Michael Jordan 90's inserts by the odds

[Saraste]

Ken, this is an awesome reference, but I do have a question about the 1994-95 Collector's Choice gold sigs and 1995-96 PPCs. Did you figure the hot packs that were 1 in 720 pack pulls into your odds?

[buckunteer]

I believe I have 24 on that list- had 2-3 more that I sold for my Costa Rica trip a few months back.

That number is misleading though as many are from lower-end sets and/or the same set (3 different CC gold sigs, all 6 PCP from 95-96 CC, 3 electric court golds from 95-96 UD, etc.) I really don't have any of the big ticket items at all. I need to clear out non-PC stuff and make some $ and start going after the higher quality stuff!

Originally Posted by duron

^buck don't you have tons of mj's on this list though?


Also, something that might be a glaring oversight...
...Production numbers for individual players.

I've always considered it a given that every player in every insert set had the same amount of copies produced (especially for serial numbered stuff), but are we 100% sure that's the case, across the board?



How much did you pay? They've been going for obscene amounts.

[CastleBeachCards]

No, It's an assortment of PCP and crash the game. With the set being over 200 cards per series plus crash the game, I don't think it makes a significant impact, plus theres no way to accurately changing the odds.

Originally Posted by Saraste

Ken, this is an awesome reference, but I do have a question about the 1994-95 Collector's Choice gold sigs and 1995-96 PPCs. Did you figure the hot packs that were 1 in 720 pack pulls into your odds?

[the27guy]

Originally Posted by Kenfancypants

No, It's an assortment of PCP and crash the game. With the set being over 200 cards per series plus crash the game, I don't think it makes a significant impact, plus theres no way to accurately changing the odds.

I could be wrong... but I think it does. If memory serves, gold sigs were one a box. 1:36.

But one in 3 boxes-ish, was a hot pack. I still remember getting mine. I had three gold sigs of 100% common players. Also got several crash the games too including a single gold of another common.

Point is though that those hot packs easily could have been responsible for a third- to 40% of the gold sigs.

[wj1984]

Originally Posted by Starman101

You are correct

Per Annual Beckett the odds are 1:34,560 packs to pull the redemption card to obtain the 96 SPX Auto

The list needs to be tweaked just a bit

On another note, also not sure why 98-99 1st Day Issues are on the list but not 97-98 1st Days

I actually could never find the pack odds for either of these FDIs

Im not even sure how the 98-99 odds came about. I never saw it listed in any Beckett

I believe from 1996/97 they started to not print odds on numbered cards such as flair legacy, ex credentials etc.

Remember back then I was like 12 years old and hoping to pull 1 of those numbered cards

I still have some old packs from 96 to 97 (Singapore stop selling basketball cards and switch to MTG / Pokémon)... would take some photos for this thread later today!

[Saraste]

Originally Posted by the27guy

I could be wrong... but I think it does. If memory serves, gold sigs were one a box. 1:36.

But one in 3 boxes-ish, was a hot pack. I still remember getting mine. I had three gold sigs of 100% common players. Also got several crash the games too including a single gold of another common.

Point is though that those hot packs easily could have been responsible for a third- to 40% of the gold sigs.

The pack odds for golds and platinums were 1 in 35 with the hot packs being 1 in 720 in both. Unfortunately I opened enough of both to remember. I put together the silver signature/player's club sets back then, hence the large amount of pack busting.

[the27guy]

Originally Posted by Saraste

The pack odds for golds and platinums were 1 in 35 with the hot packs being 1 in 720 in both. Unfortunately I opened enough of both to remember. I put together the silver signature/player's club sets back then, hence the large amount of pack busting.

Jeez. Is that right? I remember when I got my hot pack, people were losing their minds. You know what though... it might have been 04-05. I’m thinking that it might have been players club platinums and not golds. Some help I am. Haha.

[duron]

Originally Posted by duron

Also, something that might be a glaring oversight...
...Production numbers for individual players.

I've always considered it a given that every player in every insert set had the same amount of copies produced (especially for serial numbered stuff), but are we 100% sure that's the case, across the board?

Still curious about this.

[buckunteer]

Originally Posted by Saraste

The pack odds for golds and platinums were 1 in 35 with the hot packs being 1 in 720 in both. Unfortunately I opened enough of both to remember. I put together the silver signature/player's club sets back then, hence the large amount of pack busting.

That's incredible. I did hit a hot pack of 95-96 Fleer once, pulled the whole scoring kings hot pack version out of that one, which was pretty cool. If I remember though the hot pack odds on that product were a lot easier.


I did, however, hit that 1:720 pack redemption that got me the regular, player's club, and PCP of the debut sets. Easily one of the coolest cards I hit even to this day- and I still have all three sets! The Magic Johnson and McDyess PCPs were selling for like $30-$40 all day long when those redemptions finally came in. Crazy. Good times

[mc1]

Originally Posted by Saraste

The pack odds for golds and platinums were 1 in 35 with the hot packs being 1 in 720 in both. Unfortunately I opened enough of both to remember. I put together the silver signature/player's club sets back then, hence the large amount of pack busting.

I don't think 1:720 for the hot packs is right. I remember "some" CC hot pack listed at 1:145 packs but I don't know if it was 94/95 or 95/96. If I recall they were hobby only and the factory set also came with 4-5 PCP from either series.

From Beckett:

These 410-standard size cards, issued in two seperate series of 210 and 200 cards respectively, comprise Upper Deck's 1995-96 Collector's Choice set. Cards were primarily issued in 12-card hobby and retail packs (suggested retail price of ninety-nine cents) and five-card retail mini-packs. In addition, large retail chain stores received complete factory sets around the end of the season (SRP $29.97). Each factory set contains a basic 410 card set, four Collector's Choice Jordan Collection inserts, four Player's Club Platinum inserts and a special 5" by 7" Bulls Commemorative card celebrating their 70 win season. Regular issue cards feature white-bordered fronts with color player action shots. The backs have a color photo and statistics. The following subsets are included: Fun Facts (166-194), Professor Dunk (195-208), Scouting Report (321-349), Playoff Time (350-365), I Love this Team (366-394), Photo Gallery (395-403) and Shawn Kemp's Top 40 (404-408). Special Crash Packs containing only inserts (an assortion of Player's Club, Player's Club Platinum and Crash the Game cards) were randomly inserted into one in every 175 12-card packs. Rookie Cards of note include Michael Finley, Kevin Garnett, Joe Smith, Jerry Stackhouse and Damon Stoudamire.

[Saraste]

I don't recall seeing the mixed insert hot packs. I'm guessing those with the 1 in 175 pack odds were retail only as I only busted boxes from my LCS. The hot packs that were 1 in 720 contained only Platinum Player's Club parallels. The same odds existed for the Gold Signature hot packs in 1994-95.

Buckunteer, the pack odds for some of the 1995-96 Fleer insert sets were something like 1 in every 4 or 5 boxes. Those I don't remember quite as well. Also, if I recall, there were insert hot packs in 1994-95 Fleer that were like 1 in 72 that contained an assortment of inserts.

I ended up with one of the Platinum Update redemptions from 1995-96. I also had at least 2 or 3 of the Players Club redemptions, which were one in every 4 or 5 boxes, and more base redemption sets than I care to admit.

Can anyone tell I opened a bunch of basketball at the time. I lived in Chicago in the 90's until late 1996. Basketball was king for a period of time in Chicago. Second series 1995-96 Dennis Rodman cards in a Bulls uniform outsold Jordan and Pippen.

[pryantexas]

Originally Posted by Chain

Great info. It might also be interesting to multiply these odds with pack SRP.

And multiply the number of cards in the set

Makes some of those finest refractor numbers seem that much more impressive/hard to pull

[duron]

Noticed an error with the 96-97 Maximum Metal, there were 20 cards in the set, not 10, so it should be 1:3,600. (1:180 packs). But more importantly, I'm still curious about this...

Originally Posted by duron

I've always considered it a given that every player in every insert set had the same amount of copies produced (especially for serial numbered stuff), but are we 100% sure that's the case, across the board?

[Soleternity]

Originally Posted by Kenfancypants

If you look at the list, the rarest top 12 (why not include the remainder 2?) non serial numbered inserts/parallels excluding patches/jersey/auto are:

#12 - 1996/97 Finest Gold Refractor 1:5,184
#11 - 1997/98 Skybox Golden Touch 1:5,400
#10 - 1997/98 Metal Championship Hardware 1:5,400
#9 - 1997/98 Ultra Ultrabilities Superstar 1:5,760
#8 - 1997/98 Ultra Star Power Supreme 1:5,760
#7 - 1997/98 Hoops Frequent Flyer Upgrade 1:7,200
#6 - 1997/98 Stadium Club Triumvirate Illuminator 1:9,216
#5 - 1997/98 E-X2001 Jambalaya 1:10,800
#4 - 1996/97 Z-Force Big Man On Court Z-Peat 1:11,200
#2/#3 - 1996/97 Ultra Platinum Medallion Series 1 1:27,000 Series 2 1:15,000

#1 - 1997/98 Ultra Stars Gold 1:28,800

Great post!

96-97 PM and BMOC Z-Peat have staggeringly tough odds. Prices are relatively modest in light of tbat. Is it all due to fear of fakes?

[the27guy]

Originally Posted by Soleternity

Great post!

96-97 PM and BMOC Z-Peat have staggeringly tough odds. Prices are relatively modest in light of tbat. Is it all due to fear of fakes?

Three part answer.

1. Yes. Especially on those bmoc.

2. Id argue that both of those sets are missing the “it” “iconic” factor. Not saying they’re not great. Just saying they’re not jambalayas.

3. Odds are only part of the equation. Product scarcity, perceived value, and other factors abound.

[drobfan8]

Originally Posted by Soleternity

Great post!

96-97 PM and BMOC Z-Peat have staggeringly tough odds. Prices are relatively modest in light of tbat. Is it all due to fear of fakes?

To.me the design element is lacking. Never seen the Z Peat in hand though. But the standard copy is, well, pretty standard.

Just my opinion though, but I would take 100 other 90s inserts over those.

[6celtics33]

I love the big men on court standard issue

Also, ultra stars is 1:288 with a 20 card set for 1:5760 regular and 1:57600 gold

[weigel618]

Makes me sick to think I had the entire set of ultra stars gold back in 2007 and sold it for 500.

[buckunteer]

My new goal: Get just ONE of the bolded MJs. I'm gonna go through and check average sales price and see how cheap one can be had haha. I have some favorites in mind (96-97 Finest gold refractor, Hoops frequent flyer upgrade, game dated memorable moments (HUGELY underrated parallel), etc. Wish me luck

[the27guy]

Originally Posted by buckunteer

My new goal: Get just ONE of the bolded MJs. I'm gonna go through and check average sales price and see how cheap one can be had haha. I have some favorites in mind (96-97 Finest gold refractor, Hoops frequent flyer upgrade, game dated memorable moments (HUGELY underrated parallel), etc. Wish me luck

You can do it! Seriously, some are more affordable than others.... you got this. Here's one of my more affordable ones.

[buckunteer]

can't see which card it is 'cause I'm at work and some photo-sharing services are blocked (I'm a substitute teacher, gotta make sure the kiddos aren't looking at naughty things haha) It's gonna be tough though many of the ones in bold go for at least $150-$200 more than I remember them going for the last time I checked any of them out!

As an aside, the rarest one I currently have is the Fleer Tiffany parallel (1:4000). And, of course, stupid Beckett mislabeled it when they graded it and labeled it Crystal instead. Ugh lol

[the27guy]

Originally Posted by buckunteer

As an aside, the rarest one I currently have is the Fleer Tiffany parallel (1:4000). And, of course, stupid Beckett mislabeled it when they graded it and labeled it Crystal instead. Ugh lol

underrated. I'm sure there are cards w holofoil before that one..... but they escape me atm.

[Starman101]

Originally Posted by buckunteer

My new goal: Get just ONE of the bolded MJs. I'm gonna go through and check average sales price and see how cheap one can be had haha. I have some favorites in mind (96-97 Finest gold refractor, Hoops frequent flyer upgrade, game dated memorable moments (HUGELY underrated parallel), etc. Wish me luck

Agree on this. 96-97 Gold Refractor, 97-98 Silver Embossed Refractor, 97-98 Game Game Dated Memorable Moments, & 96-97 Ultra Platinum Medallion are probably the best value "BOLDs" on this entire list and could still be had for a decent price

Right on target with the 97-98 Embossed Silver Refractor above^^^

I actually prefer the looks of the Silver Embossed over even the Gold Embossed Refractor

Killer card that could be had for a VERY reasonable price

Originally Posted by drobfan8

To.me the design element is lacking. Never seen the Z Peat in hand though. But the standard copy is, well, pretty standard.

Just my opinion though, but I would take 100 other 90s inserts over those.

Originally Posted by the27guy

Three part answer.

1. Yes. Especially on those bmoc.

2. Id argue that both of those sets are missing the “it” “iconic” factor. Not saying they’re not great. Just saying they’re not jambalayas.

3. Odds are only part of the equation. Product scarcity, perceived value, and other factors abound.

I love all the BMOC inserts, but I think the Asian fakes have REALLY hurt the values of both the 96-97 Z-Peat as well as the 96-97 Regular version. Given the Z-Peat odds and the fact that a 97-98 BMOC in Gem is now a 3k card, had it not been for the Asian fakes, I'd think a Gem Z-Peat would be at least a 5k card today, ala a 97-98 Ultra Star Gold

While I agree Z-Peats aren't Jambalayas, Jambalayas have also had their issues with kenscope sheet-cuts and MANY Jambalayas that appear WAY overgraded to me, by BGS in particular

I love ALL the Bolds on this list but my favorite is and will always be his first 3 Jersey Cards and 96 SPx Auto.

I'd take ANY of those over ANY Jambalaya any day of the week

[buckunteer]

Good call on the 96-97 Platinum Medallion I had forgotten about those. They aren't physically numbered so they don't get the fanfare of the others, but it's the first year they did them and they still only put out 250 of each. Only one currently on ebay is the Step It Up subset. Not quite as nice-looking, but definitely markedly more affordable than just about every other bold card on the list!

[Starman101]

Another classic card that doesnt get enough love is 93-94 Stadium Club 1st Days Issues which were really one of the earliest premium parallel sets

These are VERY condition sensitive as are 93-94 Stadium Club cards as a whole and are pretty affordable, rare cards with beautiful photography.

The 93-94 SC Triple Double photo is one of my favorite photos of MJ on ANY card, possibly even in my top 5 favorite photos of MJ

Back in the 90s, the 93-94 FDIs were just as important to me as a collector as his 93-94 Scoring Kings

And nothings changed since

93-94 Stadium Club FDIs are awesome cards that can be had for a pretty reasonable price