2016 bowman pricing predictions

[puck419]

Another Robles nice


Also no printing plates yet?

[bighunt172]

Originally Posted by puck419

Another Robles nice


Also no printing plates yet?

no printing plates yet auto wise at least

[Dbacksbaseball]

General consensus seems to be ok with the lack of the top tier hitting/being SP'd. Makes ripping it a little more nerve wracking IMO, especially if you can get the quick flip on the case.

[JEA2880]

Originally Posted by rob11nats

Hopefully you'll hit some nice color to make up for the lack/shortage of base.

But the average numbers posted were spot-on based on the wrapper odds. SPs are never announced.

Yeah I hear you - I guess my point is I came strong on my bid and ended up overpaying the next highest bidder by a few hundred dollars because I was banking on at minimum getting the 18ish base Auto's, not because I wanted to gamble on a big boy.

My primary point is it's incorrect to use the wrapper odds and treat them as if there is a uniform print run of all auto prospect cards when it sounds like there clearly isn't/hasn't been in the past. There should at least be some sort of a disclaimer about the possibility of SP's since there will always be users with varying levels of experience/hobby expertise. Like I said, I thought I did my homework by reaffirming the numbers based on stated odds and referencing the sell sheet but now feel a bit blindsided. Not all have to agree, I'm just trying to articulate my logic in terms of why I bid what I bid and why I had different expectations.

[zac949]

Originally Posted by JEA2880

I think it's unfair to assume everyone would naturally assume there were SP's given what's happened in the past - it's my own ignorance for being largely "out of the game" the past few years but I thought I did enough due diligence, especially considering I knew he already had an Auto so truthfully the thought never even crossed my mind. Apparently not.

Part of me feels misled because of the anticipated auto hits/ratios posted in the terms of the break. Terms state that on average there will be ~18.4 autos/player without any mention of any possible SP's. While I certainly understand that there are no guarantees, the ratio posted is NOT 18.4 Auto's when there are SP's and suggesting so is misleading. I looked in both the case details and sell sheet and didn't see any mention of SP's so didn't think this would be something I'd have to worry about. Had I known that there was a potential for something like this I probably would've sat the break out but instead it looks like I might be in for an expensive lesson.

The next highest bidder was $800. I bid $750 as that was the most I felt comfortable paying for that spot. If you want to minimize your risk then you should sell it to somebody that's willing to take it.

[zac949]

Originally Posted by JEA2880

Yeah I hear you - I guess my point is I came strong on my bid and ended up overpaying the next highest bidder by a few hundred dollars because I was banking on at minimum getting the 18ish base Auto's, not because I wanted to gamble on a big boy.

My primary point is it's incorrect to use the wrapper odds and treat them as if there is a uniform print run of all auto prospect cards when it sounds like there clearly isn't/hasn't been in the past. There should at least be some sort of a disclaimer about the possibility of SP's since there will always be users with varying levels of experience/hobby expertise. Like I said, I thought I did my homework by reaffirming the numbers based on stated odds and referencing the sell sheet but now feel a bit blindsided. Not all have to agree, I'm just trying to articulate my logic in terms of why I bid what I bid and why I had different expectations.

BTW this is in the rules of the OP for the 50 case break.

Warning - If you pick an auto, you may get nothing. If that player has 20 autos, you get all 20; if that player gets 0 autos, you get 0. Same is true for all other spots.

[puck419]

Originally Posted by JEA2880

Yeah I hear you - I guess my point is I came strong on my bid and ended up overpaying the next highest bidder by a few hundred dollars because I was banking on at minimum getting the 18ish base Auto's, not because I wanted to gamble on a big boy.

My primary point is it's incorrect to use the wrapper odds and treat them as if there is a uniform print run of all auto prospect cards when it sounds like there clearly isn't/hasn't been in the past. There should at least be some sort of a disclaimer about the possibility of SP's since there will always be users with varying levels of experience/hobby expertise. Like I said, I thought I did my homework by reaffirming the numbers based on stated odds and referencing the sell sheet but now feel a bit blindsided. Not all have to agree, I'm just trying to articulate my logic in terms of why I bid what I bid and why I had different expectations.

There is a disclaimer on the thread. States in big bold warning "if you pick an auto you may get nothing. If that player hits 20 autos, you get all 20; if that player hits 0 autos, you get 0. Same is true for all other spots.

Since it is a brand new release... Many don't know if certain autos are short printed or not. Especially based on very little cases being opened in that time frame

[puck419]

Looks like Zac beat me

[dasiegel]

bighunt your boy is taking up all the bregman!

[JEA2880]

Originally Posted by puck419

There is a disclaimer on the thread. States in big bold warning "if you pick an auto you may get nothing. If that player hits 20 autos, you get all 20; if that player hits 0 autos, you get 0. Same is true for all other spots.

Since it is a brand new release... Many don't know if certain autos are short printed or not. Especially based on very little cases being opened in that time frame

That disclaimer is different than saying something like "there is always the possibility that some Auto's are short printed and therefore will not fall at the same rate statistically as others in the set". Of course I know that it's theoretically POSSIBLE to hit 0 auto's even though statistically there was an implication that you would receive roughly 18.4 of each. But as someone who spent years in market research building statistical models who knows the importance of sample sizes, I knew that it would be virtually impossible for this to happen GIVEN THE PERCEIVED STATED ODDS OF PULLING EACH CARD WAS EQUAL. In other words, that disclaimer implies that sure there is always variability, but that's a completely different argument than treating the likelihood of hitting each card as the same.

I'm still going to pay and I'm not outraged or depressed, I'm more than anything saying that it's possible for someone to misinterpret what they think they are paying for - I'm the proof of that!

[rktoon]

Originally Posted by JEA2880

That disclaimer is different than saying something like "there is always the possibility that some Auto's are short printed and therefore will not fall at the same rate statistically as others in the set". Of course I know that it's theoretically POSSIBLE to hit 0 auto's even though statistically there was an implication that you would receive roughly 18.4 of each. But as someone who spent years in market research building statistical models who knows the importance of sample sizes, I knew that it would be virtually impossible for this to happen GIVEN THE PERCEIVED STATED ODDS OF PULLING EACH CARD WAS EQUAL. In other words, that disclaimer implies that sure there is always variability, but that's a completely different argument than treating the likelihood of hitting each card as the same.

I'm still going to pay and I'm not outraged or depressed, I'm more than anything saying that it's possible for someone to misinterpret what they think they are paying for - I'm the proof of that!

If topps doesn't list it as a disclaimer then how is Houdini responsible for listing it as a disclaimer?

[bighunt172]

case 7

Espinoza Gold auto
Daz Cameron Blue auto
ortiz printing plate auto
robles base

4 rookies schwarber best one (believe he said it was a redemption)

2 top 100 autos
no aflac still

2 gold ref

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by bighunt172

case 7

Espinoza Gold auto
Daz Cameron Blue auto
ortiz printing plate auto
robles base

4 rookies schwarber best one (believe he said it was a redemption)

2 top 100 autos
no aflac still

2 gold ref

You get any snap shots of the bigger hits yet? Want to see how some of the color pops. That was a major issue for me and some of the collectors of last years cards (as we all know they were just ugly)

[bighunt172]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

You get any snap shots of the bigger hits yet? Want to see how some of the color pops. That was a major issue for me and some of the collectors of last years cards (as we all know they were just ugly)

he assured me he would get me photos today

[JEA2880]

Originally Posted by rktoon

If topps doesn't list it as a disclaimer then how is Houdini responsible for listing it as a disclaimer?

I'm not even calling Houdini out! All I'm trying to do is explain my thinking in bidding the way I did because multiple people asked for an explanation, so I'm candidly giving one. I've already conceded that I was incorrect, and all I've done is suggest a way to avoid someone else being in my shoes in the future. I'm keeping it as productive as possible.

With that said, it's unfair that on the one hand people are saying I should have known better but then you're chiming in saying "how could Houdini have known better?" it can't be both ways and all I'm suggesting is that there's a better way of clarifying than the extreme example of pulling 0 or 20 auto's because each way can have a different meaning.

I don't think there's really anything else to add at this point.

[Cssll04]

Any word on insert autos like the recollection autos?

[rutgersjpm]

Until I see some photographs this break isn't happening. Sorry, but some of what you're posting doesn't line up with pack odds. If this is, in fact, real than whoever is ripping these should be paid by the rest of the people on here to open their cases. Not to mention the fact that they are nuts if they don't take a break right now and start listing on eBay IMMEDIATELY.

[bighunt172]

Originally Posted by rutgersjpm

Until I see some photographs this break isn't happening. Sorry, but some of what you're posting doesn't line up with pack odds. If this is, in fact, real than whoever is ripping these should be paid by the rest of the people on here to open their cases. Not to mention the fact that they are nuts if they don't take a break right now and start listing on eBay IMMEDIATELY.

ok so now im a liar? why would i waste my time posting this? i have already said he is going to send pictures(it was my idea) no big deal i wont say anymore about his hits.

[zac949]

Originally Posted by rutgersjpm

Until I see some photographs this break isn't happening. Sorry, but some of what you're posting doesn't line up with pack odds. If this is, in fact, real than whoever is ripping these should be paid by the rest of the people on here to open their cases. Not to mention the fact that they are nuts if they don't take a break right now and start listing on eBay IMMEDIATELY.

Why would this guy go out of his way to post nonsense? You think he's trying to boost sales?

[festus]

Originally Posted by rutgersjpm

Until I see some photographs this break isn't happening. Sorry, but some of what you're posting doesn't line up with pack odds. If this is, in fact, real than whoever is ripping these should be paid by the rest of the people on here to open their cases. Not to mention the fact that they are nuts if they don't take a break right now and start listing on eBay IMMEDIATELY.

He's making this break up as he's looking for a sucker to sell his cases to..

[festus]

Originally Posted by bighunt172

ok so now im a liar? why would i waste my time posting this? i have already said he is going to send pictures(it was my idea) no big deal i wont say anymore about his hits.

He's just yanking your chain. I am anyways..

[bighunt172]

Originally Posted by festus

He's making this break up as he's looking for a sucker to sell his cases to..

lol amazing, im NOT selling my cases i very rarely sell anything i plan on keeping 99 percent of what i get, with the exception being Maeda.

[brentandbecca]

Originally Posted by rutgersjpm

Until I see some photographs this break isn't happening. Sorry, but some of what you're posting doesn't line up with pack odds. If this is, in fact, real than whoever is ripping these should be paid by the rest of the people on here to open their cases. Not to mention the fact that they are nuts if they don't take a break right now and start listing on eBay IMMEDIATELY.

it's a small sample, I am sure it's real

also, many folks don't list on ebay early for many reasons
1) he is busy ripping
2) his distributor may have asked him not to until T/W or others do
3) he has other things going on or whatever; he may even want to keep much of it or grade it

the guy I heard about busting 10 cases does not plan to list anything until Tuesday

[bighunt172]

Originally Posted by festus

He's just yanking your chain. I am anyways..

i know you are making it up i can tell my the faces on the end

[Jaypers]

Originally Posted by rutgersjpm

Not to mention the fact that they are nuts if they don't take a break right now and start listing on eBay IMMEDIATELY.

Maybe because he's fearful of possible reprisals by Topps for listing a full 48 hours prior to the street date?