Don't name your kid Bryce just yet...

[Skipscards]

I've been watching MLB's series of the 'Top 10 Right Now' mostly because it's a great chance to hear Bill James opine on some of the selections. Last night, I watched the RF show and James indicated he is over Bryce Harper. He said, (paraphrasing) "he needs to stay on the field and show me something. I don't even have him in my Top 10."

Of course, there were other interesting points made like, among all players in history Harper has produced more wRC than all but 4 or 5 players at the same age. Of course Trout is one of them.

They also pointed out that Harper has yet to face a pitcher younger than him.

[jmscoggin]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

I've been watching MLB's series of the 'Top 10 Right Now' mostly because it's a great chance to hear Bill James opine on some of the selections. Last night, I watched the RF show and James indicated he is over Bryce Harper. He said, (paraphrasing) "he needs to stay on the field and show me something. I don't even have him in my Top 10."

Of course, there were other interesting points made like, among all players in history Harper has produced more wRC than all but 4 or 5 players at the same age. Of course Trout is one of them.

They also pointed out that Harper has yet to face a pitcher younger than him.

How did James get anointed? All of these talking heads drive me nuts. Will Bryce live up to his impossible hype? Who knows but what he has already accomplished at his age is historic. If it wasn't for Trout, he wouldn't be taking nearly the beating. I think he'll be just fine. Is he a HOF'er? No idea but I'd take him on my team in a split second and you know damn well that if James was a GM, he would too.

[Bhenry4]

Bill James likes pancakes.

[Braswell10]

Originally Posted by jmscoggin

How did James get anointed? All of these talking heads drive me nuts. Will Bryce live up to his impossible hype? Who knows but what he has already accomplished at his age is historic. If it wasn't for Trout, he wouldn't be taking nearly the beating. I think he'll be just fine. Is he a HOF'er? No idea but I'd take him on my team in a split second and you know damn well that if James was a GM, he would too.

I agree with this.

[TarjetasBéisbol]

It's been a while since we have had a good Bryce thread on the boards but it is the off-season. I wonder if we can finally move on from all the Patriots threads?

[jmscoggin]

Originally Posted by TarjetasBéisbol

It's been a while since we have had a good Bryce thread on the boards but it is the off-season. I wonder if we can finally move on from all the Patriots threads?

Who are these "Patriots"? Do they play in the NL? I mostly follow the AL. Are they an athlete?

[mikecala98]

Bill James is a lot fatter than I thought.

I would not name my child Bryce because I do not want my child to get beat up in school.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by jmscoggin

How did James get anointed? All of these talking heads drive me nuts. Will Bryce live up to his impossible hype? Who knows but what he has already accomplished at his age is historic. If it wasn't for Trout, he wouldn't be taking nearly the beating. I think he'll be just fine. Is he a HOF'er? No idea but I'd take him on my team in a split second and you know damn well that if James was a GM, he would too.

To be fair, the MLB 'Shredder' ranked Harper 3rd or 4th.

[preakness]

Originally Posted by Bhenry4

Bill James likes pancakes.

I agree with this

[JMPKCP]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

To be fair, the MLB 'Shredder' ranked Harper 3rd or 4th.

I LIKE BRYCE!!!!

[lobo_hacker]

Originally Posted by jmscoggin

How did James get anointed? All of these talking heads drive me nuts. Will Bryce live up to his impossible hype? Who knows but what he has already accomplished at his age is historic. If it wasn't for Trout, he wouldn't be taking nearly the beating. I think he'll be just fine. Is he a HOF'er? No idea but I'd take him on my team in a split second and you know damn well that if James was a GM, he would too.

-Just curious, have you read much of his work? Aside from the author/huistorian/statistician bit, he also has worked extensively with the Red Sox since 2003. The very next year after the hire, they win the World Series and begin a run of mostly-successful seasons.

Bill James won them the World Series, is what i'm saying.

Hyperbole aside, he's one of the Founding Fathers of the way baseball teams evaluate talent and fans debate worth on the field. Folks disagree with him, sure, but the guy's got the chops for player evaluation and the history to support it. Not right all the time, but i'd take Bill James talking about baseball all day long over someone like Harold Reynolds or the vast majority of people on ESPN nowadays.

Directly related to the subject of the thread, i think he's too dismissive of Harper.

lobo_hacker

[PaulOneillRules]

So if Harper didn't run into that wall in 2013 and that ball goes an extra foot for a grand slam instead of a 2 month beginning injury triple sliding into 3rd last year, let's give him 20 more Jacks for his career. That would put him at 75 before he turned 22. Yes, he's been hurt, but I don't know many players who have accomplished what he has at 21 years old. Surprised at Bill James analysis.
Here's my 2015 for Bryce: .284 avg, 101 Rbi, 34 HRs.
You're wrong on this one Bill James.

[jmscoggin]

Originally Posted by lobo_hacker

-Just curious, have you read much of his work? Aside from the author/huistorian/statistician bit, he also has worked extensively with the Red Sox since 2003. The very next year after the hire, they win the World Series and begin a run of mostly-successful seasons.

Bill James won them the World Series, is what i'm saying.

Hyperbole aside, he's one of the Founding Fathers of the way baseball teams evaluate talent and fans debate worth on the field. Folks disagree with him, sure, but the guy's got the chops for player evaluation and the history to support it. Not right all the time, but i'd take Bill James talking about baseball all day long over someone like Harold Reynolds or the vast majority of people on ESPN nowadays.

Directly related to the subject of the thread, i think he's too dismissive of Harper.

lobo_hacker

I am familiar with his work and have no disagreement with any of your thoughts on him. I am however tired of the analysts need to say something inflammatory in the interest in generating clicks/views/watchers/comments. I realize that is the world we now live in but I still don't like it.

I also see that you came to the same conclusion that I did, you just chose to clarify James before doing so. It is the rare case of someone using more words than I to say the exact same thing. I am usually guilty of said wordiness but in this instance I chose to be brief.

[lobo_hacker]

Originally Posted by jmscoggin

...

I also see that you came to the same conclusion that I did, you just chose to clarify James before doing so. It is the rare case of someone using more words than I to say the exact same thing...

-Waiting on my mom and sister to get into town so we can go furniture shopping and, for some reason, i've been inclined to post longer responses on here over the last few days. That said, i'm still not sure why i gave a condensed wiki entry on James above.

Maybe i need to cut down on the caffeine.

lobo_hacker

[lobo_hacker]

double post, sorry

[jmscoggin]

Originally Posted by lobo_hacker

-Waiting on my mom and sister to get into town so we can go furniture shopping and, for some reason, i've been inclined to post longer responses on here over the last few days. That said, i'm still not sure why i gave a condensed wiki entry on James above.

Maybe i need to cut down on the caffeine.

lobo_hacker

Lol, but I do get where you were going. I was a bit dismissive of James in my original post and you chose to clarify, correctly I might add, that his credentials are indeed above and beyond the typical hack. This did not nullify my post in any way which is obvious as your conclusion was the same as mine but it did bear mentioning.

James is a smart guy, much smarter than I but he is wrong here and I would venture to guess it had more to do with getting attention than what he truly believes. Yes, Harper needs to play 150+ games and needs to corral his emotions but you can't deny that he has already laid one hell of a foundation and is one of the biggest talents in the game at the present time.

[SaveMeTheGum]

James' strength is being able to tell who IS good, not who is going to be good. No one can predict the future.

[kyle1707]

with missing over 100 games...

He has played almost exactly 2 years of games..

Avg 25 home runs and 72 rbis... or some where close to that

at 19 20 21

We are all numb because of all the hype and talk over last 5 years..

But that is pretty incredible

2 time all star and rc of the year...

But yes off course he needs to play 150 games... Both bad luck injuries.... imo

[awz50]

Bryce will be a .280 20-25 HR guy. He will only play 130 games a year.

See its easy to "predict" lets just watch the kid play.

[jmscoggin]

Originally Posted by awz50

Bryce will be a .280 20-25 HR guy. He will only play 130 games a year.

See its easy to "predict" lets just watch the kid play.

Funny how people were saying many of the same things about Giancarlo but if it wasn't for Fiers using Stanton's face as a catcher's mask, we'd probably be calling Stanton an MVP.

I agree in theory with what you said about watching but this is a sports message board after all. The debate and prognostication is what most of us are here for. If we decide to just shut up and "watch", why would we need BO?

[awz50]

Originally Posted by jmscoggin

Funny how people were saying many of the same things about Giancarlo but if it wasn't for Fiers using Stanton's face as a catcher's mask, we'd probably be calling Stanton an MVP.

I agree in theory with what you said about watching but this is a sports message board after all. The debate and prognostication is what most of us are here for. If we decide to just shut up and "watch", why would we need BO?

We can still debate Im all for that, but lets also just watch him play more then saying what he will be.

[jmscoggin]

Originally Posted by awz50

We can still debate Im all for that, but lets also just watch him play more then saying what he will be.

Unacceptable, you must fall on either sucks or awesome side. Talk crap, who cares how he plays? Don't you know how BO works?

[PaulOneillRules]

Originally Posted by jmscoggin

Unacceptable, you must fall on either sucks or awesome side. Talk crap, who cares how he plays? Don't you know how BO works?

Like it! I choose AWESOME!

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by lobo_hacker

-Just curious, have you read much of his work? Aside from the author/huistorian/statistician bit, he also has worked extensively with the Red Sox since 2003. The very next year after the hire, they win the World Series and begin a run of mostly-successful seasons.

Bill James won them the World Series, is what i'm saying.

Hyperbole aside, he's one of the Founding Fathers of the way baseball teams evaluate talent and fans debate worth on the field. Folks disagree with him, sure, but the guy's got the chops for player evaluation and the history to support it. Not right all the time, but i'd take Bill James talking about baseball all day long over someone like Harold Reynolds or the vast majority of people on ESPN nowadays.

Directly related to the subject of the thread, i think he's too dismissive of Harper.

lobo_hacker

Geesh lobo, another brilliant post. I couldn't have said it better myself.

Originally Posted by jmscoggin

Lol, but I do get where you were going. I was a bit dismissive of James in my original post and you chose to clarify, correctly I might add, that his credentials are indeed above and beyond the typical hack. This did not nullify my post in any way which is obvious as your conclusion was the same as mine but it did bear mentioning.

James is a smart guy, much smarter than I but he is wrong here and I would venture to guess it had more to do with getting attention than what he truly believes. Yes, Harper needs to play 150+ games and needs to corral his emotions but you can't deny that he has already laid one hell of a foundation and is one of the biggest talents in the game at the present time.

If it were anyone but James, I'd agree that they were trying to be provacative. But James isn't flashy. He always been very matter of fact and rarely cares about ratings or attention.

Most of his work was predicated on the assumption that many comments made by 'traditional' baseball announcers and pundits weren't necessarily correct but just taken for granted. ("Protection" in a lineup, the lineuo order, yhe value of pitcher Wins, old players continuing to play important defensive positions becuase they had moxie and experience, team chemistry, closers saving a game, etc)

I think in this case he must genuinely believe Harper isn't one of the 10 best RF in the game. The others at the table were a little surprised, but James' demeanor was pretty mundane. Personally, I found it fascinating.

Originally Posted by SaveMeTheGum

James' strength is being able to tell who IS good, not who is going to be good. No one can predict the future.

James can. He was the first to develop pretty accurate translations/predictors of minor league to major league baseball. He's also said repeatedly hitters are much easier to predict than pitchers. He also is the one who proved/demonstrated the peak ages and the decline phase of a players career.

All this being said, I think James is mostly counting on Harper's inability to remain in the lineup.

[MetDude]

Originally Posted by jmscoggin

Who are these "Patriots"? Do they play in the NL? I mostly follow the AL. Are they an athlete?

Apologies if this comes off as taking the air out of your sails
but the answer to your question is "Nay"