rwperu34's BCA Price Index, 2022 Final Edition

[rwperu34]

Headline Number

Headline number is down 46%. Eghad! Keep in mind there was a little runup prior to opening day of about 20%, so since mid April BCA prices have collapsed by over 50%. That is a bigger drop during the same time frame than even the craziness of 2021.

Nov 2017: 100
Nov 2018: 130
Nov 2019: 155
Nov 2020: 235
Nov 2021: 295
Nov 2022: 160

Note that we are barely above the November, 2019 price level. IIRC the market took an early turn upward that year, so the index probably hit 160 before New Year's.

"Class" Breakdown

Graduates (26 or older in 2022), -8%
Young MLB (25 and under), -58%
Prospects, -42%

It was the young MLB stars that took the biggest beating in a combination of lousy market and below par performance. Those prime aged players are carried by Judge, but still did better than the market as a whole even if I remove him...only down 28%. This makes sense since these are the players who have accomplished the most in their career.

Average Player

If I weight each player equally instead of by dollars they are only down 41%. This indicates that the lower end players performed better than high end. That is a first for this index.

Gainers and Losers

I count anything +/- 10% as a wash.

There were 5 gainers (with an asterisk, as you'll soon see), 59 losers, and 3 even.

The five gainers were; Judge, Carroll, Gallo*, Yordan, Bregman. J-Rod counted as a wash being up 9%.

*Gallo was insanely low volume with only 2 sales during the timeframe in both years. Last year they happened to be on the very low end, this year on the very high end. He is not really up 50% and is in fact more likely down more than 50%. I'm not in the habit of putting in my opinion on this though, so the number is what it is.

The biggest % losers at down 70% or more; Jordan Groshans (a whopping 82% loss on normal volume!), Kelenic, Torkelson, Jesus Sanchez, Keibert Ruiz, Gavin Lux, LouBob.

The median player was down 55%, a little more than the market overall. This is typical.

Biggest $ gainers were Judge (by a wide, wide margin), Yordan, then Carroll and J-Rod tied for 4th.

The biggest $ losers (cover your eyes);

Over $1000-Soto, Tatis Acuna
Between $500-$999-Vlad, Wander, LouBob
Between $250-$499-Torkelson, Witt, Luciano, Betts, Greene

To put this in perspective;
Over $100 gains, 1
Over $100 lost, 24

To put the seasons of Judge, Yordan, and Corbin Carroll into perspective, this is how they performed relative to the market;

Judge is up 4.7x
Carroll is up 3.0x
Yordan is up 2.7x
Bregman and J-Rod right around 2x.

That is a normal number of double ups relative to the market, with the difference being this year that put them barely above even.

Volume

I don't really track volume. The only thing is if they don't have enough sales during the time period that I'm pulling prices, I make a notation. There were more notations this year compared to last, and last year was probably more than the entire rest of the index's history. Volume was way, way down last offseason and it has fallen even farther this offseason.

[HRderby22]

Wow! Great information and thanks for sharing.

[LVDan]

It doesn’t seem like we’re all going to Sizzler for dinner this year.

[Rememberthepast]

This is such a great perspective of the hobby, even if it’s a narrow section of all the different types of cards out there. It would be interesting to know how their base 1st Chromes compare as well.

[5429]

Kind of tracks the stock market. I think a bunch of tech stocks peaked in Nov 21.

[gabballplayer14]

To put into "investing" perspective, the S&P 500 is down 16% YTD, DJIA down 7%, NASDAQ down 29%.

So yeah, cards are not safer "investments" than the stock market (for that crowd).

[hammertime]

Originally Posted by gabballplayer14

To put into "investing" perspective, the S&P 500 is down 16% YTD, DJIA down 7%, NASDAQ down 29%.

So yeah, cards are not safer "investments" than the stock market (for that crowd).

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but to be fair "cards" encompass a lot more than the modern BCA market.

[seanrs1]

So what your saying is that bought high and I am a current bag holder on all my cards! I do not collect any of the 5 gainers!

[Goldie]

2 sales in a time period doesn't mean a player is up, it means those "investments" likely aren't liquid and shouldn't be counted in any discussion of market value. I like the posts, but even for a Gallo pump person that's a stretch, wouldn't you say?

[gabballplayer14]

Originally Posted by hammertime

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but to be fair "cards" encompass a lot more than the modern BCA market.

Agreed, just making the comparison to the subject of this thread.

If you looked at random high volume, non-BCA cards, I'm sure the numbers would be much more in line with the OP's calculations than the stock market.

[hammertime]

Originally Posted by gabballplayer14

Agreed, just making the comparison to the subject of this thread.

If you looked at random high volume, non-BCA cards, I'm sure the numbers would be much more in line with the OP's calculations than the stock market.

You're probably right...I was thinking more pre-war and vintage HOFers. T206s are still MASSIVELY up compared to pre-boom.

[StateEx]

Really enjoy your insights -- thanks for sharing!

It'd be interesting if you had a baseline number that excluded performance. I suppose you could do that by adding some vintage to your tracker where performance is already in the books.

[speedyjg13]

Where was Trout on this? What did his 2022 look like?

[TooManyCards76]

So 2019 was the first real jump in pricing for Bowman wax (from 2010-2018 it was fairly stable, 2010 was another jump year with the Strasburg hype compared to 2009). I remember Bowman Jumbo’s being $350+ out of the gate and just went from there, Bowman Chrome I think was $175 for 2 mini-boxes, and Bowman Draft Jumbo’s were $325+ (release day price, not preorder pricing).

Today it’s…
- Bowman Jumbo were $500 (I don’t really remember, first time I didn’t by at least a few Jumbos due to price)
- Bowman Chrome 2x Mini Box are $270
- Bowman Draft Jumbo $450??

So increases of 43%, 54%, 38%… it’s even worse if you compare preorder pricing.

Add in QC issues, print run up minimum 50%, I haven’t kept track but I’d really be surprised if it wasn’t over 100% increase, auto subjects watered down, more parallels added but with QC issues did they really add any value?

This will be my first year I won’t buy Bowman Draft since 2009, and i will have gone over 18 months not buying any jumbo boxes. What’s the point, I can spend $500 on a top end refractor or I can spend $500 and have a 75% chance of watching it turn into $100 or less.

Thank you for this index, it solidified my thoughts on buying bowman wax anymore


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by LVDan

It doesn’t seem like we’re all going to Sizzler for dinner this year.

Disagree. We're eating at Sizzler instead of Ruth's Chris

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Rememberthepast

This is such a great perspective of the hobby, even if it’s a narrow section of all the different types of cards out there. It would be interesting to know how their base 1st Chromes compare as well.

It has been my experience that the 1st chrome and refractors follow along fairly closely to the BCA Index. Flagship and Chrome RC too outside of the insanity of 2020-2021.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Goldie

2 sales in a time period doesn't mean a player is up, it means those "investments" likely aren't liquid and shouldn't be counted in any discussion of market value. I like the posts, but even for a Gallo pump person that's a stretch, wouldn't you say?

I agree and even said so in my post.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by gabballplayer14

Agreed, just making the comparison to the subject of this thread.

If you looked at random high volume, non-BCA cards, I'm sure the numbers would be much more in line with the OP's calculations than the stock market.

At one point we were talking about the Trout Update PSA 10 and it was right in line with the BCA Index.

Originally Posted by speedyjg13

Where was Trout on this? What did his 2022 look like?

Trout got dropped last year due to ZERO sales. This is a pretty normal arc for a player. The older, more expensive players have way, way less volume. I'm going to drop a bunch of the older players this year too and replace them with younger, higher volume players.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by TooManyCards76

So 2019 was the first real jump in pricing for Bowman wax (from 2010-2018 it was fairly stable, 2010 was another jump year with the Strasburg hype compared to 2009). I remember Bowman Jumbo’s being $350+ out of the gate and just went from there, Bowman Chrome I think was $175 for 2 mini-boxes, and Bowman Draft Jumbo’s were $325+ (release day price, not preorder pricing).

Today it’s…
- Bowman Jumbo were $500 (I don’t really remember, first time I didn’t by at least a few Jumbos due to price)
- Bowman Chrome 2x Mini Box are $270
- Bowman Draft Jumbo $450??

So increases of 43%, 54%, 38%… it’s even worse if you compare preorder pricing.

Add in QC issues, print run up minimum 50%, I haven’t kept track but I’d really be surprised if it wasn’t over 100% increase, auto subjects watered down, more parallels added but with QC issues did they really add any value?

This will be my first year I won’t buy Bowman Draft since 2009, and i will have gone over 18 months not buying any jumbo boxes. What’s the point, I can spend $500 on a top end refractor or I can spend $500 and have a 75% chance of watching it turn into $100 or less.

Thank you for this index, it solidified my thoughts on buying bowman wax anymore


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The only unopened I can attest to is Draft. It has followed fairly closely to the BCA Index.

In 2017 it was $1000 preorder, the same as 2016. The market had missed the ridiculous gains in BCA over that time and the quality of the checklist, so it exploded up to $1750 the first week and kept rising from there.

If you take that $1750 and multiply by 1.6, you get $2800. That's why I say the $3400 presale price is not terrible. It will probably go down, but not get crushed, after release. It's likely that the base is worth more too....due to more guys being "above the line", not that the higher end has outpaced BCA.

[rwperu34]

I meant to link this article in the OP. It talks about how difficult it is to value free agent signings. A lot of the same concepts apply to BCA and sports cards in general.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/open-market-musings/

[msac904]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I meant to link this article in the OP. It talks about how difficult it is to value free agent signings. A lot of the same concepts apply to BCA and sports cards in general.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/open-market-musings/

Great thread.. thanks for the info!

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by LVDan

It doesn’t seem like we’re all going to Sizzler for dinner this year.

More like White Castle, being driven in the back of our Aunt’s 1984 K Car

[fabiani12333]

Interesting information -- thanks for taking the time to put it together and post about it.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by msac904

Great thread.. thanks for the info!

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Interesting information -- thanks for taking the time to put it together and post about it.

Thank you for the kind words.

I've updated it for Opening Day in this thread. I'm going to update it again when I get back around May 10.