The Official Luis Robert Thread

[rman112]

BBases.. do you have Bellinger's 2 strike numbers going back to last year?

I know that last year when he was red hot, his 2 strike hitting was huge. Doing that consistently at a very high level isn't sustainable, but I'd be curious to know.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by rman112

BBases.. do you have Bellinger's 2 strike numbers going back to last year?

I know that last year when he was red hot, his 2 strike hitting was huge. Doing that consistently at a very high level isn't sustainable, but I'd be curious to know.

If we are talking “streakiness”... Bellinger has been a “tail of two halves” this season.

1st half (26 games to 8/20) vs his 2nd half show him turning it totally around. And if you push it to 28 games it gets even stronger.

He mostly just had a very bad early season through 8/18. Which ironically was the day after this was published: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cody-bel...l-sample-woes/

Essentially his .181 BABIP in those first 24 games was a HUGE part of his issue. He was still walking a lot, and maintaining a low K%. Along with him trying a new swing that had him challenged w/breaking balls that sapped power.

Fast forward to the 2nd half, he’s eliminated that issue... his slash since 8/19 is .298/.397/.558 and wRC+ 159 and produced 14th highest fWAR.

A great batter makes adjustments.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MJRaider]

LOL at people comparing Bellinger's very short lived struggles amid a proven, elite record and Luis freaking Robert's entire MLB career to date.

[DrewTheMan]

You're starting to Luis Roberts card prices fall. I've stopped buying him as well. Hope it crashes even more as he goes 0 for 40, so I can start buying again lol

[crpav]

I know this thread is going crazy. Arguing back and forth. The reason is so easily apparent yet neither side wants to meet in the middle.

Face it, fans are, or should be, mad because is he sucking and hurting the team in a very crucial time. Fans don't want to see their stars, potential stars, or anyone on their team suck especially when their is the chance of playoff and world series aspirations.

Hobby wise he is basically destroying the main reason products were so high. I like that though since stupid pricing on chasing a guy to profit is stupid. Love seeing garbage breaks cost 700+ for a White Sox spot for a 150 return average. Oh I'm gambling on hitting that red auto. GTFO with that because you are taking away the ability of any standard collector to have a chance unless they want to sell their house. Don't give me the trash lines of this isn't your old collectors hobby anymore. It isn't because trash allowed it to be this way. Clean it up! Price accordingly and stop giving the answer of getting in on the ground floor for the next Trout. Can't be the ground floor when it's already at the ceiling for an unproven guy. Trout earned his status with production not started high, did good, went higher. Topps, distributors, breakers and those who keep selling and buying at these levels are to blame and I won't have one shed of sympathy if it crashes.

I guess I don't know why I am rambling and mad. It's because I spent like an idiot but also a White Sox fan. Not in it for the money but as a fan I don't want the hobby like it is and don't want to see the Sox suck. First to say then leave or the hobby isn't for me can leave as well.

[shayscards79]

Originally Posted by DrewTheMan

You're starting to Luis Roberts card prices fall. I've stopped buying him as well. Hope it crashes even more as he goes 0 for 40, so I can start buying again lol

Same here. Topps RCs are holding steady at $15ish still though. Once they hit $10 I'll probably start buying.

[Giancarlo27]

It’s almost like a chicken or the egg situation. It seems to me that Robert prices are high BECAUSE wax prices are high, not the other way around. Robert is crucial to justifying the insane prices being charged, so a lot of people in the hobby have incentives to maintain his inflated pricing that is not justified by his performance or likelihood of attaining HOF status

[Archangel1775]

LouBob is still going to be a good buy. Any player that is having a terrible 2020 can tell you many things. It's not easy being isolated.

[FuzzySparkles]

I'm not saying the Luis Robert is Trout (and the strike out rate is way too high)...but I think we should all relax a bit:

Player Year G HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS
Luis Robert 2020 51 11 30 8 .230 .302 .454 .756
Mike Trout 2011 40 5 16 4 .220 .281 .390 .672

[MJRaider]

LouBob isn’t a good buy yet and there’s entire faction motivated to make sure he never does despite what the field play might indicate.

[MJRaider]

Originally Posted by FuzzySparkles

I'm not saying the Luis Robert is Trout (and the strike out rate is way too high)...but I think we should all relax a bit:

Player Year G HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS
Luis Robert 2020 51 11 30 8 .230 .302 .454 .756
Mike Trout 2011 40 5 16 4 .220 .281 .390 .672

4 years apart in age, 9 years apart in how the game is now played. I’m not giving any credence to that comparison.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by MJRaider

4 years apart in age, 9 years apart in how the game is now played. I’m not giving any credence to that comparison.

The red flag is his plate discipline. Trout had good plate discipline when he came up, but had bad results. That usually corrects itself. I haven't done the research to see if anyone started with bad plate discipline and got significantly better.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by crpav

I know this thread is going crazy. Arguing back and forth. The reason is so easily apparent yet neither side wants to meet in the middle.

Face it, fans are, or should be, mad because is he sucking and hurting the team in a very crucial time. Fans don't want to see their stars, potential stars, or anyone on their team suck especially when their is the chance of playoff and world series aspirations.

Hobby wise he is basically destroying the main reason products were so high. I like that though since stupid pricing on chasing a guy to profit is stupid. Love seeing garbage breaks cost 700+ for a White Sox spot for a 150 return average. Oh I'm gambling on hitting that red auto. GTFO with that because you are taking away the ability of any standard collector to have a chance unless they want to sell their house. Don't give me the trash lines of this isn't your old collectors hobby anymore. It isn't because trash allowed it to be this way. Clean it up! Price accordingly and stop giving the answer of getting in on the ground floor for the next Trout. Can't be the ground floor when it's already at the ceiling for an unproven guy. Trout earned his status with production not started high, did good, went higher. Topps, distributors, breakers and those who keep selling and buying at these levels are to blame and I won't have one shed of sympathy if it crashes.

I guess I don't know why I am rambling and mad. It's because I spent like an idiot but also a White Sox fan. Not in it for the money but as a fan I don't want the hobby like it is and don't want to see the Sox suck. First to say then leave or the hobby isn't for me can leave as well.

This is it in a nutshell. Back in 2011/2012 you could get Trout cards for cheap and they didn't get to stupid numbers until recently. The constant hype of every new prospect has made things unsustainable to where guys are getting future careers priced in that they can't reasonably achieve.

[seabass97166]

I always see this thread at the top and the titles look similar to the Luka Doncic thread. I don't get a chance to see the White Sox play too often, but I got to see them yesterday as they were the MLB.tv free game of day. Wow, I expected a lot more from this guy considering he's on page 1 all the time. Slump and sub par stats aside, I didn't see any wow factor whatsoever. In fact, he totally misplayed the 3rd out in extra innings that allowed Lindor to reach base and ultimately JRam hit a 3run HR. Could have ended the game with a pretty routine play. He reached up to catch the ball and it landed about 2 feet under his glove near his head.

I expected a Juan Soto like electric seeing as though he is always on page 1...but this dude was just another guy. He's young though, so who knows.


Side note, Trea Turner is a way better ball player than Bryce Harper.
.

[FuzzySparkles]

Originally Posted by JRX

The red flag is his plate discipline. Trout had good plate discipline when he came up, but had bad results. That usually corrects itself. I haven't done the research to see if anyone started with bad plate discipline and got significantly better.

Barry Bonds is an example (off the top of my head). But there are plenty.

I don't want it to sound like I'm a Luis Robert fan (because I'm not) but I think it is an over reaction to judge a player based on his rookie stats, especially in a year like this one, where there is no routine, no crowd, no normal.

[progers9119]

The "investors" that went in on Robert were completely fooled into the hype rather than evaluating the player himself. The troublesome signs were there from the beginning. A simple look at the swing metrics/tendencies would've shown the alarming swing rates and total lack of discipline. Not a little high, not a little trouble -- off the charts bad tendencies. It doesn't take a genius to figure that pitchers would take advantage of this. Even when his OPS was north of .800, there were glaring issues.

Luis Robert is far more likely to end up like a Byron Buxton type than the face of the game. The prices were, and still are too high for Robert. For those that want to call me a hater, that's your opinion. I like to think I'm someone that would rather look before they leap.

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by progers9119

The "investors" that went in on Robert were completely fooled into the hype rather than evaluating the player himself. The troublesome signs were there from the beginning. A simple look at the swing metrics/tendencies would've shown the alarming swing rates and total lack of discipline. Not a little high, not a little trouble -- off the charts bad tendencies. It doesn't take a genius to figure that pitchers would take advantage of this. Even when his OPS was north of .800, there were glaring issues.

Luis Robert is far more likely to end up like a Byron Buxton type than the face of the game. The prices were, and still are too high for Robert. For those that want to call me a hater, that's your opinion. I like to think I'm someone that would rather look before they leap.

Spot on. Here's some takes from Fangraphs scouting reports over the years:

2019: "There's doubt that he'll get to all of his raw power in games, both due to the swing path and lack of plate discipline...The ceiling is the same as it was purported to be before he signed: power, speed, offensive performance similar to Carlos Gomez's best years. There's just more risk that Robert doesn't get there."

2020: "Robert does have plate discipline issues. He chases a lot of breaking balls out of the zone and it took a lot of convincing from industry folks to move him as high on my Top 100 as I did even though Robert has the surface-level traits that tend to make me irrationally excited."

This March 2020 Fangraphs article hints at future struggles.. https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/why-lu...ly-overvalued/

"If you ignore his Rookie League lines, Robert owns an ugly 5.4% walk rate to go with his acceptable 24% strikeout rate. That makes for an unsightly 0.225 BB/K ratio. That would have ranked him ninth worst among qualified hitters last season."

"And that 21.5% mark during his first taste of Triple-A action? That would have easily been the highest mark among qualified MLB hitters, besting none other than Javier Baez, who posted an 18.4% SwStk%. In fact, going back as far as FanGraphs has the data for (2002), only one qualified player has even posted a SwStk% over 20%. That honor went to Josh Hamilton back in 2012.

Robert simply cannot succeed by swinging and missing so often.

One wonders how he has managed to strike out at such reasonable rates given the propensity for the whiff. I would guess that he swings at just about everything. You know who else does? Javier Baez, who ranked 10th in Swing% among 135 qualified hitters last year. With Baez’s name continuing to pop up, it would seem he makes for an apt comp for Robert, though perhaps the former’s power/speed combo tilts a bit more toward power, while Robert’s mix is opposite. Remember, though, Baez represents Robert’s ultimate player type upside, and does not make for a reasonable projection match."

This is the risk with high upside toolsy prospects. We haven't seen a big bust in a couple years (although Ohtani is starting to feel like one). The risk was ALWAYS downplayed with Robert.

[Zauron]

The plate discipline is why I never bought into Robert. I think he can be a good/great player, but those type of numbers will get you killed in the majors unless you can fix it.

It's one reason I'm so high on Juan Soto for his plate discipline. Acuna is starting to get better.

Robert's prices out the gate were way too high IMO. I think if the White Sox don't do anything in the playoffs, Robert prices might fall in the offseason and then become a possible good buy.

But, he really needs to change the plate discipline otherwise he's an early Sammy Sosa/Carlos Gomez/Buxton.
Sosa hit for a low average, didn't walk, struck out a lot, hit 30 homeruns, and stole 30 bases in those early years.

[towerymt]

None of this is surprising. His 35/45 hit tool grade (source: fangraphs) and his minor league BB% / K% showed what kind of hitter he was.

Cody Bellinger was another FV 60 prospect, but his hit tool was graded 30/45...even worse! But he drew walks at around 10% in the minors and kept the K% under 30%.

Then Belly cut his K% by ~10%.

Now the clock has started on Luis Robert. What adjustments can he make to improve his plate discipline? Does he need to improve it to be successful? What are you looking for as a sign of progress?

He leads MLB in swinging strike percent (SwStr%) and he's 2nd in Swing%. 3rd lowest Contact%. He's in the Javy Baez mold...swing at everything, chase out of the zone, miss a decent percent of the time, but hit the ball hard when making contact. I'd expect Robert to run a high BABIP like Baez...only this year Robert has the 2nd highest percent of soft contact (Soft%). Not great.

Interesting stat here...1st Pitch Swing%. 55% vs. 28% league AVG:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

I'd have to think coaches & pitchers would catch on and try to throw him a first pitch that he can't do anything with. He's not taking many pitches so there's less of a need to throw strikes, certainly on the first pitch. Off the plate outside? High above the numbers? He pops up a lot, too. Cutter in? I have not looked into this in depth, but would be curious about the trend in zone% of the first pitch of each AB.

I was never in on Luis Robert. Price way too high for the hit tool. Everything else looks great, though....speed, power, defense. He could be a great player, but he's got work to do.

[thenwhatjk]

Well this has certainly taken a turn

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by thenwhatjk

Well this has certainly taken a turn

BREAKING NEWS:
clectors are happy, vestors are FURIOUS and LIVID

[cardozo]

Prices for Luis Robert weren’t high about a year and a half ago, people who got in then are going to bank even if his offense remains average, 20-25 homeruns a year and potential elite defense. I agree that at this time his prices are too high, mainly because people spent a lot of money on group breaks or personal cases and need to get the best possible return and unfortunately realism is left behind. So Luis Robert is in no way to blame for the stupid high pricing and unless he is voted MVP after his rookie season these should drop and a lot of new investors will loose money, I’m both a fan and investor and I’m patiently waiting for sellers to start dropping prices so I can expand my collect without having to take a second mortgage.

People need to settle down and give a young guy who has only played 51 games in the majors the benefit of the doubt and hope he will turn things around, a good Robert will be a great addition to the game of baseball, why wouldn’t you want him to succeed. Maybe it’s time to focus on the positive instead of the negative.

Go White Sox .

[MJRaider]

Originally Posted by cardozo

Prices for Luis Robert weren’t high about a year and a half ago, people who got in then are going to bank even if his offense remains average, 20-25 homeruns a year and potential elite defense. I agree that at this time his prices are too high, mainly because people spent a lot of money on group breaks or personal cases and need to get the best possible return and unfortunately realism is left behind. So Luis Robert is in no way to blame for the stupid high pricing and unless he is voted MVP after his rookie season these should drop and a lot of new investors will loose money, I’m both a fan and investor and I’m patiently waiting for sellers to start dropping prices so I can expand my collect without having to take a second mortgage.

People need to settle down and give a young guy who has only played 51 games in the majors the benefit of the doubt and hope he will turn things around, a good Robert will be a great addition to the game of baseball, why wouldn’t you want him to succeed. Maybe it’s time to focus on the positive instead of the negative.

Go White Sox .

I don't think anyone has anything against Luis Robert the baseball player. I do think there is a healthy number of collectors and other investors that would love to see flagship and other prices start dropping to far more affordable levels and he'd be the prime catalyst to that. Plus you'd rid the baseball hobby of lots of Target shenanigans because those losers have zero patience, discipline or focus. They'll move onto the next thing (Basketball, Iraqi Dinar, Beanie Babies, whatever 2021 brings) to lose their ass...again.

[cardozo]

Originally Posted by MJRaider

I don't think anyone has anything against Luis Robert the baseball player. I do think there is a healthy number of collectors and other investors that would love to see flagship and other prices start dropping to far more affordable levels and he'd be the prime catalyst to that. Plus you'd rid the baseball hobby of lots of Target shenanigans because those losers have zero patience, discipline or focus. They'll move onto the next thing (Basketball, Iraqi Dinar, Beanie Babies, whatever 2021 brings) to lose their ass...again.

For sure .

The one thing I’ve learned is that Luis Robert is immensely popular and very likable, just hope the potential wow factor starts evolving beginning with the upcoming playoffs.

[yrocks2001]

Luis Robert is in a slump, it happens. In a shortened season everything is magnified. He's still a current and future star who I have no doubt will improve. If anyone is selling at "bum" levels please shoot me a PM with what you have.