calculusdork's 2021 Cy Young Predictor

[calculusdork]

It's time.

Thread for 2018: https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1236574
Thread for 2019/2020: https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1295302

Official Scoring Scale:
70-79: Good season
80-89: Very good season
90-99: Excellent season
100-109: Likely CY winner
110+: Out of this world!


Let's get right to it.

2021 NL CY Prediction (as of 6/29/21)
1. Jacob deGrom 171.78 (deGrominator has officially broken the Predictor)
2. Kevin Gausman 117.41
3. Brandon Woodruff 92.92
4. Freddy Peralta 91.64
5. Max Scherzer 90.15

2021 AL CY Prediction (as of 6/29/21)
1. Carlos Rodon 88.83
2. Kyle Gibson 88.73
3. Gerrit Cole 88.33
4. Lance Lynn 85.85
5. Aaron Civale 84.13

[calculusdork]

Some initial notes:

- deGrom. What is there to say? A guy with a 551 ERA+ deserves to break any Predictor.

- Poor Kevin Gausman.

- Don't get too carried away with what's happening in the AL. This will likely all work itself out cleanly by the end. Having said that ... Carlos Rodon, man. What an incredible first half, especially given his injury history.

- Just so we keep perspective ... check out ESPN's Bill James Predictor. Lulz.

- Finally ... I am more than likely going to have to adjust some of the 'bonus' values of my Predictor. Pitchers don't throw over 200 IP these days (so, e.g. 220+ IP doesn't really make sense as an IP bonus).

[Silent George]

If they don't give DeGrom the AL award too, the entire thing is a sham.

[Hollywood42]

I love that Kyle Gibson outranks Cole at this point

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by Silent George

If they don't give DeGrom the AL award too, the entire thing is a sham.

Originally Posted by Hollywood42

I love that Kyle Gibson outranks Cole at this point

Yeah, this is all going to work itself out pretty soon.

Gibson hasn't lost a game yet and leads the AL in ERA. The Predictor likes these sorts of things. Having said that ... one bad game will affect him much more than it would affect guys like Cole and Rodon (who strike out a ton of dudes).

[premium1981]

DeGrom is something else. I really hope he is able to keep it up.

PS. I hope the other 4 rotation pieces for the Mets end up with ERA's over 10 and the Mets lose the division by 10 games minimum.

[Silent George]

this is a prediction on how voting will go, yes? Not a measure of who the best pitcher was persay?

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by Silent George

this is a prediction on how voting will go, yes? Not a measure of who the best pitcher was persay?

Correct. I put this together back in August 2018, using historical data (2003-2017), to try and determine who would win each CY award in 2018 and beyond. This algorithm has correctly predicted the winner for both awards for 2018, 2019, and 2020.

[Silent George]

I say that because I think if the season ends today he's clearly getting 30 first place votes. But I do wonder if he slips below the innings requirements, how quickly votes might fade. He just BARELY qualifies for the ERA title, and has had lots of small injury issues. I think 170IP DeGrom runs away with it. I think 150IP DeGrom, even with outstanding numbers and MLB leading WAR - just might not. Not if Gausman has a mirror image 2nd half and gives 200 innings to the shock dominant team in baseball.

Media votes. Media are often morons. Media go with narratives. Right now DeGrom is the clear narrative, but if he's going to not qualify with innings, or if his ERA ticks up above Gibson's, the narrative might switch over to the guy who would actually get credit for the ERA title.

Not declaring anything, just wondering.

[LVDan]

Thanks Cal-
one thread that hasn't yet been ridden off the rails sideways

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by LVDan

Thanks Cal-
one thread that hasn't yet been ridden off the rails sideways

You rang?

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by Silent George

I say that because I think if the season ends today he's clearly getting 30 first place votes. But I do wonder if he slips below the innings requirements, how quickly votes might fade. He just BARELY qualifies for the ERA title, and has had lots of small injury issues. I think 170IP DeGrom runs away with it. I think 150IP DeGrom, even with outstanding numbers and MLB leading WAR - just might not. Not if Gausman has a mirror image 2nd half and gives 200 innings to the shock dominant team in baseball.

Media votes. Media are often morons. Media go with narratives. Right now DeGrom is the clear narrative, but if he's going to not qualify with innings, or if his ERA ticks up above Gibson's, the narrative might switch over to the guy who would actually get credit for the ERA title.

Not declaring anything, just wondering.

My first reaction to this was to be dismissive, but ...

What if deGrom finishes the season with 150 IP, 220 K and a 1.00 ERA, while Gausman finishes with 200 IP, 230 K and a 1.50 ERA?

The Predictor still says deGrom would win ... but it would *really* close.

I have to think about it like this ... Eric Gagne won as a closer in 2003 with a 1.2 ERA and a 15 K/9 in 82.1 IP. deGrom would necessarily win with a lower ERA in 70 more innings pitched.

[hche]

The NL is so deep after deGrom. Wheeler is leading NL pitchers in bWar and second in fWar but no where to be found on top 5.

I wonder how the "crackdown" will affect the list in a month or so.

[rms13]

it's allegedly a historic pitching season and Kyle Gibson is second most likely to win AL Cy Young. Crazy times

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by hche

The NL is so deep after deGrom. Wheeler is leading NL pitchers in bWar and second in fWar but no where to be found on top 5.

I wonder how the "crackdown" will affect the list in a month or so.

Yep, this is big.

[Silent George]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

My first reaction to this was to be dismissive, but ...

What if deGrom finishes the season with 150 IP, 220 K and a 1.00 ERA, while Gausman finishes with 200 IP, 230 K and a 1.50 ERA?

The Predictor still says deGrom would win ... but it would *really* close.

I have to think about it like this ... Eric Gagne won as a closer in 2003 with a 1.2 ERA and a 15 K/9 in 82.1 IP. deGrom would necessarily win with a lower ERA in 70 more innings pitched.

This is kind of my point. I think you'd have lots of takes - maybe not from voters, but from talking heads - wondering how valuable a starting pitcher can be if they didn't even pitch enough to qualify for innings titles, while you have a clear "every other year" cy young winner like Gausman.

And it's a point of discussion because he's so close to the arbitrary line, and arbitrary lines mean a lot with this stuff. Gausman could pull it out from many more innings (fair) and a whole lot of batted ball luck.

I think the human element puts it strongly with DeGrom at this moment because he's all the rage and fascination with the ERA record. but if you take that away, and the human element shifts, this race becomes a lot closer than it looks (or should be.)

[mmbtvs]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

Some initial notes:

- deGrom. What is there to say? A guy with a 551 ERA+ deserves to break any Predictor.

- Poor Kevin Gausman.

- Don't get too carried away with what's happening in the AL. This will likely all work itself out cleanly by the end. Having said that ... Carlos Rodon, man. What an incredible first half, especially given his injury history.

- Just so we keep perspective ... check out ESPN's Bill James Predictor. Lulz.

- Finally ... I am more than likely going to have to adjust some of the 'bonus' values of my Predictor. Pitchers don't throw over 200 IP these days (so, e.g. 220+ IP doesn't really make sense as an IP bonus).

Is Bill James' predictor based on darts and a board?

[Doublexthebeast]

I think if Kyle Gibson keeps up his pace and gets traded to a contender then he has a legitimate chance at winning.

Yes I just typed that and yes I am shocked that I was able to do it. I think he could boost his win totals significantly by going to a better team. Same applies for Mad Max in the NL but it doesn't really matter if deGrom keeps pitching like he has.

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by mmbtvs

Is Bill James' predictor based on darts and a board?

Dude ... it's sooooo bad. I mean, they still award a "Victory Bonus" for your team making the playoffs. Tell that to deGrom and his 10-9 record for the 77-85 Mets in 2018.

I only just now remembered that I built this algorithm because of Jacob deGrom and his 2018 season. The fact that the Snell/Sale/Verlander race was so interesting that year didn't hurt either.

[theshowandme]

Would like to see a week by week line plot of their number to see who is rising/dipping. Could help us identify who is gaining ground/falling off.

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Would like to see a week by week line plot of their number to see who is rising/dipping. Could help us identify who is gaining ground/falling off.

Yep, that's good stuff. I do keep up with that data weekly ... just need to plot it up.

[anusinha]

It would be interesting to see a pre and post sticky stuff tracking

[Silent George]

Originally Posted by mmbtvs

Is Bill James' predictor based on darts and a board?

His predictor was built off the history of the time, and doesn't reflect the voting bloc today. It's just never been updated. That's why Cal's analysis went back about 15 years. Because if you're going to consider the same logic that went into Mark Davis winning the Cy, you're not going to capture today's electorate.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

Dude ... it's sooooo bad. I mean, they still award a "Victory Bonus" for your team making the playoffs. Tell that to deGrom and his 10-9 record for the 77-85 Mets in 2018.

I only just now remembered that I built this algorithm because of Jacob deGrom and his 2018 season. The fact that the Snell/Sale/Verlander race was so interesting that year didn't hurt either.

To be fair, the James (and Neyer) system was built 20 years ago and was pretty accurate until deGrom broke their system in 2018. I suspect they’d tweak it if they did it today.

[awz50]

Love this every year