2018-19 Prizm Silver Print Run - Hobby Boxes

[gymratcards]

Hi everyone,

I wanted to share with you the latest analysis I've performed on the print run for 2018-19 Panini Prizm Basketball Hobby cases and the non-serial numbered Prizm base card inserts, including Silver Prizms. The analysis is based on collecting data on the contents of 50 hobby boxes and 29 FOTL boxes.

I wrote a whole post about it in my blog, with tables listing out the numbers. You can read it here.

As expected, Panini increased the print run for 2018-19 Hobby boxes and for the Silver Prizms packed in hobby boxes. Just like last year, Silver Prizms land at a rate of 6 per box on average. With an increased number of boxes comes an increased number of Silver Prizms. In contrast, color serial-numbered Prizms, such as Gold /10, are now hit less frequently than last year. On average one needs to open more packs of 2018-19 to find a Gold /10 Prizm.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the retail launch. I'm considering adding a page to my blog where people can input their retail break information so that we can have a large sample size for analyzing. If I can get it set up would you be up for sharing your retail break data assuming you just need to fill out a simple form?

[daeve]

great content, thanks

[tjforce]

Awesome as always..


Thanks so much!

[starfox]

When does retail hit?

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[phil]

Nice. I have not heard of anyone getting cut on retail, so all things point to a big increase from 2017 on that also.

[mindcycle]

Thanks for this analysis man. If silvers in hobby are already above 1000 I can’t even imagine the increase in supply once retail is released. I just can’t see a scenario where paying $600+ for a Doncic is a good idea.

[RogerGodahell]

I can. Because they're hard to hit and boxes are expensive. I believe we covered the odds in another thread. It was 1-50 hobby boxes to hit a Doncic silver. @ $250 x 50 that's $12,500. You are better off buying singles but the price wont come down much from the breakers. Another thing that's been pointed out is he's wanted world wide, large European fan base. Demand is there. Is 1000-2000 really a lot if it's his most desirable card on the planet?

[ballhawkdawk]

Very fun blog post. I’ll be checking out more in the future and going back to read the couple other posts you have on there.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

I can. Because they're hard to hit and boxes are expensive. I believe we covered the odds in another thread. It was 1-50 hobby boxes to hit a Doncic silver. @ $250 x 50 that's $12,500. You are better off buying singles but the price wont come down much from the breakers. Another thing that's been pointed out is he's wanted world wide, large European fan base. Demand is there. Is 1000-2000 really a lot if it's his most desirable card on the planet?

All of this. The average collector can’t afford an NT RPA that approaches five figures. I think silver Prizm is the card people turn to next.

Silver Doncics are about double the cost of a hobby box. Seems fair.

[stlfan78]

Originally Posted by starfox

When does retail hit?

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I believe it was moved to Dec 7th.

[mindcycle]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

I can. Because they're hard to hit and boxes are expensive. I believe we covered the odds in another thread. It was 1-50 hobby boxes to hit a Doncic silver. @ $250 x 50 that's $12,500. You are better off buying singles but the price wont come down much from the breakers. Another thing that's been pointed out is he's wanted world wide, large European fan base. Demand is there. Is 1000-2000 really a lot if it's his most desirable card on the planet?

If hobby is already at 1100, the total, once retail is released, isn’t going to be 2000. That might have been close to the total last year, but with a 90% increase in hobby I’m going to guess retail supply will also increase. I bet we’re looking at 3000+ this season, and that might even be conservative. Remember how Prizm retail was next to impossible to find last year? Well since this stuff is basically like printing dollar bills for Panini there’s no way they’re going to let that happen again.

Now if this is his most desirable card on the planet, sure, it’ll be worth something. I still don’t see a $600 card here though. Maybe if he becomes a top 5 guy in the league.. but even if that were to happen it still seems to high to me. Simmons has dropped to that price and he didn’t have autos or RPA’s flooding the market like Doncic will have this season.

All that said, I’ve been wrong before about prizm hype. But if you look at the trends it all drops in time. I collect this stuff too and will continue to do so, but I’m waiting until retail has been out for awhile before buying any rookie silvers.


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[mc1]

1000 more in blasters
1000 more in value packs
1000 more in retail boxes

Retail from last year wasn’t that hard to find. There’s still tons of it out there. Not in stores, of course.

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by mindcycle

If hobby is already at 1100, the total, once retail is released, isn’t going to be 2000. That might have been close to the total last year, but with a 90% increase in hobby I’m going to guess retail supply will also increase. I bet we’re looking at 3000+ this season, and that might even be conservative. Remember how Prizm retail was next to impossible to find last year? Well since this stuff is basically like printing dollar bills for Panini there’s no way they’re going to let that happen again.

Now if this is his most desirable card on the planet, sure, it’ll be worth something. I still don’t see a $600 card here though. Maybe if he becomes a top 5 guy in the league.. but even if that were to happen it still seems to high to me. Simmons has dropped to that price and he didn’t have autos or RPA’s flooding the market like Doncic will have this season.

All that said, I’ve been wrong before about prizm hype. But if you look at the trends it all drops in time. I collect this stuff too and will continue to do so, but I’m waiting until retail has been out for awhile before buying any rookie silvers.


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Yeah i get what you're saying. But the hype and interest in Prizm just keeps growing. Look at all the people crawling out of the woodwork to get in on FOTL boxes. Sure some of them are only in it for the flip/money but a lot of them will hang on and now become Prizm collectors. We can sit here and debate all day what we think the prices should be but in the end the market will be decided by the people. Maybe they'll come down a lot maybe they wont.

[prospects]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

I can. Because they're hard to hit and boxes are expensive. I believe we covered the odds in another thread. It was 1-50 hobby boxes to hit a Doncic silver. @ $250 x 50 that's $12,500. You are better off buying singles but the price wont come down much from the breakers. Another thing that's been pointed out is he's wanted world wide, large European fan base. Demand is there. Is 1000-2000 really a lot if it's his most desirable card on the planet?

you keep saying this but now doncic silvers are at 400. they keep dropping.

[prospects]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

Yeah i get what you're saying. But the hype and interest in Prizm just keeps growing. Look at all the people crawling out of the woodwork to get in on FOTL boxes. Sure some of them are only in it for the flip/money but a lot of them will hang on and now become Prizm collectors. We can sit here and debate all day what we think the prices should be but in the end the market will be decided by the people. Maybe they'll come down a lot maybe they wont.

and about this post, the hype on blowout lasted all of 2 weeks (FOTL craze)

no more breaks being posted and prizm threads keep falling.

its all about the group breakers with this as it is with every product

[mutigers77]

Great content. Thanks for sharing. Impressed BO moderators haven’t removed the thread already.

[watashiwa05]

Good for the hobby if retail has fewer silvers.
Selfishly...gimme those retail silvers!

[mindcycle]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

Yeah i get what you're saying. But the hype and interest in Prizm just keeps growing. Look at all the people crawling out of the woodwork to get in on FOTL boxes. Sure some of them are only in it for the flip/money but a lot of them will hang on and now become Prizm collectors. We can sit here and debate all day what we think the prices should be but in the end the market will be decided by the people. Maybe they'll come down a lot maybe they wont.

True, no one can see the future. I once thought that $100 for a Ben Simmons silver was absurd, lol


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[mutigers77]

Originally Posted by prospects

and about this post, the hype on blowout lasted all of 2 weeks (FOTL craze)

no more breaks being posted and prizm threads keep falling.

its all about the group breakers with this as it is with every product

The key to this years Prizm success will come down to how it rebounds from
The drop. Every year (and every product) we see a drop within 3-5 weeks of release...then there willl be a bounce back. How much will hinge on how well the rookies are performing. There a TON of new basketball collectors that will happily eat up silvers in quantity.

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by prospects

you keep saying this but now doncic silvers are at 400. they keep dropping.

I think they'll settle between $300-400. That's just my personal opinion of course. Just like anything else the market will get flooded and all the junkies need to get more money for breaks or pay off their credit cards. I never thought they'd stay at $600.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by mc1

1000 more in blasters
1000 more in value packs
1000 more in retail boxes

Retail from last year wasn’t that hard to find. There’s still tons of it out there. Not in stores, of course.

Love it....

OP puts in tons of hard work and thought into his analysis.....

board members just throw out random numbers and state them as if they are fact.


Unless you have some decent evidence backing these claims?

[prospects]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

I think they'll settle between $300-400. That's just my personal opinion of course. Just like anything else the market will get flooded and all the junkies need to get more money for breaks or pay off their credit cards. I never thought they'd stay at $600.

I think I can easily say that the doncic card is the most beautiful card I have ever seen. If bowman draft was not coming out in 10 days, a doncic purple or some boxes would be in my future.

[brettmik59]

Originally Posted by mindcycle

Remember how Prizm retail was next to impossible to find last year? Well since this stuff is basically like printing dollar bills for Panini there’s no way they’re going to let that happen again.

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Bingo. There's no incentive for Panini to reduce the print run of silvers. One wonders if Panini themselves is behind all the silver hype. Having them non-numbered with so much hype is the greatest gravy train Panini could ever ask for.

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by prospects

I think I can easily say that the doncic card is the most beautiful card I have ever seen. If bowman draft was not coming out in 10 days, a doncic purple or some boxes would be in my future.

They knocked it out of the park with this years Prizm design. They're gorgeous cards.

[prospects]

Originally Posted by brettmik59

Bingo. There's no incentive for Panini to reduce the print run of silvers. One wonders if Panini themselves is behind all the silver hype. Having them non-numbered with so much hype is the greatest gravy train Panini could ever ask for.

prizm retail last year for me was pretty dam easy to find.