To fellow prospectors, what are your thoughts on 2021 Bowman Hobby?

[Rlessary]

Now that we are nearing the release date for the hobby, I am considering preordering either the Hobby or HTA Jumbo Hobby and wanted to get some of your thoughts. I love Bowman 1st Chrome cards, they are my #1 collected card, and while I loved 2020 Bowman stuff (minus the atrocious QC issues in Draft among a few other issues), I have never ordered the HTA before and at $600 is it worth it in your eyes to get over the $320 one?

[marterburn]

Compared with previous Bowman releases, it seems like it'll be fine in quantity & quantity of high-ceiling prospects (from what we know so far. There's no auto CL yet).

However, the floor of the best guys is very low. Other than Austin Martin, there's no one that's better than a 50% shot to be an above average major leaguer. Now, that doesn't matter entirely for the hobby, but it makes it a bit trickier than normal.

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[jduds]

If you are breaking now to just get Chrome cards, you need to hit some decent autos to make up for the price difference. The nice thing about prospects is that dud autos can heat up randomly. I like the idea of getting 3 autos, but for the same price I like the Topps Chrome Jumbos with 5 autos(not Bowman but Chrome RCs). I think I'd go with Jumbos, but the autos are the big appeal to me as the base chrome can normally be picked up reasonably if you are choosy.

[AwesomeBrian]

Until Topps can prove that there won't be multiple duplicates of the same 3-4 players in a case you simply can't trust it. You're gonna get murdered 98% of the time at the current prices also. Just a few years ago paying $200 for Jumbo was crazy.

[reddragonthe]

The print run games have made it nearly impossible to count on. It's just a craps table trip at this point. Expensive fun. Shot at a nice hit. I love Bowman. And I'll still enjoy it. But $300+/auto for Hobby given what we know is nightmare stuff. $200+ per in Jumbo also deceptively not that much better, but does come with a slightly higher floor. But you are talking like still lose your butt floor. So why not go out swinging with Hobby?

[smanzari]

Originally Posted by marterburn

However, the floor of the best guys is very low. Other than Austin Martin, there's no one that's better than a 50% shot to be an above average major leaguer. Now, that doesn't matter entirely for the hobby, but it makes it a bit trickier than normal.

I feel like his “shot” is low too, hasn’t he just been a “utility man” throughout both college and team USA?


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[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by Rlessary

I have never ordered the HTA before and at $600 is it worth it in your eyes to get over the $320 one?

What is your intent..... keep sealed or bust and grade?

[mwash1983]

Originally Posted by smanzari

I feel like his “shot” is low too, hasn’t he just been a “utility man” throughout both college and team USA?


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Ceiling is probably Dansby Swanson.

[notoriousrmb]

No reason to buy Bowman wax these days.

Way overpriced, most of the names are 4th or 5th year retreads and the print run is too high to hit anything worthwhile. Topps adding a bunch of new refractor parallels is misleading, no one cares about a 3rd year blue dots and shimmers refractor /73. Top names are sometimes SP'ed as well - should be the same print run for all names.

If you love Bowman, buy singles and avoid the wax.

[tonedef2oo8]

What has your research as a prospector told you?

[marterburn]

Originally Posted by smanzari

I feel like his “shot” is low too, hasn’t he just been a “utility man” throughout both college and team USA?


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Right, I wasn't trying to imply he has the highest ceiling on this CL (that we know so far) -- just that he has the highest floor.

But if he can defintely play 4 positions and do

.275 / 20 HR / 10 SB as a 'likely' outcome

That's a good anchor for the CL.

There aren't many (or any?) other guys that have "likely" outcomes to that level right now.




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[Stech36]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

No reason to buy Bowman wax these days.

Way overpriced, most of the names are 4th or 5th year retreads and the print run is too high to hit anything worthwhile. Topps adding a bunch of new refractor parallels is misleading, no one cares about a 3rd year blue dots and shimmers refractor /73. Top names are sometimes SP'ed as well - should be the same print run for all names.

If you love Bowman, buy singles and avoid the wax.

It depends on the product, I made a ton on draft this year

And still have a ton

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by tonedef2oo8

What has your research as a prospector told you?

......

[Flkrsn5]

I have always loved Bowman but I think I’ll probably pass this year. If I see some retail, maybe I’ll grab some, but that’ll be the most I do.

[notoriousrmb]

Originally Posted by Stech36

It depends on the product, I made a ton on draft this year

And still have a ton

Did you buy the wax through normal 'publicly available' resources?

[kcip]

Is Bowman sold online through Topps? I saw Bowman Chrome listed last year, but not Regular Bowman.

[jcfill]

Most of the 1st cards seem to be super young hitters with high ceilings/low floors, with a few high upside pitchers mixed in. Most of the autos should sell decent if you're looking to rip.

I've been considering buying a couple; one to rip one to hold. Only need a couple of the young guys to pan out for it to be a good opportunity.

[shayscards79]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

No reason to buy Bowman wax these days.

Way overpriced, most of the names are 4th or 5th year retreads and the print run is too high to hit anything worthwhile. Topps adding a bunch of new refractor parallels is misleading, no one cares about a 3rd year blue dots and shimmers refractor /73. Top names are sometimes SP'ed as well - should be the same print run for all names.

If you love Bowman, buy singles and avoid the wax.

This. It's pretty much a losing proposition. I haven't bought bowman in three years honestly. Even singles are way overpriced now. Prospecting is pretty much a thing of the past now that people throw absurd money at everything out if the gate.

Edit: I'm referring to breaking wax, not flipping it.

[mrolsent]

Originally Posted by shayscards79

This. It's pretty much a losing proposition. I haven't bought bowman in three years honestly. Even singles are way overpriced now. Prospecting is pretty much a thing of the past now that people throw absurd money at everything out if the gate.

The price to prospect has certainly gone up, but there's still lower cost opportunity out there.

[Rlessary]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

What is your intent..... keep sealed or bust and grade?

Bust and grade big hits, and maybe sell some ungraded if they are doing nice on the market compared to what I think they will long-term and want to get them out as quick as possible.

[Rlessary]

Originally Posted by tonedef2oo8

What has your research as a prospector told you?

I am sure it is not to far off from most, which is it is a lot of guys with pretty low floors and high-very high ceilings. It is a riskier prospect class than 2020 Draft's was (obviously), but I am not opposed to that per say. I just wondered what other people thought of the value difference between the two products as I haven't ever bought a super jumbo as I was never in a position to do so, but at $600+ dollars and the success I had with 2020 draft, it is quickly becoming a tough choice between the the two or a potential 2020 box.

[Rlessary]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

Did you buy the wax through normal 'publicly available' resources?

I did too, I made about double what I put into it and still have all the prospects I wanted in various refractor 1st auto's, many I have multiples of and that isn't even getting into 1st Chrome, Refractors and all the paper 1st stuff. I loved that product.

[Rlessary]

Originally Posted by shayscards79

This. It's pretty much a losing proposition. I haven't bought bowman in three years honestly. Even singles are way overpriced now. Prospecting is pretty much a thing of the past now that people throw absurd money at everything out if the gate.

I totally understand your position. I just think that with the price of entry being much higher, that the singles selling higher will offset that.

[Rlessary]

Originally Posted by marterburn

Compared with previous Bowman releases, it seems like it'll be fine in quantity & quantity of high-ceiling prospects (from what we know so far. There's no auto CL yet).

However, the floor of the best guys is very low. Other than Austin Martin, there's no one that's better than a 50% shot to be an above average major leaguer. Now, that doesn't matter entirely for the hobby, but it makes it a bit trickier than normal.

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Thanks for your take Marterburn, you are very knowledgeable when it comes to prospects and I appreciate the input.

[Rlessary]

Originally Posted by Rlessary

Bust and grade big hits, and maybe sell some ungraded if they are doing nice on the market compared to what I think they will long-term and want to get them out as quick as possible.

I should note I am not a big graded card person, I don't feel like I need someone else's opinion about how a card looks when I can see it quite clearly. But of course in today's market there is a killing to made with graded cards and it is heavily baked into the price of boxes of basketball, football, and increasingly baseball. So if it is a card I plan to sell and it appeared to be a possible 10 that was going to really add value to it I will grade it, otherwise I just sell it raw.