The Takers Are Going To Take Over

[rwperu34]

As I watched Corbin Carroll take 16 straight pitches in a minor league game, I was thinking about the proliferation of walks among the top prospects. I came to the conclusion that players who take pitches are going to take over baseball.

Carroll is at 14.6% walks for the 2022 season. Back in the day I would punish a minor leaguer for walking that much. By back in the day, I mean 2019. Gunnar Henderson is over 15%. The top 5 position prospects on MLB.com are all at 10.9% or higher. Most of them are combining it with high K rates. So many guys up and down the list are trading average for walks, strikeouts, and damage. That's something you don't mind in The Show, but in the minors it is a red flag. Or it used to be a red flag.

So what has happened over the last few years? Data happened. It has been found out that major league hitters swing too often. This is true for every hitter, in every count (although the degree differs). The ideal swing rate is somewhere between how often they swing now and half that much. This information is available to prospects, so they start to focus on it earlier. Instead of learning it in the majors, they are learning it before they get to the majors (much like launch angle). This is just another area where prospects are going to be better prepared to have success at a younger age than their predecessors.

As I comb through the stats to make my list, this will create a challenge for me. Higher K-rates? Higher ISO? More bombs? No problem. I just adjust the line upwards. Not so with the walks. I will need to completely adjust how I think about them going forward.

[ThoseBackPages]

Buy Soto!

[imbluestreak23]

And Elly!

[rman112]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

As I watched Corbin Carroll take 16 straight pitches in a minor league game, I was thinking about the proliferation of walks among the top prospects. I came to the conclusion that players who take pitches are going to take over baseball.

Carroll is at 14.6% walks for the 2022 season. Back in the day I would punish a minor leaguer for walking that much. By back in the day, I mean 2019. Gunnar Henderson is over 15%. The top 5 position prospects on MLB.com are all at 10.9% or higher. Most of them are combining it with high K rates. So many guys up and down the list are trading average for walks, strikeouts, and damage. That's something you don't mind in The Show, but in the minors it is a red flag. Or it used to be a red flag.

So what has happened over the last few years? Data happened. It has been found out that major league hitters swing too often. This is true for every hitter, in every count (although the degree differs). The ideal swing rate is somewhere between how often they swing now and half that much. This information is available to prospects, so they start to focus on it earlier. Instead of learning it in the majors, they are learning it before they get to the majors (much like launch angle). This is just another area where prospects are going to be better prepared to have success at a younger age than their predecessors.

As I comb through the stats to make my list, this will create a challenge for me. Higher K-rates? Higher ISO? More bombs? No problem. I just adjust the line upwards. Not so with the walks. I will need to completely adjust how I think about them going forward.

[kingofsnake]

Corbin Carroll 30K

[tobytyler]

Adael Amador

[oldgoldy97]

I don’t know how I’ll sleep tonight.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

As I watched Corbin Carroll take 16 straight pitches in a minor league game, I was thinking about the proliferation of walks among the top prospects. I came to the conclusion that players who take pitches are going to take over baseball.

Carroll is at 14.6% walks for the 2022 season. Back in the day I would punish a minor leaguer for walking that much. By back in the day, I mean 2019. Gunnar Henderson is over 15%. The top 5 position prospects on MLB.com are all at 10.9% or higher. Most of them are combining it with high K rates. So many guys up and down the list are trading average for walks, strikeouts, and damage. That's something you don't mind in The Show, but in the minors it is a red flag. Or it used to be a red flag.

So what has happened over the last few years? Data happened. It has been found out that major league hitters swing too often. This is true for every hitter, in every count (although the degree differs). The ideal swing rate is somewhere between how often they swing now and half that much. This information is available to prospects, so they start to focus on it earlier. Instead of learning it in the majors, they are learning it before they get to the majors (much like launch angle). This is just another area where prospects are going to be better prepared to have success at a younger age than their predecessors.

As I comb through the stats to make my list, this will create a challenge for me. Higher K-rates? Higher ISO? More bombs? No problem. I just adjust the line upwards. Not so with the walks. I will need to completely adjust how I think about them going forward.

Well.....if pitchers could throw three consecutive strikes, then hitters wouldn't be able to be quite as patient.

Against guys like Greg Maddux, you were in an 0-2 hole if you didn't swing at either of the first two pitches (and often even if you did).

[no10pin]

Joey Votto likes this post

[ewokpelts]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Well.....if pitchers could throw three consecutive strikes, then hitters wouldn't be able to be quite as patient.

Against guys like Greg Maddux, you were in an 0-2 hole if you didn't swing at either of the first two pitches (and often even if you did).

In the age of everyone throwing as hard and fast as they can, control of your pitches beComes an issue. Maddux was “slower” but had excellent control.

[towerymt]

Reminds me of Yoan Moncada, king of the called third strike. '18 to '19, he cut his walk rate and K rate. He chased out of the zone more in '19 and he swung and missed more (higher swinging strike%), but still managed to cut his K%. He was too passive in '18 and I believe led the league in K's looking.

I like how there are so many ways to be successful as a hitter in baseball. Makes the analysis challenging.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

And Elly!

Two problems with this one;

1) I assume you've already bought up and graded all the gems.

2) I have to exclude so many words when searching past sales it makes it takes so much extra effort to price check.

That said, I picked up a couple Elly and Chourio mojo refractors today.

[ucLAkers]

Originally Posted by no10pin

Joey Votto likes this post

So does Muncy

[fabiani12333]

Actually, I was looking at the numbers and MLB hitters are swinging more now than before. They are swinging more on first pitches, too. The pitches per plate appearance is slightly higher I think because swings-and-misses are higher. The walk rate is similar, too.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Actually, I was looking at the numbers and MLB hitters are swinging more now than before. They are swinging more on first pitches, too. The pitches per plate appearance is slightly higher I think because swings-and-misses are higher. The walk rate is similar, too.

Well isn't that interesting. Any idea whether pitchers are giving more hittable pitches this year, especially on the 1st pitch? Or are we possibly looking at a one off for minor league walks among top prospects?

There is no doubt these prospects have big swing and miss rates too...as evidenced by uptick in K%.

One thing about leaguewide walk rate...it tends to regress toward a mean of about 8.5% and is fairly stable from year to year.

[cardinalsooner]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Well.....if pitchers could throw three consecutive strikes, then hitters wouldn't be able to be quite as patient.

Against guys like Greg Maddux, you were in an 0-2 hole if you didn't swing at either of the first two pitches (and often even if you did).

yep, I believe the biggest problem in the game is pitchers can't throw strikes... ..way too much imphasis trying to throw 102 instead of being able to put the ball where you want it.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Well isn't that interesting. Any idea whether pitchers are giving more hittable pitches this year, especially on the 1st pitch? Or are we possibly looking at a one off for minor league walks among top prospects?

There is no doubt these prospects have big swing and miss rates too...as evidenced by uptick in K%.

One thing about leaguewide walk rate...it tends to regress toward a mean of about 8.5% and is fairly stable from year to year.

Swing rate has steadily gone up over the last decade:

Swing rate:
2010: 44.9%
2022: 47.6%

1st pitch swing rate:
2010: 26%
2022: 30.7%

Strike zone data differs among sources. Percentage of pitches over the heart of the plate on 1st pitch are basically the same since 2015 -- 28.7%.

[VandyCards]

I do think a data-led approach has had an effect on walk-rates (and id just say as a quick caveat, taking more pitches also means more Ks). But I also think that changes in how guys pitch has had a (potentially more) significant effect.

Guys don’t pitch to contact anymore. This manifests in throwing chase pitches and throwing to “spots” that often are borderline pitches. So for guys who are patient hitters, there are more pitches to not swing at.

I don’t think players base their approaches on stat lines, but it is worth noting that OPS has become a pretty standard metric now, even among the analytically disinclined. An issue with that stat is that it weights a point of OBP equally to a point of slugging. And this is clearly not accurate. But, a good way to have a good OPS is to take walks.

I think stat line scouting, especially below AA, is a mistake. But when I’m trying to look at numbers and determine if a guy is passive/a taker, versus a selective hitter, is looking at whether he has a high K rate in addition to high walk rate (assuming he has good batted ball stats, of course). If a guy has good batted ball stats, high walk, low K, that to me indicates he may just have a good eye and be up there hunting for his pitch. If a guy has a high K rate, that to me indicates a guy whose approach is to take pitches.

A low walk rate for guys like Elly and Chourio isn’t inherently concerning. But it does indicate that they are up there to swing first, swing second, and swing third if they’re still in the box. This approach leaves open more questions about pitch selection, and absent charting games we can’t really see what they are/are not swinging at.

I generally do like guys who swing a lot. They are more fun to watch. They’re also a riskier class of hitting prospect, I think.


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[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by cardinalsooner

yep, I believe the biggest problem in the game is pitchers can't throw strikes... ..way too much imphasis trying to throw 102 instead of being able to put the ball where you want it.

I wonder which is more important - velocity or command?

[JoshMN]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

I wonder which is more important - velocity or command?

I was thinking the same thing. Someone should start a thread just on that!

[base set]

Meanwhile, on the horizon, the robot umpires are watching these “takers”

Fidget with the stitches on the ball? Nah, future MLB could just give the robot new instructions. Then we’ll see about all those takers.

[SupermanBrandon]

WAR is how I determine greatness. Walks are for losers that can’t hit dingers.


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[pewe]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

WAR is how I determine greatness. Walks are for losers that can’t hit dingers.


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If one player hits HR in 5% of at bats (30-35/year), and walks 5%…

And other hits a HR in 2% (15/yr), and walks 15%…

Which generates more WAR???


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[coachnip13]

Originally Posted by pewe

If one player hits HR in 5% of at bats (30-35/year), and walks 5%…

And other hits a HR in 2% (15/yr), and walks 15%…

Which generates more WAR???

If we have our priorities right, we put the second guy in front of the first guy in the lineup and don't worry about whose WAR is better.

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by coachnip13

If we have our priorities right, we put the second guy in front of the first guy in the lineup and don't worry about whose WAR is better.

That’s called playing baseball. Don’t bring that crap in here.


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