Greg Maddux 1987 Donruss: 28961 graded; 2457 PSA 10
Greg Maddux 1987 Topps Traded: 13127 graded; 3789 PSA 10
Greg Maddux Topps Traded Tiffany 3097 graded; 584 PSA 10
Greg Maddux 1987 Fleer Glossy: 6809 graded; 892 PSA 10

Pedro Martinez 1991 UD Final Edition: 22778 graded; 3759 PSA 10
Pedro Martinez 1992 Bowman: 9917 graded; 1551 PSA 10

Clayton Kershaw Topps UH: 2010 graded; 879 PSA 10
Clayton Kershaw Topps UH GOLD: 60 graded; 20 PSA 10
Clayton Kershaw Topps UH GOLD FOIL: 103 graded; 41 PSA 10
Clayton Kershaw Topps UH BLACK: 4 graded; 1 PSA 10
Clayton Kershaw Topps Chrome UH: 48 graded; 22 PSA 10

Yep. I think HOF collecting will totally change when the 2001 and later RC classes start getting in. There are only so many Golds, Blacks, etc. and there won’t be enough to go around.

On the original question, I definitely think if he can change the narrative about his post season performance then long-term values will rise. It’s been the biggest knock on him. But one game doesn’t do it. He likely has a ton of playoff innings remaining in his career. It’s a story that remains to be written.

[Lonewolf]

Originally Posted by 2infinitybeyond

I love Kershaw. That being said, I don't know if he was dominant last night or if the Brewers are just that bad. There were a few hangers in there that the Brewers just missed.

Regardless, Kershaw is a legend to me and I don't believe all this "can't pitch in postseason" BS. He was truly dominant in Game 1 of the 2017 WS and that Game 5 "collapse" was the Astros cheating their way to a ring.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Agreed! Somebody actually pays attention.

[The Nasty Nati]

Originally Posted by Coug46n2

Hankook tires really are good tires. At least I like mine.

Lol that commercial makes zero sense. If he's such a great pitcher why have the entire commercial be about him saving a home run that he almost gave up.

[The Nasty Nati]

Originally Posted by dfenno

Yep. I think HOF collecting will totally change when the 2001 and later RC classes start getting in. There are only so many Golds, Blacks, etc. and there won’t be enough to go around.

On the original question, I definitely think if he can change the narrative about his post season performance then long-term values will rise. It’s been the biggest knock on him. But one game doesn’t do it. He likely has a ton of playoff innings remaining in his career. It’s a story that remains to be written.

Personally, I don't think HOF collectors will care about acquiring every single parallel version. There will just be too many to go after for every modern HOF player who has a card made after 2001.

[2010GBPackers]

Did you know you can get his '06 BC gold refractor auto for $4k???!!! Sure, it's an 8.5, but still. Luis Robert's ugly green refractor sells for more than that....

#notmycard

[mfw13]

He's a first ballot HOFer no matter what, but a dominant postseason that ends with the Dodgers as WS champs certainly changes the narrative in his favor.

[ewokpelts]

Originally Posted by coachnip13

........but they didn't win four games in the World Series? Seems pretty obvious.

Are you an Astros or Red Sox fan?

[Nostalgia]

How many Kershaw blacks are in circulation?

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by signal_fifty

Best pitcher in the last 50 years?!? You are out of your mind.

Care to share who was better since 1970? Guess who is #1 in ERA in the last 50 years among pitchers with at least 2000 innings? Kershaw, by alot. He's in 1st at 2.43, 2nd at 2.82 and only two others under 3.00. FIP? #1 in that too.

Dominance in his era? That's Kershaw again too. 1st in ERA- at 63(this is a measure of ERA vs your competition at the time)

[WizardofOz1982]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Care to share who was better since 1970? Guess who is #1 in ERA in the last 50 years among pitchers with at least 2000 innings? Kershaw, by alot. He's in 1st at 2.43, 2nd at 2.82 and only two others under 3.00. FIP? #1 in that too.

Dominance in his era? That's Kershaw again too. 1st in ERA- at 63(this is a measure of ERA vs your competition at the time)

Clemens, Ryan, Johnson, Maddux, Pedro? All five of them as it stands now.

2,333 innings of 2.75 FIP (Kershaw) or 5,159 innings of 2.96 FIP (Ryan)? The problem with your argument is you're not taking Kershaw's eventual decline into consideration. Do you think he's still going to be running a 2.75 FIP when he's done? Not a chance.

[dfenno]

Originally Posted by The Nasty Nati

Personally, I don't think HOF collectors will care about acquiring every single parallel version. There will just be too many to go after for every modern HOF player who has a card made after 2001.

I think the focus will be on black and gold. Blacks will likely rarely see the light of day once they get put away in collections, though, so most of the action will be in golds.

[dfenno]

Originally Posted by Nostalgia

How many Kershaw blacks are in circulation?

57 printed. Probably a handful sell annually.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by WizardofOz1982

Clemens, Ryan, Johnson, Maddux, Pedro? All five of them as it stands now.

2,333 innings of 2.75 FIP (Kershaw) or 5,159 innings of 2.96 FIP (Ryan)? The problem with your argument is you're not taking Kershaw's eventual decline into consideration. Do you think he's still going to be running a 2.75 FIP when he's done? Not a chance.

Nolan Ryan's FIP was the product of lower HRs in that era. Compare FIP- which measures them vs their peers and Ryan was an 82 and Kershaw was 69.

Kershaw's decline? What decline? He's had an ERA over 3 once in his career and it was 3.03. He had a 2.16 ERA this season and could've been Cy if he had the innings along with his highest average FB velocity in years. He's only 32. There's no reason he can't follow Scherzer/Verlander's path and still be one of the best pitchers in baseball well into his mid 30s. When he starts to decline into something other than one of the best pitchers in baseball you can asses what his decline will look like. As it stands right now he's the most dominant pitcher in the last 50 years, even if you just want to measure each pitcher's first 12 seasons

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by BBases31

The unquestioned best pitcher of his generation and best pitcher in the last 50 years

Questioned

[Nostalgia]

Originally Posted by dfenno

57 printed. Probably a handful sell annually.

I think there's just 2 on Ebay now.

1 is raw for 1500...but all 4 corners and some of edges are white
1 is BGS 8.5 for 4000

[WizardofOz1982]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Nolan Ryan's FIP was the product of lower HRs in that era. Compare FIP- which measures them vs their peers and Ryan was an 82 and Kershaw was 69.

Kershaw's decline? What decline? He's had an ERA over 3 once in his career and it was 3.03. He had a 2.16 ERA this season and could've been Cy if he had the innings along with his highest average FB velocity in years. He's only 32. There's no reason he can't follow Scherzer/Verlander's path and still be one of the best pitchers in baseball well into his mid 30s. When he starts to decline into something other than one of the best pitchers in baseball you can asses what his decline will look like. As it stands right now he's the most dominant pitcher in the last 50 years, even if you just want to measure each pitcher's first 12 seasons

Lower HRs? HR rate was basically unchanged from the 50s until 2015. It fluctuated around the mean a little bit of course but it is one of the few things that has stayed mostly constant. The fact that Kershaw has pitched in the best pitcher's park in baseball history for his entire career while 3 of 4 of Ryan's home parks were hitter's parks is much more likely to influence those numbers than the overall rate.

He ran FIPs around or below 2.50 until 2016 and it has been over 3, cresting at 3.86 last year since then. All his peripherals have declined the last three years. He's in decline even with his defense saving him some runs and good luck, as evidenced by the ERA/FIP gap. The gap between his 2.16 ERA this year and his 3.31 FIP is one of the largest of any starter. He got extremely lucky this year on results. He has a history of chronic back injuries. Everything about his profile says he's more likely to be done by 35 than to extend past it toward 40 like Verlander, Greinke, and Scherzer have done.

[rman112]

He was awesome, but let's not forget how bad that Brewers offense was this year. If he really flips the script in the WS, different story.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by WizardofOz1982

He ran FIPs around or below 2.50 until 2016 and it has been over 3, cresting at 3.86 last year since then. All his peripherals have declined the last three years. He's in decline even with his defense saving him some runs and good luck, as evidenced by the ERA/FIP gap. The gap between his 2.16 ERA this year and his 3.31 FIP is one of the largest of any starter. He got extremely lucky this year on results. He has a history of chronic back injuries. Everything about his profile says he's more likely to be done by 35 than to extend past it toward 40 like Verlander, Greinke, and Scherzer have done.

Dodgers defense from 2016-2020 has been barely above average, saving 3 runs a season(https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...date=&enddate=).

The reason his ERA is ahead of his FIP is because he excels at giving up soft contact. That's one of the reasons he's so dominant! You're looking at the difference as a negative but it's actually one of his skills . Career average BABIP of .263

[JRX]

I'm a Yankees fan, but what Pedro did in the AL East at the height of the steroid era was unreal. There's maybe some bias since most people haven't seen a ton of Kershaw with him being on the west coast. I'd say he's def the best of his generation, but I wouldn't put him up there with Maddux, Pedro, and Randy yet.

[JRX]

from 97 to 03 Pedro averaged an ERA+ of 213 with a high of 291
Maddux 92 to 98 197 with high 271

I think over time people forget how dominant these guys really were

[rats60]

Originally Posted by 2infinitybeyond

I love Kershaw. That being said, I don't know if he was dominant last night or if the Brewers are just that bad. There were a few hangers in there that the Brewers just missed.

Regardless, Kershaw is a legend to me and I don't believe all this "can't pitch in postseason" BS. He was truly dominant in Game 1 of the 2017 WS and that Game 5 "collapse" was the Astros cheating their way to a ring.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

The Brewers had a losing record.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by WizardofOz1982

Clemens, Ryan, Johnson, Maddux, Pedro? All five of them as it stands now.

2,333 innings of 2.75 FIP (Kershaw) or 5,159 innings of 2.96 FIP (Ryan)? The problem with your argument is you're not taking Kershaw's eventual decline into consideration. Do you think he's still going to be running a 2.75 FIP when he's done? Not a chance.

Tom Seaver was better than all of those guys.