We are not in another junk wax era...

[JWBlue]

Seen the statement a lot of places that we are.

Back in the day, we were not chasing multiple cards worth thousands of dollars. That is not even factoring in grading which did not exist.

Even though the production might be increasing to the same level, not the same.

[hermanotarjeta]

We are in a bloated lotto, or “blotto” wax era.

[boxbuster7]

MORE THREADS

[sickmantz]

I don't get why you care enough to start a(nother) thread.

[mfw13]

We are in a:

- junk parallel era
- junk auto era
- junk relic era

Basically, 90% of the so-called "hits" that are supposed to provide the value to justify high wax prices are actually junk.

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by mfw13

We are in a:

- junk parallel era
- junk auto era
- junk relic era

Basically, 90% of the so-called "hits" that are supposed to provide the value to justify high wax prices are actually junk.

90% might be a little low.

[Cardsareus84]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

90% might be a little low.

Not necessarily. The exposure is what the likes of Topps, etc, are banking on. Lotto, gambling, whatever… it is all part of the process. It’s been that way for years but the times and technology have changed significantly faster than many can keep up with.

It doesn’t necessarily have to be one or the other. There’s people buying sports cards hoping to get a lotto ticket.. There’s the “I buy singles only” crowd FOMing on eBay bids while literally creating a false market.. Then the set collectors, whom are a dying breed and that’s a shame. Lastly you have your rippers, whether they rip for the lotto, collecting their team, building sets, or just want to know the cards they have are out of the very pack they opened. It’s a lot more meaningful/romantic to pulling your own cards.

In any event; the exposure is there.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

90% might be a little low.

Originally Posted by mfw13

We are in a:

- junk parallel era
- junk auto era
- junk relic era

Basically, 90% of the so-called "hits" that are supposed to provide the value to justify high wax prices are actually junk.

As the ol' saying goes; 90% of everything is crap. Why should hits be any different?

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by mfw13

We are in a:

- junk parallel era
- junk auto era
- junk relic era

Basically, 90% of the so-called "hits" that are supposed to provide the value to justify high wax prices are actually junk.

Junk hit era -- manufactured scarce cards with little uniqueness or value being used as consolation prizes to the majority who don't hit a product chase card.

Tacky-looking refractor parallels, relief pitcher autographs, and relics "not from any specific game or event."

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

and relics "not from any specific game or event."

And sometimes not even related to the player on the front of the card. Amazes me they can get away with it.

[PuddleMonkey]

[ThoseBackPages]

#ThanksTopps

[nabzy28]

It's bad. The sheer amount of random color/refractor/prizm variants is absurd. Every shiny set has about 85 different parallels. Dollar box fodder for decades.

[dodgerfanjohn]

Originally Posted by JWBlue

Seen the statement a lot of places that we are.

Back in the day, we were not chasing multiple cards worth thousands of dollars. That is not even factoring in grading which did not exist.

Even though the production might be increasing to the same level, not the same.

Production is nowhere near production from 1987 to 1991. Not even close. The market is no where as large either.

[Bosoxfan5990]

Oh good, I was just thinking I haven't seen a thread like this in a week.

[Big35Hurt]

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

Production is nowhere near production from 1987 to 1991. Not even close. The market is no where as large either.

The former is true, but the latter is questionable at best. Card shows in the 1990s were never packed the way they are now. Maybe it's a high percentage of flippers versus collectors, but still every show I go to is much more packed than anything I ever experienced during the original junk wax era.

[timber63401]

Originally Posted by Big35Hurt

The former is true, but the latter is questionable at best. Card shows in the 1990s were never packed the way they are now. Maybe it's a high percentage of flippers versus collectors, but still every show I go to is much more packed than anything I ever experienced during the original junk wax era.

There will come a point where the flipper/collector ratio leans to heavy on 1 side and the house of cards will fall. Might be a decade from now but all bubbles burst.

[erock28]

Originally Posted by Big35Hurt

The former is true, but the latter is questionable at best. Card shows in the 1990s were never packed the way they are now. Maybe it's a high percentage of flippers versus collectors, but still every show I go to is much more packed than anything I ever experienced during the original junk wax era.

I don't know what area you're from, but I was a teen in the junk wax era, and every weekend near Milwaukee there were several if not a dozen shows. And they were all packed. I haven't been a to a show in a couple of years, but the only one I even know of locally is a monthly gig in Oak Creek. That show is jam packed for sure - but my point is the amount of shows that exist is WAY below what it was in the early 90's, and those early 90's shows were always crowded. So I do believe there are far less people in the market.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by erock28

I don't know what area you're from, but I was a teen in the junk wax era, and every weekend near Milwaukee there were several if not a dozen shows. And they were all packed. I haven't been a to a show in a couple of years, but the only one I even know of locally is a monthly gig in Oak Creek. That show is jam packed for sure - but my point is the amount of shows that exist is WAY below what it was in the early 90's, and those early 90's shows were always crowded. So I do believe there are far less people in the market.

Your anecdote aside, there are FAR more people participating in the hobby today than during the junk wax era. And it isn't close. I disagree with your assessment that there are fewer shows today than then (you just must live in an area with few shows), but regardless, using number of shows to guage the size of the sports card market is a poor way to evaluate it. Today there are far more outlets for sports cards (with the advent of the internet since the junk wax era) thus making card shows much less relevant, and far less indicative of the size of the market. In fact, the fact that there are still so many shows in 2025, when they are mostly irrelevant for the moving of cards (they are mostly social events), tells me just how big the market is today.

[JWBlue]

People complain endlessly about overproduction as if it is ruining the hobby.

Wish we could see the actual sales numbers.

[Big35Hurt]

Originally Posted by erock28

I don't know what area you're from, but I was a teen in the junk wax era, and every weekend near Milwaukee there were several if not a dozen shows. And they were all packed. I haven't been a to a show in a couple of years, but the only one I even know of locally is a monthly gig in Oak Creek. That show is jam packed for sure - but my point is the amount of shows that exist is WAY below what it was in the early 90's, and those early 90's shows were always crowded. So I do believe there are far less people in the market.

Oak Creek is a good show and packed as you said. Lake Country Cards is hosting a monthly show in Pewaukee. There was a monster show in Franklin in April and a 3-day show at the Baird Center in May. This weekend there is a show in Hartford and another one in West Allis. There are plenty of shows going on. And as OhioLawyer pointed out, the shows only represent a portion of the overall market. Online buying of cards on grand scale didn't exist in the 1990s so card shops and shows were the only options (besides trading with friends).

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Big35Hurt

The former is true, but the latter is questionable at best. Card shows in the 1990s were never packed the way they are now. Maybe it's a high percentage of flippers versus collectors, but still every show I go to is much more packed than anything I ever experienced during the original junk wax era.

People are fatter now.

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by mfw13

We are in a:

- junk parallel era
- junk auto era
- junk relic era

Basically, 90% of the so-called "hits" that are supposed to provide the value to justify high wax prices are actually junk.

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

90% might be a little low.

To add onto everything - Even the hits themselves are junk.

Hate to point to Fanatics Premiere again, but go look at that. Maybe it's worth something right now, but anyone with the ability to read at a 5th grade level or higher think that the "not from any event" Caitlin Clark 2nd year "RC" auto is really worth the 180k with 3d left price tag?

Obviously that's your pinnacle hit from a WNBA product I'd imagine. But we also have the Michael Penix PSA 8 Kaboom 1/1 going for 10.5k and even a Brady /10 gold Kaboom at 75k - all with 3 days left, seems utterly ridiculous.

I think certain things are overprinted, junk wax or not whatever I don't know or care enough. But clearly a lot of these cards (including hits) are going to plummet in value. As the vast majority inevitably do. But most hits will too.

[anusinha]

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

Production is nowhere near production from 1987 to 1991. Not even close. The market is no where as large either.

tcg didnt exist back then, if you add that in, the market now is much larger.

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by erock28

I don't know what area you're from, but I was a teen in the junk wax era, and every weekend near Milwaukee there were several if not a dozen shows. And they were all packed. I haven't been a to a show in a couple of years, but the only one I even know of locally is a monthly gig in Oak Creek. That show is jam packed for sure - but my point is the amount of shows that exist is WAY below what it was in the early 90's, and those early 90's shows were always crowded. So I do believe there are far less people in the market.

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Your anecdote aside, there are FAR more people participating in the hobby today than during the junk wax era. And it isn't close. I disagree with your assessment that there are fewer shows today than then (you just must live in an area with few shows), but regardless, using number of shows to guage the size of the sports card market is a poor way to evaluate it. Today there are far more outlets for sports cards (with the advent of the internet since the junk wax era) thus making card shows much less relevant, and far less indicative of the size of the market. In fact, the fact that there are still so many shows in 2025, when they are mostly irrelevant for the moving of cards (they are mostly social events), tells me just how big the market is today.

You also have to factor in Pokemon