Michael Jordan 90's inserts by the odds
 

- Michael Jordan cards from the 90's have seen a tremendous upswing in prices lately and I thought it would be interesting to see what the odds of some of these inserts are. I have left out inserts and parallels where odds were never released.

We are looking at odds of getting a Jordan (or any specific player for that matter)
I'll be focusing on sets where the odds are at least 1:1,000+
What's interesting is that there are many Jordan's where the odds are quite low that outsell many of the cards on this list
i.e. 98 E-X Dunk N' Go Nuts (1:720) vs 97 Hoops Frequent Flyer Upgrade (1:7,200) literally 10x harder to get

Formula
(Odds of set x # of cards in set)
If there are different odds for Hobby and retail I will average out the odds, (1:24 hobby and 1:40 retail =1:32)

[B]Any Jordan insert or parallel above 1 in 5,000 packs to hit is in BOLD[/B]

OK, Lets take a look!

[B]1993/94[/B]
Finest Refractor 1:1,430
Stadium Club First Day Issue Series 1 1:2,160 Series 2 1:4,320


[B]1994/95[/B]
Collector's Choice Gold Signature Series 1 1:3,675 Series 2 1:2,450
Finest Refractor 1:1,992
SP Championship Playoff Heroes Die Cut 1:2,250

[B]1995/96[/B]
Collector's Choice Player's Club Platinum Series 1 1:1,838 Series 2 1:2,333
Finest Refractor 1:1,665
Finest Mystery Borderless Refractor 1:2,112
Hoops Skyview 1:4,800
SP All Stars Gold 1:1,830
SP Holoview Diecuts 1:3,040
SP Championship Champions Of The Court Die Cut 1:2,250
[B]1996 SPx Autograph Trade Card 1:34,560[/B]
Topps Mystery Finest Refractor 1:2,772
Topps Power Boosters Series 1 1:1,080
Upper Deck Electric Court Gold Series 1 1:3,150 Series 2 1:1,260
Upper Deck Special Edition Gold 1:3,150



[B]1996/97 [/B]
Bowman's Best Cuts Atomic Refractor 1:3,840
Bowman's Best Honor Roll Atomic Refractor 1:3,840
Bowman's Best Atomic Refractor 1:4,000
E-X2000 A Cut Above 1:2,880
Finest Bronze Refractor 1:1,200
Finest Silver Refractor 1:1,296
[B]Finest Gold Refractor 1:5,184[/B]
Flair Legacy collection 1:2,700
Flair Hot Shots 1:1,800
Fleer Thrill Seekers 1:3,600
Metal Precious Metal 1:3,600
Metal Decade of Excellence 1:1,000
Metal Maximum Metal 1:1,800
Metal Molten Metal 1:1,440
Metal Netrageous 1:2,880
Skybox Golden Touch 1:2,400
Skybox Larger Than Life 1:3,240
Skybox Rubies Series 1 1:3,144 Series 2 1:3,600
Skybox Thunder and Lightening 1:1,440
Skybox Triple Threats SP 1:2,160
SP Game Film 1:1,120
SPX Force 1:1,800
Stadium Club Class Acts Atomic Refractor 1:1,920
Stadium Club Finest Rc Reprint Refractor 1:2,200
Stadium Club Player's Private Issue 1:1,728
Topps Holding Court Refractor 1:1,350
Topps Mystery Finest Borderless 1:1,584
Topps Mystery Finest Refractor 1:1,452 (Jumbo only)
Topps Mystery Borderless Refractor 1:4,752
Topps Super Teams Chicago Bulls 1:1,044
Topps Chrome Refractor 1:2,640
UD3 Superstar Spotlight 1:1,440
Ultra Full Court Trap Gold 1:1,800
Ultra Gold Medallion Series 1 1:1,800
[B]Ultra Platinum Medallion Series 1 1:27,000 Series 2 1:15,000[/B]
Ultra Court Masters 1:2,700
Ultra Scoring Kings Plus 1:2,784
Ultra Starring Role 1:2,880
Upper Deck Smooth Grooves 1:1,080
Upper Deck Rookie of the year collection 1:1,932
Z-Force Big Man On Court 1:2,400
[B]Z-Force Big Man On Court Z-Peat 1:11,200[/B]
Z-Force Slam Cam 1:2,160




[B]1997/98[/B]
Bowman's Best Atomic Refractor 1:2,000
[B]E-X2001 Jambalaya 1:10,800[/B]
Finest Bronze Refractor Series 1 1:2,076 Series 2 1:1,836
Finest Silver Refractor 1:1,584
[B]Finest Silver Embossed Refractor 1:6,336[/B]
[B]Finest Gold Refractor 1:5,760[/B]
[B]Finest Gold Embossed Die Cut Refractor 1:23,040[/B]
Fleer Tiffany Collection 1:4,000
Fleer Decade of Excellence Rare Traditions 1:4,320
Fleer Game Breakers 1:3,456
Fleer Thrill Seekers 1:2,880
[B]Hoops Frequent Flyer Upgrade 1:7,200[/B]
Hoops Hooperstars 1:2,880
Hoops 911 1:2,880
Metal Platinum Portraits 1:4,320
Metal Titanium 1:1,440
Metal Championship Galaxy 1:2,880
[B]Metal Championship Hardware 1:5,400[/B]
[B]Metal Championship Precious Metal Gems 1:17,500[/B]
Skybox Competitive Advantage 1:1,440
[B]Skybox Golden Touch 1:5,400[/B]
Skybox Premium Player 1:2,880
Skybox Silky Smooth 1:3,600
Skybox Thunder and Lightening 1:2,880
1997 SPx Holoview Heroes 1:1,500
1997 SPx ProMotion 1:2,150
SPx Hardcourt Holoviews 1:1,080
SPx ProMotion 1:2,520
Stadium Club First Day Issue 1:2,880 (same for "Bulls Team of the 90's)
[B]Stadium Club One of a Kind 1:10,320 (same for "Bulls Team of the 90's)[/B]
Stadium Club Triumvirate Luminous 1:1,152
Stadium Club Triumvirate Luminescence 1:4,608
[B]Stadium Club Triumvirate Illuminator 1:9,216[/B]
Topps Generations 1:1,080
Topps Generations Refractor 1:4,320
Topps Rock Stars Refractor 1:2,880
Topps Chrome Refractor 1:2,640
Ultra Court Masters 1:2,880
[B]Ultra Star Power Supreme 1:5,760[/B]
Ultra Stars 1:2,880
[B]Ultra Stars Gold 1:28,800[/B]
[B]Ultra Ultrabilities Superstar 1:5,760[/B]
[B]Upper Deck Game Jersey's 1:27,500[/B]
[B]Upper Deck Game Dated Memorable Moments 1:45,000[/B]
Z-Force Big Man On Court 1:4,320
Z-Force Quick Strike 1:1,152
[B]Z-Force Rave Series 1 1:7,700 Series 2 1:7,000[/B]
Z-Force Rave Review 1:3,456
[B]Z-Force Super Rave Series 2 1:56,000[/B] (only made for series 2)


[B]1998/99[/B]
Finest Refractor 1:1,500
Finest No Protector Refractor 1:3,000
Finest Mystery Refractor 1:3,330
Metal Linchpins 1:3,600
Metal 2 for Me 0 For You 1:1,440
Skybox 3'Ds 1:1,440
Skybox Intimidation Nation 1:3,600
Skybox Thunder Flight School 1:1,152
Skybox Thunder Noyz Boyz 1:4,500
Skybox Molten Metal Explosion 1:1,200
[B]Skybox Molten Metal Fusion 1:6,912[/B] (I am taking a stab at the Fusion and Titanium odds based on the bankruptcy sheets
[B]Skybox Molten Metal Titanium 1: 43,200[/B] featured in the Blowout article "What could have been" on page 4 of article)
[B]Stadium Club First Day Issue 1:5,280[/B]
[B]Stadium Club One Of A Kind 1:6,720[/B]
Topps East/West Refractor 1:2,880
Topps Roundball Royalty Refractor 1:2,880
UD Choice Reserve 1:1,200
UD Ionix MJ HoloGrFX 1:1,500
UD Ionix Skyonix 1:1,325
UD Ionix Warp Zone 1:3,240
Ultra Exclamation Points 1:4,320
[B]Upper Deck Game Jersey's 1:25,000[/B]

[B]1999/00[/B]
[B]Upper Deck Game Jersey's 1:25,000[/B]
[B]Upper Deck Game Jersey's Patch 1:112,500[/B]
Upper Deck MJ Final Floor 1:2,500
Upper Deck Power Deck 1:2,500
Upper Deck Century Legends Jersey's Of The Century 1:3,800
Upper Deck HoloGrFX HoloFame Gold 1:1,890
[B]Upper Deck HoloGrFX NBA Shoetime 1:8,189

Some of those are much tougher than you'd expect. I picked up a hoops frequent flyer upgrade Jordan 9.5 for like $315 I think this year. I looked it up and was shocked to see it was 1:7200.

Rarity isn't everything I guess.

Awesome thread

While many don't seem to care about packs odds, I think they are very important to consider especially when making those high end purchases

I've always felt Jordans's early Jersey cards are still undervalued when you consider the odds of pulling them and their significance in the hobby

Why a 97-98 Jambalaya sells for more than a 97-98 Game Jersey in ANY condition is beyond me

I always felt his 96-97 Finest Gold Refractor was an undervalued card as well as his 97-98 Gold Refractor

But the #1 Undervalued MJ if you consider pack odds is the 96-97 Fleer Ultra Platinum Medallion IMO

I also feel Z-Peats remain undervalued

I think the countefeiting in Asia hurt these 2 cards in particular, though they were both very difficult pulls back in the day

Outstanding list! As an 90s MJ guy this one's getting bookmarked for future reference.

Phenomenal info in this thread. At first glance I think I actually have 20 of these cards listed, a bulk of them coming from the 95-96 Collector's Choice Platinum Player's Club cards that were SO hard to get of an individual player (I have every PCP MJ).


Curious if you took into account the fact that multiple MJs were possible though, like in the PCP from 95-96 CC, or gold sigs from 94-95 CC. I don't know how many were in each series so I can't be that precise, but to give an exact example, there are two base MJs from 97-98 Bowman's Best (#60 and the BP subset #96). Those come one per box (1:24) and I believe there are 125 cards in the base set. That should be 1:3000 for each individual card, which would be 1:1500 to actually pull an MJ, one or the other, right? (I've broken like 10 boxes of this stuff so I know it well :)! )

You make a good point. I did it with a couple sets, but I'll try to update all those sets so anything with more than 1 Mj is noted. It took me all morning to do the list.........but it was really fun. [QUOTE=buckunteer;12708318]Phenomenal info in this thread. At first glance I think I actually have 20 of these cards listed, a bulk of them coming from the 95-96 Collector's Choice Platinum Player's Club cards that were SO hard to get of an individual player (I have every PCP MJ).


Curious if you took into account the fact that multiple MJs were possible though, like in the PCP from 95-96 CC, or gold sigs from 94-95 CC. I don't know how many were in each series so I can't be that precise, but to give an exact example, there are two base MJs from 97-98 Bowman's Best (#60 and the BP subset #96). Those come one per box (1:24) and I believe there are 125 cards in the base set. That should be 1:3000 for each individual card, which would be 1:1500 to actually pull an MJ, one or the other, right? (I've broken like 10 boxes of this stuff so I know it well :)! )[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=buckunteer;12708318]Phenomenal info in this thread. At first glance I think I actually have 20 of these cards listed, a bulk of them coming from the 95-96 Collector's Choice Platinum Player's Club cards that were SO hard to get of an individual player (I have every PCP MJ).


Curious if you took into account the fact that multiple MJs were possible though, like in the PCP from 95-96 CC, or gold sigs from 94-95 CC. I don't know how many were in each series so I can't be that precise, but to give an exact example, there are two base MJs from 97-98 Bowman's Best (#60 and the BP subset #96). Those come one per box (1:24) and I believe there are 125 cards in the base set. That should be 1:3000 for each individual card, which would be 1:1500 to actually pull an MJ, one or the other, right? (I've broken like 10 boxes of this stuff so I know it well :)! )[/QUOTE]

20? Wow. I felt pretty good owning 3. Haha.

Great thread. Thanks for this info

Great info. It might also be interesting to multiply these odds with pack SRP.

And I'm thought there was no Super Rave for 1997-98 Z-Force series 1.

If anyone can confirm no super rave........I'll take it off the list.
I have updated where Jordan has multiple cards in a set and put the odds of pulling "A" Jordan[QUOTE=Chain;12708558]Great info. It might also be interesting to multiply these odds with pack SRP.

And I'm thought there was no Super Rave for 1997-98 Z-Force series 1.[/QUOTE]

this is amazing!

Amazing when you think how staggering the odds are on some of these, with the super Raves being apparently the toughest to hit. Were the Hoops /5 cards listed in here from 98?

Couldn't find odds on quite a few sets. Especially serial numbered cards.
If anyone can show odds on sets missing from the list, let me know and I will add them......will need proof though (Old Beckett issue for example)[QUOTE=Jasondr91;12708692]Amazing when you think how staggering the odds are on some of these, with the super Raves being apparently the toughest to hit. Were the Hoops /5 cards listed in here from 98?[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Kenfancypants;12708673]If anyone can confirm no super rave........I'll take it off the list.[/QUOTE]

IF you check the information from Beckett here, it says it's a parallel for only series 2:
[url]https://www.beckett.com/basketball/1997-98/z-force-super-rave[/url]

I distinctly remember this because I was collecting Kobe at the time, and there was only a Super Rave Zupermen Kobe but no base version.

Yeah, I was gonna say, you don't need an old beckett, you can pull it all up on their site

If you notice in my original post I am averaging the Hobby and Retail. So for example if 1997/98 Bowman's Best atomic refractor is 1:24 Hobby and 1:40 retail, I am considering the overall odds being 1:32. Therefore, the Jordan is 1:4,000. Since there are 2 Jordan's in the set I have hitting "A" Jordan at 1:2,000 [QUOTE=buckunteer;12708318]Phenomenal info in this thread. At first glance I think I actually have 20 of these cards listed, a bulk of them coming from the 95-96 Collector's Choice Platinum Player's Club cards that were SO hard to get of an individual player (I have every PCP MJ).


Curious if you took into account the fact that multiple MJs were possible though, like in the PCP from 95-96 CC, or gold sigs from 94-95 CC. I don't know how many were in each series so I can't be that precise, but to give an exact example, there are two base MJs from 97-98 Bowman's Best (#60 and the BP subset #96). Those come one per box (1:24) and I believe there are 125 cards in the base set. That should be 1:3000 for each individual card, which would be 1:1500 to actually pull an MJ, one or the other, right? (I've broken like 10 boxes of this stuff so I know it well :)! )[/QUOTE]

great thread man, thanks a lot for posting :)!

however what you didn't consider imo is that it makes a big difference if we talk about EX or Hoops (price/cards per pack), I don't remember what EX packs have cost at this time but surely 3-5 times more than Hoops packs so, to take the example Dunk'n go Nuts vs Frequent Flyer Upgrade, the Frequent Flyer weren't 10 times harder to get (EX major brand/Hoops mass product) but maybe 2-3 times. Correct me pls if I'm wrong.

That DOES have to be taken into consideration. Unfortunately, without the print run we can't come up with numbers. Here are some things that do though:
1. Cards per pack DO NOT matter......those are 99% base cards and don't affect the odds of inserts/parallels in any real meaningful way (with rare cards)
2. The packs per box DO NOT matter. Some were 20 packs per box while others were 36 packs per box (and in between). The formula used is based on packs.........not boxes (or cases for that matter)
3. What does matter is the retail value.........and this IS a big X factor. So while collectors choice or hoops was $1-$1.50 per pack, Ex and Finest were $5+per pack (and more) THAT ADDS VALUE (I agree)
So the question is............How much? 10x.........5x ............3x? It's up to collectors to decide.
I do feel my post shed some important light on the sets and it has made an impact in my decisions in future sets to collect. Does it affect yours?All we need to do is look at the odds (and some of them are very.........long odds)to make a decision. Good Hunting, fellow collectors![QUOTE=charly41;12709559]great thread man, thanks a lot for posting :)!

however what you didn't consider imo is that it makes a big difference if we talk about EX or Hoops (price/cards per pack), I don't remember what EX packs have cost at this time but surely 3-5 times more than Hoops packs so, to take the example Dunk'n go Nuts vs Frequent Flyer Upgrade, the Frequent Flyer weren't 10 times harder to get (EX major brand/Hoops mass product) but maybe 2-3 times. Correct me pls if I'm wrong.[/QUOTE]

Call me a conspiracy theorists but living in Illinois Jordan was literally the only player I would pull inserts of growing up in the 90’s. I wouldn’t buy boxes either, just a few packs here and there. Planet Metal, Natural Born Thrillers, Skyview, Rock Stars Refractor, Holding Court Refractor, Star Power Supreme, Reign Man, etc. I even renember my friends pulling nothing but Jordan inserts too. Either they made more Jordan’s or sent the boxes with Jordan’s to the Midwest.

If you look at the list, the [B]rarest top 12[/B] (why not include the remainder 2?) non serial numbered inserts/parallels excluding patches/jersey/auto are:

#12 - 1996/97 Finest Gold Refractor 1:5,184
#11 - 1997/98 Skybox Golden Touch 1:5,400
#10 - 1997/98 Metal Championship Hardware 1:5,400
#9 - 1997/98 Ultra Ultrabilities Superstar 1:5,760
#8 - 1997/98 Ultra Star Power Supreme 1:5,760
#7 - 1997/98 Hoops Frequent Flyer Upgrade 1:7,200
#6 - 1997/98 Stadium Club Triumvirate Illuminator 1:9,216
#5 - 1997/98 E-X2001 Jambalaya 1:10,800
#4 - 1996/97 Z-Force Big Man On Court Z-Peat 1:11,200
#2/#3 - 1996/97 Ultra Platinum Medallion Series 1 1:27,000 Series 2 1:15,000

[B]#1 - 1997/98 Ultra Stars Gold 1:28,800[/B]

Any info on the 98 Fleer Electrifying? Don’t see it listed, but maybe I missed it somewhere.


Found it. Nevermind.

Add 96-97 Upper Deck ROTY Collection to this list next to the Smooth Grooves as well

The ROTY Collection is 1:138 packs x 14 in set: 1:1,932 odds per Annual Beckett

And bump to a great thread as well :)!

what about 98-99 Sp Authentic Gold autos. I believe those are 1:800+ with 4 cards in the set.

I say we keep this thread going

How about 3 rare cards from 1998 Fleer?

Electrifying
Playmakers Theatre
Classic/Vintage '61

Electrifying (odds 1:72, 10 cards set) so odds for MJ 1:720

there aren't stated odds for serial #d cards

Playmakers Theatre #d /100
Classic 61 #d /61

Vintage 61 - one per Hobby pack but who knows how many Hobby packs were produced or sold and even worse the Vintage 61 set consists of 147 cards so, worst case, you'd to buy at least 147 Hobby packs to get a Vintage 61 MJ.


[QUOTE=pacmon84;13067564]I say we keep this thread going

How about 3 rare cards from 1998 Fleer?

Electrifying
Playmakers Theatre
Classic/Vintage '61[/QUOTE]