2016 bowman pricing predictions

[houdini]

Originally Posted by bighunt172

thats about on average of what my friend has hit, other than the inserts on 1 case, any moncada?

He won't name names.

Originally Posted by JEA2880

I think it's unfair to assume everyone would naturally assume there were SP's given what's happened in the past - it's my own ignorance for being largely "out of the game" the past few years but I thought I did enough due diligence, especially considering I knew he already had an Auto so truthfully the thought never even crossed my mind. Apparently not.

Part of me feels misled because of the anticipated auto hits/ratios posted in the terms of the break. Terms state that on average there will be ~18.4 autos/player without any mention of any possible SP's. While I certainly understand that there are no guarantees, the ratio posted is NOT 18.4 Auto's when there are SP's and suggesting so is misleading. I looked in both the case details and sell sheet and didn't see any mention of SP's so didn't think this would be something I'd have to worry about. Had I known that there was a potential for something like this I probably would've sat the break out but instead it looks like I might be in for an expensive lesson.

It said ~18.4 by average.

900/49 = 18.367

Insert autos will skew that some.

I can't call SP if I have no way of knowing if they exist.

In the past, prospects have generally hit a bit above average and rookies a bit below overall. Maybe closer to 20 & 15? That is all speculation... just like this thread.

The break also says this:

Warning - If you pick an auto, you may get nothing. If that player has 20 autos, you get all 20; if that player gets 0 autos, you get 0. Same is true for all other spots.

To say you felt I mislead you is fine. Say that. Just be sure to quote that warning as well whenever you do.

Originally Posted by JEA2880

Yeah I hear you - I guess my point is I came strong on my bid and ended up overpaying the next highest bidder by a few hundred dollars because I was banking on at minimum getting the 18ish base Auto's, not because I wanted to gamble on a big boy.

My primary point is it's incorrect to use the wrapper odds and treat them as if there is a uniform print run of all auto prospect cards when it sounds like there clearly isn't/hasn't been in the past. There should at least be some sort of a disclaimer about the possibility of SP's since there will always be users with varying levels of experience/hobby expertise. Like I said, I thought I did my homework by reaffirming the numbers based on stated odds and referencing the sell sheet but now feel a bit blindsided. Not all have to agree, I'm just trying to articulate my logic in terms of why I bid what I bid and why I had different expectations.

I did not use wrapper odds. There were no wrapper odds until the day of.

I used math.

It said ~18.4 by average.