First Buzz: 2024-25 Panini Flawless basketball cards

[BlowoutBuzz]

First Buzz: 2024-25 Panini Flawless basketball cards >> BlowoutBuzz.com

[sethc1020]

All game used?? Ok trying to go out with a bang!

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by sethc1020

All game used?? Ok trying to go out with a bang!

Flawless is typically all game used

[sethc1020]

Originally Posted by Chris P

Flawless is typically all game used

Not from what Ive seen the last 4-5 years. I do mostly football, maybe basketball is different.

I guess you're right, looks like basketball has still been mostly all game used.

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by sethc1020

Not from what Ive seen the last 4-5 years. I do mostly football, maybe basketball is different.

I guess you're right, looks like basketball has still been mostly all game used.

Yeah Basketball is all game used, even rookies

[Bob Ross]

Release this set in the Panini NFT platform and then we'll talk.

[Tonic3]

So at what stupidly high price will this FOTL sell out today? Giving us an extra 3 jersey cards will I'm sure help people justify paying an extra $5-6k.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by Tonic3

So at what stupidly high price will this FOTL sell out today? Giving us an extra 3 jersey cards will I'm sure help people justify paying an extra $5-6k.

No price is too high. I locked in at $30k per box. I will buy at every level now to get my average cost down to around $25k per box. Guaranteed way to make millions.

[Tonic3]

Yaaaaa, okay. Sold out at $20k it appears. The “hobby” continues to dumbfound me sometimes

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Tonic3

Yaaaaa, okay. Sold out at $20k it appears. The “hobby” continues to dumbfound me sometimes

It's the Rookie Royalty effect still in action. Buy at any price. You can't lose. I doubt a single box of this was bought to be opened by a non breaker. What are the chances of you coming out ahead on the difference you are paying for the FOTL cards? 1-2%?

To put this into perspective, there are actually people listing 2024-25 Immaculate FOTL for double the last sale of 23-24 Immaculate FOTL case sale.

I don't think anyone on earth 4 months ago would have predicted that in the dead basketball offseason you'd have these products selling out at anywhere remotely close to these prices.

[Asian62150]

Remember when these threads used to be 10 pages long on drop day? Now they're 10 posts long.

[Tonic3]

Watched the Packman break of a box and can't even fathom how nauseous I'd feel if I spent over $20k and pulled those cards. Unreal

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by Tonic3

Watched the Packman break of a box and can't even fathom how nauseous I'd feel if I spent over $20k and pulled those cards. Unreal

And once again him fawning over cards like the Billups auto or IT auto is just typical pathetic used car salesman tactics to get his sheep to buy into his breaks. And every product he reviews is the most "craziest set ever produced"

[Inferno]

Packman and these guys have backed themselves into a corner with these high end breaks. Gotta have the shocked faces and bigger and bigger dollar amounts in that thumbnail to keep the clicks coming.

It may have been fun back when these products were somewhat affordable but now their audience expects them to keep doing these overpriced breaks even though they get aggressively rinsed every time. I don’t mind Packman but seeing him beg for pulls is painful. The grind needed to sustain channels like this must be sucking all the fun out of it.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by Tonic3

Watched the Packman break of a box and can't even fathom how nauseous I'd feel if I spent over $20k and pulled those cards. Unreal

I don't know what was more painful, the break or the comments on the video.

The craziest part to me is that he posts in the video description that briefcases are going for 30K. Ouch.

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by Inferno

Packman and these guys have backed themselves into a corner with these high end breaks. Gotta have the shocked faces and bigger and bigger dollar amounts in that thumbnail to keep the clicks coming.

It may have been fun back when these products were somewhat affordable but now their audience expects them to keep doing these overpriced breaks even though they get aggressively rinsed every time. I don’t mind Packman but seeing him beg for pulls is painful. The grind needed to sustain channels like this must be sucking all the fun out of it.

Packman has adopted the Mark Rober business model. Rober’s main YouTube channel is just the advertising front for CrunchLabs which generates his actual revenue. Packman’s channel is the advertising front for his breaks, which are timed to run literally minutes after his YouTube videos. People go from watching them to Whatnot to enter the breaks or try to win the giveaways from the video they just watched. Sponsorships cover his inventory for youtube and he makes money off ad revenue and the breaks. Don’t think it’s a grind for him at all tbh.

[PooleParty]

A little nugget from the checklist...

There is a 2023 update triple logoman of Tim Duncan/David Robinson/Wemby in this year's Flawless. Yes, Wemby's rookie year.

The 2023 Triple Logoman checklist started at #2, and this card is #1.

Wemby had 6 logomans in last year's flawless, Duncan had 1, Robinson had none. They must have been short a game-used logoman from one of them and had to pull the card from the checklist.

The checklist for this year didn't drop until yesterday but imagine how much higher fotl would have been if it was known that Wemby had a rookie logoman in the product.

[Tonic3]

Originally Posted by PooleParty

A little nugget from the checklist...

There is a 2023 update triple logoman of Tim Duncan/David Robinson/Wemby in this year's Flawless. Yes, Wemby's rookie year.

The 2023 Triple Logoman checklist started at #2, and this card is #1.

Wemby had 6 logomans in last year's flawless, Duncan had 1, Robinson had none. They must have been short a game-used logoman from one of them and had to pull the card from the checklist.

The checklist for this year didn't drop until yesterday but imagine how much higher fotl would have been if it was known that Wemby had a rookie logoman in the product.

One card in a product does not justify $20K+ for a box of cards, let alone an even higher price. These box prices seem to have somehow built in an assumption that someone has a good chance of pulling a card worth 20K or more....which we all know rarely happens. The risk/reward balance is way too far off at this point. When your losing 10-15K in 49 out of 50 boxes it doesn't justify the one box where you get a 150K card. Let's do some simple math.

50 boxes x 20K = 1 million
49 boxes x -15K = - 735K
1 box x +225k = = +225K

Total profit= -510K

And that's assuming you get 5K in cards back in every box on average....which is being very very generous

[FatButcher]

Originally Posted by Tonic3

One card in a product does not justify $20K+ for a box of cards, let alone an even higher price. These box prices seem to have somehow built in an assumption that someone has a good chance of pulling a card worth 20K or more....which we all know rarely happens. The risk/reward balance is way too far off at this point. When your losing 10-15K in 49 out of 50 boxes it doesn't justify the one box where you get a 150K card. Let's do some simple math.

50 boxes x 20K = 1 million
49 boxes x -15K = - 735K
1 box x +225k = = +225K

Total profit= -510K

And that's assuming you get 5K in cards back in every box on average....which is being very very generous

This is essentially all wax, just extrapolated with larger numbers. Reason has left the building, and in that world the revelation of the Wemby RC likely would have (stupidly) driven the price up a bit.

[kobemagee29]

Originally Posted by Tonic3

Watched the Packman break of a box and can't even fathom how nauseous I'd feel if I spent over $20k and pulled those cards. Unreal

All of these breakers are full of it. Not way they are even paying 10k for a case of flawless

[mossoholic]

You think Flawless is bad? Eminence is $40k per box on Panini's website! There are 3 maybe 4 cards in the entire product that would cover a box. 2 Lebron logoman, a Curry logoman auto, and maybe a Curry Klay dual logoman. Maybe scanning the checklist I could have missed something but regardless I can't imagine you can even come out ahead on 2% of boxes. Not a single card worth even $250k let alone $1 million.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

You think Flawless is bad? Eminence is $40k per box on Panini's website! There are 3 maybe 4 cards in the entire product that would cover a box. 2 Lebron logoman, a Curry logoman auto, and maybe a Curry Klay dual logoman. Maybe scanning the checklist I could have missed something but regardless I can't imagine you can even come out ahead on 2% of boxes. Not a single card worth even $250k let alone $1 million.

That isn't how this market works. There are 30 NBA teams. If a breaker does a 30 team random $40k is $1,333 a spot plus whatever fees and profits they need to add in. So the lottery isn't $40k for a $100,000 card. The lottery is $2k for a $500-$150,000 card. Breaker clears $10k for 10 minutes of work. It would sell out fast. That is how this market works. These will sell out instantly today when they go up.

[kobemagee29]

Originally Posted by premium1981

That isn't how this market works. There are 30 NBA teams. If a breaker does a 30 team random $40k is $1,333 a spot plus whatever fees and profits they need to add in. So the lottery isn't $40k for a $100,000 card. The lottery is $2k for a $500-$150,000 card. Breaker clears $10k for 10 minutes of work. It would sell out fast. That is how this market works. These will sell out instantly today when they go up.

Breakers are clearing way more. Same with immaculate & nt & flawless. Mark up is well above 50%. Panini is selling Eminence at 40k on the app, but the direct price is well under 10k, just like flawless, nt & immaculate

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

Remember when these threads used to be 10 pages long on drop day? Now they're 10 posts long.

Those were the times!

I remember getting two 2017-18 FOTL boxes for $3k (somehow, the system glitched in my favor because it was a 1 per order limit).

Immediately sold one for $2750 and intended to keep the other long-term. Ended up moving it for less than the first, big mistake haha.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by kobemagee29

Breakers are clearing way more.

Oh absolutely, I completely 100% agree. I was just using the highest retail price as an example of how easily it gets moved in todays market. Although, yes it is overpriced, it really isn't. Its overpriced in the sense of what the value inside the average box is. But its not overpriced if the market has demand at these prices, which is obviously does.