Randy Arozarena: Topps Series 1 or Update?

[Middies31985]

Which will be THE flagship card for Randy?

I know the Series 1 is the first official RC, but will the Update with the Rays uni carry more value and interest in the hobby?

[Graz]

I went with both (multiples of each) to see how it plays out. They are inexpensive enough. I think the series 1 will be the one that carries the most weight but I am rarely ever right in the card collecting game. Haha

[SaltyCracker]

Neither 16 months from now.

[Brady7799]

Yoan Moncada might give you some insight.

[towerymt]

I would chase Update, current team, the team he did his best work with, and should be lower production. Despite the near-series-one level of production of Update, you still have a ton of it that won't get ripped because it's an awful product, and the S1 rookie is being pulled from factory sets at a high rate now that Topps made the factory set something worth opening, instead of something you put on a shelf, sealed, forever until it's $5 at a yard sale.

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by towerymt

I would chase Update, current team, the team he did his best work with, and should be lower production. Despite the near-series-one level of production of Update, you still have a ton of it that won't get ripped because it's an awful product, and the S1 rookie is being pulled from factory sets at a high rate now that Topps made the factory set something worth opening, instead of something you put on a shelf, sealed, forever until it's $5 at a yard sale.

This guy is sharp. I’d go update too.


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[NYBBFAN]

Originally Posted by SaltyCracker

Neither 16 months from now.

Exactly this

[base set]

Originally Posted by Brady7799

Yoan Moncada might give you some insight.

Moncada still plays for the team on his Update card, and could well have a long successful career there. No one ever retires from Tampa.

I always wonder which Didi Gregorius card from 2013 is more popular, but I never bother looking too closely.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by SaltyCracker

Neither 16 months from now.

this.

[JPWisco]

The guy is a Tampa Bay Ray who has played 42 Major League games through age 25.

Whichever card you like better?

[LVDan]

No skin in the game as I cashed in my Randys in the playoffs. That said, I’ll be rooting for him to prove a lot of people wrong. He’s one of the most exciting players in the sport, already.


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[Middies31985]

So if Arozarena hits .280 next year, pops off a 30/30 season then his cards don't matter because he is 26 and plays for the Rays? Freddie Freeman is 31. His cards went crazy this year when he put up MVP numbers.

Anyways, the reason I asked initially was because I bought about 40 Series 1 on Starstock in September for dimes. I picked up about 20 Updates from the LCS for $34. If I were grading some, I wasn't sure if I should grade the Updates or Series 1.

Rays will likely stay relevant in the postseason, especially if they do not trade Snell. Even if they do, this team is going to be good for awhile with their loaded farm system. Who cares if nobody goes to their games. Randy made enough of a name for himself that people will have their eyes on him next year.

[Middies31985]

Originally Posted by LVDan

No skin in the game as I cashed in my Randys in the playoffs. That said, I’ll be rooting for him to prove a lot of people wrong. He’s one of the most exciting players in the sport, already.


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I did the same with a lot of my Starstock inventory. Had about 15 shipped home and sold all the others around $8 each. Not bad for .20 cards

[Bizzydesigner]

Similar to Trent Grisham, I’d take the update.

[SaltyCracker]

Originally Posted by Middies31985

So if Arozarena hits .280 next year, pops off a 30/30 season then his cards don't matter because he is 26 and plays for the Rays? Freddie Freeman is 31. His cards went crazy this year when he put up MVP numbers.

Anyways, the reason I asked initially was because I bought about 40 Series 1 on Starstock in September for dimes. I picked up about 20 Updates from the LCS for $34. If I were grading some, I wasn't sure if I should grade the Updates or Series 1.

Rays will likely stay relevant in the postseason, especially if they do not trade Snell. Even if they do, this team is going to be good for awhile with their loaded farm system. Who cares if nobody goes to their games. Randy made enough of a name for himself that people will have their eyes on him next year.

You should grade all you think will gem. I don’t believe in Randy A-Z long term, but am also sending out what I have just in case. There’s probably $ to be made here.

[SaveMeTheGum]

If he becomes great and somehow stays with the Rays longterm - Update
If he becomes great and goes to any other team in the near future -- S1
If he doesn't become great, doesn't matter.

[1989FF]

Originally Posted by towerymt

I would chase Update, current team, the team he did his best work with, and should be lower production. Despite the near-series-one level of production of Update, you still have a ton of it that won't get ripped because it's an awful product, and the S1 rookie is being pulled from factory sets at a high rate now that Topps made the factory set something worth opening, instead of something you put on a shelf, sealed, forever until it's $5 at a yard sale.

When I consider print runs, I never factor in the current lack of demand to rip the product because if a card gets hot, it gets opened. No more dumping it in the ocean.

[SupermanBrandon]

If you have money invested in Randy cards: you need lightening in a bottle to strike twice. It already happened once. You now need it to happen again. The first semi slump he has in '21, his cards are potentially done...FOREVER! They will have reached their heights, and you will have missed a big opportunity. Or if you bought during the spike, you are going to lose money. He has to come out of the gate hot, because if its a slow start...this hobby is going to dump him quicker than Doc & Straw snorted fresh booger sugar.

[rutgersjpm]

It really feels like people are acting as though all that matters is a HOF career. Cards in 2020 are not the same as cards in, heck, 2019. It's all about what have you done for me lately. The Rays just made it to the World Series and Randy had the best playoff run in the history of baseball. They will likely call up Wander Franco next year and have a crop of talent that will only continue to make them better for at least the next few years. If Randy is a middle of the order bat for a perennial World Series contender I promise you the window for a profitable flip has not closed.

Full disclosure, I unloaded all of my parallels (minus a gold and independence day at BGS) and autos. I had roughly 300 base cards and sent quite a few out to BGS and PSA. I'm still invested, but have already made a fair bit of money off his cards. The profits I've locked into make it easier for me to make a play on graded base.

[Middies31985]

Originally Posted by SaltyCracker

You should grade all you think will gem. I don’t believe in Randy A-Z long term, but am also sending out what I have just in case. There’s probably $ to be made here.

Some of the podcasts I listen to big believers in him. Pipeline did a dive into his stats and advanced stuff. They are very encouraged by what they saw and said the only thing that will hold him back in Prospects terms will be his age. They view him as a potential .270-.300 hitter with 30/30 skills. They are not a big fan of the defensive profile, but love the bat and the advanced stuff, even though a small sample size, is encouraging that this won't be a flash in the pan.

[k13]

Originally Posted by Middies31985

So if Arozarena hits .280 next year, pops off a 30/30 season then his cards don't matter because he is 26 and plays for the Rays? Freddie Freeman is 31. His cards went crazy this year when he put up MVP numbers.

Freeman started having full seasons at 21 so he accumulated a lot already.

HUGE difference.

His cards will never matter long term.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by k13

Freeman started having full seasons at 21 so he accumulated a lot already.

HUGE difference.

His cards will never matter long term.

This is the typical line/rhetoric prospectors use to encourage everyone to buy the youngest players because it causes the values of the youngest players to rise.

Truth is all any single player needs is ten years service time to be HOF eligible.

Joe D played all of 12.5 years. Jackie played ten.

What can Arozarena do in the next 9-10 years is all anyone needs to ask, not how old he is.

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by base set

Moncada still plays for the team on his Update card, and could well have a long successful career there. No one ever retires from Tampa.

I always wonder which Didi Gregorius card from 2013 is more popular, but I never bother looking too closely.

Good point about retiring as a Ray.

There can always be a first, of course, but I can’t think of a star player who’s left Tampa and continued to be hobby-relevant:

Carl Crawford
Evan Longoria
David Price
BJ Upton

Josh Hamilton became a star for a short time, but his case was rather unique.


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[base set]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

Good point about retiring as a Ray.

There can always be a first, of course, but I can’t think of a star player who’s left Tampa and continued to be hobby-relevant:

Carl Crawford
Evan Longoria
David Price
BJ Upton

Josh Hamilton became a star for a short time, but his case was rather unique.


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Well a different exception-proves-rule there is Wade Boggs.

But mostly I was just riffing on the Moncada Update card. When the Rays inevitably trade Arozarena, I think it won’t matter as much to collectors which RC they pick up and then the Gregorius RC comp makes more sense.

For now though, Update all the way.

[Gamecockfan21]

Update is the way to go. Historic playoff numbers with the Rays