Jon Lester - HOF?

EricFozz · 07-26-2019, 12:09 PM

I'll keep this quick... So, Jon Lester has never been flashy, but he has been spectacularly consistent for his career. Career ERA around 3.5, nearing 200 wins, and 2500 SOs, and three World Series titles under his belt. Only two losing seasons, and he had a 3.34 ERA in one of them! Since 2008, he has started no fewer than 31 games.

I'm not crazy to think he's on the brink of the HOF, right? I feel like another solid season to get him to 200 wins, and that might do it.

calculusdork · 07-26-2019, 12:10 PM

He'd need about 3 more very solid seasons (15 W, 3.25 ERA) to be considered.

WillBaseball · 07-26-2019, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calculusdork

He'd need about 3 more very solid seasons (15 W, 3.25 ERA) to be considered.

Agreed. Health will be key. Another WS with good performances would help a lot too, maybe vs the Astros this Fall.

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PejaD · 07-26-2019, 12:30 PM

NLCS MVP is his only individual honor, but is a 3x WS winner for large market teams. Not a HOF now, but if he pitches till 40 and performs as a solid starter / marginal All-Star he should have the resume.

IHaveHisCard · 07-26-2019, 12:31 PM

If it was the Hall of Above Average. Yes.

EricFozz · 07-26-2019, 12:37 PM

Fair enough, folks - thanks for the input. I also tend to think that HOFers were, at one point, the BEST at their position for some period of time. I definitely think of Kershaw, Verlander, and Scherzer more in that regard than I do Lester. If he'd won a Cy Young or two in there, I'm sure the discussion would be different.

Cubsfanp · 07-26-2019, 12:38 PM

I think Jon will end up just missing the cusp of the HOF. Really solid pitcher, and a worthy candidate, but i don't believe the voters will be on his side.

jdhaugh11 · 07-26-2019, 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cubsfanp

I think Jon will end up just missing the cusp of the HOF. Really solid pitcher, and a worthy candidate, but i don't believe the voters will be on his side.

You are probably right, unless we start to run out of pitchers making the HOF.
What I mean by this is that many pitchers today don't pitch late into the game and they are only good for 5-7 years and then fall off.

I could see Lester getting in many, many years after he retires.

Lester's numbers will end up being very close to Curt Schilling's once he retires.
Schilling has more wins in the playoffs, but they have very similar ERA's in both the regular season and post season.

Lester has a better regular season win % as well.

The difference between Lester and Schilling is that people actually like Lester!

IHaveHisCard · 07-26-2019, 12:58 PM

I like Schilling... a lot.

HarryLime · 07-26-2019, 01:10 PM

That WAR is ugly. He definitely needs to pull a Verlander and have a few great seasons here toward the end. I don't think 200 Wins is anything to write home about. It's obviously awesome, I didn't mean that, just that it can't be one of your HOF crutches.

Arthur

teosdesserts · 07-26-2019, 01:21 PM

Harold Baines is in the HOF...

Wrathofmarcos · 07-26-2019, 01:38 PM

I feel like accomplishing all he has after surviving testicular cancer should net him a few votes alone.

drstrader5 · 07-26-2019, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calculusdork

He'd need about 3 more very solid seasons (15 W, 3.25 ERA) to be considered.

I think you're right. If he can get to 210-Wins 2500-K's and a 50+ WAR, he'll have a shot. He has excellent playoff stats and 3 WS titles. Having played in Boston and Chicago should elevate his chances as well.

mredsox89 · 07-26-2019, 01:59 PM

I honestly thought no way as I went to his BaseballReference page, but as I looked at the "comparison" numbers for HOF at the bottom of his page, he's surprisingly closer to an average HOF pitcher than I would have ever fathomed.

I think the lack of ever being the top flight guy, winning a CY award, etc. will hurt him, because it's unlikely that his overall "counting stats" are going to be enough to generate enough interest from the voters.

I don't think he's going to get a ton of support from the advanced metric voters either, with his Bwar well below the average HOF pitcher and 7-year peak well below the average HOF pitcher

smapdi · 07-26-2019, 02:00 PM

On current trajectory, I'd say close but no. He's obviously a very good pitcher, and has had the luck to be a key contributor to 3 championship teams with popular, historic franchises. But has never been in the conversation for best pitcher in baseball or his league, no CYAs, no 20-win seasons, none of the usual milestone numbers yet achieved and few subjective checkboxes marked. Seems destined for that Cooperstown Grey Zone where so many notable pitchers have resided. But that's just my perception and I could be wrong. He could come out with 80% his first year on the ballot. I have a really nice RC of his and would love for it to raise up.

mfw13 · 07-26-2019, 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IHaveHisCard

If it was the Hall of Above Average. Yes.

That what it's become lately....

mfw13 · 07-26-2019, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smapdi

But has never been in the conversation for best pitcher in baseball or his league, no CYAs, no 20-win seasons, none of the usual milestone numbers yet achieved and few subjective checkboxes marked. Seems destined for that Cooperstown Grey Zone where so many notable pitchers have resided.

Pretty much a description of Mike Mussina....

smapdi · 07-26-2019, 03:57 PM

That's true, but Mussina finished strong with a 20 win season and people thought he might have hung it up too early. Even so, it took Mussina years to get elected. Without that last year he could have gone the path of someone like Kevin Brown or Jim Kaat.

Gatorsmld · 07-26-2019, 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by teosdesserts

Harold Baines is in the HOF...

I've said it before but bears repeating.....it's no longer the HOF if Baines is in...……..

jhssketchcards · 07-26-2019, 07:21 PM

After this years HOF joke I say they all get in.
Mo Rivera the first unanimous vote??? Seriously it’s a freaking joke that Mays, Ruth, Williams, and so many more weren’t unanimous already. Baines and Mussina getting in prove that it’s now the Hall of Really Good. It’s lost it’s mystique for me.
So yeah, why not put Lester in. He was a good big game pitcher for two Curse breakers. Let him in.

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Ironman · 07-26-2019, 10:19 PM

uh , no

SupermanBrandon · 07-26-2019, 10:23 PM

I like to go by the ole...
IF YOU HAVE TO ASK, THEN IT'S A NO!

Above average player. Nothing more.

rman112 · 07-26-2019, 10:27 PM

Lester and Mussina are really not comparable.

Peties Army · 07-26-2019, 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mfw13

Pretty much a description of Mike Mussina....

Stop it.

Mussina is much better then Lester

Peties Army · 07-26-2019, 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

Lester and Mussina are really not comparable.

No they aren’t. It’s silly.

07-26-2019, 12:09 PM	#1
EricFozz Member Join Date: Nov 2013 Location: Malden, MA Posts: 1,322	Jon Lester - HOF? I'll keep this quick... So, Jon Lester has never been flashy, but he has been spectacularly consistent for his career. Career ERA around 3.5, nearing 200 wins, and 2500 SOs, and three World Series titles under his belt. Only two losing seasons, and he had a 3.34 ERA in one of them! Since 2008, he has started no fewer than 31 games. I'm not crazy to think he's on the brink of the HOF, right? I feel like another solid season to get him to 200 wins, and that might do it.

07-26-2019, 12:38 PM	#7
Cubsfanp Member Join Date: Feb 2013 Location: Indiana Posts: 2,095 wrigleyville2007 Cubsfanp	I think Jon will end up just missing the cusp of the HOF. Really solid pitcher, and a worthy candidate, but i don't believe the voters will be on his side. __________________ That. Just. Happened.

07-26-2019, 01:21 PM	#11
teosdesserts Member Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Maryland Posts: 6,642 eosdesserts teosdesserts	Harold Baines is in the HOF... __________________ Nick Markakis super fan, former Supercollector

07-26-2019, 12:10 PM	#2
calculusdork Member Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: Nowheresville Posts: 26,683 calculusdork calculusdork	He'd need about 3 more very solid seasons (15 W, 3.25 ERA) to be considered.

07-26-2019, 12:30 PM	#4
PejaD Member Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 4,071	NLCS MVP is his only individual honor, but is a 3x WS winner for large market teams. Not a HOF now, but if he pitches till 40 and performs as a solid starter / marginal All-Star he should have the resume.

07-26-2019, 12:31 PM	#5
IHaveHisCard Member Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: New Jersey Posts: 322 ihavehiscard	If it was the Hall of Above Average. Yes.

07-26-2019, 12:37 PM	#6
EricFozz Member Join Date: Nov 2013 Location: Malden, MA Posts: 1,322	Fair enough, folks - thanks for the input. I also tend to think that HOFers were, at one point, the BEST at their position for some period of time. I definitely think of Kershaw, Verlander, and Scherzer more in that regard than I do Lester. If he'd won a Cy Young or two in there, I'm sure the discussion would be different.

07-26-2019, 12:58 PM	#9
IHaveHisCard Member Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: New Jersey Posts: 322 ihavehiscard	I like Schilling... a lot.

07-26-2019, 01:10 PM	#10
HarryLime Member Join Date: May 2011 Location: Spaceball 1 Posts: 4,794	That WAR is ugly. He definitely needs to pull a Verlander and have a few great seasons here toward the end. I don't think 200 Wins is anything to write home about. It's obviously awesome, I didn't mean that, just that it can't be one of your HOF crutches. Arthur

07-26-2019, 01:38 PM	#12
Wrathofmarcos Member Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: Orange County, New York Posts: 545	I feel like accomplishing all he has after surviving testicular cancer should net him a few votes alone.

07-26-2019, 01:59 PM	#14
mredsox89 Member Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: Boston/Miami Posts: 2,445 mikedubs89 mdubs89	I honestly thought no way as I went to his BaseballReference page, but as I looked at the "comparison" numbers for HOF at the bottom of his page, he's surprisingly closer to an average HOF pitcher than I would have ever fathomed. I think the lack of ever being the top flight guy, winning a CY award, etc. will hurt him, because it's unlikely that his overall "counting stats" are going to be enough to generate enough interest from the voters. I don't think he's going to get a ton of support from the advanced metric voters either, with his Bwar well below the average HOF pitcher and 7-year peak well below the average HOF pitcher

07-26-2019, 02:00 PM	#15
smapdi Member Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 1,768 piledriver1	On current trajectory, I'd say close but no. He's obviously a very good pitcher, and has had the luck to be a key contributor to 3 championship teams with popular, historic franchises. But has never been in the conversation for best pitcher in baseball or his league, no CYAs, no 20-win seasons, none of the usual milestone numbers yet achieved and few subjective checkboxes marked. Seems destined for that Cooperstown Grey Zone where so many notable pitchers have resided. But that's just my perception and I could be wrong. He could come out with 80% his first year on the ballot. I have a really nice RC of his and would love for it to raise up.

07-26-2019, 03:57 PM	#18
smapdi Member Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 1,768 piledriver1	That's true, but Mussina finished strong with a 20 win season and people thought he might have hung it up too early. Even so, it took Mussina years to get elected. Without that last year he could have gone the path of someone like Kevin Brown or Jim Kaat.

07-26-2019, 07:21 PM	#20
jhssketchcards Member Join Date: Jul 2014 Location: Louisiana Posts: 11,447 jhssketchcards2012	After this years HOF joke I say they all get in. Mo Rivera the first unanimous vote??? Seriously it’s a freaking joke that Mays, Ruth, Williams, and so many more weren’t unanimous already. Baines and Mussina getting in prove that it’s now the Hall of Really Good. It’s lost it’s mystique for me. So yeah, why not put Lester in. He was a good big game pitcher for two Curse breakers. Let him in. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

07-26-2019, 10:19 PM	#21
Ironman Member Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: California Posts: 367	uh , no

07-26-2019, 10:23 PM	#22
SupermanBrandon Banned Join Date: Dec 2018 Location: TN Posts: 15,843	I like to go by the ole... IF YOU HAVE TO ASK, THEN IT'S A NO! Above average player. Nothing more.

07-26-2019, 10:27 PM	#23
rman112 Banned Join Date: Oct 2014 Location: Freedom is Free Again Posts: 40,946	Lester and Mussina are really not comparable.