✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[PFF100]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I agree! Price is based on supply and demand. So do you think there are a bunch of people busting 2018 wax increasing the absolute supply of Ohtani cards since spring training? Do you think there are more people selling Ohtani cards since spring training? Or do you think demand has gone down since spring training? I'm of the belief that there are more sellers than buyers in today's market driving prices down. I am just not entirely sure the reason why. My guess is it is a demand issue.

I think my point is that Ohtani is out performing expectations this year...and demand should have increased...but it did not. Do buyers think his performance will fall off? Do buyers think his card prices are heading down?

If you take a look at Aaron Judge cards his prices have increased dramatically. I assume the price increased due to increased demand as buyers think his card prices will go up in the future.

What about Mike Trout? His cards have been taking a nose dive. His demand is going down as future expectations are adjusted down.

I think the case of Judge and Trout are very easy to explain. Not so much with Ohtani in my opinion.

But I am certainly taking advantage of the current market. I am able to buy SP cards now at the same price point of base from last year. That is a huge win in my book.

Now of you were buying PSA10 base RC cards last year you are way under water.

Are you the one snatching up the sps I’ve been bidding on


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[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by PFF100

Are you the one snatching up the sps I’ve been bidding on


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I doubt it! I just posted my last pick ups on the previous page.

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[PFF100]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I doubt it! I just posted my last pick ups on the previous page.

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I saw. I always appreciate your pickups, we have the same taste in collecting.


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[NYBBFAN]

Sean, I don’t know why you’re obsessed with prices and value on a day-to-day basis. Collect, and be happy.

You can’t look at Ohtani’s prices in a vacuum, it has to be contrasted to the rest of the card market. Think of it like OPS+.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by NYBBFAN

Sean, I don’t know why you’re obsessed with prices and value on a day-to-day basis. Collect, and be happy.

You can’t look at Ohtani’s prices in a vacuum, it has to be contrasted to the rest of the card market. Think of it like OPS+.

Will do my best to collect and be happy! I am super happy watching Ohtani having an amazing year!

[Twalk1975]

I do not grade cards, and only really buy 9's or raw, so slabs are hardly my area of expertise. Help me understand how you're getting to the conclusion that any raw Ohtani base card should have been graded now if it was good enough. It looks like 17k of the 700 base have been graded at PSA (I don't even know where to look for other grading companies). That's out of what, several hundred thousand copies of that card? Let's assume 25% is unopened, that still leaves a lot of them ungraded. I'd bet I've owned 40 copies of that card and never sent one for grading. It's entirely possible I'm missing something here though.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by Twalk1975

I do not grade cards, and only really buy 9's or raw, so slabs are hardly my area of expertise. Help me understand how you're getting to the conclusion that any raw Ohtani base card should have been graded now if it was good enough. It looks like 17k of the 700 base have been graded at PSA (I don't even know where to look for other grading companies). That's out of what, several hundred thousand copies of that card? Let's assume 25% is unopened, that still leaves a lot of them ungraded. I'd bet I've owned 40 copies of that card and never sent one for grading. It's entirely possible I'm missing something here though.

I think what was being referenced back a ways was related to any non-base cards that are not graded should be suspect as to why.

For example, if somebody is selling a #700 Black and it is raw, why would that not be graded by now and/or to maximize profit? Doesn't mean it's not an awesome card, it just means more inspection is required.

At least that is how I read it.

There are literally millions of Ohtani base cards...

[Twalk1975]

Originally Posted by NYRE2PECT

I think what was being referenced back a ways was related to any non-base cards that are not graded should be suspect as to why.

For example, if somebody is selling a #700 Black and it is raw, why would that not be graded by now and/or to maximize profit? Doesn't mean it's not an awesome card, it just means more inspection is required.

At least that is now I read it.

There are literally millions of Ohtani base cards...

It says even base. And I bring it up because I'm interested in just how prevalent grading is. I get it that a higher percentage of a low numbered card's print run is going to be graded, but I'm interested in stuff like non numbered SPs and SSPs. If all base Ohtani 700's that should have been graded have been, then some of the estimated print runs on some non numbered stuff seem wildly off.

[Mister2Bits]

The base card market can only go so far.

For #700, I believe there is an estimate ~250k of each card printed and I dont believe that number includes complete base sets. There are tons of this card.

Between PSA/BGS/SGC/CGC/TAG there are ~20,500 copies of #700 with 16,800 copies at PSA alone (9,117 PSA 10's)

57.8% are graded 9.5/10 (nearly 12,000)
42.2% are 9 and below

I just dont see this card going much higher simply due to supply and demand.

Here are the pops for the Black for comparison.

31 PSA, 7 BGS, 2 SGC, 0 CGC, 0 TAG

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Mister2Bits

The base card market can only go so far.

For #700, I believe there is an estimate ~250k of each card printed and I dont believe that number includes complete base sets. There are tons of this card.

Between PSA/BGS/SGC/CGC/TAG there are ~20,500 copies of #700 with 16,800 copies at PSA alone (9,117 PSA 10's)

57.8% are graded 9.5/10 (nearly 12,000)
42.2% are 9 and below

I just dont see this card going much higher simply due to supply and demand.

Here are the pops for the Black for comparison.

31 PSA, 7 BGS, 2 SGC, 0 CGC, 0 TAG

Lets say you are correct in your print run estimate. What do you think is the "correct price" for a #700
Raw-
PSA9-
PSA1-

Would be interested in others to chime in!

How many current Ohtani collectors are out there that would want a single #700 RC card (ie. the demand side of the equation)?

Edit: Here is my take based on current supply, demand, and Ohtani performance
Raw-$25
PSA9-$30
PSA10-$100

[Twalk1975]

Originally Posted by Mister2Bits

The base card market can only go so far.

For #700, I believe there is an estimate ~250k of each card printed and I dont believe that number includes complete base sets. There are tons of this card.

Between PSA/BGS/SGC/CGC/TAG there are ~20,500 copies of #700 with 16,800 copies at PSA alone (9,117 PSA 10's)

57.8% are graded 9.5/10 (nearly 12,000)
42.2% are 9 and below

I just dont see this card going much higher simply due to supply and demand.

Here are the pops for the Black for comparison.

31 PSA, 7 BGS, 2 SGC, 0 CGC, 0 TAG

This is helpful to what I was trying to get at earlier. There are probably 250-300k raw 700's out there, many still in unopened wax. Roughly 10% of the print run, give or take, has been graded. I'm not sure grading is as prevalent as suggested, there are at the least probably tens of thousands of raw 700's floating around that probably haven't even been considered for grading.

[ThoseBackPages]

Grading is best when dealing with cards on the internet


and yes, plenty of 700's to go around in all forms

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Twalk1975

This is helpful to what I was trying to get at earlier. There are probably 250-300k raw 700's out there, many still in unopened wax. Roughly 10% of the print run, give or take, has been graded. I'm not sure grading is as prevalent as suggested, there are at the least probably tens of thousands of raw 700's floating around that probably haven't even been considered for grading.

Anytime someone says they assume something is wrong if it isn't graded (I get this alot in the vintage world as well), they are severely overestimating the prevalence of grading. There are TONS of great cards that have never been considered for grading for myriad reasons besides something is wrong with them. But I don't mind, more great raw cards for the rest of us.

[Qubits]

The #700 is a great example for why I'd always buy a PSA 9 over a raw. PSA 9s go for about $30, raw also seem to go for about $20-30. I'd much rather just get a 9 knowing there aren't any major issues with it than pay close to the same cost for a raw card. Yeah, I miss out on the shot that it might gem but I'm not much of a gambler.

[Mister2Bits]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Lets say you are correct in your print run estimate. What do you think is the "correct price" for a #700
Raw-
PSA9-
PSA10-

Would be interested in others to chime in!

How many current Ohtani collectors are out there that would want a single #700 RC card (ie. the demand side of the equation)?

I would say that $100 is accurate but only today.

He's most likely going to join Frank Robinson to become the 2nd player to win an MVP for both the AL & MVP. However, during that time, the pop report for #700 is going to keep growing and most likely at a faster rate given a PSA 10 currently sells for 3x the rate of base and the gem rate odds are in your favor (~58% chance of Gem Mint). The math works, especially if you're sitting on a bunch of raw copies.

His future base price is a balance between how many additional #700 get graded in the next few years vs how many new additional "investors/collectors" he can bring in given #700 is most likely THE entry level card.

#700 is not like other RC goats....89 UD Griffey (107k, PSA 10 pop rate of 3.9%), Jeter SP (PSA 10 pop rate of 0.09%) or Jordan (24.5k, PSA 10 pop rate of 1.3%).

#700 has eclipsed Trout levels already (14k US175 Trout RC's on PSA pop report with a 46% PSA 10 rate) and has a better gem rate at 58%

The #700 graded population will probably double in another 2 years but will the demand keep up given he has so many other options?

I think at $100 you buying close to the top. Just my .02.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Mister2Bits

I would say that $100 is accurate but only today.

He's most likely going to join Frank Robinson to become the 2nd player to win an MVP for both the AL & MVP. However, during that time, the pop report for #700 is going to keep growing and most likely at a faster rate given a PSA 10 currently sells for 3x the rate of base and the gem rate odds are in your favor (~58% chance of Gem Mint). The math works, especially if you're sitting on a bunch of raw copies.

His future base price is a balance between how many additional #700 get graded in the next few years vs how many new additional "investors/collectors" he can bring in given #700 is most likely THE entry level card.

#700 is not like other RC goats....89 UD Griffey (107k, PSA 10 pop rate of 3.9%), Jeter SP (PSA 10 pop rate of 0.09%) or Jordan (PSA 10 pop rate of 1.3%).

#700 has eclipsed Trout levels already (14k US175 Trout RC's on PSA pop report with a 46% PSA 10 rate) and has a better gem rate at 58%

The #700 graded population will probably double in another 2 years but will the demand keep up given he has so many other options?

I think at $100 you buying close to the top. Just my .02.

What is your 2 cents on raw and PSA9?

[Mister2Bits]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

What is your 2 cents on raw and PSA9?

Depends on the value you put on the PSA case and the cost baked into the card.

A PSA 9 at $35 - You know the card is legit, but there are nearly 12,000 copies with a better grade. However, it's protected and authentic and you're essentially getting the card itself at a discount since it has ~$22 in grading costs baked in.

A raw copy has the chance at being a 10, but you aren't getting it fresh out of a pack. Someone else pulled the card, sleeved the card, stored the card and shipped the card. Additionally, it's likely someone discarding copies that didn't meet their own grading criteria. All of these are risks in the process. Given the additional risks, the odds of getting a 10 are also greatly decreased vs ripping packs/complete set.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by Mister2Bits

I would say that $100 is accurate but only today.

He's most likely going to join Frank Robinson to become the 2nd player to win an MVP for both the AL & MVP. However, during that time, the pop report for #700 is going to keep growing and most likely at a faster rate given a PSA 10 currently sells for 3x the rate of base and the gem rate odds are in your favor (~58% chance of Gem Mint). The math works, especially if you're sitting on a bunch of raw copies.

His future base price is a balance between how many additional #700 get graded in the next few years vs how many new additional "investors/collectors" he can bring in given #700 is most likely THE entry level card.

#700 is not like other RC goats....89 UD Griffey (107k, PSA 10 pop rate of 3.9%), Jeter SP (PSA 10 pop rate of 0.09%) or Jordan (24.5k, PSA 10 pop rate of 1.3%).

#700 has eclipsed Trout levels already (14k US175 Trout RC's on PSA pop report with a 46% PSA 10 rate) and has a better gem rate at 58%

The #700 graded population will probably double in another 2 years but will the demand keep up given he has so many other options?

I think at $100 you buying close to the top. Just my .02.

At the time that I was working on it, the rookie set registry for Sho was 63 cards....that's a lot of options, so there is a sincere dilution with so many choices.

[Trueblue]

The endless question asking about pricing is like asking what the price of AMZN or MSFT will be in 2 years. Who freaking knows. And frankly, you should be buying based on fundamentals rather than one earnings call or brief market downturn. If those companies outperform the market, they will comparatively hold or gain value at a higher rate.

This is why we are telling you to focus on the legacy. Dude is an Asian baseball player that accomplished the impossible by becoming a two-way player at the highest level in a VERY specialized baseball era. He is arguably the most talented ball player to walk the Earth. This doesn't change because he has a 5 game slump or wins one extra MVP. If you can't understand this, you should probably take a break from collecting and get back to the basics of enjoying baseball, the sport.

We will make this really easy / black and white. You are better off selling every card you own under $500 and buying on-card Rookie autos and #d TC/Bowman. In 10 years, I guarantee your high end is going to be crushing what you sold to acquire it.

Stop substantiating low-end value and just do this if you're manically concerned about prices.

[ThoseBackPages]

Mayor, what are the Purple 700s going for these days? (Not the chrome)

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

Mayor, what are the Purple 700s going for these days? (Not the chrome)

Not enough sample size. It was still Toys-R-Us during latter phase of bankruptcy and most copies are beat up. I think a PSA 10 sold for $1K in 2022, but it's probably on-par with pricing between vintage and blue/pink (#700 vintage PSA 10 is pop zero, but you get my point). That would place a 10 at around $2.5-3K value and decent raw for about half.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Not enough sample size. It was still Toys-R-Us during latter phase of bankruptcy and most copies are beat up. I think a PSA 10 sold for $1K in 2022, but it's probably on-par with pricing between vintage and blue/pink (#700 vintage PSA 10 is pop zero, but you get my point). That would place a 10 at around $2.5-3K value and decent raw for about half.

Thank You Sir! i am looking for an 8 or lower

[Mister2Bits]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

You are better off selling every card you own under $500 and buying on-card Rookie autos and #d TC/Bowman.

Don't you dare leave off flagship parallels

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by Mister2Bits

Don't you dare leave off flagship parallels

I could almost hear you, hey, hey, HEY!

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by Mister2Bits

Don't you dare leave off flagship parallels

Yes, flagship parallels too. Even those crappy unnumbered ones.