Get ready for higher vintage prices

[discodanman45]

Sports Card Investor just released a video about buying vintage. Jabs is buying vintage now. I am getting beat on most auctions now trying to get Hank Aaron cards. Not looking forward to the next few months.

The amount of ultra-modern and modern collectors who were burned during the early 2021 spike are now getting into "safer" investments. As a collector I am not happy about this. Vintage will likely be doubling IMO during this quarter. I am back on COMC buying cards for my Rik Smits PC. Need to wait this out like last year's first quarter insanity on junk wax.

[oplum29]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Sports Card Investor just released a video about buying vintage. Jabs is buying vintage now. I am getting beat on most auctions now trying to get Hank Aaron cards. Not looking forward to the next few months.

The amount of ultra-modern and modern collectors who were burned during the early 2021 spike are now getting into "safer" investments. As a collector I am not happy about this. Vintage will likely be doubling IMO during this quarter. I am back on COMC buying cards for my Rik Smits PC. Need to wait this out like last year's first quarter insanity on junk wax.

got a link to the video?

vintage is the way to go....just picked up a couple of JohnnyU cards myself!

[Gustomania]

I do think you have to take it with a grain of salt.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=x8CCj2QSJw0

I think when you compare ultra modern base cards to vintage or modern it really is apples to oranges. I mean does anyone really expect to see ultra modern base cards of any player that probably has 100,000 base card PSA 10s in various brands to hold overall to a vintage PSA RC where that’s the only card of a player and maybe the POP count of those players for PSA 6 and above is 5,000 total or less. So when he compares base cards of ultra modern players and only 2 of 25 have increased its misleading. I think you do have to comp rarer versions of these players to really drill into actual fair comparisons.

I would say directionally it’s good advice that vintage is a much better long term hold, but ultra modern is high risk high reward and more short term investments in general.

For example, Soto has been hot and many on these boards are selling base PSA 10s so they can consolidate into a lowere POP card. I would expect the lower POP cards do fair better overall if Soto continues to be great given the super high POP counts of his base cards.

I think also you have to realize these comparisons appear to be happening in January during off-season and ultra modern does seem to be impacted more during these times. I’m betting these comparisons change quit a bit if we do this in May.

That being said I love his tips and advice, I believe in a recent video he said he expects key 80s cards to take off as people who grew up in that era have less interest in guys like Mantle and more interest in key high grade cards of Henderson, Ripken, Gwynn, etc etc

I do think it’s sound advice if you happen to look at this as an investment, but many of us are simply just collectors.

[VanLingoMungo46]

Well, I wouldn't be complaining if vintage prices doubled this quarter, but I don't see it.

It took a while for vintage to level off from the February 2021 craze. I have seen some slight lift in the market this month, as a few people seem to have made New Years resolutions to buy vintage, along with Omicron keeping a lot of people from spending $ on restaurants, etc. And the utterly crappy January weather half the country has to deal with keeping people at home and surfing eBay.

Potential MLB lock-out looming. I don't see it hurting vintage that much, but it probably won't help either. I doubt the video you are describing will move the market that much.

[hauntedcomputer]

I see "opportunity" (if that's the thing you are into) in those $20-50 graded cards of stars that are cheaper in the slab today than it would cost to buy and grade yourself. Especially if grading is allegedly getting stricter.

My main takeaway is that cards are terrible "investments" so you better buy only what you like.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by hauntedcomputer

My main takeaway is that cards are terrible "investments" so you better buy only what you like.

100% agree. In the beginning of 2021, I stopped buying grading cards for about 6 months. The prices were insane. I put all my spending money into raw vintage, which I did very well at. Right now, the speculators are going hard on eBay for raw vintage. So many more people I am competing with right now for Aaron cards.

My doubling scenario may be overstated, but I am seeing signs of the vintage market strengthening and junk wax/modern declining. I am just sick and tired of these "investors" manipulating the market. This roller coaster thing is annoying.

[k13]

Of course he never showed modern/vintage hockey.

Modern hockey is up big compared to the other 3 sports.

[oplum29]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Sports Card Investor just released a video about buying vintage. Jabs is buying vintage now. I am getting beat on most auctions now trying to get Hank Aaron cards. Not looking forward to the next few months.

The amount of ultra-modern and modern collectors who were burned during the early 2021 spike are now getting into "safer" investments. As a collector I am not happy about this. Vintage will likely be doubling IMO during this quarter. I am back on COMC buying cards for my Rik Smits PC. Need to wait this out like last year's first quarter insanity on junk wax.

these ultra-modern stuff is more for the quick-flips and are higher risk/rewards. vintage is just more steady, but i don't think you can really except a sudden cash boom like we got during the pandemic in 2020.

[SpartanWarrior]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

100% agree. In the beginning of 2021, I stopped buying grading cards for about 6 months. The prices were insane. I put all my spending money into raw vintage, which I did very well at. Right now, the speculators are going hard on eBay for raw vintage. So many more people I am competing with right now for Aaron cards.

My doubling scenario may be overstated, but I am seeing signs of the vintage market strengthening and junk wax/modern declining. I am just sick and tired of these "investors" manipulating the market. This roller coaster thing is annoying.

-------------------------

Same thing happened in the late 80's into the early 90's. Vintage prices skyrocketed. Then what happened?

Recession in 91 led to a lot of people cutting back on their collecting/speculating. Card companies were producing so much product it was being sold in gas stations. Card shows were everywhere. And within 2-3 years dealers were sitting at shows watching the clock go tick tick tick with no customers. People looked to dump their cards when they realized prices didn't go up 20% a month. Dealers started going out of business. Auction houses were flooded with material. And prices declined across the board.

How many people do you believe REALLY want a Warren Spahn 1950 Bowman card?

[mizzoujohn]

Tons of newbies trying to decipher between a VG, EX, and EX-MT ‘59 Topps. Oy vey. The trimmers and recolor artists are going to have a field day.

[VanLingoMungo46]

If you really think vintage cards are going to go up this quarter then isn't now the time to buy?

[thenightman]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Sports Card Investor just released a video about buying vintage. Jabs is buying vintage now. I am getting beat on most auctions now trying to get Hank Aaron cards. Not looking forward to the next few months.

The amount of ultra-modern and modern collectors who were burned during the early 2021 spike are now getting into "safer" investments. As a collector I am not happy about this. Vintage will likely be doubling IMO during this quarter. I am back on COMC buying cards for my Rik Smits PC. Need to wait this out like last year's first quarter insanity on junk wax.

Aaron prices have been high for a long while now. I was watching '50s era Aarons over 18 months ago, when they were reasonable and then one day they exploded. So, he's not the best example.

[Bingbong]

Boy I sure hope you’re right!!

[salas1991]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Sports Card Investor just released a video about buying vintage. Jabs is buying vintage now. I am getting beat on most auctions now trying to get Hank Aaron cards. Not looking forward to the next few months.

The amount of ultra-modern and modern collectors who were burned during the early 2021 spike are now getting into "safer" investments. As a collector I am not happy about this. Vintage will likely be doubling IMO during this quarter. I am back on COMC buying cards for my Rik Smits PC. Need to wait this out like last year's first quarter insanity on junk wax.

[hammertime]

The prewar stuff I've been tracking hasn't really dipped over the past year along with most everything else. Seems like it's just going to keep climbing...

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by hammertime

The prewar stuff I've been tracking hasn't really dipped over the past year along with most everything else. Seems like it's just going to keep climbing...

Whenever I see a decent price on a T206 or a 1933 Goudey HOF card, I am buying these days. I have a Carl Hubbell 1933 Goudey PSA 2 on its way right now. Hard to find this stuff right now. I find myself getting out of newer vintage and going further back. I think the T206 and 1933 Goudey's are way better buys right now. Looking to get a T205 cards as well.

[Doctor Claw]

What is a Jabs or Sports Card Investor? If they are new jack social media modern flipper types, they won't know eye appeal or centering if it bit them in the ass, so let them buy up holders while the rest of us buy the pretty cards.

[nman84]

SCI just put out a top 10 vintage card video and I saw another YouTube channel put a vintage video a few days ago. Must be the new flavor of the week. I don’t expect prices to boom but I do expect to be paying a little more for some of the stuff I’m targeting.

[Giroux]

Originally Posted by nman84

SCI just put out a top 10 vintage card video and I saw another YouTube channel put a vintage video a few days ago. Must be the new flavor of the week. I don’t expect prices to boom but I do expect to be paying a little more for some of the stuff I’m targeting.

I think SCI was taking criticism for ignoring vintage. Looks like he's trying to incorporate it more now.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by Giroux

I think SCI was taking criticism for ignoring vintage. Looks like he's trying to incorporate it more now.

Nobody in the hobby was criticizing SCI for ignoring vintage. He shouldn't be talking about a lot of things in the collecting world. My wife knows more about grading cards than he does from me talking about it and showing her cards. She could care less about the hobby. His 1988 Fleer pack fresh PSA grading fiasco was all I needed to see from him. He, along with his investors, blindly trust the grades on slabs and he turned off more people from the hobby by his pumping advice that caused many people to lose thousands of dollars, probably much more. The only advice people should take away from SCI is that when he talks about how awesome a card is, you should probably sell it immediately.

At this point in the hobby, anything that stays the same price is remarkable. The fiascos of GI Joe Pokémon, Harpo Marx Cards clown show, TL Kaboom scammers, and other nonsense in the hobby has turned a lot of people off. Since 2021 in March, everything has nosed dived except for vintage. We all know this and Geoff finally realized this about 10 months after everyone else. Nothing else left to pump in the market, so he probably bought PSA high graded versions of these cards 2 months ago to pump and dump to try to recoup with $300,000 he lost from buying a 1986 Fleer Jordan.

The only people I trust in this hobby right now are people that are straight shooters, which many people here think are bad for the hobby because they don't poop rainbows and say how all of their cards will shoot to the moon. Sports Card Radio, Rattle, and Because I'm Carlos have been very consistent with their messages. However, they are grilled by many people about how they are haters and want the hobby to fail. They are just stating facts with sarcasm, which pisses people off.

Get ready to see lots of PSA vintage sales of cards none of us would ever touch because of horrific eye appeal. Can't wait to see a 1957 Ted Williams posted on eBay stating it is "pack fresh" and a fire emoji next to it.

[Giroux]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Nobody in the hobby was criticizing SCI for ignoring vintage.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tdgTeuqW9r4&t=876s



As for the rest of your post, I think you need to relax a bit.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by Giroux

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tdgTeuqW9r4&t=876s



As for the rest of your post, I think you need to relax a bit.

Don't need to relax at all. SCI is an absolute idiot and caused many people to lose a tremendous amount of money with his "investing" advice. He may seem like a "good guy," but the truth is he is using his platform irresponsibly and he gave a lot of advice which ruined people's lives financially. I have only been back into the hobby for about 2 years and I even knew it was beanie baby's territory in early 2021. I switched over from all junk wax era cards and focused on vintage, selling PSA slabbed junk wax era cards like Shaq for huge profits. People like Geoff may seem harmless, but people see a successful rich guy and follow their leader's actions. His advice has created more bankruptcies, divorces, and people losing their entire retirement. The dude knows what he is doing and he in part helped create the stupidity in this hobby.

[Giroux]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

I switched over from all junk wax era cards and focused on vintage, selling PSA slabbed junk wax era cards like Shaq for huge profits.

So your sales may have contributed to bankruptcies, divorces, and people losing their entire retirement?

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by Giroux

So your sales may have contributed to bankruptcies, divorces, and people losing their entire retirement?

Absolutely! I also put all the money right back into the hobby and helped other people out. My actions were net neutral and I am absolutely fine with that. I also gave people $10 to $20 for Rik Smits cards that I couldn't give away. I wasn't giving any advice to people to buy at that time and warned people against it. I can sleep at night with my actions and that is all I care about.

[k13]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Don't need to relax at all. SCI is an absolute idiot and caused many people to lose a tremendous amount of money with his "investing" advice. He may seem like a "good guy," but the truth is he is using his platform irresponsibly and he gave a lot of advice which ruined people's lives financially. I have only been back into the hobby for about 2 years and I even knew it was beanie baby's territory in early 2021. I switched over from all junk wax era cards and focused on vintage, selling PSA slabbed junk wax era cards like Shaq for huge profits. People like Geoff may seem harmless, but people see a successful rich guy and follow their leader's actions. His advice has created more bankruptcies, divorces, and people losing their entire retirement. The dude knows what he is doing and he in part helped create the stupidity in this hobby.

Vintage has and will go down.
Sheep going from one thing to another.