✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[NYBBFAN]

Yeah bWAR was 7.3 yesterday, 7.8 today. Crazy!

[ensbergcollecto]

first of all, this is not a knock on otani. The guy is amazing and I think yesterday is easily one of the top 10 individual games in baseball history.

How many steals would otani have this year if the rules had not been changed (larger base, limited throws to first, etc.)

History won't care, but do current fans factor that in at all?

[Qubits]

Originally Posted by ensbergcollecto

first of all, this is not a knock on otani. The guy is amazing and I think yesterday is easily one of the top 10 individual games in baseball history.

How many steals would otani have this year if the rules had not been changed (larger base, limited throws to first, etc.)

History won't care, but do current fans factor that in at all?

Before yesterday, the most steals in a 50 HR season was a tie between Willie Mays and AROD at 24. The rule changes certainly factored in to this season from Ohtani but more than doubling that record is impressive even with the changes.

[zworykin]

Originally Posted by Qubits

Before yesterday, the most steals in a 50 HR season was a tie between Willie Mays and AROD at 24. The rule changes certainly factored in to this season from Ohtani but more than doubling that record is impressive even with the changes.

I mean come on, they shortened the basepaths by 15 feet. And pitchers aren't even allowed to LOOK at the runners. It's TOTALLY easy to steal a base now. Even I could do it. So the numbers are meaningless!


(Have I got that right, stolen-base-truthers?)

[fulltritty]

Originally Posted by ensbergcollecto

first of all, this is not a knock on otani. The guy is amazing and I think yesterday is easily one of the top 10 individual games in baseball history.

How many steals would otani have this year if the rules had not been changed (larger base, limited throws to first, etc.)

History won't care, but do current fans factor that in at all?

I think it has to do more with him not pitching. While he pitched, his highest SB in a season was 26. Do you think he's going to risk injury to his legs by stealing this many bases when he goes back to pitching?

[ensbergcollecto]

Originally Posted by zworykin

I mean come on, they shortened the basepaths by 15 feet. And pitchers aren't even allowed to LOOK at the runners. It's TOTALLY easy to steal a base now. Even I could do it. So the numbers are meaningless!


(Have I got that right, stolen-base-truthers?)

are you implying that the insane increase in stolen bases across the league is not because of rule changes?

[dantheman514]

Originally Posted by TGCollector

Dodgers dropped this 50/50 video on YouTube. Pretty cool

https://youtu.be/BGorp6kh5As?si=e9UN5G6i8L_Dply5

This is so cool!

[JRX]

Originally Posted by ensbergcollecto

first of all, this is not a knock on otani. The guy is amazing and I think yesterday is easily one of the top 10 individual games in baseball history.

How many steals would otani have this year if the rules had not been changed (larger base, limited throws to first, etc.)

History won't care, but do current fans factor that in at all?

His previous high under the old rules was 26, that's with 46HR. So even if the rules didn't change, he was certainly capable of doing 50/30 at least imo.

[zworykin]

Originally Posted by ensbergcollecto

are you implying that the insane increase in stolen bases across the league is not because of rule changes?

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/hisb3.shtml

I'm saying just as many bases (give or take) were stolen in the late 80s and the late 90s as well. Yes, the changes contributed. Management style, player preferences, player athletic ability, etc., all contribute too - as they always have, as illustrated by the totals varying from year to year (and reaching the current totals back in seasons without the new bases and rules). It would be a fool's errand to try to quantify the impact of each.

And in any event, the new numbers are not "insane."

[msucollector4]

This is awesome. What an insane talent. MLB really needs to push for him to be everywhere this off season. Every single add and billboard

[21Pittsburgh58]

I'm so glad that I have some Ohtani rookie cards. Mostly low-end base, but still about 20-30 of them.

What a season! Yes, the changes to the rules absolutely helped with SB's, but so did him not pitching and I agree that in a pitching/hitting year, 30 might be about tops. But this is SHOHEI so who knows what he can do yet as the man is simply amazing at baseball

I am excited to see him in the playoffs! His contract seems like a bargain (for now)

EDIT: Really interesting article on ESPN: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/sto...akdown-history

EDIT TO THE EDIT: Here's an article on his stolen bases: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...ngeles-dodgers

[ensbergcollecto]

Originally Posted by zworykin

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/hisb3.shtml

I'm saying just as many bases (give or take) were stolen in the late 80s and the late 90s as well. Yes, the changes contributed. Management style, player preferences, player athletic ability, etc., all contribute too - as they always have, as illustrated by the totals varying from year to year (and reaching the current totals back in seasons without the new bases and rules). It would be a fool's errand to try to quantify the impact of each.

And in any event, the new numbers are not "insane."

stolen bases jumped from 2500 to 3500 in one season based in the new rules. We can debate the definition of "insane" but to imply the rule changes did not significantly impact the totals is just being disingenuous.

[rms13]

Originally Posted by zworykin

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/hisb3.shtml

I'm saying just as many bases (give or take) were stolen in the late 80s and the late 90s as well. Yes, the changes contributed. Management style, player preferences, player athletic ability, etc., all contribute too - as they always have, as illustrated by the totals varying from year to year (and reaching the current totals back in seasons without the new bases and rules). It would be a fool's errand to try to quantify the impact of each.

And in any event, the new numbers are not "insane."

Anyone that watches baseball can tell you it’s easier to steal now. Rickey Henderson was successful on 80% of his career attempts. Ohtani has a 92% success rate this year. Ohtani’s second steal last night should have been defensive indifference so the official scoring is different now as well. What he’s doing is great but under old rules he wouldn’t have 50 steals.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by 21Pittsburgh58

His contract seems like a bargain (for now)

I don’t know - $700 million is a pretty big bag of cash.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by ensbergcollecto

first of all, this is not a knock on otani. The guy is amazing and I think yesterday is easily one of the top 10 individual games in baseball history.

How many steals would otani have this year if the rules had not been changed (larger base, limited throws to first, etc.)

History won't care, but do current fans factor that in at all?

probably 13

[ScooterD]

Originally Posted by ensbergcollecto

stolen bases jumped from 2500 to 3500 in one season based in the new rules. We can debate the definition of "insane" but to imply the rule changes did not significantly impact the totals is just being disingenuous.

Would it be fair to say that part of the increase in SB is that players are attempting more? I mean, today’s pitchers aren’t great at holding runners, and catcher’s aren’t great at throwing them out. While the rule changes helped the runners, the runners’ willingness to attempt to steal may be proportionally impacted too.

[89Giants]

Originally Posted by rms13

Anyone that watches baseball can tell you it’s easier to steal now. Rickey Henderson was successful on 80% of his career attempts. Ohtani has a 92% success rate this year. Ohtani’s second steal last night should have been defensive indifference so the official scoring is different now as well. What he’s doing is great but under old rules he wouldn’t have 50 steals.

It's also easier to steal when you are a DH and don't use any energy playing the field.

[ThoseBackPages]

they should ban SBs next year

[ensbergcollecto]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

Would it be fair to say that part of the increase in SB is that players are attempting more? I mean, today’s pitchers aren’t great at holding runners, and catcher’s aren’t great at throwing them out. While the rule changes helped the runners, the runners’ willingness to attempt to steal may be proportionally impacted too.

absolutely. i would counter that players are attempting more because of the rule changes though.


again, none of this is to take away from ohtani. Just wondered if 2 seasons ago this would have been a 50/30 season instead

[fulltritty]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

they should ban SBs next year

I'd be curious to see if stolen bases went down a bit if they got rid of the 2 throws over only rule.

[ThoseBackPages]

i wonder if they should let fat guys take bigger leads

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by fulltritty

I'd be curious to see if stolen bases went down a bit if they got rid of the 2 throws over only rule.

i think they'd go down about 87%

[JRX]

Originally Posted by zworykin

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/hisb3.shtml

I'm saying just as many bases (give or take) were stolen in the late 80s and the late 90s as well. Yes, the changes contributed. Management style, player preferences, player athletic ability, etc., all contribute too - as they always have, as illustrated by the totals varying from year to year (and reaching the current totals back in seasons without the new bases and rules). It would be a fool's errand to try to quantify the impact of each.

And in any event, the new numbers are not "insane."

Yeah but in the 80s they were all doing coke

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by JRX

Yeah but in the 80s they were all doing coke

ROCK Raines!

[Rage]

Originally Posted by 89Giants

It's also easier to steal when you are a DH and don't use any energy playing the field.

Which is why stolen base leaders are always DHs.....wait what?