✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[Qubits]

Originally Posted by oddstuff

I've seen one seller with quantities of that ticket at 100 per.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think its particularly rare or a great "investment" I just wanted one so I bought one.

This is the second ticket I've ever bought. This one was the first:

[oddstuff]

It's not a bad buy at all. I've seen people pay more for much worse tickets than the best player's 1st hr ticket. It's just not a ticket to go all in on when there's an ample supply of it seems. There's probably a good amount of that ticket sitting with PSA right now waiting for grading/slabbing.

[Qubits]

Originally Posted by oddstuff

It's not a bad buy at all. I've seen people pay more for much worse tickets than the best player's 1st hr ticket. It's just not a ticket to go all in on when there's an ample supply of it seems. There's probably a good amount of that ticket sitting with PSA right now waiting for grading/slabbing.

I agree with you there, anyone paying $500 for PSA 9 copies of that ticket is making a mistake.

[Mister2Bits]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

How are others on here adjusting their buying strategy? Anyone think there is going to be a big discount on Ohtani RC in the off season?

Patience on Ohtani cards.

Look for deals on other players since it seems most are selling everyone else at discounts to buy Ohtani.

[SaveMeTheGum]

Finally finally finally got this one in hand!

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Mister2Bits

Patience on Ohtani cards.

Look for deals on other players since it seems most are selling everyone else at discounts to buy Ohtani.

I am a buy and hold long term type of guy. I only collect current players (you can see my PC in my signature line). I am very skeptical that any of my PC players are good long term holds (I mean Soto had an MVP caliber year and it did not move the needle on his cards this year) that will go up in the future. And I don't need the money, so I am not planning on selling either.

Besides Ohtani, Judge, Trout, Betts and a few others...I am just not sure there is any long term potential anymore.

If you are buying low to flip short term, I am sure there are plenty of deals out there.

For me at this point its Ohtani and everything else is just dabbling.

[SoCalsFinest]

Originally Posted by SaveMeTheGum

Finally finally finally got this one in hand!

Nice!

[Trueblue]

Beautiful cards!!

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by SaveMeTheGum

Finally finally finally got this one in hand!

Wow

[Qubits]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I am a buy and hold long term type of guy. I only collect current players (you can see my PC in my signature line). I am very skeptical that any of my PC players are good long term holds (I mean Soto had an MVP caliber year and it did not move the needle on his cards this year) that will go up in the future. And I don't need the money, so I am not planning on selling either.

Besides Ohtani, Judge, Trout, Betts and a few others...I am just not sure there is any long term potential anymore.

If you are buying low to flip short term, I am sure there are plenty of deals out there.

For me at this point its Ohtani and everything else is just dabbling.

Doing a detailed inventory of my cards really opened my eyes to a few things. The biggest thing that jumped out at me is that for playing days modern/ultra-modern pickups still in either my PC or my tradebait inventory I am up 64% value-wise on Ohtani and down 37% on everyone else.

There are guys that play right now other than Shohei that I'd love to get big cards of but to be honest I'm almost certain I can do that far cheaper towards the tail end of their careers so I'm holding off for now.

Part of the issue is that the prospecting/rookie market is just insane. It used to be you'd buy a young player's cards relatively cheap and if he ended up great they'd go up in value. Now it seems prospects are priced like HOFers before they even make their MLB debut and if they don't perform like HOFers (and often even if they do) their cards tank over the first 2-3 years of their career as everyone moves on to chase the next big thing.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Qubits

Doing a detailed inventory of my cards really opened my eyes to a few things. The biggest thing that jumped out at me is that for playing days modern/ultra-modern pickups still in either my PC or my tradebait inventory I am up 64% value-wise on Ohtani and down 37% on everyone else.

There are guys that play right now other than Shohei that I'd love to get big cards of but to be honest I'm almost certain I can do that far cheaper towards the tail end of their careers so I'm holding off for now.

Part of the issue is that the prospecting/rookie market is just insane. It used to be you'd buy a young player's cards relatively cheap and if he ended up great they'd go up in value. Now it seems prospects are priced like HOFers before they even make their MLB debut and if they don't perform like HOFers (and often even if they do) their cards tank over the first 2-3 years of their career as everyone moves on to chase the next big thing.

What you are describing seems problematic to me! I don't do breaks or buy wax. I only buy singles. In general the market seems broken. New wax is very over produced and is likely to have a low yield...for me it would probably better to go to the casino and play poker (both in entertainment value and in monetary value). And singles for 99% of players seem to go down from when they come out.

Even if you pick right and the player you choose to collect has an all star year, it does not seem to move the needle that much.

At this point Ohtani cards are very expensive, but also seem to have the largest market and long term potential to retain value or even go up. Plus he is the most likeable player in the game right now.

He is already likely a HOF, and with a WS win or two and a few more MVPs he is going to be the player of this generation. I see him being the next Ken Griffey Jr. in terms of long term collectability.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Mister2Bits

Patience on Ohtani cards.

Look for deals on other players since it seems most are selling everyone else at discounts to buy Ohtani.

The risk, if someone wants his cards, is that he kicks butt throughout the playoffs while winning a World Series and putting his cards at yet another level. There are certainly deals aplenty on others, especially if those others do serious playoff damage.

[Absknicks]

Dude was stat padding his ass off this last week or two. Stealing bases in meaningless games against the Rockies up 5-6 runs. Lol. Guess he wanted to distract from the fact that his hitting numbers were so far below Judge's.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by Absknicks

Dude was stat padding his ass off this last week or two. Stealing bases in meaningless games against the Rockies up 5-6 runs. Lol. Guess he wanted to distract from the fact that his hitting numbers were so far below Judge's.

Heritage ROA up above is LOVELY!


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[Stringmusic]

Originally Posted by SaveMeTheGum

Finally finally finally got this one in hand!

What.a.card!

Congrats!

[redauto5]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

What you are describing seems problematic to me! I don't do breaks or buy wax. I only buy singles. In general the market seems broken. New wax is very over produced and is likely to have a low yield...for me it would probably better to go to the casino and play poker (both in entertainment value and in monetary value). And singles for 99% of players seem to go down from when they come out.



Even if you pick right and the player you choose to collect has an all star year, it does not seem to move the needle that much.



At this point Ohtani cards are very expensive, but also seem to have the largest market and long term potential to retain value or even go up. Plus he is the most likeable player in the game right now.



He is already likely a HOF, and with a WS win or two and a few more MVPs he is going to be the player of this generation. I see him being the next Ken Griffey Jr. in terms of long term collectability.

This has always been the way, few players maintain long term value. That said, there are generational macro trends that MATTER in these conversations that you may not be privy to as you didn't collect in the wayback, am I remembering that correctly?

The way way back was to me before the big explosion in the mid 80's, before card shows etc. My impression of this era is that it was a slow burn to increased prices as the hobby coalesced into a proper industry.

The mid 80s to early 90s was the first explosion in value of just about everything that was printed BEFORE that time period. Yes, '86 Canseco's were pumped big time and yes '84 Mattingly's had a huge increase in value. But people that bought nice vintage and prewar before the mid 80s did very well.

The mid 90s to about 2010 were very collector centric, as the masses had moved away from the hobby. The term "junk wax" was coined and all that stuff lost most of its value. Vintage and prewar continued a slow climb up in value.

2010-2021 was the next big bull run, culminating in the COVID blow off top. If I remember you got into the hobby during COVID, so you've experienced mostly a down macro market. Lots of people have already exited the market but it seems to me this hobby expansion may end up being more sticky than the last one, though on a smaller base overall. If I remember correctly by 1995 like 80% of card shops had closed their doors. Fanatics seems hellbent on their "10x" come hell or high water, and more and more speculators/gamblers have entered the hobby as that's what Fanatics is catering to. What you're speaking of is largely a result of this, and I'm beginning to shy away from untramodern completely as supply is just completely out of control.

90s Inserts have had a huge explosion in demand over the last 5 or so years, and again vintage and prewar did very well through 2021 but that stuff is well off its COVID peaks for the most part.

You, being a current player collector, have a conundrum to figure out. Will you ride the crazy supply train because you like the players that are currently successful and hope the hobby continues to expand? Or will you change direction as you realize most of the stuff you want to buy will probably lose value over the long term?

It seems you like to buy into the top 4 or 5 players of the current season, and next season if those players are different you will buy into the highest performing players of next year. This is a fun way to collect, you are riding hype waves left and right. But you have to expect you are buying at or near tops in a lot of these players cards.

My guess is the hobby will have to go through another major contraction for the next big opportunity to come around macro-wise. Will you stick around through that contraction and see the fruit from it?

TBP has been through both of the major cycles and has held on to lots of stuff he got cheap through the lean years of those cycles and now has an amazing collection without ever infusing large amounts of money into his collection. Of course, this has been a 40 year process lol.

Have fun!

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[Lonewolf]

Originally Posted by Absknicks

Dude was stat padding his ass off this last week or two. Stealing bases in meaningless games against the Rockies up 5-6 runs. Lol. Guess he wanted to distract from the fact that his hitting numbers were so far below Judge's.

Username checks out, LOL

[Ziggy]

Meanwhile Topps is going nuts trying to sell 50/50 cards. They already did an all time high on the Topps Now cards but now a 50/50 set? Yikes.

[Jeter1020]

I want Ohtani to pitch next year because I really do think he’s our modern version of Babe Ruth.


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[Bcr]

Originally Posted by redauto5

This has always been the way, few players maintain long term value. That said, there are generational macro trends that MATTER in these conversations that you may not be privy to as you didn't collect in the wayback, am I remembering that correctly?

The way way back was to me before the big explosion in the mid 80's, before card shows etc. My impression of this era is that it was a slow burn to increased prices as the hobby coalesced into a proper industry.

The mid 80s to early 90s was the first explosion in value of just about everything that was printed BEFORE that time period. Yes, '86 Canseco's were pumped big time and yes '84 Mattingly's had a huge increase in value. But people that bought nice vintage and prewar before the mid 80s did very well.

The mid 90s to about 2010 were very collector centric, as the masses had moved away from the hobby. The term "junk wax" was coined and all that stuff lost most of its value. Vintage and prewar continued a slow climb up in value.

2010-2021 was the next big bull run, culminating in the COVID blow off top. If I remember you got into the hobby during COVID, so you've experienced mostly a down macro market. Lots of people have already exited the market but it seems to me this hobby expansion may end up being more sticky than the last one, though on a smaller base overall. If I remember correctly by 1995 like 80% of card shops had closed their doors. Fanatics seems hellbent on their "10x" come hell or high water, and more and more speculators/gamblers have entered the hobby as that's what Fanatics is catering to. What you're speaking of is largely a result of this, and I'm beginning to shy away from untramodern completely as supply is just completely out of control.

90s Inserts have had a huge explosion in demand over the last 5 or so years, and again vintage and prewar did very well through 2021 but that stuff is well off its COVID peaks for the most part.

You, being a current player collector, have a conundrum to figure out. Will you ride the crazy supply train because you like the players that are currently successful and hope the hobby continues to expand? Or will you change direction as you realize most of the stuff you want to buy will probably lose value over the long term?

It seems you like to buy into the top 4 or 5 players of the current season, and next season if those players are different you will buy into the highest performing players of next year. This is a fun way to collect, you are riding hype waves left and right. But you have to expect you are buying at or near tops in a lot of these players cards.

My guess is the hobby will have to go through another major contraction for the next big opportunity to come around macro-wise. Will you stick around through that contraction and see the fruit from it?

TBP has been through both of the major cycles and has held on to lots of stuff he got cheap through the lean years of those cycles and now has an amazing collection without ever infusing large amounts of money into his collection. Of course, this has been a 40 year process lol.

Have fun!

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

Well said

[Qubits]

Originally Posted by redauto5

You, being a current player collector, have a conundrum to figure out. Will you ride the crazy supply train because you like the players that are currently successful and hope the hobby continues to expand? Or will you change direction as you realize most of the stuff you want to buy will probably lose value over the long term?

I know this post was for Sean but this resonated with me because I had to figure that out a solution to this conundrum myself this year.

What I decided is that the only current day player I'm willing to spend "real" money on going forward is Shohei Ohtani. He's my favorite player and hell, if his cards are worth less in 10 or 15 years so what, I had fun.

I would have Mookie in that list as well but I already have a Heritage Real One Auto and a 1st BCA and I'm happy with those two cards.

Most of my spending this year has been in vintage and pre-war.

[Trueblue]

I've gotten to the point where all my hobby dollars go to that Shohey guy. He's reached a ceiling so high that you can't even propose (without laughing) that a prospect has a shot to reach it.

I even bought some boxes of 50/50 with eyes wide open to the likely blood bath I'm walking into. I watched every AB this season like a crackhead. Opening these packs will be a great way to cap the year. What is this hobby if you're not having fun?

[redauto5]

Originally Posted by Qubits

I know this post was for Sean but this resonated with me because I had to figure that out a solution to this conundrum myself this year.



What I decided is that the only current day player I'm willing to spend "real" money on going forward is Shohei Ohtani. He's my favorite player and hell, if his cards are worth less in 10 or 15 years so what, I had fun.



I would have Mookie in that list as well but I already have a Heritage Real One Auto and a 1st BCA and I'm happy with those two cards.



Most of my spending this year has been in vintage and pre-war.

Fully agreed on Sho. And if one had to pick another place to put money in modern cards I'd say early Mookie autos (in other words his only autos) would be toward the top of that list!

My guess is high end early Trout stuff will eventually be a good place as well, but it seems some more froth has to be removed from those cards yet before it becomes a reasonable spot to park modern collector funds. I'm looking forward to the day I begin to collect Trout in earnest hehe.

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[SidVish]

Originally Posted by SaveMeTheGum

Finally finally finally got this one in hand!

Definitely worth the wait. Congrats!

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[Hellcat]

Originally Posted by Jeter1020

I want Ohtani to pitch next year because I really do think he’s our modern version of Babe Ruth.


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Correction this is the first time we have seen anyone do what he's doing! Babe played against plumbers,electricians all white dudes. He was grossly overweight no comparison!