Odds of hitting a Kyrie in Select?

zebrastar · 03-01-2013, 03:28 PM

Just looked through the sell sheet again.

There are 175 different rookie autographs.

With 4 autographs per box, and likely 1 of the 4 being a vet, that leaves you with approximately 36 rookie autos per case.

Add to that, Panini likes to restrict it's A list rookies... I would say the odds of even hitting one Kyrie Auto in this product will be about 1 in 5 cases.

I would assume they will extend their limitations of A list rookies out a bit. So a case rookie hit may be a Kemba Walker or a Kawhi Leonard.

Then again, with their piss poor collation this year... we could very well see 2+ autos of kyrie coming from the same case.

Thoughts?

blackbears86 · 03-01-2013, 03:52 PM

the odds you posted sound about right, but I'm sure there are some breakers on here who can give you the real odds....

MSD · 03-01-2013, 03:57 PM

It's a 100 rookie based autograph checklist and then a 75 rookie jersey auto checklist and players overlap both sets. 1 in 5 cases isn't too off though.

zebrastar · 03-01-2013, 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MSD

It's a 100 rookie based autograph checklist and then a 75 rookie jersey auto checklist and players overlap both sets. 1 in 5 cases isn't too off though.

ahhh.... OK that makes sense... 175 rookies seemed like a loooooooong stretch!

bmuelle21 · 03-01-2013, 04:43 PM

I would say 1-2 in 4 cases is probably right. In the products i break its been anywhere from 1 per case (prestige) to 1 in 4 cases (elite)

My Kyrie Auto Breakdown per product broke.

3 - Prestige (3 Cases)
2 - Threads (3 Cases)
2 - Prizm (4 Cases)
1 - Elite (4 Cases)

Kingbudd · 03-01-2013, 05:01 PM

And this makes me NOT want to break a box of Panini products ever again. 1 in 5 case chance of hitting someone that is worth collecting; no thank you.

zebrastar · 03-01-2013, 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kingbudd

And this makes me NOT want to break a box of Panini products ever again. 1 in 5 case chance of hitting someone that is worth collecting; no thank you.

Well, we all have different reasons for collecting. I have just as much fun getting a Vlade Divac auto as I do a Kyrie... I pull a Divac auto and I'm excited that I got a card that will be in my collection forever, and I was the one who pulled it! and if I pull a Kyrie, I'm stoked I "made money":

bmuelle21 · 03-01-2013, 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kingbudd

And this makes me NOT want to break a box of Panini products ever again. 1 in 5 case chance of hitting someone that is worth collecting; no thank you.

It most likely won't be that high in Select but I get what your saying. I'm hoping Kyrie autos fall a little better in Select then they did in Elite.

crazymj · 03-01-2013, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zebrastar

Just looked through the sell sheet again.

There are 175 different rookie autographs.

With 4 autographs per box, and likely 1 of the 4 being a vet, that leaves you with approximately 36 rookie autos per case.

Add to that, Panini likes to restrict it's A list rookies... I would say the odds of even hitting one Kyrie Auto in this product will be about 1 in 5 cases.

I would assume they will extend their limitations of A list rookies out a bit. So a case rookie hit may be a Kemba Walker or a Kawhi Leonard.

Then again, with their piss poor collation this year... we could very well see 2+ autos of kyrie coming from the same case.

Thoughts?

No they will not have kawhi or kemba as a case hit auto in a $1600 case.
I think it will be similar to prizm case, where each case should have a kyrie, davis, durant, or kobe auto.

bmuelle21 · 03-01-2013, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crazymj

No they will not have kawhi or kemba as a case hit auto in a $1600 case.
I think it will be similar to prizm case, where each case should have a kyrie, davis, durant, or kobe auto.

+1 I'm thinking the same thing.

jameshues · 03-01-2013, 05:45 PM

I bet they're going to have plenty of other auto sets that aren't true RCs with Kyrie autos in them. My guess is Kyries about 1 in 3 cases

Kingbudd · 03-01-2013, 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zebrastar

Well, we all have different reasons for collecting. I have just as much fun getting a Vlade Divac auto as I do a Kyrie... I pull a Divac auto and I'm excited that I got a card that will be in my collection forever, and I was the one who pulled it! and if I pull a Kyrie, I'm stoked I "made money":

I didn't say anything about making money. I AM NOT A FLIPPER. I just don't agree with flooding the market and cases with D League players; it doesn't make sense for me to purchase even a box (And I love to bust wax) when the odds of pulling someone that I actually PC are 1 in 60... Just saying, with odds like this even though I like to bust wax, I am better off purchasing the card from a flipper for 3x the price of a box.

crazymj · 03-01-2013, 07:21 PM

Select has pretty much double the hits/inserts of prizm.

4 autos, 4 prizm, 6 inserts, versus the 2 auto, 2 prizm, 2 insert from prizm.

And i like how the gold prizm is #/25 (makes it more affordable and easier to get one of your favorite player). And now finally the prizm black 1/1. Those should be big chases.

zebrastar · 03-01-2013, 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crazymj

No they will not have kawhi or kemba as a case hit auto in a $1600 case.
I think it will be similar to prizm case, where each case should have a kyrie, davis, durant, or kobe auto.

I meant that Kawhi or Kemba may be your top ROOKIE auto, where as most panini cases end up with an AD or Kyrie + a Kobe or Durant, I think select may very easily be a Kemba + Durant.

bmuelle21 · 03-01-2013, 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zebrastar

I meant that Kawhi or Kemba may be your top ROOKIE auto, where as most panini cases end up with an AD or Kyrie + a Kobe or Durant, I think select may very easily be a Kemba + Durant.

ah, I gotcha now. Yes, you are correct. I have had a few cases where it was Kemba, or MKG + Durant or Kobe. Unfortunately, for me at least, Panini is starting to put Blake Griffin with Durant and Kobe it seems.

dasiegel · 03-01-2013, 11:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jameshues

I bet they're going to have plenty of other auto sets that aren't true RCs with Kyrie autos in them. My guess is Kyries about 1 in 3 cases

ur avatar disturbs me and so do his cards

03-01-2013, 03:28 PM	#1
zebrastar Member Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,286 Zebrastar	Odds of hitting a Kyrie in Select? Just looked through the sell sheet again. There are 175 different rookie autographs. With 4 autographs per box, and likely 1 of the 4 being a vet, that leaves you with approximately 36 rookie autos per case. Add to that, Panini likes to restrict it's A list rookies... I would say the odds of even hitting one Kyrie Auto in this product will be about 1 in 5 cases. I would assume they will extend their limitations of A list rookies out a bit. So a case rookie hit may be a Kemba Walker or a Kawhi Leonard. Then again, with their piss poor collation this year... we could very well see 2+ autos of kyrie coming from the same case. Thoughts?

03-01-2013, 04:43 PM	#5
bmuelle21 Member Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: Cedar Rapids, IA Posts: 363 planetiowa	I would say 1-2 in 4 cases is probably right. In the products i break its been anywhere from 1 per case (prestige) to 1 in 4 cases (elite) My Kyrie Auto Breakdown per product broke. 3 - Prestige (3 Cases) 2 - Threads (3 Cases) 2 - Prizm (4 Cases) 1 - Elite (4 Cases) Last edited by bmuelle21; 03-01-2013 at 04:46 PM.

03-01-2013, 05:45 PM	#11
jameshues Member Join Date: May 2011 Location: Phoenix, AZ Posts: 1,584	I bet they're going to have plenty of other auto sets that aren't true RCs with Kyrie autos in them. My guess is Kyries about 1 in 3 cases __________________ Looking for all CHRIS PAUL patches and autos! My photobucket: http://www.photobucket.com/jameshues

03-01-2013, 07:21 PM	#13
crazymj Member Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 14,011	Select has pretty much double the hits/inserts of prizm. 4 autos, 4 prizm, 6 inserts, versus the 2 auto, 2 prizm, 2 insert from prizm. And i like how the gold prizm is #/25 (makes it more affordable and easier to get one of your favorite player). And now finally the prizm black 1/1. Those should be big chases. __________________ IG: crazymj24 eBay :crazymj24

03-01-2013, 03:52 PM	#2
blackbears86 Member Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: maine Posts: 17,190 blackbears86	the odds you posted sound about right, but I'm sure there are some breakers on here who can give you the real odds....

03-01-2013, 03:57 PM	#3
MSD Member Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: CA Posts: 934	It's a 100 rookie based autograph checklist and then a 75 rookie jersey auto checklist and players overlap both sets. 1 in 5 cases isn't too off though.

03-01-2013, 05:01 PM	#6
Kingbudd Member Join Date: May 2012 Location: Honolulu, HI Posts: 1,332	And this makes me NOT want to break a box of Panini products ever again. 1 in 5 case chance of hitting someone that is worth collecting; no thank you.