✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by tconte

First off, I agree with TBP. Collect what makes you happy and what you like.

I missed the boat with many of the high end Ohtani "RC" cards from 2018.

There is nothing wrong with the lower end base cards. I have some I opened
from the packs I bought. I learned early on that those cards are not for me.
Similar to vintage, I prefer to buy the odd ball or harder releases for players.
Base cards are not it.

I sold many of my base Acuna and Soto cards when they were hot. Can't believe the Soto base chrome was a $300 at one time. Maybe more.
I forget.

Now, I see cards like the Ohtani Bowman chrome batting pose going for $600 and
I can't believe it. If I had a stock of those, I would be selling all but one.
This would give me the chance to buy some of the tougher issues.

Thanks for the collecting advice! I am definitely a quantity over quality guy when it comes to collecting! The most I have spent on an Ohtani card is $350 (Raw Topps chrome xfractor in 2021). I mainly buy raw and virtually never sell. Maybe one day I when I decide to sell my cards I will be more comfortable buying high end.

My reason for posting was not advice on the Ohtani cards I collect, but more what people expect in the short term (6-12 months) and long term (5+ years). It seems the only other modern player that has a trajectory like Ohtani is Trout, but I did not collect back then. So I was just wondering if anyone saw any parallels of what the future holds.

[Trueblue]

You hardly see any trout #d parallels anymore from the main sets and when they appear, people go nuts on them. Expect more or less the same in five years with some adjustment for the increased number of sets in 2018. Possible offsets are higher demand for Ohtani versus Trout. If Sho passes 40 WAR by 30, the HOF collectors are going to come marching in and raise prices, as he's pretty much a lock at that point. Trout had something similar when his trajectory was very clear.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

You hardly see any trout #d parallels anymore from the main sets and when they appear, people go nuts on them. Expect more or less the same in five years with some adjustment for the increased number of sets in 2018. Possible offsets are higher demand for Ohtani versus Trout. If Sho passes 40 WAR by 30, the HOF collectors are going to come marching in and raise prices, as he's pretty much a lock at that point. Trout had something similar when his trajectory was very clear.

Thanks for the insight! At this point it looks like Ohtani is the most popular player in the game and probably has more potential demand than Trout due to his international appeal. So it is possible that despite the print runs on Ohtani cards and the fact he is in numerous products compared to 2011 Trout that demand will be far greater in the future.

Looks like Ohtani is about to turn 29 soon and has about 30 bWAR...so as long as he stays healthy and performs to current standards 40 bWAR at age 30 is very doable.

Like I said before I am not selling and going to ride the wave! It is very fun being an Ohtani fan and card collector. It is so easy to root for a guy that is the best 2 way player ever, the face of MLB, and what seems like a great human being. Lets go Ohtani!

[ThoseBackPages]

i would buy, not sell Ohtani right now

[seanrs1]

True blue...you mentioned with Trout that when his cards took off it was of numbered/SP cards of the Topps brands collectors flock to (Flagship, Topps chrome, Heritage etc). I was wondering if you noticed anything different with Ohtani's market. My thinking is twofold. Ohtani is going to attract sports collectors that don't normally collect baseball cards and is also going to have a big Japanese following. I am wondering if the non baseball collectors will prop up Panini brands (as MLB license won't matter much to them)? Are there any brands of Topps cards that Japanese collectors seem to prefer over the traditional brands?

[Ra3]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Thanks for the insight! At this point it looks like Ohtani is the most popular player in the game and probably has more potential demand than Trout due to his international appeal. So it is possible that despite the print runs on Ohtani cards and the fact he is in numerous products compared to 2011 Trout that demand will be far greater in the future.

Looks like Ohtani is about to turn 29 soon and has about 30 bWAR...so as long as he stays healthy and performs to current standards 40 bWAR at age 30 is very doable.

Like I said before I am not selling and going to ride the wave! It is very fun being an Ohtani fan and card collector. It is so easy to root for a guy that is the best 2 way player ever, the face of MLB, and what seems like a great human being. Lets go Ohtani!

What sort of WAR do you think Ohtani needs for that HOF status? I kinda feel like he shouldn’t be judged by normal metrics (not that I have any good idea of how to quantitatively judge someone who is doing unprecedented things like he is)…i almost feel like if he plays at this level (10-ish WAR) for another season or two, it’s already more than enough to cement a HOF status. Even if he switches to a hitter-only status towards the back end of his career.

[Qubits]

Originally Posted by Ra3

What sort of WAR do you think Ohtani needs for that HOF status? I kinda feel like he shouldn’t be judged by normal metrics (not that I have any good idea of how to quantitatively judge someone who is doing unprecedented things like he is)…i almost feel like if he plays at this level (10-ish WAR) for another season or two, it’s already more than enough to cement a HOF status. Even if he switches to a hitter-only status towards the back end of his career.

This may or not be a "hot take" but if Ohtani wins MVP this year I honestly don't think it matters what he does the rest of his career so long as he plays for the 10 years minimum. I think he's getting in the HOF just on the back of 2021-2023.

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by Qubits

This may or not be a "hot take" but if Ohtani wins MVP this year I honestly don't think it matters what he does the rest of his career so long as he plays for the 10 years minimum. I think he's getting in the HOF just on the back of 2021-2023.

How many 2x MVPs are NOT in the HOF?

Dale Murphy comes to mind. Anyone else?

[JRX]

Originally Posted by Qubits

This may or not be a "hot take" but if Ohtani wins MVP this year I honestly don't think it matters what he does the rest of his career so long as he plays for the 10 years minimum. I think he's getting in the HOF just on the back of 2021-2023.

I think they would make a special consideration if he doesn't get to 10 years. He's going in the hof imo.

[imbluestreak23]

Sho is a shoe in for HOF. No doubter.

[TBTC Baseball]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

How many 2x MVPs are NOT in the HOF?

Dale Murphy comes to mind. Anyone else?

Found it

• Dale Murphy
• Roger Maris

PED Related

• Juan Gonzalez
• Alex Rodriguez
• Barry Bonds

Not yet eligible

• Albert Pujols
• Miguel Cabrera
• Mike Trout
• Bryce Harper

[Bcr]

A shame we aren't witnessing the Ohtani threepeat. Judge just had to have one of the best years of all time.

[ThoseBackPages]

63 this year would be incredible

[Rage]

Originally Posted by Bcr

A shame we aren't witnessing the Ohtani threepeat YET. Judge just had to have one of the best years of all time.

2023-2025

[zworykin]

Originally Posted by Bcr

A shame we aren't witnessing the Ohtani threepeat. Judge just had to have one of the best years of all time.

Except it was nothing close to Ohtani's. The shame is that the voters are idiots.

[atk825]

Originally Posted by Rage

2023-2025

Gonna join Frank Robinson

[atk825]

Originally Posted by zworykin

Except it was nothing close to Ohtani's. The shame is that the voters are idiots.

Judge had an 11.5 WAR season. He had a better season.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/war?season=2022 When it's a 2 win margin, that's fairly significant.

[Cards and 401K]

Man S.O .is in the zone and fun to watch! I picked up quite a few RC's in 2019 after TJ surgery. He has soooo many 2018 RC's the international market may be able to keep his prices elevated. I keep thinking there is no way he can keep playing P/DH like this, enjoy it now, the MLB needed a great unicorn and here we are. If he does play 10+ yrs. at HOF WAR level then collecting him is never to late. Here Here to the famed Class of 2018!!

[redauto5]

Originally Posted by atk825

Judge had an 11.5 WAR season. He had a better season.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/war?season=2022 When it's a 2 win margin, that's fairly significant.

I'm a Shohei fan boy and continually amazed by his dominant 2 way play, so to me any season he exhibits such dominance deserves an MVP.

That said, and juiced balls aside, Judge's season was the type of season I can't argue with the voters all that vehemently against. It was special. Just not Shohei special.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[jdjdjd]

Sending US285 black off to PSA. Wish me luck Pulled from hobby case in 2018.

[hammertime]

Originally Posted by redauto5

I'm a Shohei fan boy and continually amazed by his dominant 2 way play, so to me any season he exhibits such dominance deserves an MVP.

That said, and juiced balls aside, Judge's season was the type of season I can't argue with the voters all that vehemently against. It was special. Just not Shohei special.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

FWIW I agree 100%. He didn't just mash a ton of HRs, he was *this close* to winning the TC.

Anyway, excited to see Sho on the bump tonight!

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by jdjdjd

Sending US285 black off to PSA. Wish me luck Pulled from hobby case in 2018.

any assigned grade is a WIN!

[Qubits]

Originally Posted by jdjdjd

Sending US285 black off to PSA. Wish me luck Pulled from hobby case in 2018.

Good luck! Regardless of the grade, that is a GREAT card.

[jdjdjd]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

any assigned grade is a WIN!

Originally Posted by Qubits

Good luck! Regardless of the grade, that is a GREAT card.

Thanks guys!

[Rage]

Sending good luck vibes brother!!
My only Flagship Black Ohtani is the US285, a great 8