Cards that will -10X in 10 years

[mindcycle]

Well.. because it's BO so why not!

What cards will be dropping like rocks once people figure out these guys aren't going to be the next bball global and cultural phenom, or once it's realized that these cards aren't really all that rare?

People are paying tens of thousands of dollars for pink pulsar radar sparkle color blast parallels of new talent with zero current accolades. At current prices most of these guys will pretty much have to be a better version of Jordan than Jordan himself (along with massive cultural and global recognition) for these prices to make any kind of sense IMHO. But yet every year we see people paying thousands for unproven talent that will inevitably be worth less shortly down the road.

For reference, here's a few names people were paying top dollar for during their hype phase that didn't turn out to be Jordan after all.. Darius Miles, Blake Griffin, Anthony Bennett, Andrew Wiggins, Ben Simmons. A few of those guys are why I stopped buying rookies during the initial hype. Yes, i've been burned plenty of times myself, i'm not preaching from some pedestal here.

Here are a couple picks from me.. Let me know what card you saw sell recently for a ridiculous price that you just shook your head at.

[Steve88]

Lamelo, Ja Morant, Anthony Edwards....

[k13]

Pretty much all of them.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by mindcycle

Well.. because it's BO so why not!

What cards will be dropping like rocks once people figure out these guys aren't going to be the next bball global and cultural phenom, or once it's realized that these cards aren't really all that rare?

People are paying tens of thousands of dollars for pink pulsar radar sparkle color blast parallels of new talent with zero current accolades. At current prices most of these guys will pretty much have to be a better version of Jordan than Jordan himself (along with massive cultural and global recognition) for these prices to make any kind of sense IMHO. But yet every year we see people paying thousands for unproven talent that will inevitably be worth less shortly down the road.

For reference, here's a few names people were paying top dollar for during their hype phase that didn't turn out to be Jordan after all.. Darius Miles, Blake Griffin, Anthony Bennett, Andrew Wiggins, Ben Simmons. A few of those guys are why I stopped buying rookies during the initial hype. Yes, i've been burned plenty of times myself, i'm not preaching from some pedestal here.

Here are a couple picks from me.. Let me know what card you saw sell recently for a ridiculous price that you just shook your head at.

I will say this... I bought some Ben Simmons cards in in 2017 and 2018, mostly in the $50-$300 range.

Today I can still get multiples of what I paid for most of them.

[turnpipe]

I’d take a good look at the franchise history before spending that amount of money. Most of those guys play for teams that have had picks just like them every 3-4 years for the last 20 years and will continue to do so. I think Luka is relatively safe but inflated at the moment because Cuban has shown he will do what it takes to be a contender. I feel the opposite about Hawks and Timberwolves.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by turnpipe

I’d take a good look at the franchise history before spending that amount of money. Most of those guys play for teams that have had picks just like them every 3-4 years for the last 20 years and will continue to do so. I think Luka is relatively safe but inflated at the moment because Cuban has shown he will do what it takes to be a contender. I feel the opposite about Hawks and Timberwolves.

Having a good offseason would be a solid start... hasn't done that for Luka in the last 2 years.

[msink28]

Don't people have to be kind of concerned about the high buy-in on low-numbered Anthony Edwards stuff? $16,000 for a PSA 10 Mojo Prizm sticker auto /25?

[Steve88]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Having a good offseason would be a solid start... hasn't done that for Luka in the last 2 years.

Their best off season signing was Reggie Bullock. The Mav's are going nowhere unfortunately and Luka needs to find a new team if he wants to win a championship.

[turnpipe]

Wow no love for the Cubes on BO.

Originally Posted by Steve88

Their best off season signing was Reggie Bullock. The Mav's are going nowhere unfortunately and Luke needs to find a new team if he wants to win a championship.

Originally Posted by tjforce

Having a good offseason would be a solid start... hasn't done that for Luka in the last 2 years.

See above. What were the options besides overspending to keep up with the time bomb window teams? 16 hours in a normal day but Luka got up early.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by turnpipe

Wow no love for the Cubes on BO.



It’s hard to compete with NY and LA at this time. Wise man sit and wait. Fool chase dragon. He just extended so I highly doubt that will happen. Likely Christmas Kachingus gets traded for a calming vet and a pick. One more splash free agent like a Deandre Ayton or another young big man and they will be right back in it.



See above. What were the options besides overspending to keep up with the time bomb window teams? 16 hours in a normal day but Luka got up early.

Fools trade Seth Curry for Josh Richardson.

It's not about hitting a home run every single off season, but you need some good moves to make your roster more playoffs competitive.

Dallas hasn't done that.

[turnpipe]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Fools trade Seth Curry for Josh Richardson.

It's not about hitting a home run every single off season, but you need some good moves to make your roster more playoffs competitive.

Dallas hasn't done that.

I’m just saying I’d believe in the Mavs over the other options. Hawks wont’t keep everybody and I doubt any superstar goes to ATL to get overshadowed by Trae Young. Pelicans could be good, so Zion could be steady if he can stay healthy. Bobcats will give Melo all the sunlight he’ll ever need, but still be the bobcats. Ja is a total wildcard to me.

[mindcycle]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I will say this... I bought some Ben Simmons cards in in 2017 and 2018, mostly in the $50-$300 range.

Today I can still get multiples of what I paid for most of them.

Yeah I don't doubt it. That was right around the time Prizm stuff took off, Simmons rookie season and the year or two after. Most of the stuff I bought back then went up during the covid crazy too.

I guess the big question, is that even possible anymore? Back then spending a "crazy" amount on a Prizm acquisition was like $500. Now comparatively it's like 15k.. wth happened? lol

[k13]

I remember buying Carmelo Ultimate /250 BGS 9.5 for $133 when he was really good.

Now he sucks and goes for thousands....lol

[rifleman69]

Why not the Courtside Select?

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by mindcycle

Yeah I don't doubt it. That was right around the time Prizm stuff took off, Simmons rookie season and the year or two after. Most of the stuff I bought back then went up during the covid crazy too.



I guess the big question, is that even possible anymore? Back then spending a "crazy" amount on a Prizm acquisition was like $500. Now comparatively it's like 15k.. wth happened? lol

I think it's still very possible, it's just a matter of picking the right cards before they get hot, and bonus points if you pick the right players.



I'll show you the card that I consider my highest upside purchase of the year:







What I think the upside on this is tremendous:

-Trae Nebula selling for $400k this week shows you how high these things could go

-Nebulas are becoming the ultimate Prizm card to have.

-Garland has some great metrics for a guy his age, and if the Mobley add works, could be fun to watch going forward

-Garland has no NBA Autos or Logomen. So when the discussion of 'what is his single best card' comes up, there is not much to compete with.



Now, will it pan out? I don't know. It could be the card that does -10x in 10 years. That depends on how he plays and if the hobby picks up on him. But this is the kind of bet I love to take because the upside is so much more than the downside.

[mindcycle]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I think it's still very possible, it's just a matter of picking the right cards before they get hot, and bonus points if you pick the right players.

What I think the upside on this is tremendous:

-Trae Nebula selling for $400k this week shows you how high these things could go

-Nebulas are becoming the ultimate Prizm card to have.

-Garland has some great metrics for a guy his age, and if the Mobley add works, could be fun to watch going forward

-Garland has no NBA Autos or Logomen. So when the discussion of 'what is his single best card' comes up, there is not much to compete with.


Now, will it pan out? I don't know. It could be the card that does -10x in 10 years. That depends on how he plays and if the hobby picks up on him. But this is the kind of bet I love to take because the upside is so much more than the downside.

Yeah cool card for sure man, hope it works out for you. I've only been able to grab one nebula so far but they're definitely nice cards. Pretty much a rip of 97 Metal Championships PMGs, but I guess what Panini parallel isn't a rip of something done in the 90's..? lol

I guess my whole point here is when will people realize that spending 400k for a player with zero accolades maybe isn't really that great of a buy? I mean, could that guy be the next Jordan? Maybe..? IMO, to reach that level they not only have to be an NBA all time great, but they have to also be a global and cultural force for years to come. LeBron is the only guy who has come remotely close that that in the last 30 years. I guess it's possible one of these new talent's reaches that level, but highly highly unlikely.

Now short term it's a different story. For the time being people are content paying these ridiculous prices and seem to be quite convinced that their 400k card will go up. Maybe they're right..idk. But a lot can happen in 10 years. I have a strong feeling that the big money will be somewhere else at that point.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by mindcycle

Yeah cool card for sure man, hope it works out for you. I've only been able to grab one nebula so far but they're definitely nice cards. Pretty much a rip of 97 Metal Championships PMGs, but I guess what Panini parallel isn't a rip of something done in the 90's..? lol

I guess my whole point here is when will people realize that spending 400k for a player with zero accolades maybe isn't really that great of a buy? I mean, could that guy be the next Jordan? Maybe..? IMO, to reach that level they not only have to be an NBA all time great, but they have to also be a global and cultural force for years to come. LeBron is the only guy who has come remotely close that that in the last 30 years. I guess it's possible one of these new talent's reaches that level, but highly highly unlikely.

Now short term it's a different story. For the time being people are content paying these ridiculous prices and seem to be quite convinced that their 400k card will go up. Maybe they're right..idk. But a lot can happen in 10 years. I have a strong feeling that the big money will be somewhere else at that point.

Short term may be the key for paying up for a guy like Trae...If the Hawnks make the Finals next year, who know what someone will pay for it....

But long term to be up big? There are a few guys currently in the NBA who would be a gain if Trae matches:

-LeBron
-Curry
-Durant
-Giannis


If you had a Topps Chrome Superfractor of any of those guys (the Prizm Black for Giannis), you could get 7 figures. Heck, even Luka would do $1MM+, but same story, if he retired today he's Andrew Luck.

So somebody is betting that Trae ends up being a top 25 or so all time player with that buy.

As for me... I'm just betting that Garland is an all star someday and this card pays off. Considering a raw Aleksej Pokusevski Prizm Gold just sold for $4,200 the other night, I feel pretty good about my 5 figure investment.

[gomiamigo]

Can only fall 100%, hard to fall 1,000%!

[Cardboard Dawg]

* SUPER HOT *

[Nomad]

So lets say money is a fluid concept and it flows between players as they flourish and decline. It is not terrible for something to become overheated, overpriced, and then sink as the next phenom arrives. Its like the VC startup market. That one player that delivers 100x pays for all the misses, hopefully. And its fun. Just don't be the one paying Apple stock prices for Zaltech Biosensors. And avoid the Anthony Edwards if they are running hot right out of the gate, knowing that they will inevitably cool off from that level of hype. The first injury.... there should be three or four undervalued rookies in any class. I got my pick in, bought two dozen key cards for under $2,000, let's see what happens.

[mindcycle]

Originally Posted by Cardboard Dawg

* SUPER HOT *

* INVEST NOW *

[turnpipe]

Originally Posted by turnpipe

I’m just saying I’d believe in the Mavs over the other options. Hawks wont’t keep everybody and I doubt any superstar goes to ATL to get overshadowed by Trae Young. Pelicans could be good, so Zion could be steady if he can stay healthy. Bobcats will give Melo all the sunlight he’ll ever need, but still be the bobcats. Ja is a total wildcard to me.

Shoot

[Hellcat]

Anthony Edwards is a stud he's a blast from the past he has some MJ and Kobe in him no load management and not injury prone. He's so young I see a very bright future for him.

[hermanotarjeta]

95% of all rookie cards.

[elontusk1119]

Originally Posted by Hellcat

Anthony Edwards is a stud he's a blast from the past he has some MJ and Kobe in him no load management and not injury prone. He's so young I see a very bright future for him.

This. Ant will be the face of the NBA very soon.