calculusdork's 2021 Cy Young Predictor - Page 5

calculusdork · 07-20-2021, 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LVDan

The fact that both Gausman and disco made the list this week is just an example of how good their moves have been. Incredible.

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The fact that they brought Alex Wood back to life is enough proof for me.

hche · 07-20-2021, 11:48 AM

When you put Gausman and Woodruff side by side, their stats are almost identical.

Gausman 19 19 14 1.84 9 3 0 0 117.2 67 24 10 33 138 10.6 4.9 0.85

Woodruff 19 19 14 2.04 7 4 0 0 119.0 70 27 9 29 137 10.4 4.7 0.83

hche · 07-20-2021, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calculusdork

The fact that they brought Alex Wood back to life is enough proof for me.

Who is the Giants' trainer???? LOL. Wood has always been a good pitcher but the injuries, yikes!

calculusdork · 07-20-2021, 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hche

When you put Gausman and Woodruff side by side, their stats are almost identical.

Gausman 19 19 14 1.84 9 3 0 0 117.2 67 24 10 33 138 10.6 4.9 0.85

Woodruff 19 19 14 2.04 7 4 0 0 119.0 70 27 9 29 137 10.4 4.7 0.83

Yep, they are converging. The only difference really is W/L.

calculusdork · 07-21-2021, 09:08 PM

Picked these up right on time, lol

Also took the picture with a potato so yous guys could seem

LVDan · 07-21-2021, 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calculusdork

Picked these up right on time, lol

Also took the picture with a potato so yous guys could seem

I held those things for like 4 years... good riddance!

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calculusdork · 07-21-2021, 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LVDan

I held those things for like 4 years... good riddance!

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The one I really wish I could have back is my Rodon Heritage Gold Ref PSA 10.

jdandns · 07-24-2021, 11:16 PM

Gausman rocked for 6 earned in 4.1 tonight at home, and (very, very likely) picks up the loss.
Buehler went 7.1 with 1 earned on Thursday, but no decision.
Does Walker pass Kevin for 2nd?

calculusdork · 07-26-2021, 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdandns

Gausman rocked for 6 earned in 4.1 tonight at home, and (very, very likely) picks up the loss.
Buehler went 7.1 with 1 earned on Thursday, but no decision.
Does Walker pass Kevin for 2nd?

Ask and you shall receive ... results coming shortly

calculusdork · 07-26-2021, 09:32 AM

2021 NL CY Prediction (as of 7/26/21)
1. Jacob deGrom 116.01 (0)
2. Walker Buehler 92.61 (+1)
3. Zack Wheeler 87.71 (+2)
4. Kevin Gausman 87.11 (-2)
5. Brandon Woodruff 86.56 (-1)
6. Freddy Peralta 83.38 (+1)
7. Corbin Burnes 83.12 (+1)
8. Anthony DeSclafani 81.31 (-2)

Honorable Mentions: Max Scherzer, Trevor Rogers

Things starting to shake up in the NL. I've adjusted the Predictor for deGrom's injury, currently projecting him to finish the season with 23 starts (which actually feels optimistic). For those wondering, the "crossover point" for deGrom and the rest of the pack is somewhere around 23 GS, 1.50 ERA and 0.80 WHIP.

This will be a fun race, and a tough test for the Predictor. So much of what's in the noise here is W/L. We'll get a better idea just how much it matters anymore.

Also, my advice: Now's a good time to stock up on Walker Buehler.

2021 AL CY Prediction (as of 7/26/21)
1. Lance Lynn 91.36 (+2)
2. Gerrit Cole 89.28 (-1)
3. Carlos Rodon 87.01 (-1)

Honorable Mentions: Chris Bassitt, Robbie Ray

Lance Lynn!!! It's basically a 3-man race ... there is clear separation between this trio and the rest of the pack.

KhalDrogo · 07-26-2021, 10:43 AM

We’ll see how Buehler holds up down the stretch. This will be by far the most innings he’s thrown in his career.

Hollywood42 · 07-26-2021, 10:45 AM

RIP Gibby Cy Young dreams

calculusdork · 07-26-2021, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

We’ll see how Buehler holds up down the stretch. This will be by far the most innings he’s thrown in his career.

Ah ... yeah, there is that I guess.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hollywood42

RIP Gibby Cy Young dreams

Yeah, no hope left for him unfortunately.

rwperu34 · 07-26-2021, 11:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calculusdork

2021 NL CY Prediction (as of 7/26/21)
1. Jacob deGrom 116.01 (0)
2. Walker Buehler 92.61 (+1)

Also, my advice: Now's a good time to stock up on Walker Buehler.

I just sold my 2018 Walker Buehler Update PSA 10 Pink Refractor. Got a solid price for it. Fortunately...or unfortunately, depending on how things shake out...I've got three more ready to go to PSA if they ever reopen low end service.

JWBlue · 07-26-2021, 11:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calculusdork

Also, my advice: Now's a good time to stock up on Walker Buehler.

Isn't DeGrom's lead insurmountable?

rman112 · 07-26-2021, 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JWBlue

Isn't DeGrom's lead insurmountable?

Not at all. He's thrown 92 innings, and there's not even a timetable for his return yet.

calculusdork · 07-27-2021, 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JWBlue

Isn't DeGrom's lead insurmountable?

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

Not at all. He's thrown 92 innings, and there's not even a timetable for his return yet.

Correct. Right now, deGrom is basically an elite relief pitcher. He needs to get to at least ~135 IP with current stats to win.

Guy 1: 11-4, 135 IP, 200 K, 1.08 ERA, 0.55 WHIP
Guy 2: 16-2, 205 IP, 220 K, 2.00 ERA, 0.90 WHIP

Guy 1 clearly wins this IMO, but if those rate stats tick up, it gets close.

alwayson22 · 07-27-2021, 10:51 AM

I love this annual thread, calculus! Great stuff, as always.

LVDan · 07-27-2021, 11:17 AM

I’d love to see all three Brewers finish top 5. Did that ever happen back in the Braves heyday?

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pspa123 · 07-27-2021, 11:30 AM

I read where DeGrom claimed his prior injuries this year were all batting related. True?

And, tremendous thread.

calculusdork · 07-27-2021, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LVDan

I’d love to see all three Brewers finish top 5. Did that ever happen back in the Braves heyday?

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It sure did! In 1998, in Glavine's second (and quite frankly completely undeserved) CY season.

1. Tom Glavine
2. Trevor Hoffman
3. Kevin Brown
4a. Greg Maddux
4b. John Smoltz

Glavine took the NL CY in '98 because he was the only 20-game winner.

jswest18 · 07-27-2021, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pspa123

I read where DeGrom claimed his prior injuries this year were all batting related. True?

And, tremendous thread.

Yes that's what he said about his previous injuries. This one was not batting related from my understanding.

calculusdork · 07-27-2021, 11:53 AM

Man, I'm getting old. I completely forgot that Smoltz transitioned *back* into a starting pitcher after being an elite reliever for 3.5 years. I've always been kinda down on him as a HOF'er (aside from the fairly incredible "only guy with 150 wins and 150 saves" thing), but ... man, he went from elite starter to elite reliever, and then had two more top-10 CY finishes as a 38-year-old and again as a 40-year-old. Was on track to do it again in his age-41 season, but injuries ended it.

What a beast.

jswest18 · 07-27-2021, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calculusdork

It sure did! In 1998, in Glavine's second (and quite frankly completely undeserved) CY season.

1. Tom Glavine
2. Trevor Hoffman
3. Kevin Brown
4a. Greg Maddux
4b. John Smoltz

Glavine took the NL CY in '98 because he was the only 20-game winner.

You think Maddux should have won it?

jswest18 · 07-27-2021, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calculusdork

Man, I'm getting old. I completely forgot that Smoltz transitioned *back* into a starting pitcher after being an elite reliever for 3.5 years. I've always been kinda down on him as a HOF'er (aside from the fairly incredible "only guy with 150 wins and 150 saves" thing), but ... man, he went from elite starter to elite reliever, and then had two more top-10 CY finishes as a 38-year-old and again as a 40-year-old. Was on track to do it again in his age-41 season, but injuries ended it.

What a beast.

I think maybe part of the reason Smoltz doesn't get thought of as highly is because he pitched with Maddux and Glavine. He was the consensus number 3 most of those years so I think we tend to think of him less perhaps. He was incredible though when you look at the body of his work. As you mentioned 150 wins (213 to be exact) 150 saves, 3000 Ks, 69 WAR, and one of the greatest post season pitchers of all time.

07-20-2021, 11:48 AM	#102
hche Member Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 6,298	When you put Gausman and Woodruff side by side, their stats are almost identical. Gausman 19 19 14 1.84 9 3 0 0 117.2 67 24 10 33 138 10.6 4.9 0.85 Woodruff 19 19 14 2.04 7 4 0 0 119.0 70 27 9 29 137 10.4 4.7 0.83 __________________ I would ban you but I have no sway or pull here.

07-24-2021, 11:16 PM	#108
jdandns Member Join Date: May 2015 Location: Southern California Posts: 23,235	Gausman rocked for 6 earned in 4.1 tonight at home, and (very, very likely) picks up the loss. Buehler went 7.1 with 1 earned on Thursday, but no decision. Does Walker pass Kevin for 2nd? __________________ 1. Play your cards right 2. Don't start fights 3. Think deep

07-26-2021, 10:43 AM	#111
KhalDrogo Member Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 41,245	We’ll see how Buehler holds up down the stretch. This will be by far the most innings he’s thrown in his career. __________________ I love PSA!

07-26-2021, 10:45 AM	#112
Hollywood42 Member Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Minnesota Posts: 39,482 Hollywood42	RIP Gibby Cy Young dreams __________________ Collecting the Twins All my PC wants/haves available at hollywood42cards.com

07-27-2021, 10:51 AM	#118
alwayson22 Member Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: Brentwood, TN Posts: 896 onsports11 alwayson22	I love this annual thread, calculus! Great stuff, as always. __________________ My Website ---> http://justinduchscherercollection.weebly.com/ I Collect Justin Duchscherer --- 220/231 Non-1/1's (95.24%) FINDER'S FEE FOR ANY DUCHSCHERER CARD REMAINING ON MY LIST ABOVE OR ANY 1/1 IG: cdcd_cards

07-21-2021, 09:08 PM	#105
calculusdork Member Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: Nowheresville Posts: 26,683 calculusdork calculusdork	Picked these up right on time, lol Also took the picture with a potato so yous guys could seem

07-26-2021, 09:32 AM	#110
calculusdork Member Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: Nowheresville Posts: 26,683 calculusdork calculusdork	2021 NL CY Prediction (as of 7/26/21) 1. Jacob deGrom 116.01 (0) 2. Walker Buehler 92.61 (+1) 3. Zack Wheeler 87.71 (+2) 4. Kevin Gausman 87.11 (-2) 5. Brandon Woodruff 86.56 (-1) 6. Freddy Peralta 83.38 (+1) 7. Corbin Burnes 83.12 (+1) 8. Anthony DeSclafani 81.31 (-2) Honorable Mentions: Max Scherzer, Trevor Rogers Things starting to shake up in the NL. I've adjusted the Predictor for deGrom's injury, currently projecting him to finish the season with 23 starts (which actually feels optimistic). For those wondering, the "crossover point" for deGrom and the rest of the pack is somewhere around 23 GS, 1.50 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. This will be a fun race, and a tough test for the Predictor. So much of what's in the noise here is W/L. We'll get a better idea just how much it matters anymore. Also, my advice: Now's a good time to stock up on Walker Buehler. 2021 AL CY Prediction (as of 7/26/21) 1. Lance Lynn 91.36 (+2) 2. Gerrit Cole 89.28 (-1) 3. Carlos Rodon 87.01 (-1) Honorable Mentions: Chris Bassitt, Robbie Ray Lance Lynn!!! It's basically a 3-man race ... there is clear separation between this trio and the rest of the pack.

07-27-2021, 11:17 AM	#119
LVDan Member Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 17,559	I’d love to see all three Brewers finish top 5. Did that ever happen back in the Braves heyday? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk __________________ So we cheated and we lied and we tested. And we never failed to fail; it was the easiest thing to do.

07-27-2021, 11:30 AM	#120
pspa123 Member Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 3,728	I read where DeGrom claimed his prior injuries this year were all batting related. True? And, tremendous thread. __________________ "We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. We can roll the image, make it flutter. We can change the focus to a soft blur, or sharpen it to crystal clarity." Opening narration, The Outer Limits.

07-27-2021, 11:53 AM	#123
calculusdork Member Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: Nowheresville Posts: 26,683 calculusdork calculusdork	Man, I'm getting old. I completely forgot that Smoltz transitioned back into a starting pitcher after being an elite reliever for 3.5 years. I've always been kinda down on him as a HOF'er (aside from the fairly incredible "only guy with 150 wins and 150 saves" thing), but ... man, he went from elite starter to elite reliever, and then had two more top-10 CY finishes as a 38-year-old and again as a 40-year-old. Was on track to do it again in his age-41 season, but injuries ended it. What a beast.