marterburn's 2022 Bowman Checklist review

[marterburn]

We decided to break it up into 3 parts on P1500, and parts 1 & 2 (AL & NL base set subjects) are there now.

Part 1 (AL base set): https://www.prospects1500.com/baseba...review-part-1/
Part 2 (NL base set): https://www.prospects1500.com/baseba...review-part-2/
Part 3 (Auto-only subjects): https://www.prospects1500.com/baseba...review-part-3/

For the sake of discussion, I've got all my risk/ceiling assessments listed below -- the writeups are on the site (may vary slightly, this is copied form my excel doc that was my 1st draft). The levels are also updated in the writeup on the site -- the levels here are from 2021.

I will update this post when parts 2 & 3 come out.

Darell Hernaiz, Baltimore Orioles , 20, SS, Low-A
Risk 9
Ceiling 4

Luis Gonzalez, Baltimore Orioles , 19, OF, CPX
Risk 10
Ceiling 3

Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox, 22, RHP, AA
Risk 2
Ceiling 6

Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox, 21, OF/IF, Low-A
Risk 7
Ceiling 4

Niko Kavadas, Boston Red Sox, 23, 1B, Low-A
Risk 8
Ceiling 4

Eduardo Lopez, Boston Red Sox, 19, OF, Low-A
Risk 10
Ceiling 2

Norge Vera, Chicago White Sox, 21, RHP, DSL
Risk 10
Ceiling 4-6

Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox, 20, SS, CPX
Risk 8
Ceiling 9

Misael Gonzalez, Chicago White Sox, 20, OF, CPX
Risk 10
Ceiling 5

Benyamin Bailey, Chicago White Sox, 20, OF, Low-A
Risk 10
Ceiling 4

Lenyn Sosa, Chicago White Sox, 22, SS, AA
Risk 5
Ceiling 3

Elijah Tatis, Chicago White Sox, 20, SS, CPX
Risk 10
Ceiling 2

George Valera, Cleveland Guardians , 21, OF, AA
Risk 3
Ceiling 10

Jhonkensy Noel, Cleveland Guardians , 20, 3B/1B, High-A
Risk 6
Ceiling 9

Fran Alduey, Cleveland Guardians , 18, SS, DSL
Risk 10
Ceiling 6

Junior Sanquintin, Cleveland Guardians , 20, 1B/3B, CPX
Risk 9
Ceiling 5

Jose Pastrano, Cleveland Guardians , 19, IF, CPX
Risk 10
Ceiling 2

Roberto Campos, Detroit Tigers , 18, OF, CPX
Risk 9
Ceiling 7

Dauri Lorenzo, Houston Astros , 19, IF, CPX
Risk 10
Ceiling 4

Will Wagner, Houston Astros , 23, IF, Low-A
Risk 8
Ceiling 3

Peyton Wilson, Kansas City Royals, 22, 2B, Low-A
Risk 8
Ceiling 4

Luca Tresh, Kansas City Royals, 22, C, Low-A
Risk 8
Ceiling 4

Denzer Guzman, Los Angeles Angels, 18, SS, DSL
Risk 10
Ceiling 8

Edgar Quero, Los Angeles Angels, 18, C, Low-A
Risk 8
Ceiling 3

Carlos Aguiar, Minnesota Twins , 20, OF, CPX
Risk 10
Ceiling 3

Trey Sweeney, New York Yankees, 21, SS, Low-A
Risk 7
Ceiling 10

Oswaldo Cabrera, New York Yankees, 23, IF, AAA
Risk 2
Ceiling 5

Fidel Montero, New York Yankees, 18, OF, DSL
Risk 10
Ceiling 5

Max Muncy, Oakland Athletics , 19, SS, CPX
Risk 9
Ceiling 7

Jonatan Clase, Seattle Mariners , 19, OF, DSL
Risk 9
Ceiling 6

Victor Labrada, Seattle Mariners , 22, OF, High-A
Risk 7
Ceiling 4

Curtis Mead, Tampa Bay Rays, 21, 3B/1B, High-A
Risk 5
Ceiling 8

Alejandro Pie, Tampa Bay Rays, 20, 3B, CPX
Risk 10
Ceiling 2

Dustin Harris, Texas Rangers , 22, 1B, High-A
Risk 4
Ceiling 9

Jose Rodriguez, Texas Rangers , 20, OF/1B, Low-A
Risk 10
Ceiling 2

Martin Gimenez, Toronto Blue Jays, 18, 3B, DSL
Risk 10
Ceiling 4-6

Estiven Machado, Toronto Blue Jays, 19, 2B, CPX
Risk 10
Ceiling 3-5

Samad Taylor, Toronto Blue Jays, 23, OF, AA
Risk 5
Ceiling 5

Alvin Guzman, Arizona Diamondbacks , 20, OF, CPX
Risk 10
Ceiling 5

Luke Waddell, Atlanta Braves , 23, SS/3B, AA
Risk 4
Ceiling 3

Mahki Backstrom, Atlanta Braves , 20, 1B, CPX
Risk 10
Ceiling 3

Ronnier Quintero, Chicago Cubs , 19, C, CPX
Risk 10
Ceiling 4-6

Luis Verdugo, Chicago Cubs , 21, INF, Low-A
Risk 10
Ceiling 2

Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds , 20, 3B/SS, Low-A
Risk 8
Ceiling 10

Justice Thompson, Cincinnati Reds , 21, OF, Low-A
Risk 8
Ceiling 7

Braylin Minier, Cincinnati Reds , 18, SS, CPX
Risk 8
Ceiling 5

Allan Cerda, Cincinnati Reds , 22, OF, High-A
Risk 7
Ceiling 5

Christian Roa, Cincinnati Reds , 23, RHP, High-A
Risk 6
Ceiling 4

Michel Triana, Cincinnati Reds , 22, 1B, Low-A
Risk 9
Ceiling 2

Warming Bernabel, Colorado Rockies , 19, 3B, Low-A
Risk 6
Ceiling 7

Robby Martin Jr, Colorado Rockies , 22, OF, Low-A
Risk 8
Ceiling 5

Jose Ramos, Los Angeles Dodgers, 21, OF, Low-A
Risk 8
Ceiling 8

Eddys Leonard, Los Angeles Dodgers, 21, INF/OF, High-A
Risk 5
Ceiling 7

Jorbit Vivas, Los Angeles Dodgers, 21, 3B, High-A
Risk 5
Ceiling 5

Junior Sanchez, Miami Marlins , 19, SS, none
Risk 10
Ceiling 4-6

Kahlil Watson, Miami Marlins , 18, SS, CPX
Risk 7
Ceiling 9

Ian Lewis, Miami Marlins , 19, 2B, CPX
Risk 8
Ceiling 7

Brady Allen, Miami Marlins , 22, OF, NCAA
Risk 7
Ceiling 4

Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee Brewers , 18, OF, DSL
Risk 9
Ceiling 8

Hendry Mendez, Milwaukee Brewers , 18, OF, CPX
Risk 7
Ceiling 7

Felix Valerio, Milwaukee Brewers , 21, 2B, High-A
Risk 5
Ceiling 6

Jheremy Vargas, Milwaukee Brewers , 18, SS/3B, CPX
Risk 8
Ceiling 4

Branlyn Jaraba, Milwaukee Brewers , 20, 3B, CPX
Risk 10
Ceiling 1

Robert Dominguez, New York Mets, 20, RHP, CPX
Risk 10
Ceiling 4-6

Yhoswar Garcia, Philadelphia Phillies , 20, OF, Low-A
Risk 9
Ceiling 4-6

Logan Cerny, Philadelphia Phillies , 22, OF, Low-A
Risk 8
Ceiling 5

Simon Muzziotti, Philadelphia Phillies , 23, OF, AAA
Risk 2
Ceiling 3

Maikol Escotto, Pittsburgh Pirates , 19, SS, Low-A
Risk 9
Ceiling 6

Dariel Lopez, Pittsburgh Pirates , 20, 3B/SS, Low-A
Risk 8
Ceiling 6

Rodolfo Nolasco, Pittsburgh Pirates , 20, OF, CPX
Risk 8
Ceiling 6

Jack Suwinski, Pittsburgh Pirates , 23, OF, AA
Risk 4
Ceiling 4

Matt Fraizer, Pittsburgh Pirates , 24, OF, AA
Risk 4
Ceiling 4

Zayed Salinas, San Diego Padres, 19, OF, CPX
Risk 10
Ceiling 4-6

Victor Lizarraga, San Diego Padres, 18, RHP, CPX
Risk 10
Ceiling 4-6

James Wood, San Diego Padres, 19, OF, CPX
Risk 10
Ceiling 9

Euribiel Angeles, San Diego Padres, 19, 3B/SS, High-A
Risk 5
Ceiling 4

Brandon Valenzuela, San Diego Padres, 21, C/1B, High-A
Risk 6
Ceiling 3

Aeverson Arteaga, San Francisco Giants, 19, SS, Low-A
Risk 7
Ceiling 7

Diego Rincones, San Francisco Giants, 22, OF, AA
Risk 6
Ceiling 6

Diego Velasquez, San Francisco Giants, 18, SS, CPX
Risk 10
Ceiling 5

Adrian Sugastey, San Francisco Giants, 19, C, CPX
Risk 9
Ceiling 4

Ricardo Genoves, San Francisco Giants, 22, C, AAA
Risk 6
Ceiling 3

Anthony Rodriguez, San Francisco Giants, 19, 3B, CPX
Risk 9
Ceiling 2

Joshua Baez, St. Louis Cardinals, 19, OF, CPX
Risk 10
Ceiling 7

Roismar Quintana, Washington Nationals , 19, OF, CPX
Risk 10
Ceiling 4-6

Andry Lara, Washington Nationals , 19, RHP, Low-A
Risk 8
Ceiling 6

Darren Baker, Washington Nationals , 23, 2B, Low-A
Risk 6
Ceiling 2

RETAIL AUTO ONLY

Enoy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox, 21, 2B, DSL (2021)
Risk 10
Ceiling 4

Franco Aleman, Cleveland Guardians , 21, RHP, Single-A
Risk 9
Ceiling 3

Mo Hanley, Los Angeles Angels, 21, RHP, NONE
Risk 10
Ceiling 2 - 4

Chase Silseth, Los Angeles Angels, 21, RHP, AA
Risk 7
Ceiling 5

Orlando Martinez, Los Angeles Angels, 24, OF, AA
Risk 6
Ceiling 3

Louie Varland, Minnesota Twins , 24, RHP, AA
Risk 5
Ceiling 5

Danny Watson, New York Yankees, 21, RHP, Single-A
Risk 9
Ceiling 3

Shane McGuire, Oakland Athletics , 23, C, Single-A
Risk 8
Ceiling 2

Nate Fassnacht, Philadelphia Phillies , 24, IF, RETIRED
Risk N/A
Ceiling 1

Jack Carey, Pittsburgh Pirates , 22, RHP, High-A
Risk 9
Ceiling 3

Henry Henry, San Diego Padres, 23, RHP, AA
Risk 7
Ceiling 2

Lucas Dunn, San Diego Padres, 22, 3B/1B, Single-A
Risk 8
Ceiling 3

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners , 22, RHP, College
Risk 10
Ceiling 3

Brendan Donovan, St. Louis Cardinals, 25, 3B/OF, MLB
Risk 1
Ceiling 4

Erik Ostberg, Tampa Bay Rays, 27, C, AA
Risk 7
Ceiling 3

Zach Logue, Toronto Blue Jays (now Oakland), 26, RHP, MLB
Risk 1
Ceiling 3

CHROME AUTO ONLY

Gavin Conticello, Arizona Diamondbacks , 18, 3B, ACL
Risk 10
Ceiling 5 - 7

Creed Willems, Baltimore Orioles , 18, C, FCL
Risk 10
Ceiling 4 - 6

Eduardo Vaughan, Boston Red Sox, 20, OF, Single-A
Risk 9
Ceiling 3

James Triantos, Chicago Cubs , 19, 3B, Single-A
Risk 8
Ceiling 9

Jordan Wicks, Chicago Cubs , 22, LHP, High-A
Risk 5
Ceiling 6

Pablo Aliendo, Chicago Cubs , 20, C, High-A
Risk 8
Ceiling 4

Yeison Santana, Chicago Cubs , 21, SS, Single-A
Risk 10
Ceiling 2

Oscar Colas, Chicago White Sox, 23, OF, High-A
Risk 7
Ceiling 6 - 8

Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds , 22, SS, AA
Risk 4
Ceiling 7

Yan Contreras, Cincinnati Reds , 21, SS, ACL (2019)
Risk 10
Ceiling 3 - 5

Jose Fermin, Cleveland Guardians , 23, 3B/2B, AAA
Risk 3
Ceiling 4

Tyler Whitaker, Houston Astros , 19, OF, Single-A
Risk 10
Ceiling 6

Cristian Gonzalez, Houston Astros , 20, SS, High-A
Risk 9
Ceiling 5

Dayton Dooney, Kansas City Royals, 22, 2B, ACL (2021)
Risk 9
Ceiling 3 - 5

Wilmin Candelario, Kansas City Royals, 20, SS, Low-A
Risk 10
Ceiling 6

Alejandro Hidalgo, Los Angeles Angels, 18, RHP, Single-A
Risk 9
Ceiling 4

Mason Albright, Los Angeles Angels, 19, LHP, Single-A
Risk 9
Ceiling 4

Federico Polanco, Miami Marlins , 21, 2B/1B, High-A
Risk 8
Ceiling 2

Larry Ernesto, Milwaukee Brewers , 21, OF, ACL (2021)
Risk 10
Ceiling 2

Bryan Acuna, Minnesota Twins , 17, SS, None
Risk 10
Ceiling 5 - 7

Tyler Hardman, New York Yankees, 23, 3B/1B, High-A
Risk 8
Ceiling 4

Randy Vasquez, New York Yankees, 23, RHP, AA
Risk 6
Ceiling 5

Adam Macko, Seattle Mariners , 21, LHP, High-A
Risk 7
Ceiling 6

Juan Querecuto, Seattle Mariners , 21, RHP, Single-A (2021)
Risk 10
Ceiling 1

Elijah Cabell, St. Louis Cardinals, 22, OF, Single-A
Risk 10
Ceiling 5

Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays, 21, RHP, AA
Risk 6
Ceiling 8

Zion Bannister, Texas Rangers , 20, OF, ACL (2021)
Risk 10
Ceiling 5

Ronny Hernriquez, Texas Rangers (now Twins), 21, RHP, AAA
Risk 5
Ceiling 5

Damiano Palmegiani, Toronto Blue Jays, 22, 3B, Low-A
Risk 8
Ceiling 6

[cardsin47]

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[marterburn]

Part two is up! Names are pasted into the OP.

[cardsin47]

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[fordcollector]

when will the actual checklist come out?

[marterburn]

Originally Posted by fordcollector

when will the actual checklist come out?

Probably late next week, but this is Topps we're talking about here.

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[MiamiMarlinsFan]

A 9 for my buy Watson, huh? It’s crazy that he fell so low in the draft. I wanted the Marlins to get him, but didn’t think we had a shot with the 14th pick.

[OneSickDegen]

I wish your website had an email subscription feature so I'd get a notification when a new article is posted.

It's a great resource

[scon0072]

Excellent content. Thank you!


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[marterburn]

Updated OP with the auto-only guys! Part 3 was posted to P1500 on Sunday (been a busy few days for me).

[jbyanks1]

Thanks for this information! It's been very helpful in getting to know the players in this product.

[THammers]

Sorry if I missed it somewhere but is Risk a Lower is Better metric or Higher is Better. Thanks for doing this.

[marterburn]

Originally Posted by THammers

Sorry if I missed it somewhere but is Risk a Lower is Better metric or Higher is Better. Thanks for doing this.

Risk is tied mostly tied to level, and secondarily how how well the player is doing at the level (a bump of 1-2 either way). So DSL guys are inherently 9-10 risk.

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[THammers]

Originally Posted by marterburn

Risk is tied mostly tied to level, and secondarily how how well the player is doing at the level (a bump of 1-2 either way). So DSL guys are inherently 9-10 risk.

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Got it. So lower is better on this one. The best prospects in the list would be those whose ceiling is high and risk is low.

[FuriousD82]

Thank you!

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

I think you had Kahlil Watson’s risk too low

[jutt]

What about Tyler Esplin?

[Soxfan30]

Are you doing this type of analysis for 2022 Bowman Chrome?

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

I think you had Kahlil Watson’s risk too low

Boy, I wasn’t wrong about that… ugh.

[marterburn]

Originally Posted by Soxfan30

Are you doing this type of analysis for 2022 Bowman Chrome?

Yes. NL is in the bucket to get published at Prospects1500.

AL I have ~15 left to go, but should be in the bucket Tuesday-ish.

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Boy, I wasn’t wrong about that… ugh.

:cringe emoji: