Breakers and Vicious Cycles - Is there any escape?

[rizzeedizzee]

It used to be that prices for sealed were driven by organic demand, and would remain affordable for often several years after release. But since breaking became ubiquitous, there is far greater demand for sealed, causing prices to rise, which causes more people - whether due to not wanting to collect singles, the gambling itch, or just enjoying opening more - to join breaks because they can no longer afford boxes or cases, which causes sealed prices to rise still further, and so on and so on.

And those who participate in breaks often get cards they either don't want or have to sell to fund buying into more breaks. Who buys these cards? Those who make repacks, which are then sold by breakers to be able to afford even more product to run even more breaks.

There has to come a time when this all collapses like a house of cards, no? If not, how? I get that some people have more than enough money to be able to buy into as many breaks as they want, but most don't.

The other thing that is frustrating is this should be a great time for people who collect certain players or teams, given the flood of cards from these breaks hitting the market. But bargains seem to no longer exist, I suspect in large part due to repackers swooping in.

Sorry - just felt like I had to vent. I don't have anything against breakers. No one is making people buy into breaks. I just wonder if they realize their success might ultimately lead to their demise.

[ShoutFan2020]

Yes, the "hobby" has changed and not for the better. Boxes that were bad breaks at $200 are now even worse breaks at $350. The days of having an enjoyable break of a $100 without the feeling you just lost at the the casino are gone.

Formatting of boxes and hit ratio also plays into it. While you can get UD Ice boxes for $70, that's only one auto or memorabilia card as a hit.

Facts are if you take that same money for the cost of the box, you can buy a single from that products that is way better than what that box would have given you.

You go to the casino, and place a red/black bet on the roulette wheel, what are your odds? 48%. You open a box or join a break, what are your odds of coming out ahead? 10%-20%? Basically if you are in it for the thrill of the gamble, this hobby shouldn't be your bag. There's better odds at the casino.

So that leaves collecting a player/team PC if you are in it for the hobby aspect. Good news for hockey enthusiasts is only a couple players really drive that higher price. Even highly regarded HOF autos can be achieved easily.

Does it satisfy the itch? Not as much, but it'll do for now. I'd like to be sipping $200 scotch all the time too, but vodka and soda do the trick just as well in summer.

[odjickfan]

The smart play is to go very easy on wax and focus on buying nice singles that you truly love.

[hermanotarjeta]

The concept of breaking will never go away.

However, breaking’s affect on wax prices potentially could decline in the future as you’ve alluded to.

I look forward to the day when individuals can open their own boxes one day without paying the breaker rate.

[txrngr34]

Originally Posted by odjickfan

The smart play is to go very easy on wax and focus on buying nice singles that you truly love.

My approach too.

However, not because I'm smart but because I'm priced out of ripping wax.

[boxbuster7]

can I get a sparknotes?

[chris_ac]

The Greek tragedy is despite the sea of singles for sale on ebay alone, still very few of the best singles are FS. Repackers may indeed be snatching them, but for all the opened product by said breakers, cards of star/superstar caliber /25 or less are not easy to locate. Yes, pushing aside the less desirable parallel parallels. And the condition issues where lots of brand new cards are 7/8/9 out of the pack more than you wish added to it, your choice of singles to find for your collecting purposes is easier to say than achieve imho.

[stoopid]

Originally Posted by rizzeedizzee

... No one is making people buy into breaks. I just wonder if they realize their success might ultimately lead to their demise.

If the price for unopened product is so high people can't afford it, then YES people are being forced into breaks if they want to 'open' new product. And also, this means you DO have a problem with breakers.

The sooner we see breaking and the gambling aspects of this hobby (including repacks) for the disease it is, the sooner we can all start pulling in the same direction towards a solution. Until then, continuing to protect people's feelings or cowardice in suppressing our own voices will only result in the same ole same.

[stoopid]

Originally Posted by odjickfan

The smart play is to go very easy on wax and focus on buying nice singles that you truly love.

The OP's point about repackers scooping up many of the desirable singles that would typically end up on the open market for all to buy is the reason this is no longer plausible (or an excuse for perpetuating the new normal).

[txrngr34]

Originally Posted by chris_ac

The Greek tragedy is despite the sea of singles for sale on ebay alone, still very few of the best singles are FS. Repackers may indeed be snatching them, but for all the opened product by said breakers, cards of star/superstar caliber /25 or less are not easy to locate. Yes, pushing aside the less desirable parallel parallels. And the condition issues where lots of brand new cards are 7/8/9 out of the pack more than you wish added to it, your choice of singles to find for your collecting purposes is easier to say than achieve imho.

Fair points, for sure.

However, I'd argue that as a collector I'm less inclined to look for a 10. I'm more interested in eye appeal and value, so I'm fine buying a raw 8 that looks good without a microscope.

Now, if you're buying raw singles for grading, that's probably a way different market than what many of us singles collectors are contending with. I've been pretty happy with the selection of singles, but admittedly I'm not looking for /25 or rarer, mostly value.

[ThatGuyPal]

I don't think it's going away. There are people who buy a lottery ticket a day for most of their lives and never win and don't see an issue as they are "one win away". Even if boxes are $100 a portion of people will still rather join 10 breaks at $10 and have the chance at the "hit" from ten different boxes then buy one even if they can afford it.

I do think Bedard prices have left some feeling entitled though, especially those who only rip hockey and thus haven't seen the sticker shock of football/basketball prices. I say this because there are recent products with weak rookie classes that are still cheap and even ones with ok rookies like Wyatt Johnston (22-23 S2) but people don't want those because you can't hit a $300 YG. Vice versa even if breaking didn't exist I doubt you would be able to get Mcdavid's YG year boxes for an affordable price as it has Mcdavid. So while breaking definitely impacts prices I think a lot are salty they can't get any Bedard year products cheap as there are definitely recent UD sets selling for pretty low right now.

[ejs23]

The OP & everyone else in this thread nailed it.

I'd add that the manufacturers deserve blame as well. They've been more than happy to make products and set prices with breakers in mind. And when things started moving in this direction the smart move was to just buy singles, but as has been pointed out above repackers are driving up the singles market too.

I don't think anyone is mad about the price of Bedard products... the move to the breaker/repacker economy started years ago and happened across all sports.

[IronCladLou]

Paying 70% of comps are the scourge of society. The degens offload at 70% and the repackers win again

[kluke84]

Buy singles if you don't like breaks. They aren't stopping.

[IronCladLou]

Originally Posted by kluke84

Buy singles if you don't like breaks. They aren't stopping.

Yeah, we know, you like breaks.

[kluke84]

Originally Posted by IronCladLou

Yeah, we know, you like breaks.

We know you like to complain

[stoopid]

Originally Posted by ejs23

I'd add that the manufacturers deserve blame as well. They've been more than happy to make products and set prices with breakers in mind. And when things started moving in this direction the smart move was to just buy singles, but as has been pointed out above repackers are driving up the singles market too.

I'm not a socialist by nature, but when you see the economic principles of the current system play out across multiple markets it certainly exposes the flaws in assigning value to anything. From inception, every commodity market is a race to ruin. Everyone finds their % margin and does everything they can to extract that value even when it's clear it will lead to the ruin/elimination of that thing even being a thing.

We are seeing different specific contributing factors but the exact same end in sight as the junk wax era.

[Asian62150]

From a business perspective, why change the model? Card companies are making more than they ever have (especially from a margin perspective) and it doesn't seem like it is slowing down.

It's a bummer not to be able to rip as much, but it's forced me to focus on singles, which is the way to go if you're chasing a specific card of a guy.

Of course it's always exciting to rip because of the unknown and the lottery ticket potential, but I think the ROI for the actual lottery is better than current wax prices.

If enough collectors wise up and just go for singles, it'll change. But the "thrill of opening" and the somewhat false idea that you're financially better off buying into breaks instead of buying your own box will just keep fueling breaks.

Maybe if the gov steps in and regulates breaking somehow it'll change.

[stoopid]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

If enough collectors wise up and just go for singles, it'll change. But the "thrill of opening" and the somewhat false idea that you're financially better off buying into breaks instead of buying your own box will just keep fueling breaks.

Although recent and current pricing precludes me from engaging very often in it, I enjoy opening product. Just for the experience of seeing the odds play out and hold the various card types (inserts/parallels) in hand. I never look for or expect any return of investment, and more often than not that's exactly what I and most people get. lol

Am I really that much an outlier? I doubt it, I interact with others in the hobby so unless they're all lying, there's many who are not buying product very often but when they do, are not 'gambling'. The gambling aspect is most definitely present in all the pomp and presentation of breaking. It's akin to going to the card casino. Epack looks like video poker/slots.

[rizzeedizzee]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

From a business perspective, why change the model? Card companies are making more than they ever have (especially from a margin perspective) and it doesn't seem like it is slowing down.

Which was also the case in the late 80s and early 90s, hence the concern.

This is another factor. Card companies are smart enough to know this can't continue forever, so they maximize profit for the here and now.

The other thing which makes it crystal clear that trouble is afoot is the fact that a PSA 9 on most newer cards means it can be sold for barely more than the raw price, if even more. And for a Young Gun, it's a 10 or bust. And just look at how many graded cards are selling - yes, actually selling - for less than it cost to grade them.

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by stoopid

Although recent and current pricing precludes me from engaging very often in it, I enjoy opening product. Just for the experience of seeing the odds play out and hold the various card types (inserts/parallels) in hand. I never look for or expect any return of investment, and more often than not that's exactly what I and most people get. lol

Am I really that much an outlier? I doubt it, I interact with others in the hobby so unless they're all lying, there's many who are not buying product very often but when they do, are not 'gambling'. The gambling aspect is most definitely present in all the pomp and presentation of breaking. It's akin to going to the card casino. Epack looks like video poker/slots.

There are definitely a lot of ppl like you, which is part of the reason why breakers stay in business. It's not what I would do, but that doesn't make me any better than you. If you enjoy it and can afford it, great!

Originally Posted by rizzeedizzee

Which was also the case in the late 80s and early 90s, hence the concern.

This is another factor. Card companies are smart enough to know this can't continue forever, so they maximize profit for the here and now.

The other thing which makes it crystal clear that trouble is afoot is the fact that a PSA 9 on most newer cards means it can be sold for barely more than the raw price, if even more. And for a Young Gun, it's a 10 or bust. And just look at how many graded cards are selling - yes, actually selling - for less than it cost to grade them.

I agree that the card companies are short sighted. During the pandemic boom, I said they should be trying to get more kids involved and grow the consumer base, not just go for the big bucks over a shorter amount of time. There was brief hope when Luber took the reigns (he wasn't a white knight but he had some decent ideas) but that obviously didn't pan out and now here we are.

[stoopid]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

There are definitely a lot of ppl like you, which is part of the reason why breakers stay in business. It's not what I would do, but that doesn't make me any better than you. If you enjoy it and can afford it, great!

I can't afford to do it often, because it's so expensive, because breaking and the subsequent inflated products is tilting the hobby away from the collector/hobbyist. I don't think you're following the issue (or the content of my post), at all.

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by stoopid

I can't afford to do it often, because it's so expensive, because breaking and the subsequent inflated products is tilting the hobby away from the collector/hobbyist. I don't think you're following the issue (or the content of my post), at all.

OP is asking if there is any escape from the cycle.

It's pretty simple. Don't become addicted to any elements of the hobby, whether that be breaking or buying singles to add to your collection...

[stoopid]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

It's pretty simple. Don't become addicted to any elements of the hobby, whether that be breaking or buying singles to add to your collection...

You're being obtuse. The singles market is crud too. There's no "good" element in the hobby at the moment, if we're looking at the cycle of pricing basically being fixed and/or inflating annually. Following your logic as applied to the actual situation -- "It's pretty simple, don't collect."

[Seahawks fan]

Greed is always the issue. When anything becomes popular you attract more people which = more money for the companies. They could easily improve/innovate/or at the very least keep the product what it was. Instead you get higher prices, less autos/hits, less game used, less innovation, and a huge flood of production that just kills value and causes quality issues.

I for one still have optimism for hockey compared to other sports. Connor Bedard mania is in full effect and we've seen him in everything from his very own set to many CHL sets. There are only 800 different Bedard cards. Even if you double or triple that number for the products that have not been produced yet. You are still only at 2k-3k. Compare that to football where Trevor Lawrence had over 7,200 different cards in 2021 alone. That is more cards than the NHL's best player Connor Bedard has total in his 8 seasons in the league. If Hockey ends up cutting back production some next season without having a Bedard hype type player, It would do some good.