What happened to the Marvel card market?

[fabiani12333]

YouTuber, The Card Boss -- kind of a douchey name, if I'm being honest -- posted a video three months ago explaining why he quit posting Marvel card videos. He provides a good narrative for what has happened to the Marvel card market in recent years.

He explained that after the sports card boom of 2020, in which large amounts of capital was injected into the sports card market and caused prices to dramatically increase, numbered and rare Marvel cards became the next target by card flippers, as they were viewed as "undervalued" compared to sports cards. Graded 90s Marvel base cards had already had their run up in 2020, but the market collapsed due to being flooded with supply, with PSA pop reports skyrocketing.

There was a 15-month run up in high-end Marvel card prices during 2021 and 2022, in which resellers like The Card Boss would buy up raw-conditioned Marvel cards and submit them to PSA for grading so they could resell them for a profit. Limited-numbered Marvel cards like PMGs exploded in price practically overnight.

Card collectors were left with a choice -- either pay way higher prices for cards they wanted, or sell part or all of their collections off. I personally sold some graded cards in 2020, but mostly held onto my core collection. Paying what I thought were obscene and inflated prices for cards was never an option, though.

The Marvel trading card bubble all came crashing down in mid 2022, though, as prices of Marvel PMGs tanked just as hard as they had risen. Why the sudden collapse in prices? Well, maybe it had something to do with the Federal Reserve raising interests in mid 2022 to combat out of control inflation. The Fed's efforts caused excess credit and cash to dry up -- no more cheap and easy money for people and businesses, I guess.

The Card Boss said the current Marvel card market is now basically dead for flippers -- prices are either stable or going down, so there's no opportunity to resell cards for a profit. He says this is essentially why he has stopped making Marvel card videos. It's okay, though, because he enjoyed making money and making new friends -- isn't that nice?

If you are like me and were buying Marvel cards prior to the pandemic, you'd know that prices are still way higher than they used to be. So, I don't see this as a good thing for the market going forward, as collectors are still being priced out of cards.

One thing not discussed in the video are new releases by Upper Deck. Anyone who has been following the Marvel card market the last year has noticed a sharp increase in the number of Marvel comic and MCU card products released. Upper Deck has been trying to play catch-up with card products that were delayed due to supply chain disruptions during the pandemic. This increase in supply has contributed to a dilutution in the Marvel card market, causing more downward pressure on an already declining market.

[DynaEtch]

I think what you said at the end about the glut (and parallel overload) will be one of the biggest problems for things sustaining going forward in marvel. Look at Marvel Platinum- very popular of course, but I do not think the hobby is big enough to absorb a massive set like that and keep demand up long term for a zillion parallels, especially outside the main-collected characters. And that’s just one set! And it hasn’t even hit epack yet which will dilute that even more. I’m seeing posts on social media/reddit etc about the set…maybe I’m wrong but rather than people collecting it, it seems more just like people are gambling on blasters for a hit, and then asking how much it’s worth, and sending it off to be graded (in my mind grading is basically just about the $ and future selling. That is the main point of grading).

I watched the Card Boss’s video about marvel. Tbh seeing as he was primarily dealing in 90MU graded base and PMGs, I can see how that person would see all gloom and think the sky is falling. Yes that stuff skyrocketed to unheard of heights during the pandemic, and now has fallen. Still way above where it was 6 years ago, but fallen, in some cases drastically. But perhaps a wider perspective is needed here. Nonsports is pretty niche. In it though, Marvel is huge, one of the top dogs in terms of attention, especially for non-auto cards like base parallels and limited inserts (if marvel is doing horribly, I’d hate to know what things like Star Trek, DC, or nonbranded non sports like UD Cosmic are doing!). Look at MM22 boxes…people are still paying over $750 for those boxes..for the best sets people are still paying surprising amounts of money. But yea singles prices have went down a bit.

And then there’s sketches, big part of marvel cards, which weren’t even addressed in the video and I’m doubtful many of the sports flippers coming in are much aware of that market. I think sketches (top ones particularly) have weathered the post pandemic depression well. Sketches will always be their own category. Easier to sell since they are unique and sellers have no direct competition, plus have the intrinsic value in being a work of art, which took time, effort, and skill for someone to make.

I do some selling, and I can confirm especially this last year marvel card sales have been less. I think a lot of that is external economic factors and people spending less on collectibles, and doesn’t have to be just marvel. Key things in marvel- stuff like sealed rare boxes, key MM16, those 92 Impel Jim Lee pack inserted autos, 1996MM base set, big name sketches, red spectrums etc should be more or less ok. Graded overproduced 90MU, modern colored parallels, random artist auto cards /99, yea maybe not so much. I’m looking at some of the prices for Marvel Platnium sketches and it’s nuts. Or that Deadpool Marvel Premier The Scream Shadowbox you posted…the key desired stuff should weather things ok.

[imwonderboy]

Discretionary income continues to fall - that leads to less spending on trading cards across the board. The 'investors' who jumped into the marvel market during COVID have come and gone leaving prices to fall. UD continues to pump out product at a rapid rate that and the market cannot absorb it so prices fall.

Bottom line - this is good for true collectors but not for flippers. Even products like Platinum will flatten out. IMO people are spending crazy money on Platinum and it will be a blood bath when it hits Epack.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by DynaEtch

And then there’s sketches, big part of marvel cards, which weren’t even addressed in the video and I’m doubtful many of the sports flippers coming in are much aware of that market. I think sketches (top ones particularly) have weathered the post pandemic depression well. Sketches will always be their own category. Easier to sell since they are unique and sellers have no direct competition, plus have the intrinsic value in being a work of art, which took time, effort, and skill for someone to make.

I do some selling, and I can confirm especially this last year marvel card sales have been less. I think a lot of that is external economic factors and people spending less on collectibles, and doesn’t have to be just marvel. Key things in marvel- stuff like sealed rare boxes, key MM16, those 92 Impel Jim Lee pack inserted autos, 1996MM base set, big name sketches, red spectrums etc should be more or less ok. Graded overproduced 90MU, modern colored parallels, random artist auto cards /99, yea maybe not so much. I’m looking at some of the prices for Marvel Platnium sketches and it’s nuts. Or that Deadpool Marvel Premier The Scream Shadowbox you posted…the key desired stuff should weather things ok.

Several good points, Dyna. I think sketches weren't targeted because they were all 1/1s, varying in style and quality, and weren't easily accessible to flippers. But perhaps most importantly, they didn't offer the added value that came from grading -- condition isn't really a factor with sketch cards.

I've mentioned this before, but I remember seeing in 2021 PMGs that had been sitting on Comc and eBay for years suddenly get bought up or repriced for 10x the previous price. Even during the sports card boom in 2020, green PMGs of noteworthy characters were selling for less than $1,000.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by imwonderboy

Discretionary income continues to fall - that leads to less spending on trading cards across the board. The 'investors' who jumped into the marvel market during COVID have come and gone leaving prices to fall. UD continues to pump out product at a rapid rate that and the market cannot absorb it so prices fall.

Bottom line - this is good for true collectors but not for flippers. Even products like Platinum will flatten out. IMO people are spending crazy money on Platinum and it will be a blood bath when it hits Epack.

I don't know how good it is for collectors either, because the products that Upper Deck has been producing lately, with all the parallels, seems geared more towards group breakers and sports card flippers than collectors. They seemed to create more parallels as an easy way to inflate the number of "hits" in a product.

One thing I didn't mention in my post was Marvel's popularity -- both Marvel comics and films have been on the decline. Four of the five worst financially performing films last year were MCU films. Long time comic book shops across America are closing after having a temporary boom during the pandemic.

The successful X-Men '97 show and the highly-anticipated Deadpool & Wolverine movie should at least somewhat offset those trends in the near term, though.

[nabzy28]

A lot of what happened was people passing the same cards back and forth. I tracked '89 Upper Deck baseball during the 'boom', since the Griffey Jr. RC PSA's went nuts, of course. As it spread to the other rookies, like Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez, I'd look through high bids on sellers that had a seemingly endless supply of PSA 10's of those cards. The winning bidders would always be incrementally higher on each listing, say $10. They'd always make sure theirs sold for $10 higher than the last one, setting the market. The Marvel Universe Series 1 was the parallel example, here. They have to have access to a decent amount of same product to make it work. That's why you don't see it in sketch cards. The sketch market, in general, may rise for a particular artist or character across the board, based on broad demand. It can't be done with any one specific thing, in sketch cards, or they'd get stuck holding the bag - not manipulating a market - because the one (or few) sketch(es) they may try to do it with may not have broad appeal.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by nabzy28

A lot of what happened was people passing the same cards back and forth. I tracked '89 Upper Deck baseball during the 'boom', since the Griffey Jr. RC PSA's went nuts, of course. As it spread to the other rookies, like Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez, I'd look through high bids on sellers that had a seemingly endless supply of PSA 10's of those cards. The winning bidders would always be incrementally higher on each listing, say $10. They'd always make sure theirs sold for $10 higher than the last one, setting the market. The Marvel Universe Series 1 was the parallel example, here. They have to have access to a decent amount of same product to make it work. That's why you don't see it in sketch cards. The sketch market, in general, may rise for a particular artist or character across the board, based on broad demand. It can't be done with any one specific thing, in sketch cards, or they'd get stuck holding the bag - not manipulating a market - because the one (or few) sketch(es) they may try to do it with may not have broad appeal.

This is a good point -- the flippers need an easily accessible, mass-produced card to generate enough sales volume to create the illusion of popularity and a rising market.

[hermanotarjeta]

Sounds like the sports card market.

[sthoemke]

1) Upper Deck epack glut of past product.

2) Upper Deck epack prices of new product.

[dd316]

This is all documented and discussed real-time in this thread: https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...ghlight=marvel

[Brobocop]

I remember the Spider-Man blue PMG that went for around $100k because I owned a Spider-Man blue PMG at one point many, many years ago. I knew that even if that sale was legit (not sure if it was ever proven to be legit) that we had hit the peak for Marvel cards. I sold so many Fleer Retro base and a few red PMGs from that set for a few thousand and boy am I glad I did because those same cards can be had for 1/10th of what I got for them.

I think that a few people saw an opportunity to create artificial demand and ran with it. Felt like the same tried to be done to WWE and MMA but didn't take off like the Marvel boom did. Far From Home hitting $1B right as the blue PMG went wild was the perfect combo to lit the match.

[DynaEtch]

Yea sketches are essentially separate from what flippers are involved in. I don’t think they majorly rose in price during the Covid craze, and also don’t think they fell during the falling prices afterwards- they are pretty steady. There will always be demand for good works of art.

It’s a fair point about interest in MCU and comics declining. Im going to throw it out there that prices and interest in marvel cards are not as connected to that as you might think (marvel art cards at least). That is big for general public’s interest (and perhaps people hoarding first appearance comic issues of a character in upcoming movies). But marvel cards are a pretty niche thing mainly collected by…card collectors, even many comic people barely know they exist. The cards generally aren’t tied to new movies or their success. Maybe people collecting marvel art cards are art appreciators. Almost art collectors in a sense. I collect and I barely know anything going on during the last couple decades in terms of marvel comic storylines or who the newest characters are. I don’t really watch any of the Marvels shows on Disney+, or even the movies lately. Yet I like marvel cards. Marvel for me is primarily the universe I remember from 60s to like 90s….what I grew up with. And that’s pretty timeless, there are an infinite way to depict those characters and collect their art (yes cards of new characters exist too).

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by DynaEtch

It’s a fair point about interest in MCU and comics declining. Im going to throw it out there that prices and interest in marvel cards are not as connected to that as you might think (marvel art cards at least). That is big for general public’s interest (and perhaps people hoarding first appearance comic issues of a character in upcoming movies). But marvel cards are a pretty niche thing mainly collected by…card collectors, even many comic people barely know they exist. The cards generally aren’t tied to new movies or their success. Maybe people collecting marvel art cards are art appreciators. Almost art collectors in a sense. I collect and I barely know anything going on during the last couple decades in terms of marvel comic storylines or who the newest characters are. I don’t really watch any of the Marvels shows on Disney+, or even the movies lately. Yet I like marvel cards. Marvel for me is primarily the universe I remember from 60s to like 90s….what I grew up with. And that’s pretty timeless, there are an infinite way to depict those characters and collect their art (yes cards of new characters exist too).

There are those who collected Marvel trading cards and comic books in the 90s like you and I, but I do think the MCU films have brought widespread awareness of Marvel characters to a whole new generation of people. I think that has increased the relevancy and desirability of Marvel trading cards. Has that translated to a lot of new Marvel card collectors? Probably not. But I do think it has converted some people. Like you said, though, it's a very niche market.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by dd316

This is all documented and discussed real-time in this thread: https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...ghlight=marvel

Ah, yes -- a thread populated by pumpers, with a small number of anti-pumpers.

Are any of the pumpers willing to reveal the level of success with their efforts? Did you make out like a bandit?

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by dd316

This is all documented and discussed real-time in this thread: https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...ghlight=marvel

Lol tons of pumping in this thread. You can just tell based on the new names randomly popping in this was one of those hype things. You nailed it with your first post in that thread about the 90 MU, held up well.

I’d have to go back and look through it, but I could have been on board with the hype in some posts, it was such a bizarre and exciting time in marvel cards. I wasn’t one of the lucky people sitting on and dealing in PMGs and such though. That stuff was outside my radar, in a different world with the crazy prices.

[KhalDrogo]

Aoki and Alexis jumped in, pumped, and jumped out. Alexis probably still owns some. He generally ends up a victim of his own pumping because he is a real collector too.

[IndySportsCards]

Everything is selling for less. Nobody has any money. The Economy is in the toilet and people are having to work two jobs to afford gas to one of those jobs.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Aoki and Alexis jumped in, pumped, and jumped out. Alexis probably still owns some. He generally ends up a victim of his own pumping because he is a real collector too.

I'm unfamiliar with Alexis. Serious question -- is Aoki actually influential? Or does he just like being on camera all the time? I did a search on YouTube, and he's in a bunch of random videos.

Let's not forget Kenny G pulling the Spidey PMG with LaLa -- totally not staged, haha.

[finfangfan]

COVID was definitely a weird time where people were self isolating, had disposable income, a lot of time on their hands, and few competing social activities to spend their money on. This became a perfect storm for the card market to take off.

Also, it was a time when NFTs were taking off and I think a lot of the money people made selling NFTs went into the physical card market.

I can’t see us ever seeing anything like that again in the nonsports market. It is nice to see sets like Marvel Platinum pop up with low cost blasters that actually had some decent cards to be had for the price. But I feel like most of the glut sets will be overpriced and under-collected.

Nostalgia also plays a big part in the peaks and valleys of a hobby and I doubt we can count on too much nostalgia for 2020 Marvel sets being a driving force in sales in the 2040s (unlike how 1990s nostalgia drove a lot of the COVID market boom). The hobby is aging with most sales done online as opposed to kids riding their bikes to 7-11s in the 90’s.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

Nostalgia also plays a big part in the peaks and valleys of a hobby and I doubt we can count on too much nostalgia for 2020 Marvel sets being a driving force in sales in the 2040s (unlike how 1990s nostalgia drove a lot of the COVID market boom). The hobby is aging with most sales done online as opposed to kids riding their bikes to 7-11s in the 90’s.

Good point -- ultra-modern Marvel isn't mass-produced like in the 90s and kids are mostly priced out of it, unlike Pokémon.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

I feel like most of the glut sets will be overpriced and under-collected.

And that’s the million dollar question. In general in marvel are there more or less collectors than 6-10 years ago? I do think there are more people in the hobby. You have content channels now like Spidey hits and all the followers. You have the FB groups, there is no question there are more eyes on marvel cards than before, like around MM16 days.

How many are collecting vs just flipping/gambling? There are some at least. There is no question there are a lot of character collectors in marvel today, and that very well may carry Marvel actual collecting into the future. Set collectors? I’m not so sure, since these new sets like platinum are almost impossible to fully collect, UD is alienating master set collectors and people like me are becoming a thing of the past. But it’s a field day for character collectors. And they are truly collecting. But the problem here is the parallels of non-collected characters. Say in Platinum a /33 orange checkers parallel of Ronan the Accuser, Dormammu, Tombstone, or Multiple Man, etc. There is essentially no audience for that card: I can’t believe almost anyone is collecting a whole orange checkers /33 set. No one is collecting those characters. So who would want the card in the end (outside short term flipping)? And that’s why value almost has to vastly plummet for non-key card parallels- and there are a ton of them out there, ever expanding in these glut sets.

I shouldn’t paint such a gloom picture about the marvel market though. It is down (as are other collectibles right now). But it continues to be one of the strongest markets in nonsports. Ever tried to sell non-auto sets and inserts in other non sports like artbox Harry Potter? Or from UD Cosmic? I have, and it’s a true ghost town, there is very little interest in the stuff and next to no value. Non-sketches (sketches are Marvel art sets equivalent to autos in movie/show sets) in Marvel in the form of parallels or BSGs or PMGs can go for a heck of a lot money comparatively. It is much easier to sell in Marvel….even now. And the sketch side of marvel cards will continue to be impervious to much of all this. And as long as MM22 boxes are selling for >$700, and MM16 boxes selling for who knows how much, I just can’t say the market is in the gutter. But the glut of parallels and new sets however is too much for this hobby to absorb, that I’m pretty sure of.

[nabzy28]

For the life of me I cannot figure out why the hell UD doesn't just make up some great looking Exquisite cards of all these main characters and get them hard signed. Obviously they've been able to find Chris Evans, Chris Pratt, Hiddleston, Hemsworth and even Portman. Just character cards on Exquisite designs. That's it. They don't have to be associated with any specific release, movie or show. Drop them in whatever Marvel product(s) are released over the next couple years.

[dd316]

Originally Posted by nabzy28

For the life of me I cannot figure out why the hell UD doesn't just make up some great looking Exquisite cards of all these main characters and get them hard signed. Obviously they've been able to find Chris Evans, Chris Pratt, Hiddleston, Hemsworth and even Portman. Just character cards on Exquisite designs. That's it. They don't have to be associated with any specific release, movie or show. Drop them in whatever Marvel product(s) are released over the next couple years.

That's a great idea.

[Brobocop]

Originally Posted by dd316

That's a great idea.

That's why they won't do it. They'd rather have cards that are over-designed, ugly, and have a stupid name.

[daxwills]

Originally Posted by Brobocop

That's why they won't do it. They'd rather have cards that are over-designed, ugly, and have a stupid name.

Star Wars Stellar seems to have no trouble selling and fits the description pretty well.