Hockey Prospecting

[Giroux]

All purpose thread for draft eligible or other young guys in the league

Connor Bedard(2023)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connor_Bedard

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZ4s24quDz8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odq3V1a_908

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Z21DHg0OOE


Matvei Michkov (2023)
https://www.eliteprospects.com/playe...matvei-michkov

Michkov is looking like he could give Bedard a run for his money for best in 2023.

I think Michkov's KHL contract situation should give Bedard a big edge to go #1 (Michkov might have to play a few years in Russia before coming over after being drafted)

2021 U18 Highlights (playing as 16 year old): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGlrZVDiVZE&t=8s

https://twitter.com/eliteprospects/s...60790520573955

So, 16-year old Matvei Michkov scored 2 goals and an assist tonight in the #KHL. It would almost be shocking if he does not break the all-time U18 scoring record in the league.

https://www.eliteprospects.com/leagu...season?age=u18

First 2 KHL goals: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOB09ercxJY

[Giroux]

Shane Wright (2022)
https://www.eliteprospects.com/playe...9/shane-wright

Heavy favorite to go #1 next year. Probably not a Bedard/Michkov level propsect but don't take that as an insult to him. Certified blue chip that lit up the OHL in his exceptional status year.

Unfortunately didn't get to see him in the OHL last year due to the canceled season but he dominated the U18's as he captained Canada to the Gold medal as an underager.



2019-2020 OHL Rookie season: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXwK4OsNcAI

2021 U18 Highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsDmpVM5nbg

[Giroux]

Article from before the U18 Gold Medal Game:

https://www.iihf.com/en/events/2021/...ard_vs_michkov

Bedard vs. Michkov
“Sounds like Sidney Crosby vs. Alex Ovechkin all over again"

The excitement these teams’ statistics and results have been generating is quite possibly overshadowed by a plot line that few U18 tournaments have ever been able to feature. Yes, we mean “ever”. And yes, we know that the U18 tournament has featured the likes of Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Sebastian Aho, David Pastrnak, Jack Eichel, Seth Jones, and Victor Hedman in recent years, just to name a precious few household names.

But there may never been a match-up like this at the U18 Worlds before.

That plot line we’re referring to is known as “Bedard vs. Michkov”. It’s real. It’s big. And it’s got the entire hockey world chirping with glee.

The most eye-opening aspect of this match-up of mega talents is that each one of these young men is an underager at this tournament. In fact, Bedard is - wait for it - just 15 years old. You read right - 15!

Connor Bedard plays for Canada and Matvei Michkov for Russia. Bedard is an all-round weapon who loves to score and can set up his teammates at a very high rate. Michkov is a rocket of a player who simply loves to put the puck in the net and does just that in every way imaginable. Both have placed their wares on display all tournament long. And they’re doing it against players who are 2-3 years older!

These are underagers, mind you, two years ahead of their draft season. That bears repeating.

Your first thought may be “Sounds like Sidney Crosby vs. Alex Ovechkin all over again!”, but you’re far from the first to think that. In fact, talk in hockey prospect circles has been moving in exactly that direction all winter long as the hockey world dreams of a renewed rivalry of extraordinary hockey talents whose legacy should end up in years of championship competition at the NHL and international levels. By the time these two players are selected, quite possibly first and second overall, in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, Crosby and Ovechkin will be concluding basically two decades of heated NHL rivalry that has seen their two teams go head-to-head on numerous occasions in creating NHL playoff and international hockey history.

Didn't disappoint: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4t-xpoN-MDM

[cardsin47]

Both sure will make for a desirable box of 2023 UD - Young Guns!

[k13]

You can't prospect hockey on top picks.
They'll sell high right away.

[Giroux]

Originally Posted by k13

You can't prospect hockey on top picks.

They'll sell high right away.

Yeah I know, just wanted to have a place to talk prospects.

Plus if there's any underrated guys that are already in the league, put em here

[Giroux]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

Both sure will make for a desirable box of 2023 UD - Young Guns!

Yep. Shane Wright next year then Bedard the year after.

Should make up for the weak 2021 draft

[cbeauch87]

I'll be stocking up on 23-24 Series one to hold. Bedard will headline with a few 2022 picks and maybe even 2021.

[Giroux]

Only been following cards since 2019, did stuff go crazy for McDavid/Crosby/OV when they were rookies?

[k13]

Originally Posted by Giroux

Only been following cards since 2019, did stuff go crazy for McDavid/Crosby/OV when they were rookies?

Yes.
Tavares, stamkos, everyone hyped was crazy.

Tavares was $150 when he came out.
Mcdavid was only $200.

This all before the boom.

Best idea is hope they suck 1st year like Jack hughes lafreniere.

[Giroux]

Originally Posted by k13

Yes.
Tavares, stamkos, everyone hyped was crazy.

Tavares was $150 when he came out.
Mcdavid was only $200.

This all before the boom.

Best idea is hope they suck 1st year like Jack hughes lafreniere.

Bedard and Michkov will not suck unfortunately

[valleynuckfan]

Originally Posted by Giroux

Bedard and Michkov will not suck unfortunately

Hmmm....proof will be in the pudding.
Seen way too many 'can't miss' high drafts end up not so much.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by k13

Best idea is hope they suck 1st year like Jack hughes lafreniere.

I hope you’re right - I bought Alexis with high hopes that were quickly shattered last Year

[Giroux]

Historically speaking, have there been any good opportunities with CHL or AHL cards of promising prospects?

[creasecollector]

Originally Posted by Giroux

Historically speaking, have there been any good opportunities with CHL or AHL cards of promising prospects?

Not really, no. Once they get a Young Guns rookie (or any of their NHL cards), that's all everyone wants.

I suppose if you hit a really low-numbered auto or something, I could see a hardcore collector going big on something like that, but a regular CHL or AHL card of a particular player doesn't have any demand once the NHL stuff comes out.

[glen87]

Originally Posted by Giroux

Historically speaking, have there been any good opportunities with CHL or AHL cards of promising prospects?

no...

[Giroux]

https://twitter.com/KHLreplays/statu...04748294545421

[PejaD]

Wright is more of a good two-way forward than prolific scorer. Think Tavares or Bergeron upside.

Michkov and Bedard may still be growing but if not they are a bit undersized similar to Jack Hughes. May take a little time to adjust to the NHL

I don't see the next McDavid, Ovi or Crosby in the next two drafts.

[GoSportsball]

Originally Posted by PejaD

I don't see the next McDavid, Ovi or Crosby in the next two drafts.

When prospecting these are definitely the gold standard and IMO if a rookie has even a lackluster first year, they probably won't grow into anything spectacular. Ovie and Crosby both crushed it their first year. McDavid probably would have too if not for a little "welcome to the league" from Brandon Manning. But he definitely made up for it in year two.

Every now and then there's a Pavel Datsyuk that takes a few years to get going and then dominates, but they are so rare it's almost not even worth mentioning.

If you look at the best players of every team, almost all of them were top 3 picks. Even players who are picked 4-10 have a lower than average success rate. There doesn't seem to be quite as many late round gems in the NHL as in other pro leagues. Not to mention, a #1 overall pick doesn't make you automatically elite. Is Ekblad a superstar? What about Nugent-Hopkins? Paging Nail Yakupov, Patrik Stefan is waiting for you in the lobby.

[Retired hobbist]

Originally Posted by Giroux

Historically speaking, have there been any good opportunities with CHL or AHL cards of promising prospects?

Lindros had a hot OHL card part of the Oshawa Generals team set which had Dale Craigwell who had a cup of coffee in the NHL and was pioneer of sorts for Black players in the NHL.

When the hobby tanked in the mid 90's this set/card tanked too and now can be bought for roughly the same price as 30 years ago.

I think if Lindros had a career like Lemieux or Crosby this set and card would have had exponential growth and a gem mint version of this card easily could be 1K plus.

[kellmuff]

Bedard is having a very slow start compared to last year. Very surprising tbh

[k13]

Originally Posted by GoSportsball

When prospecting these are definitely the gold standard and IMO if a rookie has even a lackluster first year, they probably won't grow into anything spectacular. Ovie and Crosby both crushed it their first year. McDavid probably would have too if not for a little "welcome to the league" from Brandon Manning. But he definitely made up for it in year two.

Every now and then there's a Pavel Datsyuk that takes a few years to get going and then dominates, but they are so rare it's almost not even worth mentioning.

If you look at the best players of every team, almost all of them were top 3 picks. Even players who are picked 4-10 have a lower than average success rate. There doesn't seem to be quite as many late round gems in the NHL as in other pro leagues. Not to mention, a #1 overall pick doesn't make you automatically elite. Is Ekblad a superstar? What about Nugent-Hopkins? Paging Nail Yakupov, Patrik Stefan is waiting for you in the lobby.

You are completely wrong for the most part.

Mackinnon took 5 years to get going #1 pick
Draisaitl only had 9 points 1st year then 51 the second year
Pastrnak took 3 years to get going
Rantanen had 0 pionts 1st year and only 38 second year
Barkov only had 24 points 1st year. took a while to devolop.
Stamkos only had 46 pionts 1st year.


Late picks, Mark Stone, Branden Gallagher, Klingberg, Kucherov, Gaudreau, Guentzel, braydon point, adam fox, drake batherson, jamie benn,

Mackinnon/Draisaitl/Pastrnak/Rantanen/Barkov cards were almost free at one point.

[Retired hobbist]

Mark Messier got off to a slow start , Oates wasn't drafted and Bret Hull was a late bloomer too. There isn't a true blue print to being a hall of fame player, but most hit the ground running early in their careers.

[GoSportsball]

Originally Posted by k13

You are completely wrong for the most part.

Mackinnon took 5 years to get going #1 pick
Draisaitl only had 9 points 1st year then 51 the second year
Pastrnak took 3 years to get going
Rantanen had 0 pionts 1st year and only 38 second year
Barkov only had 24 points 1st year. took a while to devolop.
Stamkos only had 46 pionts 1st year.


Late picks, Mark Stone, Branden Gallagher, Klingberg, Kucherov, Gaudreau, Guentzel, braydon point, adam fox, drake batherson, jamie benn,

Mackinnon/Draisaitl/Pastrnak/Rantanen/Barkov cards were almost free at one point.

The fact that you can only name about a dozen NON Top 3 picks in the last ten years that have had success, out of over 3000, proves my point. I would count 12 or so out of 3000 as "rare".

Also as far as #1 picks go, as I said, they PROBABLY won't grow into being a superstar. Yes of course, MacKinnon is an exception. But who is not an exception (going back last 20 years) - Hischier, Ekblad, Yakupov, RNH, Hall (very good but not superstar), Eric Johnson, Rick Nash, Rick DiPietro - nearly 40% of the #1 picks were blah from a collecting standpoint. Focus on this addendum - FROM A COLLECTING standpoint. After all that is what prospecting is for, right?

But even with Top 3 picks in the last 20 years. The actual superstars (or collectible players) that emerged were Malkin, Toews, Doughty, Hedman, Seguin, Landeskog, Barkov, Draisaitl, Eichel, Laine (maybe), Heiskanen and Svechnikov. Thats 12 out of 40.

After top 3, you can count on two hands the number of FIRST ROUND players that became superstars (highly collectible) in the last 20 years - Vasilevskiy, Getzlaf, Burns, Kopitar, Price, Giroux, Karlsson, Pieterangelo, Tarasenko, Marner, Rantanen and a few others. Honestly I stopped looking because I have to get ready for work.

After first round, forget it. Lundqvist, Duncan Keith (who is a surefire HOF and still has barely any hobby love), Bergeron, Quick, Benn, Gallagher, Hellebuyck and some others. With a draft having almost 300 picks, That's basically throwing a dart at the world's biggest dartboard.

Yes, there are outliers but MOST OF THE TIME, superstars in the hobby hit the ground running. Some take some time. As stated before by someone else, Messier and Oates are examples. But Messier and Oates aren't exactly blazing away in the card market either.

[Giroux]

Film Room: Connor Bedard is the sport's most dynamic prospect since Connor McDavid

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgxxDw09UO4