Is this just the mid season modern slump coming early?

[BreaultCards]

I’m well aware that the money is flowing into the goats. I think that’s a due correction and no reason lebron and Kobe’s shouldn’t be sky high. The real question is what happens next. Looking at how soft some of the modern “stars” have become I think there is opportunity. It is clear more money is still flowing into the hobby and the fact that Trae young can score 50 in a playoff game or Zion can do a Burger King commercial will still bring the hype. I know prizm is overpopulated but I think we could still see a strong uptick in the next few months. I think the new product will rekindle the modern players prices. Thoughts?

[IndianaCards]

Idk that it will rekindle the guys that aren't rookies, and that don't have RC's in this year's product. People will be chasing Lamelo, Haliburton, Edwards, Wiseman, etc. The new shiny objects.

Do I think there's a lot of value to be found right now? For sure, and I've been finding it regularly. There's no reason at all for guys like Luka, Trae, Ja, and Zion to be seeing dips in their prices, these are the 4 that I'd (and probably most everyone) would bet money on to be the face of the league in a few years.

Also, I think there's a ton of quick flip potential in guys that have 1st round draft pedigree that are going for pennies (more like dollars lol), won't name them all, I'll let you guys do the homework.

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[YayNJ]

"Hey guys there's all these secret players that I'm hoarding, but I'm not going to mention them all"

[theleica]

I will start with an aside.

I read a BO members show notes from the Texas card show where he said every single table was selling PSA graded base prizm. Hundreds upon hundreds of Luka and Zion.

As each day passes more base cards pop through PSA and more and more are sent to be graded.

I feel as though the slump you see isn't necessarily a slump but further readjustment to the quantity of overproduced cards that are available.

There are 1 million PSA graded cards between 2018-19 & 2019-20 basketball. If we break that down further, there are 27,109 PSA graded base Prizm Luka Doncic (15,800 PSA 10s) and 27,860 PSA graded base Zion Williamson (15,169 PSA 10s.)

Months back I read that PSA has 1 million cards waiting to be graded.

I am sure there will be an uptick on these at some point. How much is unknown. Collectors and smart investors are parking their money into rarer modern cards and vintage cards.

The following is probably the most important part and one's out if they are heavy into modern base.

Money is flowing fast into the hobby. Pretty much every single Discord cook group and Discord trading card group has "experts" making semiweekly or weekly picks. And I am not talking just basketball. They have separate "experts" for Pokemon, baseball, football, golf, tennis, soccer, hockey, you name it, all of which get semiweekly or weekly picks. The vast majority of these picks are base card, and PSA graded or raw (rarely BGS). This goes way beyond SCI.

Someone needs to be holding these base cards in the end. Follow the trends and let them.

[Ross]

Originally Posted by theleica

I will start with an aside.

I read a BO members show notes from the Texas card show where he said every single table was selling PSA graded base prizm. Hundreds upon hundreds of Luka and Zion.

As each day passes more base cards pop through PSA and more and more are sent to be graded.

I feel as though the slump you see isn't necessarily a slump but further readjustment to the quantity of overproduced cards that are available.

There are 1 million PSA graded cards between 2018-19 & 2019-20 basketball. If we break that down further, there are 27,109 PSA graded base Prizm Luka Doncic (15,800 PSA 10s) and 27,860 PSA graded base Zion Williamson (15,169 PSA 10s.)

Months back I read that PSA has 1 million cards waiting to be graded.

I am sure there will be an uptick on these at some point. How much is unknown. Collectors and smart investors are parking their money into rarer modern cards and vintage cards.

The following is probably the most important part and one's out if they are heavy into modern base.

Money is flowing fast into the hobby. Pretty much every single Discord cook group and Discord trading card group has "experts" making semiweekly or weekly picks. And I am not talking just basketball. They have separate "experts" for Pokemon, baseball, football, golf, tennis, soccer, hockey, you name it, all of which get semiweekly or weekly picks. The vast majority of these picks are base card, and PSA graded or raw (rarely BGS). This goes way beyond SCI.

Someone needs to be holding these base cards in the end. Follow the trends and let them.

This.

I was in Dallas and guys couldn’t give luka prizm base away. Winter is coming for some of the stuff and it’s frankly needed. 8-13 for luka too.


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[jnmcards]

Shockingly, it seems like people are finally learning that true, long-term value is derived from an item's relative scarcity.

[ballhawkdawk]

Originally Posted by YayNJ

"Hey guys there's all these secret players that I'm hoarding, but I'm not going to mention them all"

My favorite obligatory post in these threads. Thanks for getting it out of the way early.

[theleica]

Originally Posted by jnmcards

Shockingly, it seems like people are finally learning that true, long-term value is derived from an item's relative scarcity.

I think most of us here knew that all along. We also knew in order to fund these scarce cards without too much money flowing from our wallets, it made financial sense to buy & sell PSA graded base cards or buy raw, grade through PSA and sell.

[BreaultCards]

Again this thread Is just a discussion and I’m not interested in arguing which players are under or over values. I also completely agree with the base quantity issue. I just think they will still pop again along with the rarer stuff for the modern players that have good performances. The goat stuff is going to hit a point where it is not the flavor of the month anymore (though I am full belief it is the best place to be)

[sebreg]

Originally Posted by theleica

I will start with an aside.

I read a BO members show notes from the Texas card show where he said every single table was selling PSA graded base prizm. Hundreds upon hundreds of Luka and Zion.

As each day passes more base cards pop through PSA and more and more are sent to be graded.

I feel as though the slump you see isn't necessarily a slump but further readjustment to the quantity of overproduced cards that are available.

There are 1 million PSA graded cards between 2018-19 & 2019-20 basketball. If we break that down further, there are 27,109 PSA graded base Prizm Luka Doncic (15,800 PSA 10s) and 27,860 PSA graded base Zion Williamson (15,169 PSA 10s.)

Months back I read that PSA has 1 million cards waiting to be graded.

I am sure there will be an uptick on these at some point. How much is unknown. Collectors and smart investors are parking their money into rarer modern cards and vintage cards.

The following is probably the most important part and one's out if they are heavy into modern base.

Money is flowing fast into the hobby. Pretty much every single Discord cook group and Discord trading card group has "experts" making semiweekly or weekly picks. And I am not talking just basketball. They have separate "experts" for Pokemon, baseball, football, golf, tennis, soccer, hockey, you name it, all of which get semiweekly or weekly picks. The vast majority of these picks are base card, and PSA graded or raw (rarely BGS). This goes way beyond SCI.

Someone needs to be holding these base cards in the end. Follow the trends and let them.

Sounds like some people are getting struck by the sudden realization that the supply side of the equation actually kinda matters.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by theleica

I will start with an aside.

I read a BO members show notes from the Texas card show where he said every single table was selling PSA graded base prizm. Hundreds upon hundreds of Luka and Zion.

As each day passes more base cards pop through PSA and more and more are sent to be graded.

I feel as though the slump you see isn't necessarily a slump but further readjustment to the quantity of overproduced cards that are available.

There are 1 million PSA graded cards between 2018-19 & 2019-20 basketball. If we break that down further, there are 27,109 PSA graded base Prizm Luka Doncic (15,800 PSA 10s) and 27,860 PSA graded base Zion Williamson (15,169 PSA 10s.)

Months back I read that PSA has 1 million cards waiting to be graded.

I am sure there will be an uptick on these at some point. How much is unknown. Collectors and smart investors are parking their money into rarer modern cards and vintage cards.

The following is probably the most important part and one's out if they are heavy into modern base.

Money is flowing fast into the hobby. Pretty much every single Discord cook group and Discord trading card group has "experts" making semiweekly or weekly picks. And I am not talking just basketball. They have separate "experts" for Pokemon, baseball, football, golf, tennis, soccer, hockey, you name it, all of which get semiweekly or weekly picks. The vast majority of these picks are base card, and PSA graded or raw (rarely BGS). This goes way beyond SCI.

Someone needs to be holding these base cards in the end. Follow the trends and let them.

What some of the new hobby entrants didn't WANT to believe is that the old heads know what you stated.

NOW, does that mean graded base goes back to be dollar bin fodder? No, absolutely not. I think the new hobby participants definitely made a lane for this type of stuff. It's not going to zero out, but it's not going to the moon like many people wanted. Comparing it to #57 was a fools errand, but also comparing it to #57 does give it value.

People can only pass the same amount of money around for so long. The longer they pass it around, the more likely it is to get gobbled by sharks (guys who will sell into the frenzy and not rebuy). I'm no shark by any means, but I took advantage of the base craze last summer. I'm sure plenty others did the same. I didn't take my money and buy more base to flip, but used it to pick up cards that mean something to me.

I was at the Dallas show. Saw tons of base chromium cards that I had no interest in, and just moved on. I saw guys trying to unload stacks of graded base to dealers who weren't buying any of it (in fairness some dealers were at heavily discounted prices). Why would I need another 10 Zion PSA 10s when I've got 10 right here I can't move fast enough?

The supply seems bottomless at this point, but the demand is still there. There's still new money flowing in daily, but the most of the new money is "smarter" money who has a further hobby outlook than a single 50 point game and a flip.

[Mac302]

Anyone that has been in this hobby long enough should know these graded base cards were not going to hold that sky high value that some were seeing. I have multiple graded base Zions/Ja's as well.

I still continue to send in base cards with my numbered cards though because in the end a graded card is still going to fetch more money than a raw.

[minnesotachill]

Was watching a Gary V video and he was saying how overrated these base 10s are. I'm sure that doesn't help the situation.

I have been saying for a long time that with the quantities made of the new Prizm rcs prices will be tanking in value in the near future. I was told I was a troll and I was just being salty because I didn't invest in them while they were cheaper.

[IndianaCards]

There will always be a market for these, idc if there's 100 thousand of them, not everyone can afford to spend a couple grand (more for most) on a Luka color variation or numbered card. People get priced out, and it happens quick. These cards have about as safe of a floor as you'll find, people still want to own a piece of Luka RC hype, and this is their opportunity. Follow the linear progression into hoops and other subsets. As long as a player has hype, and Luka is the most hyped of the ultra-modern guys (for good reason), the cards will have huge demand. It's the most liquid asset in trading cards, it's by far the most purchased/sold/exchanged card in the marketplace, and because of that will always carry value. It's like buying a Toyota Camry when you want that Lexus, sometimes you have to settle for the more economically sensible option, one that appeals to more people. Prizm Base is that option.

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[BreaultCards]

Originally Posted by IndianaCards

There will always be a market for these, idc if there's 100 thousand of them, not everyone can afford to spend a couple grand (more for most) on a Luka color variation or numbered card. People get priced out, and it happens quick. These cards have about as safe of a floor as you'll find, people still want to own a piece of Luka RC hype, and this is their opportunity. Follow the linear progression into hoops and other subsets. As long as a player has hype, and Luka is the most hyped of the ultra-modern guys (for good reason), the cards will have huge demand. It's the most liquid asset in trading cards, it's by far the most purchased/sold/exchanged card in the marketplace, and because of that will always carry value. It's like buying a Toyota Camry when you want that Lexus, sometimes you have to settle for the more economically sensible option, one that appeals to more people. Prizm Base is that option.

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I agree with this and base will always have a place with the speculator. Even if Luka 10s are $100 if he is trending up people will buy a bunch and he has a good playoff came and they go to $150. The only thing that changes are the numbers.

[jzx1103]

Non of the modern guys are having exceptional years. Their teams are mediocre at best (Talking about Zion, Ja, Luka, Trae, Tatum) these 5 guys drive the modern prices and as of right now. They're just your regular star level player putting up numbers on average teams, nothing really exciting.

[IndianaCards]

Originally Posted by jzx1103

Non of the modern guys are having exceptional years. Their teams are mediocre at best (Talking about Zion, Ja, Luka, Trae, Tatum) these 5 guys drive the modern prices and as of right now. They're just your regular star level player putting up numbers on average teams, nothing really exciting.

Hey, the Grizz have won like 7 straight, and that's without JJJ. Ja is getting fully healthy again, they're a team to watch for, they make the playoffs for sure imo.

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[SupermanBrandon]

I believe the bass boom has a lot to do with it but I also think that the new measuring stick is the hype train of Zion mixed w/ the biggest hobby boom of all-time in 2020. That was the perfect basketball storm! It's just a let down at this point for a ton of new hobbyist. We all can admit that this past draft class was less than stellar. Plus you add in...new Prizm isn't for another month+, Mahomes/Brady, the big boom of vintage (all sports) & baseball is around the corner.

[theleica]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

What some of the new hobby entrants didn't WANT to believe is that the old heads know what you stated.

NOW, does that mean graded base goes back to be dollar bin fodder? No, absolutely not. I think the new hobby participants definitely made a lane for this type of stuff. It's not going to zero out, but it's not going to the moon like many people wanted. Comparing it to #57 was a fools errand, but also comparing it to #57 does give it value.

People can only pass the same amount of money around for so long. The longer they pass it around, the more likely it is to get gobbled by sharks (guys who will sell into the frenzy and not rebuy). I'm no shark by any means, but I took advantage of the base craze last summer. I'm sure plenty others did the same. I didn't take my money and buy more base to flip, but used it to pick up cards that mean something to me.

I was at the Dallas show. Saw tons of base chromium cards that I had no interest in, and just moved on. I saw guys trying to unload stacks of graded base to dealers who weren't buying any of it (in fairness some dealers were at heavily discounted prices). Why would I need another 10 Zion PSA 10s when I've got 10 right here I can't move fast enough?

The supply seems bottomless at this point, but the demand is still there. There's still new money flowing in daily, but the most of the new money is "smarter" money who has a further hobby outlook than a single 50 point game and a flip.

I completely agree with everything said. I have friends that are newer to the hobby within the past 2 years and at this point they are holding their cache of PSA graded cards thinking greener pastors are coming. They may but they may not.

I have been consigning every order I receive back through PSA recently. I pull the rarer cards I enjoy and I move everything else. I am in so low that the profit is great no matter which way you slice it. Not going to throw more risk in by holding.

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by theleica

I have been consigning every order I receive back through PSA recently. I pull the rarer cards I enjoy and I move everything else. I am in so low that the profit is great no matter which way you slice it. Not going to throw more risk in by holding.

This is exactly what I do. EVERY base card goes directly to consignment. I don’t even check the market price and hope I can squeeze another 20% out by waiting. The ROI is too great right now to get greedy. We can analyze it all we want but it doesn’t get any more complicated than simple supply and demand.

[k13]

Lebron was tanking after winning a championship so nothing is safe.

If you think its bad just wait till summer after playoffs.
If you think its bad now just wait till I get my psa order back.

No difference between #@#@#@#@ kobe base cards and #@#@#@#@ Prizm luka base. All #@#@#@#@ base with grading propping everything up.

There's nothing interesting happening in the NBA.
Pre season hype is done.

[k13]

If you think non-base is any different. Its not.
If its down its down.

Zion numbered will be down too.

We haven't even got to the new rookies to steal market money yet. Yikes.

[Meets1]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

I believe the bass boom has a lot to do with it but I also think that the new measuring stick is the hype train of Zion mixed w/ the biggest hobby boom of all-time in 2020. That was the perfect basketball storm! It's just a let down at this point for a ton of new hobbyist. We all can admit that this past draft class was less than stellar. Plus you add in...new Prizm isn't for another month+, Mahomes/Brady, the big boom of vintage (all sports) & baseball is around the corner.

I think all this is it. After all the excitement of last season, where we are right now in the current season is a bit of a lull- mid-Winter/early-mid season grind with no fans in the stands (bubble novelty has worn off)- but would think things pick up a bit moving through the Spring when games become more meaningful, dogfight for playoff spots given all the .500-ish teams, more fans in the stands, etc.

[Shan95]

Originally Posted by k13

Lebron was tanking after winning a championship so nothing is safe.

If you think its bad just wait till summer after playoffs.
If you think its bad now just wait till I get my psa order back.

No difference between #@#@#@#@ kobe base cards and #@#@#@#@ Prizm luka base. All #@#@#@#@ base with grading propping everything up.

There's nothing interesting happening in the NBA.
Pre season hype is done.

Lol this guy


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[Akphillips86]

The issue isn’t so much the players, but which cards people have thrown disproportionate sums of money at in relation to their scarcity. I’m in no rush to cash out on everything I have of the youngsters and throw it all into the vintage spike only to turn around and try to do the same thing when the money is flying back into the youngsters. Then again, I didn’t buy any Prizm.

It’s been a while since we have seen so many potentially top tier guys within just a couple draft classes. As long as they keep performing, there’s no need to think there isn’t room for growth in their cards. The question isn’t the player, the question is which cards are worth the price tag.

Also, WHEN you buy matters. For the people that picked up a ton of Luka before the big surge, who cares if some stuff dipped a bit? The dude is an absolute statistical machine and an amazing long term hold. For people that picked up Zion early in the offseason, who cares? The guy has (somehow under the radar) just put up the most offensively dominant first 40 games since MJ. Ja is back making highlights and has a super young Grizz squad on track for a potential playoff run, and Trae seems to have his groove back with a greatly improved young Hawks team. What’s not to love?

I’ve stated repeatedly, along with several others, that base Prizm isn’t going to be the be all end all when the dust settles. They’re not very attractive or rare cards. Sure there will be a default market for it, but why not buy rarer, more attractive cards that aren’t going to fall from such lofty heights when people can panic sell and throw hundreds up on eBay and drive the price down in a matter of a couple days?

Obviously there is the high end market, rarities, quality on card autos, etc., and we all know NT RPA’s are going to be worth a mint. However, you still have some relatively good buys out there in a number of other affordable sets. Even attractive, serial numbered stuff. Now people have turned over just about every stone when it comes to finding value in Luka because his higher end stuff priced out thousands of buyers, but not quite as much with some of the other previously mentioned players.


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