Sports betting thread

[ksemmel]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I have no idea. I've seen some guy tailing Haslametrics with 3 or more points of variance and I think it was like 60 something percent which is really good.

I've done well on Kenpom. I don't really track bets but I'm up slightly overall

Here's one for today (another seemingly obvious pick that will probably blow up)

FSU ML over IU.

When IU played Texas (a team with really good defensive bigs) they got crushed on the boards and ultimately blown out. Their best player TJD is 6'9 but not a great rebounder or paint defender.

FSU has a ton of size and is a really good paint defense and rebounding team.

Neither team is really that good shooting but FSU has a much better paint offense than IU has a paint defense so I'm taking them

Isn’t the line -3.5?

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by ksemmel

Isn’t the line -3.5?

I took it early this morning and got -150 on the FSU ML but I'd still take it.

I don't bet spreads unless the average of the 3 models is 3 or more points higher or lower than the book

[indyguy]

5-2 on live bets last night.

The Wisconsin/Rhode Island took a different spin right after I placed two live bets and those were my two losses on the night.

Big game tonight with San Diego State and Arizona State.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by indyguy

5-2 on live bets last night.

The Wisconsin/Rhode Island took a different spin right after I placed two live bets and those were my two losses on the night.

Big game tonight with San Diego State and Arizona State.

I went 6-2. 3-2 on pre game and won all 3 live bets.

I got Maryland +20.5 midway through the 1st. Texas Tech -4.5 near the end of the game and St Francis +13.5.

Sweated out that FSU/IU game. What a crazy finish. Also hit on GT +2 pregame.

I've got my eye on SF -16 today. Nothing really sticking out value-wise but SF chucks a million 3s a game and Long Beach is terrible at defending them. Wouldn't be surprised if this one hit the O as well.

Might just save it until live

[indyguy]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I went 6-2. 3-2 on pre game and won all 3 live bets.

I got Maryland +20.5 midway through the 1st. Texas Tech -4.5 near the end of the game and St Francis +13.5.

Sweated out that FSU/IU game. What a crazy finish. Also hit on GT +2 pregame.

I've got my eye on SF -16 today. Nothing really sticking out value-wise but SF chucks a million 3s a game and Long Beach is terrible at defending them. Wouldn't be surprised if this one hit the O as well.

Might just save it until live

I think I'm going to keep an eye on the ECU/North Florida game. North Florida scores 49% of its points from 3s, but only shoots about 20 per game. ECU only gives up about 25% from 3s, so ECU could end this one pretty quick if they are defending the perimeter.

[patchgenie]

i'm going with peter barrett for ufc. chase hooper is 17 years old i think. barrett was fine against zalal, who is way better than hooper.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by indyguy

I think I'm going to keep an eye on the ECU/North Florida game. North Florida scores 49% of its points from 3s, but only shoots about 20 per game. ECU only gives up about 25% from 3s, so ECU could end this one pretty quick if they are defending the perimeter.

Coppin St line seems too high at +19.5.

Also think the ASU/SDST O142 has some value

[AlexHunter]

Fun little gulfstream on-the-toilet bet.


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[indyguy]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Coppin St line seems too high at +19.5.

Also think the ASU/SDST O142 has some value

I'm researching Coppin State and they look like a mess!

35 out of every 100 possessions, they shoot a 3. 42.5% of their total shots are 3s.

But, they only shoot 27.9% from 3!

On top of that, only 33.9% of their shots are in the "near proximity" range, which is layups, dunks, and tip-ins.

That means they are shooting the rest of their shots mid-range, which are analytically the worst shots in the game and they only shoot 32% from that range.

Anything outside of the paint and this team has a tough time shooting.

They have played all road games: Duke, GW, Drexel, and Georgetown. Their best game was actually against Duke, a 10 point loss.

I'm going to keep an eye on this team. I need to see them in action.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by indyguy

I'm researching Coppin State and they look like a mess!

35 out of every 100 possessions, they shoot a 3. 42.5% of their total shots are 3s.

But, they only shoot 27.9% from 3!

On top of that, only 33.9% of their shots are in the "near proximity" range, which is layups, dunks, and tip-ins.

That means they are shooting the rest of their shots mid-range, which are analytically the worst shots in the game and they only shoot 32% from that range.

Anything outside of the paint and this team has a tough time shooting.

They have played all road games: Duke, GW, Drexel, and Georgetown. Their best game was actually against Duke, a 10 point loss.

I'm going to keep an eye on this team. I need to see them in action.

Yea their actual stats were kind of frightening but they do shoot a ton of 3s and UNCG isn't particularly good at defending them so they may start hitting and the way to beat a spread is with 3pt shooting.

I've seen spreads from 13-17 between the 3 big models so that seemed like solid value.

I also just found Sagarin have you seen his model? It's ELO based instead of using the 4 factors

[AlexHunter]

That Coppin state tho


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[AlexHunter]

Placed a nice little live bet on OR ST-3.5 to try to double up with the Portland +15.5 lock bet. Let’s hope OR ST can come back and win by the 7 or 8 that I had them pegged for.


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[JMarchand1981]

I might lose it but I put $100 on the pats at +1050 about five minutes ago.

[AlexHunter]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

I might lose it but I put $100 on the pats at +1050 about five minutes ago.

At that point in the game, it wasn’t a terrible bet to make at all. One or two small things and it would be a one score game rn.

At this point, I’m rooting for my 40-1 and 60-1 player specials on the rams side to start hitting. Let’s get some of these other WRs and RBs TDs and even one hit saves the day for NFL

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[indyguy]

I didn't end up touching any college bball last night. Though, I was surprised at Coppin State!

I put a few live bets into Southern Miss football. Took them at -8.5 and -7.5 in the second half of the game, so I hit on both of those and called it a night.

[AlexHunter]

Yesterday’s tiny parlay of basketball almost hit. At least I scooped up all the individual wins.



I


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[AlexHunter]

And I forgot I even made these bets





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[Niels50]

Originally Posted by AlexHunter

And I forgot I even made these bets





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How do you like bet now?




My NFL bets last night:

Rams -4.5
Goff over 261.5 passing yards
Akers over 48.5 Rushing
Kupp over 5.5 receptions


Ended up making like $20 total. Kupp was one reception away.... Goff bet was dumb

[AlexHunter]

Originally Posted by Niels50

How do you like bet now?




My NFL bets last night:

Rams -4.5
Goff over 261.5 passing yards
Akers over 48.5 Rushing
Kupp over 5.5 receptions


Ended up making like $20 total. Kupp was one reception away.... Goff bet was dumb

I few dumb betting yards for both Goff yards and Cam yards. Hit a micro win with a Goff +0.5 rushing tds and the Akers yardages. Ended up +34 overall yesterday and played the full $100. Wasted a lot on dumb #@#@#@#@ like who will score first and superstar game props.

I enjoy bet now. It starts a bit clunky and some ways to add to betslip and betting itself could be a little easier and streamlined. Bovada is still pretty much my main but I hopped over to betnow yesterday because I wanted to build a few of my own props and you can actually do that instead of whatever props are offered.


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[ksemmel]

Nova down 8, 10 min into the first. Semms like a good time to live bet them to win as they are ice cold from the floor right now whereas Gtown can't miss.

[ksemmel]

Originally Posted by ksemmel

Nova down 8, 10 min into the first. Semms like a good time to live bet them to win as they are ice cold from the floor right now whereas Gtown can't miss.

Maybe not. Gtown literally can’t miss

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by ksemmel

Nova down 8, 10 min into the first. Semms like a good time to live bet them to win as they are ice cold from the floor right now whereas Gtown can't miss.

Originally Posted by ksemmel

Maybe not. Gtown literally can’t miss

I put quite a bit of money on nova at +160 at half time. It will deliver a little over $2k if I win.

[AlexHunter]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

I put quite a bit of money on nova at +160 at half time. It will deliver a little over $2k if I win.

I hope you hit that! I just want the under to stay there and I I’ve double digits with gtown so I’m fine if they lose. Was too scared to live bet anything.


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[AlexHunter]

I’ve been hitting real good recently on 4 and 5 point teaser parlays in College hoops. My main parlays tend to miss a leg but these help recoup those losses.






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[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

I put quite a bit of money on nova at +160 at half time. It will deliver a little over $2k if I win.

This is looking pretty decent right now.

Originally Posted by AlexHunter

I hope you hit that! I just want the under to stay there and I I’ve double digits with gtown so I’m fine if they lose. Was too scared to live bet anything.


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Thank you. Looks like the under pays and 16.5 should be good if grown decides that it's out of touch.