How far will Mike Trout's prices fall in 2024?

[atk825]

Originally Posted by tjforce

That part will... but I think you're missing the bigger picture here and I'll do my best to explain what I think Mike Trout, as of this moment, is and what he isn't.

What he is:
-He's a Hall of Famer. He could never play another game and he gets in.
-He was the best player of a decade, or at least top 2. Maybe not the best decade in baseball history, but he was the still the guy.
-He's one of the most talented players ever.

What he isn't, or at least isn't yet:
-A guy who transcended the game into pop culture. He never reached Griffey/Jeter levels of exposure to draw in fans
-A champion. Ultimately, fans want to celebrate winners.
-An 'Inner Circle' HOF guy. In football there's and idea of the Hall of Fame's 'Upper Room'. It's for the best of the best, guys that have done it all and have unquestioned resumes. Montana, Rice, Jim Brown, soon to be Brady, etc. At the moment, Trout falls short of this list. It would include guys like Mays, Ruth, Mantle, and probably Pujols if I had to pick a guy from recent years. With as many holes in his resume as he has, Trout just doesn't belong there, yet.

That being said, you never know what could happen if he strings some healthy seasons together and leaves the Angels. Because of the top list, if he could ever manage to check a few boxes off the bottom, he could still wind up another tier higher.

Barry Sanders is an inner circle HOFer, retired at 30 and played for one of the most miserable franchises in sports. He won 1 playoff game, which is as many playoff games as he had with negative rushing yards. Ernie Banks is highly collectible, never played a playoff game and isn't within 20 WAR of Trout. Trout will age just fine and will forever be a legend if he never plays a game again. He also has 8 years left on his contract, so he's almost certainly going to play plenty.

[nowiamsad]

Once Trouts start ending up in hands of collectors instead of speculators, the prices will level out and begin to rise again, regardless of what he does from here out. He was the face of the hobby for too long.

[RW3FAN]

Originally Posted by mfw13

In that neither of them have reached a World Series.

Happens to the best of them.......


Nap Lajoie (1896–1916)
George Sisler (1915–1930)
Harry Heilmann (1914–1932)
Bobby Wallace (1894–1918)
Ted Lyons (1923–1946)
Elmer Flick (1898–1910)
Luke Appling (1930–1950)
Ralph Kiner (1946–1955)
Ernie Banks (1953–1971)
Addie Joss (1902–1910)
George Kell (1943–1957)
Rick Ferrell (1929–1947)
Billy Williams (1959–1976)
Fergie Jenkins (1965–1983)
Gaylord Perry (1962–1983) Perry pitched briefly for the NL Champion 1962 Giants, but was not on the World Series roster.
Rod Carew (1967–1985)
Jim Bunning (1955–1971)
Phil Niekro (1964–1987)
Ryne Sandberg (1981–1997)
Andre Dawson (1976–1996)
Ron Santo (1960–1974)
Frank Thomas (1990–2008) Thomas was a member of the 2005 WS Champion White Sox, but missed the majority of the season due to injury and was not on the postseason roster.
Ken Griffey Jr (1989–2010)
Lee Smith (1980–1997)
Edgar Martinez (1987–2004)
Roy Halladay (1998–2013)
Minnie Minoso (1949–1980)


Potential Future Hall of Famers who could be added to the list include:

Rafael Palmeiro (1986–2005)
Sammy Sosa (1989–2007)
Billy Wagner (1995–2010)
Joe Mauer (2004–2018)
Ichiro Suzuki (2001–2019)

[Stifle]

Originally Posted by atk825

Barry Sanders is an inner circle HOFer, retired at 30 and played for one of the most miserable franchises in sports. He won 1 playoff game, which is as many playoff games as he had with negative rushing yards. Ernie Banks is highly collectible, never played a playoff game and isn't within 20 WAR of Trout. Trout will age just fine and will forever be a legend if he never plays a game again. He also has 8 years left on his contract, so he's almost certainly going to play plenty.

Not even close. Under Barry, Detroit had won 2 division titles 2 times more than the one in 1983 in a 65 year span, 1958-2022. Barry’s playoff victory was the only post season win in that 65 year span when the Lions were regarded as the worst professional franchise in North America. Not just NFL, but in all professional League sports teams. The Angels were never close to being at those depths for that length of time.

[atk825]

Originally Posted by Stifle

Not even close. Under Barry, Detroit had won 2 division titles 2 times more than the one in 1983 in a 65 year span, 1958-2022. Barry’s playoff victory was the only post season win in that 65 year span when the Lions were regarded as the worst professional franchise in North America. Not just NFL, but in all professional League sports teams. The Angels were never close to being at those depths for that length of time.

Of all the things people talk about Barry (outside of diehard Lions fans), I would venture the one time his team won a divisional round playoff game, something 4 teams do every year, is not something people wax poetic about. The point is that the marginal playoff success Barry did have isn't what makes him legendary.

[Stifle]

Originally Posted by atk825

Of all the things people talk about Barry (outside of diehard Lions fans), I would venture the one time his team won a divisional round playoff game, something 4 teams do every year, is not something people wax poetic about. The point is that the marginal playoff success Barry did have isn't what makes him legendary.

Did you bypass being the WORST professional sports franchise in North America during Barry’s era ? How many professional franchises have advanced but just 1 time in 65 seasons and Sanders had that Iconic twist and spin run around a Dallas defender. Dallas went on to win 3 of the next 4 Super Bowls.

What is Mike Trout’s most Iconic performance or play in his career. A All Star “Exhibition” Home Run ?

[SaveMeTheGum]

Originally Posted by nowiamsad

Once Trouts start ending up in hands of collectors instead of speculators, the prices will level out and begin to rise again, regardless of what he does from here out. He was the face of the hobby for too long.

He was the face of speculation within the hobby. He was never the face of baseball. People will still collect him, but nowhere near the popularity of a Griffey Jr. The speculators far outnumber the collectors, which means the prices have a lot farther to drop.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by nowiamsad

Once Trouts start ending up in hands of collectors instead of speculators, the prices will level out and begin to rise again, regardless of what he does from here out. He was the face of the hobby for too long.

I think he needs to claw his way to 500 HRs before he's longstanding hobby Mount Rushmore type. I'll keep picking up his cards when I spot them at nice discounts or can gem out. There's otherwise more dynamic players currently like Mookie Betts who has cards much cheaper.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by atk825

Barry Sanders is an inner circle HOFer, retired at 30 and played for one of the most miserable franchises in sports. He won 1 playoff game, which is as many playoff games as he had with negative rushing yards. Ernie Banks is highly collectible, never played a playoff game and isn't within 20 WAR of Trout. Trout will age just fine and will forever be a legend if he never plays a game again. He also has 8 years left on his contract, so he's almost certainly going to play plenty.

Originally Posted by Stifle

Not even close. Under Barry, Detroit had won 2 division titles 2 times more than the one in 1983 in a 65 year span, 1958-2022. Barry’s playoff victory was the only post season win in that 65 year span when the Lions were regarded as the worst professional franchise in North America. Not just NFL, but in all professional League sports teams. The Angels were never close to being at those depths for that length of time.

Barry also finished 3rd on the all time rushing list, 2nd in yards per game, and 6th in TDs. He had a 2,000 yard season, which is a huge milestone. And he also left the game by his own will while he was on top.

I agree, if Trout can do similar and finish his career with 715 Home Runs, .328 average (I'm only considering modern players, placing him ahead of Boggs), and has a 60 Home Run season in him, then he's the baseball equivalent of Barry Sanders. Heck, any one of those things would probably do it.

Or if you want to put it in baseball terms, if he has about 30 more WAR in him (He has 15.2 over the past 5 years). So I'm not saying he will or won't, but that it's what he'll need to do if you want Barry Sanders to be a good comp.

Otherwise your NFL comp is Terrell Davis or Gale Sayers.... guys who at the top of their games were among the all time best, but couldn't stay healthy enough to wind up with next to the all time greats.

[49ersSF]

Originally Posted by atk825

Barry Sanders is an inner circle HOFer, retired at 30 and played for one of the most miserable franchises in sports. He won 1 playoff game, which is as many playoff games as he had with negative rushing yards. Ernie Banks is highly collectible, never played a playoff game and isn't within 20 WAR of Trout. Trout will age just fine and will forever be a legend if he never plays a game again. He also has 8 years left on his contract, so he's almost certainly going to play plenty.

Retiring at 30 as a running back cannot be comparable to a baseball career. Most NFL running backs historically do not last more than 10 years. Barry played 10 years. He was #2 in career rushing yards when he retired. Barry Sanders was a highlight real often featured on sports center during its peak and was known by just about everyone in the country. His impact on the game helped move the NFL into become easily the most beloved sport in this country while baseball slipped far far behind to the #3 sport. His impact also helped the video game sports generation become as big as it is today.

The only thing that you can compare is that they both do not have a ring. Barry helped lead his team to the playoffs 5 times in his 10-year career. Trout helped lead his team to 1 playoff visit in 13 years.

[dodgerfanjohn]

Anyone heavily invested in Trout high end should be sobbing at the moment. He remains great, and a 1st ballot HOF, but his shine has begun to fade.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

Anyone heavily invested cards should be sobbing at the moment.

fixed it, and agree

[SaveMeTheGum]

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

Anyone heavily invested in Trout high end should be sobbing at the moment. He remains great, and a 1st ballot HOF, but his shine has begun to fade.

For people paying attention, it started fading 3-4 years ago.

[dodgerfanjohn]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

fixed it, and agree

LOL touche!

[dodgerfanjohn]

Originally Posted by SaveMeTheGum

For people paying attention, it started fading 3-4 years ago.

LOL touche as well.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

fixed it, and agree

Nope... not the folks that used the pandemic pump to turn $hit into cards they really love.

And to be honest, anybody who has a Trout collection they really enjoy (that they hopefully didn't buy at peak) should feel good as well.

Now if you have a Trout collection that cost big money and was looked at purely as an investment, then that's unfortunate. It's the risk when investing top level money into a guy with an incomplete resume, no matter what he was on pace to do.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Nope... not the folks that used the pandemic pump to turn $hit into cards they really love.

And to be honest, anybody who has a Trout collection they really enjoy (that they hopefully didn't buy at peak) should feel good as well.

Now if you have a Trout collection that cost big money and was looked at purely as an investment, then that's unfortunate. It's the risk when investing top level money into a guy with an incomplete resume, no matter what he was on pace to do.

i would not invest in any cards, ESPECIALLY modern.

collect them, do not invest in them

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

i would not invest in any cards, ESPECIALLY modern.

collect them, do not invest in them

I did both. It worked out.

That being said, the stuff that I hold onto is stuff that I'll enjoy for a very long time. If there comes a day where I decide to cash it in, then that's a bonus.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I did both. It worked out.

That being said, the stuff that I hold onto is stuff that I'll enjoy for a very long time. If there comes a day where I decide to cash it in, then that's a bonus.

[redauto5]

Know why Mike Trout will remain relevant 5, 10, 20 years from now in the hobby? Because threads like this are so dang popular and pop up frequently. Many of the Trout Haters here will become more sophisticated over the years and will begin appreciating the Millville Meteor's legacy and begin collecting him, as those of us that have already reached said level of sophistication do.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by RW3FAN

Happens to the best of them.......


Nap Lajoie (1896–1916)
George Sisler (1915–1930)
Harry Heilmann (1914–1932)
Bobby Wallace (1894–1918)
Ted Lyons (1923–1946)
Elmer Flick (1898–1910)
Luke Appling (1930–1950)
Ralph Kiner (1946–1955)
Ernie Banks (1953–1971)
Addie Joss (1902–1910)
George Kell (1943–1957)
Rick Ferrell (1929–1947)
Billy Williams (1959–1976)
Fergie Jenkins (1965–1983)
Gaylord Perry (1962–1983) Perry pitched briefly for the NL Champion 1962 Giants, but was not on the World Series roster.
Rod Carew (1967–1985)
Jim Bunning (1955–1971)
Phil Niekro (1964–1987)
Ryne Sandberg (1981–1997)
Andre Dawson (1976–1996)
Ron Santo (1960–1974)
Frank Thomas (1990–2008) Thomas was a member of the 2005 WS Champion White Sox, but missed the majority of the season due to injury and was not on the postseason roster.
Ken Griffey Jr (1989–2010)
Lee Smith (1980–1997)
Edgar Martinez (1987–2004)
Roy Halladay (1998–2013)
Minnie Minoso (1949–1980)


Potential Future Hall of Famers who could be added to the list include:

Rafael Palmeiro (1986–2005)
Sammy Sosa (1989–2007)
Billy Wagner (1995–2010)
Joe Mauer (2004–2018)
Ichiro Suzuki (2001–2019)

Yep.....you could put together a pretty strong lineup just from the post-WWII guys....

1B - Carew
2B - Sandberg
3B - E.Martinez
SS - Banks
OF - Dawson
OF - Griffey Jr.
OF - Ichiro
DH - Kiner
SP - Jenkins, Perry, Bunning, Niekro, Halladay
RP - Lee Smith & Wagner

[SaveMeTheGum]

Originally Posted by redauto5

Know why Mike Trout will remain relevant 5, 10, 20 years from now in the hobby? Because threads like this are so dang popular and pop up frequently. Many of the Trout Haters here will become more sophisticated over the years and will begin appreciating the Millville Meteor's legacy and begin collecting him, as those of us that have already reached said level of sophistication do.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

Unlikely. He's going to retire as a "what if" guy. He's plays for a team with a small following. No championships. Maybe he bounces around and gets a ring later in his career, but it won't be because of him.

In 20 years, when you look at the list of baseball's all time greats, he will be the 3rd best player from the 2018-2021 Angels.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by SaveMeTheGum

Unlikely. He's going to retire as a "what if" guy. He's plays for a team with a small following. No championships. Maybe he bounces around and gets a ring later in his career, but it won't be because of him.

In 20 years, when you look at the list of baseball's all time greats, he will be the 3rd best player from the 2018-2021 Angels.

disagree

[PokeyAndG]

Originally Posted by redauto5

Know why Mike Trout will remain relevant 5, 10, 20 years from now in the hobby? Because threads like this are so dang popular and pop up frequently. Many of the Trout Haters here will become more sophisticated over the years and will begin appreciating the Millville Meteor's legacy and begin collecting him, as those of us that have already reached said level of sophistication do.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

but he don't got charisma like Griffey Jr. and everyone will remember how he struck out against Ohtani

[Stifle]

Originally Posted by redauto5

Know why Mike Trout will remain relevant 5, 10, 20 years from now in the hobby? Because threads like this are so dang popular and pop up frequently. Many of the Trout Haters here will become more sophisticated over the years and will begin appreciating the Millville Meteor's legacy and begin collecting him, as those of us that have already reached said level of sophistication do.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

I can remember Derek Jeter having multiple threads where members were complaining. I wasn’t a member but followed Blowout for a couple years before joining. After Jeter retires his threads are sparse. Pujols and Cabrera threads are sparse. Out of sight out of mind.

Last year a month after being injured, Trout wasn’t even close to being the topic of discussion. It will occur this season but give it time.