Jordan/Kobe supply and demand

[Torro]

It’s a topic that I have not seen anyone discussing, while there is a lot of talks about the supply of the current NBA rookies/superstars, and how the demand is not going to be able to keep up with it.

At the same time no one talks about the fact that Jordan NBA cards have not been produced since 2009-10 and also no Kobe cards since 2019-20, and how it can lead to lower supply than demand for these players if nothing changes. It seems to be that it will likely continue this way for unknown period (maybe Fanatics will be able to get MJ in their products by 2026 if they acquire upper deck, Panini definitely not planning to do that and with Kobe it’s even more difficult).

Would be interesting to hear your take on it, are you expecting to see more LA Kobe and Bulls MJ cards produced in the near future? And if we never see any Kobe / MJ nba cards produced ever again, then how it will impact the demand/supply side (less rare cards becoming more desired?)

[KhalDrogo]

This is discussed all the time here.

Kobe could never have another card made, and he’d still have too much supply.

MJ is obviously different, especially playing days MJ. However, the available supply is actually pretty good for all of it. Even for the true rarities like Jambalaya, Ultra Stars Gold, and PMGs. These are usually trading a couple of times a year. Very expensive, but not impossible to find.

[Torro]

Thanks, I appreciate your take on it!

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Kobe could never have another card made, and he’d still have too much supply.

If Kobe already has too much supply (I agree that panini overprint Kobe as he was the main attraction especially with the autos) why is Kobe cards selling at the crazy high prices still, even the 2019-20 prizm stuff has been going up while for example Lebron same year prizm cards (the first in LA uniform) have been dropping like stones for several years? Seems to me that the demand is consolidating in 2019-20 prizm Kobe’s as there have not been any new ones coming out.

[duron]

When the modern ‘vesterz cope-pivot to 90s and realize it’s not the magic pill either, will they finally give up or move back even more to vintage?

[mc1]

Originally Posted by duron

When the modern ‘vesterz cope-pivot to 90s and realize it’s not the magic pill either, will they finally give up or move back even more to vintage?

Were never seeing 10k PSA Kobe Topps RC again. Wont even sniff 5k.

Originally Posted by Torro

If Kobe already has too much supply (I agree that panini overprint Kobe as he was the main attraction especially with the autos) why is Kobe cards selling at the crazy high prices still, even the 2019-20 prizm stuff has been going up while for example Lebron same year prizm cards (the first in LA uniform) have been dropping like stones for several years? Seems to me that the demand is consolidating in 2019-20 prizm Kobe’s as there have not been any new ones coming out.

Two words: investors , flippers

[duron]

Originally Posted by mc1

Were never seeing 10k PSA Kobe Topps RC again. Wont even sniff 5k.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Torro

If Kobe already has too much supply (I agree that panini overprint Kobe as he was the main attraction especially with the autos) why is Kobe cards selling at the crazy high prices still, even the 2019-20 prizm stuff has been going up while for example Lebron same year prizm cards (the first in LA uniform) have been dropping like stones for several years? Seems to me that the demand is consolidating in 2019-20 prizm Kobe’s as there have not been any new ones coming out.

[Torro]

Originally Posted by mc1

Were never seeing 10k PSA Kobe Topps RC again. Wont even sniff 5k.



Two words: investors , flippers

Well demand is demand, one could say that the true collectors are only after the 90s rare stuff like PMGs, but not every "true collector" has the funds. For some die hard fans it could be for example 2019 prizm Kobe orange ice (you also need to put down $100s for it). True collectors does not = deep pockets. And something in high demand does not need to 5-6 figure card.

Dont get me wrong, I'm not saying the ultra-modern Kobe base is gonna fly to the moon, nor am I thinking that 2019-20 prizm Kobe cards are special. If anything then just been waiting for the orange ice Kobe´s (or Topps chrome refractors) prices to drop like the rest of the market (waiting couple of years already..).

Coming back to the main topic, no new cards produced for GOAT level players should result in demand consolidation into the existing cards, or what's your take on it? Considering that MJ and Kobe will be relevant for a long time, to state somthing like Kobe topps rc psa10 will NEVER reach 5k again is funny. What 5000 dollars gonna be worth in 10-20 years if the government debt continues and inflation continues in the pace its been for the past 20 years?

[Torro]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Im not talking about the high end super rare stuff, there are plenty of alternatives if you are looking to drop 5k-10k (from the 90s-00s), I am a Kobe collectors and I have about 50 cards before that 2019 prizm gold on my list

Im talking more about general average cards. Its been talked alot how the there is too many colors and versions of cards and they will not be worth anything because of the new supply that keeps coming out with more versions etc (too many different cards to collect). Im trying to discuss the other side of that, no new supply coming out of 2 players with probly the highest demand in NBA and what could be the effect of that (and the cards of these players were already really expensive before they stopped the production)?

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by Torro

Thanks, I appreciate your take on it!

If Kobe already has too much supply (I agree that panini overprint Kobe as he was the main attraction especially with the autos) why is Kobe cards selling at the crazy high prices still, even the 2019-20 prizm stuff has been going up while for example Lebron same year prizm cards (the first in LA uniform) have been dropping like stones for several years? Seems to me that the demand is consolidating in 2019-20 prizm Kobe’s as there have not been any new ones coming out.

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

2019 Kobe Prizm Base PSA 10 have dropped from a pandemic high of $180-200 to $40-50 (recent sales).

[Torro]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

2019 Kobe Prizm Base PSA 10 have dropped from a pandemic high of $180-200 to $40-50 (recent sales).

And last week I was able to pick up 2019 Prizm Lebron SILVER psa 10 for $37 (dont even imagine what they were at the peak, maybe 4 figures even?)

[discodanman45]

I am still amazed that people are paying $800 for a PSA 10 1989 Fleer Jordan when a PSA 9 is $50. That is an ugly card. Anything past 1988 Fleer for base Jordans are why top loaders exist. I am even getting rid of all my graded Kobe/Shaq rookies and just going raw for those as well. So many of those were made.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by Torro

And last week I was able to pick up 2019 Prizm Lebron SILVER psa 10 for $37 (dont even imagine what they were at the peak, maybe 4 figures even?)

Are the 2019 Kobe Prizm prices going up or down? Are you saying that they are a good buy right now?

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Torro

Im not talking about the high end super rare stuff

Um, okay. Then explain which cards you're talking about here.

Originally Posted by Torro

even the 2019-20 prizm stuff has been going up

[Promethius88]

Worst....pump....thread.... ever

[MJGOAT23]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

I am still amazed that people are paying $800 for a PSA 10 1989 Fleer Jordan when a PSA 9 is $50. That is an ugly card. Anything past 1988 Fleer for base Jordans are why top loaders exist. I am even getting rid of all my graded Kobe/Shaq rookies and just going raw for those as well. So many of those were made.

yeah but try ripping through a box of 89 fleer or sifting through 5-10$ boxes and finding a 10 or even a 9. That is one tough card between the rear edge chipping, rough cuts, off centering and print dots. I dont care how many were printed.

[Torro]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Are the 2019 Kobe Prizm prices going up or down? Are you saying that they are a good buy right now?

Forget about the 2019 prizm, it was just an example, that's not the topic here.

[Torro]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Um, okay. Then explain which cards you're talking about here.

The topic is more general about LA Kobe and MJ Bulls cards that may never going to be produced again and how no new supply could impact/consolidate the demand towards existing cards in the long term (any Kobe LA / MJ Bulls licensed cards). Obviously, at the end of the day, some cards will stand out, but I'm not trying to speculate on that.

[pcptrade]

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1348623

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1399948

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1442285

[hxcmilkshake]

I don't know what you're really getting at but don't go nuts on 3 yr old Prizm cards.. of anybody

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by MJGOAT23

yeah but try ripping through a box of 89 fleer or sifting through 5-10$ boxes and finding a 10 or even a 9. That is one tough card between the rear edge chipping, rough cuts, off centering and print dots. I dont care how many were printed.

The 9's and 10's are still out there, plenty of them. Just a pain to sort through the thousands that exist out there. I have graded a ton of 1988 Fleer and have received dozens of 9's, and these cards have just as many issues and there are far less of them. I have also received a few PSA 10's, including a Rodman. There is money available here for PSA graded Jordan still, but I am not in this for $. If I was, I would be able to make a killing on these cards.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Torro

The topic is more general about LA Kobe and MJ Bulls cards that may never going to be produced again and how no new supply could impact/consolidate the demand towards existing cards in the long term (any Kobe LA / MJ Bulls licensed cards). Obviously, at the end of the day, some cards will stand out, but I'm not trying to speculate on that.

And like I said, Kobe could never have another card produced, and he would still have too much supply. If you are buying a broad basket of Kobe cards, you are likely to lose money going forward because that is the trend of the market.

[Torro]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

And like I said, Kobe could never have another card produced, and he would still have too much supply. If you are buying a broad basket of Kobe cards, you are likely to lose money going forward because that is the trend of the market.

Well yes I agree that this is the current state with the Kobe supply, as Kobe cards were heavily printed just couple years ago. But in regard to MJ, his cards are not produced since 2009, and I remember that his 90s inserts were not in high demand back then, could it be that the demand was going towards the older MJ stuff (back in 2009 every freshly produced MJ was having a similar demand to the playing days stuff). Starting from beginning of 2010s the MJ older stuff started to take off slowly and 2016-2018 things exploded in terms of demand and desirability.

Am I the only one who sees the correlation how it impacted the demand? If there were prizm gold Jordan’s and 1/1s + National Treasure auto patches, don’t you think the demand would be lower for some older stuff (10k print run inserts would not have the demand they have now)? Jordan fans (as well Kobe fans) have certain amount of funds they are looking to put into cards, so for example in regard to patch autos it’s consolidated in 2000s exquisite etc (which are also not playing day cards) as there are not National treasure / immaculate etc?

[itsinusall]

I believe the time of mass speculation in sports cards is dead, gone, and fondly remembered. Easy money has to stop at some time. Our US Government is paying interest on 33.6 Trillion in debt right now.

Not financial advice just a mind fart with toxicity for your eyes and mind. If you want to speculate with potential explosive returns may I suggest decentralized crypto currencies. Heck even buying a ASIC Miner may be a great Decision. That is the Supply/Demand dynamic, I am currently pondering.

[Torro]

Originally Posted by itsinusall

I believe the time of mass speculation in sports cards is dead, gone, and fondly remembered. Easy money has to stop at some time. Our US Government is paying interest on 33.6 Trillion in debt right now.

Not financial advice just a mind fart with toxicity for your eyes and mind. If you want to speculate with potential explosive returns may I suggest decentralized crypto currencies. Heck even buying a ASIC Miner may be a great Decision. That is the Supply/Demand dynamic, I am currently pondering.

Thanks for your feedback, im actually long term collector, not short term speculator/investor/flipper. Been collecting for 20 years and never sold any of my cards

Im not recommending sports card as investment to anyone, and I dont view my collection as investment, I just genuinely love this hobby and owning cards. For me its the best stress relief. What is also interesting for me is how the supply/demand on different markets work and the history behind it (how it got to where it is).