Reality check: It's a bubble.

[gomiamigo]

It has to be said -- I know some of you already agree with me but it's really obvious that NBA cards, particularly rookies and top players who haven't won anything yet, are in a serious bubble.

That doesn't mean it will end real soon, but feels worth mentioning:

'Giannis will soon have 2 MVPs!'
So does Steve Nash, if he doesn't win his prices will crash. Yes, I realize Giannis is the better player.

Zion is a generational player and best athlete in NBA!
People raved and fanboi'd even harder about Vince, for years. And Iverson.

Anthony Davis is a great player, but he's no Shaq. How much have Shaq prices fallen?

Westbrook prices already in free-fall, Harden's are dropping by the day. Trae Young will never be as good as either of those guys.

The hype always dies down unless you're MJ, Lebron, or Kobe. And Kobe prices were quite cheap for many years.

Anyone who is buying cards of any other player that's been skyrocketing will get burnt. Remember when Jordan PSA 10 rookies fell by 50%? It was only 3.5 years ago, didn't even require a recession.

Ben Simmons used to be the #Next hotness.

Not a single person at big shows in PA, NJ, NY is asking for Chef Curry cards anymore and he has won titles and MVPs. If his career has peaked [pro tip: it has] will his prices stay high? Maybe.

Iverson, T-Mac, Carmelo, Chris Paul were all superstars all highly collected, all HoFers but now prizm Ja and Zion go for more than some of their best cards.

Will KD -- whose prices aren't bubblicious yet - be able to return to form? Achilles injuries are hard to recover from.

Remember what happened to Wiggins when he didn't develop? What are Towns prices doing?

Even if we weren't in a bubble, most of these high prices will disappear in a year or two if not sooner. Injuries, players stop developing, they can't win a title or get to the Finals even.


tl/dr; Collect what you like and don't be the bagholder like so many Gary V lemmings. I wish you all the best.

[Miz]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

It has to be said -- I know some of you already agree with me but it's really obvious that NBA cards, particularly rookies and top players who haven't won anything yet, are in a serious bubble.

That doesn't mean it will end real soon, but feels worth mentioning:

'Giannis will soon have 2 MVPs!'
So does Steve Nash, if he doesn't win his prices will crash. Yes, I realize Giannis is the better player.

Zion is a generational player and best athlete in NBA!
People raved and fanboi'd even harder about Vince, for years. And Iverson.

Anthony Davis is a great player, but he's no Shaq. How much have Shaq prices fallen?

Westbrook prices already in free-fall, Harden's are dropping by the day. Trae Young will never be as good as either of those guys.

The hype always dies down unless you're MJ, Lebron, or Kobe. And Kobe prices were quite cheap for many years.

Anyone who is buying cards of any other player that's been skyrocketing will get burnt. Remember when Jordan PSA 10 rookies fell by 50%? It was only 3.5 years ago, didn't even require a recession.

Ben Simmons used to be the #Next hotness.

Not a single person at big shows in PA, NJ, NY is asking for Chef Curry cards anymore and he has won titles and MVPs. If his career has peaked [pro tip: it has] will his prices stay high? Maybe.

Iverson, T-Mac, Carmelo, Chris Paul were all superstars all highly collected, all HoFers but now prizm Ja and Zion go for more than some of their best cards.

Will KD -- whose prices aren't bubblicious yet - be able to return to form? Achilles injuries are hard to recover from.

Remember what happened to Wiggins when he didn't develop? What are Towns prices doing?

Even if we weren't in a bubble, most of these high prices will disappear in a year or two if not sooner. Injuries, players stop developing, they can't win a title or get to the Finals even.


tl/dr; Collect what you like and don't be the bagholder like so many Gary V lemmings. I wish you all the best.

I understand what you are saying but don't think your taking into account the quick flip ability of such a volatile market. In April of last year you could buy a Luka rpa for 8k or less upon release..that same card today is 45k...other then stocks..tell me an investment that can appreciate that much so quickly? I was thinking about buying a zion cracked ice 2 months ago for 7k...didnt..now that card is easily 15k...nowadays everyone thinks about quick flip..no one cares it about 5 years down the road homeboy

[CapitalPCards]

All valid points. It seems its all about riding the current wave.

[bustsomewax]

Originally Posted by Miz

I understand what you are saying but don't think your taking into account the quick flip ability of such a volatile market. In April of last year you could buy a Luka rpa for 8k or less upon release..that same card today is 45k...other then stocks..tell me an investment that can appreciate that much so quickly? I was thinking about buying a zion cracked ice 2 months ago for 7k...didnt..now that card is easily 15k...nowadays everyone thinks about quick flip..no one gives 2 f uc ks about 5 years down the road homeboy

Think you missed his point.

[minnesotachill]

The sports card market is the strongest its even been and will not be changing anytime soon.


I think some of the biggest drops in prices happen when a player is in his 2nd year and not producing (Kevin Knox, Mitchell Robinson) to name a few.

Or a player hits around age 25-26 and is finding themselves on a crappy team or gets hurt (Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, Demar DeRozan)

[RogerGodahell]

We could probably merge all of these threads into one instead of having a new one every couple of days... Or not. There will be a new one in a few days like clock work. Carry on.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...t=recent+surge
and
https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1357622
and
https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1357742
and
https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1205915

[ninjacookies]

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1003605

Stay safe, bois.

[no10pin]

Originally Posted by Miz

I understand what you are saying but don't think your taking into account the quick flip ability of such a volatile market. In April of last year you could buy a Luka rpa for 8k or less upon release..that same card today is 45k...other then stocks..tell me an investment that can appreciate that much so quickly? I was thinking about buying a zion cracked ice 2 months ago for 7k...didnt..now that card is easily 15k...nowadays everyone thinks about quick flip..no one gives 2 f uc ks about 5 years down the road homeboy

By making the statement that no one cares about 5 years down the road, aren't you making his point for him? He wasn't saying you can't make money on them in the near term.

[gonygo]

Originally Posted by minnesotachill

The sports card market is the strongest its even been and will not be changing anytime soon.


I think some of the biggest drops in prices happen when a player is in his 2nd year and not producing (Kevin Knox, Mitchell Robinson) to name a few.

Or a player hits around age 25-26 and is finding themselves on a crappy team or gets hurt (Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, Demar DeRozan)

You left out Tobias Harris. Sill think he’s a solid Nba player, but does anyone still care? Do you? What team is he on these days? So many good players who have come n gone in the hobby...


Also, there are a variety of other variables etc

[allstarcomics]

Its musical chairs Short term lot of money being made/spent. Just dont be the last guy standing holding the bag and you will be ok. I love Zion but is a base prism really worth $200? Feels a lot like Steph Curry madness from a few years ago People don't want to miss out and I dont blame them but when it turns it will be brutally quick

[bmf]

Originally Posted by minnesotachill

The sports card market is the strongest its even been and will not be changing anytime soon.

agree 100%. We’ve been hearing this bubble and imminent recession talk for a few years now. If it happens, it happens. In the meantime it’s all just chicken little chatter. Most of the people who predict this stuff are just frustrated that they haven’t been able to capitalize on a strong market.

[imbluestreak23]

Isn't this the same as it ever was?

Love that I made out like a bandit on Jesus Montero

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by allstarcomics

Its musical chairs Short term lot of money being made/spent. Just dont be the last guy standing holding the bag and you will be ok. I love Zion but is a base prism really worth $200? Feels a lot like Steph Curry madness from a few years ago People don't want to miss out and I dont blame them but when it turns it will be brutally quick

I'm glad you brought this up....

Guys, this happens every year and it's usually not that complicated. Every year the price on a certain segment pops. A lot of it comes back down to earth, but some of it never does.

Back when Curry base Topps were $400-600 a pop, you would have done pretty poorly spending on them. But if you were able to pick up a Curry NT RPA, or Exquisite and have held since, you've done pretty well.

Me personally, I never bought a single Curry card during that run. Instead I manged to buy one of each LeBron Topps Chrome refractors during that time, as well as 2012-2015 Prizm Silvers. Curry may have come back to earth, but ya, I'd say I did pretty well. I wish I had been loading up on LeBron autos, too. But I remember thinking that $400 for an NBA On Card, non rookie auto was too much.

Same goes for now. Some people are spending some real dumb money on some dumb stuff. But there's other stuff that we'll look back on as cheap in a few years. If you want to know what I'm seeing, I'll be updating my flip thread before too long.

[allstarcomics]

Originally Posted by bmf

agree 100%. We’ve been hearing this bubble and imminent recession talk for a few years now. If it happens, it happens. In the meantime it’s all just chicken little chatter. Most of the people who predict this stuff are just frustrated that they haven’t been able to capitalize on a strong market.

Dont know about all that Card market is nowhere near where it was in the printing money late 1980's Once upon a time people were paying a $100 for Donruss Cansecos and a $100 for Don mattingly's and there was a card show every week and print runs for product was in the millions not a few hundred cases. Easier to manipulate the market when its much much smaller. Shaq was going to fund retirement accounts ask the graybeards how that went PSA 10's just allowed worthless mass produced crap to peddled as a hard to find item

[Ken735i]

I say let everyone continue to pay crazy prices for current hot products. Don't ruin the fun of pulling a (insert current rc here) that will quickly be worthless when the next class comes

It's the same every year...

Jordan LeBron Kobe and Jeter. Pay no mind to them. I will continue buying them all for myself.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[thor_rider08]

Originally Posted by Ken735i

I say let everyone continue to pay crazy prices for current hot products. Don't ruin the fun of pulling a (insert current rc here) that will quickly be worthless when the next class comes

It's the same every year...

Jordan LeBron Kobe and Jeter. Pay no mind to them. I will continue buying them all for myself.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

The term we are looking for is "bagholder"?
Don't you touch my LeBron inserts

[ninjacookies]

It's actually much easier to manipulate the market now than it was in the 80's and 90's due to the internet and reach.

BO is one of the simplest examples of this. Just one thread can cause an overnight jump in basically anything, either popular or obscure.

[ballhawkdawk]

OP is right ya know. B-ball cards are like drugs/booze... Enjoy responsibly.

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

It's actually much easier to manipulate the market now than it was in the 80's and 90's due to the internet and reach.

BO is one of the simplest examples of this. Just one thread can cause an overnight jump in basically anything, either popular or obscure.

We call it the “Sekou Effect”

[bmf]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

It's actually much easier to manipulate the market now than it was in the 80's and 90's due to the internet and reach.

BO is one of the simplest examples of this. Just one thread can cause an overnight jump in basically anything, either popular or obscure.

very true ^^^

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

We call it the “Sekou Effect”

[luluNTraed]

Is there a reason you left Luka out of your post OP? Just curious.

[Jacks2323]

How does the saying go? Economist have successfully predicted 237 of the last 12 recessions. The market is fine and will continue to be.

[ThoseBackPages]

#ThanksTopps

[Cheken]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

It has to be said -- I know some of you already agree with me but it's really obvious that NBA cards, particularly rookies and top players who haven't won anything yet, are in a serious bubble.

That doesn't mean it will end real soon, but feels worth mentioning:

'Giannis will soon have 2 MVPs!'
So does Steve Nash, if he doesn't win his prices will crash. Yes, I realize Giannis is the better player.

Zion is a generational player and best athlete in NBA!
People raved and fanboi'd even harder about Vince, for years. And Iverson.

Anthony Davis is a great player, but he's no Shaq. How much have Shaq prices fallen?

Westbrook prices already in free-fall, Harden's are dropping by the day. Trae Young will never be as good as either of those guys.

The hype always dies down unless you're MJ, Lebron, or Kobe. And Kobe prices were quite cheap for many years.

Anyone who is buying cards of any other player that's been skyrocketing will get burnt. Remember when Jordan PSA 10 rookies fell by 50%? It was only 3.5 years ago, didn't even require a recession.

Ben Simmons used to be the #Next hotness.

Not a single person at big shows in PA, NJ, NY is asking for Chef Curry cards anymore and he has won titles and MVPs. If his career has peaked [pro tip: it has] will his prices stay high? Maybe.

Iverson, T-Mac, Carmelo, Chris Paul were all superstars all highly collected, all HoFers but now prizm Ja and Zion go for more than some of their best cards.

Will KD -- whose prices aren't bubblicious yet - be able to return to form? Achilles injuries are hard to recover from.

Remember what happened to Wiggins when he didn't develop? What are Towns prices doing?

Even if we weren't in a bubble, most of these high prices will disappear in a year or two if not sooner. Injuries, players stop developing, they can't win a title or get to the Finals even.


tl/dr; Collect what you like and don't be the bagholder like so many Gary V lemmings. I wish you all the best.

Sheeps are meant to be slaughtered. Just hope people don’t really go all out on this hobby with their investment money prospecting. My fomo appetite for Zion and luka fulfilled when I bought some of their silver and color variations as well as buying some boxes in general.

On a side note, picked up my first triple exquisite logoman card today. Just slowly accomplishing my hobby goals