2017-18 Panini Revolution Estimated Print Runs

[gymratcards]

First off, I'm new to the forum, so thanks for having me. I just posted a short note about myself in the New Members Forum.

I wanted to share with you an analysis I performed today on the estimated print runs for the cards in 2017-18 Panini Revolution. I took the stated pack odds for the un-numbered inserts, collected some data from breaks on the Blowout Cards Box Break Forum and some YouTube breaks, and calculated the print run for each type of card in the set. I thought this would be helpful for those trying to make sense of the different parallel tiers.



Finally, if you would like to check my work and see the sources for the data, here is a link to the Excel Spreadsheet where I performed the calculations.

Hope this is helpful!!

[brandt12]

Did you attempt Prizm?

[gymratcards]

No, I didn’t attempt this for Prizm. I think this method would get very complicated for a product that is available at hobby and retail.

If I get some time I’ll give it a try. It could be that using data from eBay listings is the better way to approach estimating the print runs for silvers, red/white/blue, etc.

[SHowley2003]

Great stuff! Welcome aboard and thanks for sharing.

Side note: So for a single product a rookie participating in this release was asked to sign 551 individual cards? Think of that over the releases throughout Panini. There have been autos in Absolute, Donruss, Prizm, Court Kings, Hoops and Revolution so far (am I missing any?). That means an average rookie may already have signed 1200-2000 cards/stickers for Panini. That's insane!

A) The autograph market is so watered down! and B.) No wonder there are concerns that members of the players' inner circles might be responsible for signing the cards.

[gymratcards]

Thank you, SHowley2003!

One caveat regarding the calculation for the autograph cards. My calculations all assume the same print run for all subjects in a given subset. At this point there is no way to know if Kobe Bryant signed the same number of cards as Julius Randle, or if Jason Tatum and Dwayne Bacon signed the same number of cards. My guess is they did not. There are likely a few SPs in each autograph set.

[smalltown]

Originally Posted by gymratcards

First off, I'm new to the forum, so thanks for having me. I just posted a short note about myself in the New Members Forum.

Welcome to the forum and Great stuff! Love seeing odds like this.

[chris_ac]

I looked at ebay after seeing your numbers and I learned something. Product hasn’t been out a week so maybe an anomaly, but I’ll keep it to myself and keep watching listings.

[gymratcards]

Originally Posted by chris_ac

I looked at ebay after seeing your numbers and I learned something. Product hasn’t been out a week so maybe an anomaly, but I’ll keep it to myself and keep watching listings.

One thing I've noticed is that there hasn't been a single Liftoff Galactic posted on eBay yet. I have seen them for all the other insert sets. I'm starting to question if they exist.

[Gurds]

Originally Posted by gymratcards

One thing I've noticed is that there hasn't been a single Liftoff Galactic posted on eBay yet. I have seen them for all the other insert sets. I'm starting to question if they exist.

This Galactic was pulled at my LCS.

[dizzy4111]

Interesting that there seem to be a few more Galactics than Lavas.

[Jpayne7787]

Originally Posted by dizzy4111

Interesting that there seem to be a few more Galactics than Lavas.

Isn’t that what it’s suppsed to be tho?

[dizzy4111]

Originally Posted by Jpayne7787

Isn’t that what it’s suppsed to be tho?

Speculation has been that there are between 5-10 Galactics. Being the big hit of the product I assumed it would be SSP'd lower than the Lava.


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[RSCard]

Originally Posted by dizzy4111

Speculation has been that there are between 5-10 Galactics. Being the big hit of the product I assumed it would be SSP'd lower than the Lava.


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Same here, galactic is the card that everyone's chasing for in this product due to its rarity and not numbered so it would be better if it's <10.

Great job op! I thought those non-numbered parallels like astro, fractal have a higher print run. Seems like panini doesn't produce many cases compared to other products?

[dizzy4111]

Originally Posted by RSCard

Same here, galactic is the card that everyone's chasing for in this product due to its rarity and not numbered so it would be better if it's <10.

Great job op! I thought those non-numbered parallels like astro, fractal have a higher print run. Seems like panini doesn't produce many cases compared to other products?

I mean, 13 is still very limited, and with the Galactics looking so nice I'm sure they'll still hold solid value.


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[RSCard]

Originally Posted by dizzy4111

I mean, 13 is still very limited, and with the Galactics looking so nice I'm sure they'll still hold solid value.


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Yes, definitely. I still saw many people busting boxes for the galactic in lcs.

[Adam85]

I busted an 8 Box Inner Case and hit 2 Lava's and 1 Galactic.

[gymratcards]

Originally Posted by Adam85

I busted an 8 Box Inner Case and hit 2 Lava's and 1 Galactic.

Wow, you crushed the odds!

[gymratcards]

Originally Posted by Gurds

This Galactic was pulled at my LCS.

That’s a great looking card. Any idea if the owner is looking to sell it?

[Oldschool42]

Originally Posted by Adam85

I busted an 8 Box Inner Case and hit 2 Lava's and 1 Galactic.

What did you pull?

[yiguiri2002]

Thanks for sharing! Between you and ProtonPills, you had it covered.

I think your Galactic estimations are correct: I estimated you need 210 cases for a set of Rookies/Vets and 340 cases for a set of any of the Inserts. That 8 to 13 ratio seems correct on that end.

The only thing that makes me doubtful is, will they actually produce almost 3000 cases of this stuff? Another thing to consider is that Galactics are much tougher to pull now - there will be cases with not a single one in them.

[Frankp2311]

Anyone think the lava parallel will catch on? I don’t think it pops enough, but I haven’t actually seen one in hand. Opinions?

[Bruvydsb]

Originally Posted by Frankp2311

Anyone think the lava parallel will catch on? I don’t think it pops enough, but I haven’t actually seen one in hand. Opinions?

Haven't seen one in hand yet either.

Hope they are nice, I bought a Juwan Evans one the other day (via Ebay).

[Avi]

That's great info. Thank you gymratcards!

[gymratcards]

Originally Posted by Avi

That's great info. Thank you gymratcards!

Thanks! I like doing that kind of stuff. Part problem solving and part investigative.

[773cards]

Originally Posted by gymratcards

No, I didn’t attempt this for Prizm. I think this method would get very complicated for a product that is available at hobby and retail.

If I get some time I’ll give it a try. It could be that using data from eBay listings is the better way to approach estimating the print runs for silvers, red/white/blue, etc.

If you could that'd be great. I'm sure a ton of people of this board would like to know. The estimated number for silver prizm is 500-1000. Maybe we can get a smaller range. Good Luck Gymratcards!